Screening for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Purpose: This is one of the first studies to report that the Achenbach internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with current comorbid depression and anxiety, rather than individual mood disorder. Introduction: The Achenbach behaviour checklists (YSR,YASR) are widely used, low cost screening tools used to assess problem behaviour. Several studies report good association between the checklists and psychiatric diagnoses; although with varying degrees of agreement. Most are cross-sectional studies involving adolescents referred to mental health services; few are in large community-based studies. This study examined the usefulness of the Achenbach internalising scales in the primary screening (both predictive and concurrent)for depression and anxiety. Methods: The sample was 2400 young adults from an Australian population-based prospective birth cohort study. The association between the empirical anxiety and depression scales were individually assessed against DSM-IV depression and anxiety diagnoses. Odds ratios and diagnostic efficiency tests report the findings. Results: Adolescents with internalising symptoms were twice (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.7 to 3.1) as likely to be diagnosed with later DSM-IV depression. YASR internalising scale predicted DSM-IV mood disorders (depression OR = 6.9, 95% CI 5.0–9.5; anxiety OR = 5.1, 95% CI 3.8–6.7) in the previous 12 months. The internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with comorbid depression and anxiety. Conclusions: Adolescence and early adulthood are key risk periods for the onset of anxiety and depression. This study found that young people with internalising behaviour problems were more likely to have comorbid depression and anxiety DSM-IV disorder.

Building indicators in media assistance; four ways evaluation reports present “change”

The international aid and development community has supported programs that aim to build the capacity of media professionals or contribute to an enabling environment throughout the past 20 years. However, two decades on from the first modern media assistance programs, the sector is still struggling to identify, measure and understand the changes effected by their programs. There are questions raised as to whether it is even feasible to identify impacts on society and governance. This paper draws on some preliminary findings from a comparative thematic analysis of 47 evaluation documents of media assistance programs. The aim of this analysis is to identify trends in impact evaluation practice in the media assistance field, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of different evaluation approaches. This paper presents four types of social change claims commonly presented in reports; hypothetical changes, introduction of new opportunities, concrete examples of immediate impacts, and analysis of ongoing social and political changes. Although these types may appear as a spectrum from weak to strong, the interactions are perhaps more accurately understood using metaphors such as building blocks. This paper explores these types in more detail and suggests that a robust set of impacts-types could be useful in developing more grounded theories of change and indicators.

Association between xenobiotic gene polymorphisms and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma risk

The last four decades have seen a significant increase in the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) as a possible result of increasing environmental carcinogen exposure, particularly pesticides and solvents. Based on the increasing evidence for an association between carcinogen exposure-related cancer risk and xenobiotic gene polymorphisms, we have undertaken a case-control study of xenobiotic gene polymorphisms in individuals with a diagnosis of NHL. Polymorphisms of six xenobiotic genes (CYP1A1, GSTT1, GSTM1, PON1, NAT1, NAT2) were characterized in 169 individuals with NHL and 205 normal controls using polymerase chain reaction-based methods. Polymorphic frequencies were compared using Fisher's exact tests, and odds ratios for NHL risk were calculated. Among the NHL group, the incidence of GSTT1 null and PON1 BB genotypes were significantly increased compared with controls, 34% vs 14%, and 24% vs 11% respectively. Adjusted odds ratios calculated from multivariate analyses demonstrated that GSTT1 null conferred a fourfold increase in NHL risk (OR = 4.27; 95% CI, 2.40-7.61, P < 0.001) and PON1 BB a 2.9-fold increase (OR = 2.92; 95% CI, 1.49-5.72, P = 0.002). Furthermore, GSTT1 null combined with PON1 BB or GSTM1 null conferred an additional risk of NHL. This is the first time that a PON1 gene polymorphism has been shown to be associated with cancer risk. We conclude that the two polymorphisms, GSTT1 null and PON1 BB, are common genetic traits that pose low individual risk but may be important determinants of overall population NHL risk, particularly among groups exposed to NHL-related carcinogens.

The impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy on survival in patients with a history of breast cancer – a population-based data linkage study

Prophylactic surgery including hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is recommended in BRCA positive women, while in women from the general population, hysterectomy plus BSO may increase the risk of overall mortality. The effect of hysterectomy plus BSO on women previously diagnosed with breast cancer is unknown. We used data from a population-base data linkage study of all women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2008 (n=21,067). We fitted flexible parametric breast cancer specific and overall survival models with 95% confidence intervals (also known as Royston-Parmar models) to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery (removal of uterus, one or both ovaries). We also stratified analyses by age 20-49 and 50-79 years, respectively. Overall, 1,426 women (7%) underwent risk-reducing surgery (13% of premenopausal women and 3% of postmenopausal women). No women who had risk-reducing surgery, compared to 171 who did not have risk-reducing surgery developed a gynaecological cancer. Overall, 3,165 (15%) women died, including 2,195 (10%) from breast cancer. Hysterectomy plus BSO was associated with significantly reduced risk of death overall (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89; P =0.005). Risk reduction was greater among premenopausal women, whose risk of death halved (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.79; P < 0.006). This was largely driven by reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.79; P < 0.006). This population-based study found that risk-reducing surgery halved the mortality risk for premenopausal breast cancer patients. Replication of our results in independent cohorts, and subsequently randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings.

The double risk of primitivism

This essay examines the possibilities for practices that appeal to the primitive in the contemporary cultural context. The idea of the primitive is driven by a desire to challenge the limitations of Western culture, while at the same time attracting the charge of promoting Eurocentrism. This essay investigates this double risk and how artists have sought to evade it, confound it, or accentuate it.

Road crash risk after whiplash associated disorder

The future on-road safety of drivers affected by Whiplash Associated Disorder (WAD), the most common soft-tissue injury suffered in a traffic crash, has not been extensively explored. We obtained an anonymised file of 4280 insurance claimants with WAD and, as controls, 1116 claimants with comparably severe soft-tissue injuries who are considered to be at no increased risk than the general population. Their demographic information, road user type and traffic crash records both prior and subsequent to the traffic incident in which the injury occurred, the index crash, were obtained. Rates of subsequent crash involvement in these two groups were then compared, adjusting for age, sex, road user type and prior crash experience. The risk of a subsequent crash in the WAD group relative to controls was 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.87–1.48). To allow for differentially altered driving exposure after index crash we distributed a brief survey asking about changes in driving habits after a traffic crash involving injury via physiotherapy clinics and online through the electronic newsletter of a local motoring organisation. The survey yielded responses from 113 drivers who had experienced WAD in a traffic crash and 53 with other soft tissue injuries. There were no differences on average between the groups in their prior driving levels or their percentage change therein at one, three or six months after injury. There was thus no evidence that drivers with WAD are at any higher safety risk than drivers with other types of relatively minor post-crash soft tissue injury.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

OBJECTIVE The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002-2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. METHODS Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002-2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003-2005; 2006; and 2007-2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. RESULTS JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. CONCLUSION JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices to reduce exposure among residents living near Danang dioxin hot spot : 2.5 years after a preventative intervention

Da Nang Airbase in Viet Nam served as a bulk storage and supply facility for Agent Orange and other herbicides during Operation Ranch Hand 1961-1971[1]. Studies have shown that environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase site have elevated levels of dioxin [1-3]. Residents living in the vicinity of the airbase are at risk of exposure to dioxin in soil, water and mud and particularly through the consumption of local contaminated food. In 2009, a pre-intervention cross sectional survey was undertaken. This survey examined the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of householders living near Da Nang Airbase, relevent to reducing dioxin exposure through contaminated food. The results showed that despite living near a severe dioxin hot spot, the residents had very limited knowledge of both exposure risk and measures to reduce exposure to dioxin[4]. In response, the Vietnam Public Health Association (VPHA) and Da Nang Public Health Association implemented a risk reduction program at four residential wards in the vicinities of the Da Nang Airbase in 2010. A post intervention KAP survey was under taken in 2011, and the results showed that knowledge of the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods, and preventive measures was significantly enhanced. This new study monitored KAP 2.5 years after the intervention through a 2013 survey of food handlers from 400 households that were randomly selected from the four intervention wards. The results show that most of the positive outcomes remained stable or had increased; some KAP indicators decreased compared to those in the post-intervention survey, but were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels. In 2014, these findings will be incorporated with qualitative assessments and the results of laboratory analysis of dioxin concentrations in foods in Da Nang and Bien Hoa dioxin hot spots to comprehensively assess the sustained effects of the intervention.

A comparative analysis of risk stratification tools for emergency department patients with chest pain

Background: Appropriate disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain is dependent on clinical evaluation of risk. A number of chest pain risk stratification tools have been proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using risk assessment tools from the National Heart Foundation of Australia (HFA), the Goldman risk score and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score (TIMI RS). Methods: This prospective observational study evaluated ED patients aged ≥30 years with non-traumatic chest pain for which no definitive non-ischemic cause was found. Data collected included demographic and clinical information, investigation findings and occurrence of MACE by 30 days. The outcome of interest was the comparative predictive performance of the risk tools for MACE at 30 days, as analyzed by receiver operator curves (ROC). Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were studied; the rate of MACE was 14.1%. Area under the curve (AUC) of the HFA, TIMI RS and Goldman tools for the endpoint of MACE was 0.54, 0.71 and 0.67, respectively, with the difference between the tools in predictive ability for MACE being highly significant [chi2 (3) = 67.21, N = 276, p < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The TIMI RS and Goldman tools performed better than the HFA in this undifferentiated ED chest pain population, but selection of cutoffs balancing sensitivity and specificity was problematic. There is an urgent need for validated risk stratification tools specific for the ED chest pain population.

Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness is associated with higher risk of foot ulceration in diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To evaluate the association between retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and diabetic peripheral neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes, and specifically those at higher risk of foot ulceration. Methods RNFL thicknesses was measured globally and in four quadrants (temporal, superior, nasal and inferior) at 3.45 mm diameter around the optic nerve head using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Severity of neuropathy was assessed using the Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS). Eighty-two participants with type 2 diabetes were stratified according to NDS scores (0-10) as: none, mild, moderate, and severe neuropathy. A control group was additionally included (n=17). Individuals with NDS≥ 6 (moderate and severe neuropathy) have been shown to be at higher risk of foot ulceration. A linear regression model was used to determine the association between RNFL and severity of neuropathy. Age, disease duration and diabetic retinopathy levels were fitted in the models. Independent t-test was employed for comparison between controls and the group without neuropathy, as well as for comparison between groups with higher and lower risk of foot ulceration. Analysis of variance was used to compare across all NDS groups. Results RNFL thickness was significantly associated with NDS in the inferior quadrant (b= -1.46, p=0.03). RNFL thicknesses globally and in superior, temporal and nasal quadrants did not show significant associations with NDS (all p>0.51). These findings were independent of the effect of age, disease duration and retinopathy. RNFL was thinner for the group with NDS ≥ 6 in all quadrants but was significant only inferiorly (p<0.005). RNFL for control participants was not significantly different from the group with diabetes and no neuropathy (superior p=0.07, global and all other quadrants: p>0.23). Mean RNFL thickness was not significantly different between the four NDS groups globally and in all quadrants (p=0.08 for inferior, P>0.14 for all other comparisons). Conclusions Retinal nerve fibre layer thinning is associated with neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes. This relationship is strongest in the inferior retina and in individuals at higher risk of foot ulceration.

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over eight days to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking, and found that participants became more risk averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an under-appreciated cause of market instability.

Polymorphisms in inflammation pathway genes and endometrial cancer risk

BACKGROUND Experimental and epidemiologic evidence have suggested that chronic inflammation may play a critical role in endometrial carcinogenesis. METHODS To investigate this hypothesis, a two-stage study was carried out to evaluate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in inflammatory pathway genes in association with endometrial cancer risk. In stage I, 64 candidate pathway genes were identified and 4,542 directly genotyped or imputed SNPs were analyzed among 832 endometrial cancer cases and 2,049 controls, using data from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study. Linkage disequilibrium of stage I SNPs significantly associated with endometrial cancer (P < 0.05) indicated that the majority of associations could be linked to one of 24 distinct loci. One SNP from each of the 24 loci was then selected for follow-up genotyping. Of these, 21 SNPs were successfully designed and genotyped in stage II, which consisted of 10 additional studies including 6,604 endometrial cancer cases and 8,511 controls. RESULTS Five of the 21 SNPs had significant allelic odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) as follows: FABP1, 0.92 (0.85-0.99); CXCL3, 1.16 (1.05-1.29); IL6, 1.08 (1.00-1.17); MSR1, 0.90 (0.82-0.98); and MMP9, 0.91 (0.87-0.97). Two of these polymorphisms were independently significant in the replication sample (rs352038 in CXCL3 and rs3918249 in MMP9). The association for the MMP9 polymorphism remained significant after Bonferroni correction and showed a significant association with endometrial cancer in both Asian- and European-ancestry samples. CONCLUSIONS These findings lend support to the hypothesis that genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in the inflammatory pathway may contribute to genetic susceptibility to endometrial cancer. Impact statement: This study adds to the growing evidence that inflammation plays an important role in endometrial carcinogenesis.