Genome-wide association study identifies five new schizophrenia loci

We examined the role of common genetic variation in schizophrenia in a genome-wide association study of substantial size: a stage 1 discovery sample of 21,856 individuals of European ancestry and a stage 2 replication sample of 29,839 independent subjects. The combined stage 1 and 2 analysis yielded genome-wide significant associations with schizophrenia for seven loci, five of which are new (1p21.3, 2q32.3, 8p23.2, 8q21.3 and 10q24.32-q24.33) and two of which have been previously implicated (6p21.32-p22.1 and 18q21.2). The strongest new finding (P = 1.6 × 10 -11) was with rs1625579 within an intron of a putative primary transcript for MIR137 (microRNA 137), a known regulator of neuronal development. Four other schizophrenia loci achieving genome-wide significance contain predicted targets of MIR137, suggesting MIR137-mediated dysregulation as a previously unknown etiologic mechanism in schizophrenia. In a joint analysis with a bipolar disorder sample (16,374 affected individuals and 14,044 controls), three loci reached genome-wide significance: CACNA1C (rs4765905, P = 7.0 × 10 -9), ANK3 (rs10994359, P = 2.5 × 10 -8) and the ITIH3-ITIH4 region (rs2239547, P = 7.8 × 10 -9).

Characteristics of on-road driving by persons with central vision loss: Learning to drive with a bioptic telescope

There is limited research on the driving performance and safety of bioptic drivers and even less regarding the driving skills that are most challenging for those learning to drive with bioptic telescopes. This research consisted of case studies of five trainee bioptic drivers whose driving skills were compared with those of a group of licensed bioptic drivers (n = 23) while they drove along city, suburban, and controlled-access highways in an instrumented dual-brake vehicle. A certified driver rehabilitation specialist was positioned in the front passenger seat to monitor safety and two backseat evaluators independently rated driving using a standardized scoring system. Other aspects of performance were assessed through vehicle instrumentation and video recordings. Results demonstrate that while sign recognition, lane keeping, steering steadiness, gap judgments and speed choices were significantly worse in trainees, some driving behaviors and skills, including pedestrian detection and traffic light recognition were not significantly different to those of the licensed drivers. These data provide useful insights into the skill challenges encountered by a small sample of trainee bioptic drivers which, while not generalizable because of the small sample size, provide valuable insights beyond that of previous studies and can be used as a basis to guide training strategies.

Study of carotid arterial plaque stress for symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death in the world, resulting mostly from the sudden ruptures of atherosclerosis carotid plaques. Until now, the exact plaque rupture mechanism has not been fully understood, and also the plaque rupture risk stratification. The advanced multi-spectral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has allowed the plaque components to be visualized in-vivo and reconstructed by computational modeling. In the study, plaque stress analysis using fully coupled fluid structure interaction was applied to 20 patients (12 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic) reconstructed from in-vivo MRI, followed by a detailed biomechanics analysis, and morphological feature study. The locally extreme stress conditions can be found in the fibrous cap region, 85% at the plaque shoulder based on the present study cases. Local maximum stress values predicted in the plaque region were found to be significantly higher in symptomatic patients than that in asymptomatic patients (200±43. kPa vs. 127±37. kPa, p=0.001). Plaque stress level, defined by excluding 5% highest stress nodes in the fibrous cap region based on the accumulative histogram of stress experienced on the computational nodes in the fibrous cap, was also significantly higher in symptomatic patients than that in asymptomatic patients (154±32. kPa vs. 111±23. kPa, p<0.05). Although there was no significant difference in lipid core size between the two patient groups, symptomatic group normally had a larger lipid core and a significantly thinner fibrous cap based on the reconstructed plaques using 3D interpolation from stacks of 2D contours. Plaques with a higher stenosis were more likely to have extreme stress conditions upstream of plaque throat. The combined analyses of plaque MR image and plaque stress will advance our understanding of plaque rupture, and provide a useful tool on assessing plaque rupture risk.

Atheroma: Is calcium important or not? A modelling study of stress within the atheromatous fibrous cap in relation to position and size of calcium deposits

Atheromatous plaque rupture h the cause of the majority of strokes and heart attacks in the developed world. The role of calcium deposits and their contribution to plaque vulnerability are controversial. Some studies have suggested that calcified plaque tends to be more stable whereas others have suggested the opposite. This study uses a finite element model to evaluate the effect of calcium deposits on the stress within the fibrous cap by varying their location and size. Plaque fibrous cap, lipid pool and calcification were modeled as hyperelastic, Isotropic, (nearly) incompressible materials with different properties for large deformation analysis by assigning time-dependent pressure loading on the lumen wall. The stress and strain contours were illustrated for each condition for comparison. Von Mises stress only increases up to 1.5% when varying the location of calcification in the lipid pool distant to the fibrous cap. Calcification in the fibrous cap leads to a 43% increase of Von Mises stress when compared with that in the lipid pool. An increase of 100% of calcification area leads to a 15% stress increase in the fibrous cap. Calcification in the lipid pool does not increase fibrous cap stress when it is distant to the fibrous cap, whilst large areas of calcification close to or in the fibrous cap may lead to a high stress concentration within the fibrous cap, which may cause plaque rupture. This study highlights the application of a computational model on a simulation of clinical problems, and it may provide insights into the mechanism of plaque rupture.

Model selection with misspecified spatial covariance structure

Spatial data analysis has become more and more important in the studies of ecology and economics during the last decade. One focus of spatial data analysis is how to select predictors, variance functions and correlation functions. However, in general, the true covariance function is unknown and the working covariance structure is often misspecified. In this paper, our target is to find a good strategy to identify the best model from the candidate set using model selection criteria. This paper is to evaluate the ability of some information criteria (corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and residual information criterion (RIC)) for choosing the optimal model when the working correlation function, the working variance function and the working mean function are correct or misspecified. Simulations are carried out for small to moderate sample sizes. Four candidate covariance functions (exponential, Gaussian, Matern and rational quadratic) are used in simulation studies. With the summary in simulation results, we find that the misspecified working correlation structure can still capture some spatial correlation information in model fitting. When the sample size is large enough, BIC and RIC perform well even if the the working covariance is misspecified. Moreover, the performance of these information criteria is related to the average level of model fitting which can be indicated by the average adjusted R square ( [GRAPHICS] ), and overall RIC performs well.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Statistical power calculation and sample size determination for environmental studies with data below detection limits

Power calculation and sample size determination are critical in designing environmental monitoring programs. The traditional approach based on comparing the mean values may become statistically inappropriate and even invalid when substantial proportions of the response values are below the detection limits or censored because strong distributional assumptions have to be made on the censored observations when implementing the traditional procedures. In this paper, we propose a quantile methodology that is robust to outliers and can also handle data with a substantial proportion of below-detection-limit observations without the need of imputing the censored values. As a demonstration, we applied the methods to a nutrient monitoring project, which is a part of the Perth Long-Term Ocean Outlet Monitoring Program. In this example, the sample size required by our quantile methodology is, in fact, smaller than that by the traditional t-test, illustrating the merit of our method.

An extravariation model for improving confidence intervals of population size estimates from removal data

We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).

Size-dependent natural mortality of juvenile banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Natural mortality of marine invertebrates is often very high in the early life history stages and decreases in later stages. The possible size-dependent mortality of juvenile banana prawns, P. merguiensis (2-15 mm carapace length) in the Gulf of Carpentaria was investigated. The analysis was based on the data collected at 2-weekly intervals by beam trawls at four sites over a period of six years (between September 1986 and March 1992). It was assumed that mortality was a parametric function of size, rather than a constant. Another complication in estimating mortality for juvenile banana prawns is that a significant proportion of the population emigrates from the study area each year. This effect was accounted for by incorporating the size-frequency pattern of the emigrants in the analysis. Both the extra parameter in the model required to describe the size dependence of mortality, and that used to account for emigration were found to be significantly different from zero, and the instantaneous mortality rate declined from 0.89 week(-1) for 2 mm prawns to 0.02 week(-1) for 15 mm prawns.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were "rare" in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the "rare" species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the "abundant" species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

Community-based social marketing: Effects on social norms

Purpose This research investigates whether application of a community-based social marketing principle, namely increasing the visibility of a target behaviour in the community, can change social norms surrounding the behaviour. Design/methodology/approach A repeated measures quasi-experimental design was employed to evaluate the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation’s Walk to School 2013 programme, which increases the visibility of walking to and from school through programme participation to promote active transportation for primary school children. The target population for the survey were caregivers of primary school children aged between 5-12 years old. The final sample size across the three online surveys administered was 102 respondents. Findings The results suggest that the programme increased caregivers’ perceptions that children in their community walked to and from school and that walking to and from school is socially acceptable. Originality/value The study contributes to addressing the recent call for research examining the relationship between community-based social marketing principles and programme outcomes. Further, the results provide insight for enhancing the social norms approach, which has traditionally relied on changing social norms exclusively through media campaigns.

Mandatory nap times and group napping patterns in child care: An observational study

Policy provision for naps is typical in child care settings, but there is variability in the practices employed. One practice that might modify children’s early sleep patterns is the allocation of a mandatory nap time in which all children are required to lie on their beds without alternate activity permitted. There is currently limited evidence of the effects of such practices on children’s napping patterns. This study examined the association between duration of mandatory nap times and group-level napping patterns in child care settings. Observations were undertaken in a community sample of 113 preschool rooms with a scheduled nap time (N = 2,114 children). Results showed that 83.5% of child care settings implemented a mandatory nap time (range = 15–145 min) while 14.2% provided alternate activities for children throughout the nap time period. Overall, 31% of children napped during nap times. Compared to rooms with ≤ 30 min of mandatory nap time, rooms with 31–60 min and > 60 min of mandatory nap time had a two-and-a-half and fourfold increase, respectively, in the proportion of children napping. Nap onset latency did not significantly differ across groups. Among preschool children, exposure to longer mandatory nap times in child care may increase incidence of napping.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance in children receiving nucleoside analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus nevirapine, nelfinavir, or ritonavir (Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377)

In Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377, antiretroviral therapy-experienced children were randomized to 4 treatment arms that included different combinations of stavudine, lamivudine (3TC), nevirapine (Nvp), nelfinavir (Nfv), and ritonavir (Rtv). Previous treatment with zidovudine (Zdv), didanosine (ddI), or zalcitabine (ddC) was acceptable. Drug resistance ((R)) mutations were assessed before study treatment (baseline) and at virologic failure. Zdv(R), ddI(R), and ddC(R) mutations were detected frequently at baseline but were not associated with virologic failure. Children with drug resistance mutations at baseline had greater reductions in virus load over time than did children who did not. Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations were detected frequently at virologic failure, and Nvp(R) mutations were more common among children receiving 3-drug versus 4-drug Nvp-containing regimens. Children who were maintained on their study regimen after virologic failure accumulated additional Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations plus Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations. However, Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations were detected at unexpectedly low rates.