A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

A commentary on the global position of South African accounting research

The South African designation of Chartered Accountant is comparable to similar designations in most developed countries. However, the research outputs of Accountancy academics in South Africa seem to lag far behind those of their counterparts abroad. This article discusses the results of several inquiries into the status of South African Accounting research in a global context, and identifies several reasons and possible remedies for low research output.

Reliability and criterion-related validity with a smartphone used in timed-up-and-go test

Background The capacity to diagnosys, quantify and evaluate movement beyond the general confines of a clinical environment under effectiveness conditions may alleviate rampant strain on limited, expensive and highly specialized medical resources. An iPhone 4® mounted a three dimensional accelerometer subsystem with highly robust software applications. The present study aimed to evaluate the reliability and concurrent criterion-related validity of the accelerations with an iPhone 4® in an Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Extended Timed Get Up and Go is a clinical test with that the patient get up from the chair and walking ten meters, turn and coming back to the chair. Methods A repeated measure, cross-sectional, analytical study. Test-retest reliability of the kinematic measurements of the iPhone 4® compared with a standard validated laboratory device. We calculated the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation between the two sensors acceleration signal of each subject, in each sub-stage, in each of the three Extended Timed Get Up and Go test trials. To investigate statistical agreement between the two sensors we used the Bland-Altman method. Results With respect to the analysis of the correlation data in the present work, the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation of the five subjects in their triplicated trials were as follows: in sub-phase Sit to Stand the ranged between r = 0.991 to 0.842; in Gait Go, r = 0.967 to 0.852; in Turn, 0.979 to 0.798; in Gait Come, 0.964 to 0.887; and in Turn to Stand to Sit, 0.992 to 0.877. All the correlations between the sensors were significant (p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman plots obtained showed a solid tendency to stay at close to zero, especially on the y and x-axes, during the five phases of the Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Conclusions The inertial sensor mounted in the iPhone 4® is sufficiently reliable and accurate to evaluate and identify the kinematic patterns in an Extended Timed Get and Go test. While analysis and interpretation of 3D kinematics data continue to be dauntingly complex, the iPhone 4® makes the task of acquiring the data relatively inexpensive and easy to use.

Indoor air: Contemporary sources, exposures and global implications

Recent 'Global Burden of Disease' studies have provided quantitative evidence of the significant role air pollution plays as a human health risk factor (Lim et al., The Lancet, 380: 2224–2260, 2012). Tobacco smoke, including second hand smoke, household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient particulate matter are among the top risks, leading to lower life expectancy around the world. Indoor air constitutes an environment particularly rich in different types of pollutants, originating from indoor sources, as well as penetrating from outdoors, mixing, interacting or growing (when considering microbes) under the protective enclosure of the building envelope. Therefore, it is not a simple task to follow the dynamics of the processes occurring there, or to quantify the outcomes of the processes in terms of pollutant concentrations and other characteristics. This is further complicated by limitations such as building access for the purpose of air quality monitoring, or the instrumentation which can be used indoors, because of their possible interference with the occupants comfort (due to their large size, noise generated or amount of air drawn). European studies apportioned contributions of indoor versus outdoor sources of indoor air contaminants in 26 European countries and quantified IAQ associated DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in those countries (Jantunen et al., Promoting actions for healthy indoor air (IAIAQ), European Commission Directorate General for Health and Consumers, Luxembourg, 2011). At the same time, there has been an increase in research efforts around the world to better understand the sources, composition, dynamics and impacts of indoor air pollution. Particular focus has been directed towards the contemporary sources, novel pollutants and new detection methods. The importance of exposure assessment and personal exposure, the majority of which occurs in various indoor micro¬environments, has also been realized. Overall, this emerging knowledge has been providing input for global assessments of indoor environments, the impact of indoor pollutants and their science based management and control. It was a major outcome of recent international conferences that interdisciplinarity and especially a better colla¬boration between exposure and indoor sciences would be of high benefit for the health related evaluation of environmental stress factors and pollutants. A very good example is the combination of biomonitoring and indoor air, particle and dust analysis to study the exposure routes of semi volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). We have adopted the idea of combining the forces of exposure and indoor sciences for this Special Issue, identified new and challenging topics and have attracted colleagues who are top researchers in their field to provide their inputs. The Special Issue includes papers, which collectively present advances in current research topics and in our view, build the bridge between indoor and exposure sciences.

Comparison of kinematic variables obtained by inertial sensors among stroke survivors and healthy older adults in the Functional Reach Test: cross-sectional study

Background Balance dysfunction is one of the most common problems in people who suffer stroke. To parameterize functional tests standardized by inertial sensors have been promoted in applied medicine. The aim of this study was to compare the kinematic variables of the Functional Reach Test (FRT) obtained by two inertial sensors placed on the trunk and lumbar region between stroke survivors (SS) and healthy older adults (HOA) and to analyze the reliability of the kinematic measurements obtained. Methods Cross-sectional study. Five SS and five HOA over 65. A descriptive analysis of the average range as well as all kinematic variables recorded was developed. The intrasubject and intersubject reliability of the measured variables was directly calculated. Results In the same intervals, the angular displacement was greater in the HOA group; however, they were completed at similar times for both groups, and HOA conducted the test at a higher speed and greater acceleration in each of the intervals. The SS values were higher than HOA values in the maximum and minimum acceleration in the trunk and in the lumbar region. Conclusions The SS show less functional reach, a narrower, slower and less accelerated movement during the FRT execution, but with higher peaks of acceleration and speed when they are compared with HOA.

Art museums and the global tourist: Experience centres in experience-scapes

In the experience economy, the role of art museums has evolved so as to cater to global cultural tourists. These institutions were traditionally dedicated to didactic functions, and served cognoscenti with elite cultural tastes that were aligned with the avant-garde’s autonomous stance towards mass culture. In a post-avant-garde era however museums have focused on appealing to a broad clientele that often has little or no knowledge of historical or contemporary art. Many of these tourists want art to provide entertaining and novel experiences, rather than receiving pedagogical ‘training’. In response, art museums are turning into ‘experience venues’ and are being informed by ideas associated with new museology, as well as business approaches like Customer Experience Management. This has led to the provision of populist entertainment modes, such as blockbuster exhibitions, participatory art events, jazz nights, and wine tasting, and reveals that such museums recognize that today’s cultural tourist is part of an increasingly diverse and populous demographic, which shares many languages and value systems. As art museums have shifted attention to global tourists, they have come to play a greater role in gentrification projects and cultural precincts. The art museum now seems ideally suited to tourist-centric environments that offer a variety of immersive sensory experiences and combine museums (often designed by star-architects), international hotels, restaurants, high-end shopping zones, and other leisure forums. These include sites such as Port Maravilha urban waterfront development in Rio de Janiero, the Museum of Old and New Art in Hobart, and the Chateau La Coste winery and hotel complex in Provence. It can be argued that in a global experience economy, art museums have become experience centres in experience-scapes. This paper will examine the nature of the tourist experience in relation to the new art museum, and the latter’s increasingly important role in attracting tourists to urban and regional cultural precincts.

Intellectual property and global warming: Climate justice

Engaging in a close analysis of legal and political discourse, this chapter considers conflicts over intellectual property and climate change in three key arenas: climate law; trade law; and intellectual property law. In this chapter, it is argued that there is a need to overcome the political stalemates and deadlocks over intellectual property and climate change. It is essential that intellectual property law engage in a substantive fashion with the matrix of issues surrounding fossil fuels, clean technologies, and climate change at an international level. First, this chapter examines the debate over intellectual property and climate change under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992, and the establishment of the UNFCCC Climate Technology Centre and Network. It recommends that the technology mechanism should address and deal with matters of intellectual property management and policy. Second, the piece examines the discussion of global issues in the World Intellectual Property Organization, WIPO GREEN. It supports the proposal for a Global Green Patent Highway to allow for the fast-tracking of intellectual property applications in respect of green technologies. Third, the chapter investigates the dispute in the TRIPS Council at the World Trade Organization over intellectual property, climate change, and development. This section focuses upon the TRIPS Agreement 1994. This chapter calls for a Joint Declaration on Intellectual Property and Climate Change from the UNFCCC, WIPO, and the WTO. The paper concludes that intellectual property should be reformed as part of a larger effort to promote climate justice. Rather than adopt a fragmented, piecemeal approach in various international institutions, there is a need for a co-ordinated and cohesive response to intellectual property in an age of runaway, global climate change. Patent law should be fossil fuel free. Intellectual property should encourage research, development, and diffusion of renewable energy and clean technologies. It is submitted that intellectual property law reform should promote climate justice in line with Mary Robinson’s Declaration on Climate Justice 2013.

Structural identification of a laboratory-based steel through truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS)

Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.

Parameterization and reliability of single-leg balance test assessed with inertial sensors in stroke survivors: a cross-sectional study

Background and purpose There are no published studies on the parameterisation and reliability of the single-leg stance (SLS) test with inertial sensors in stroke patients. Purpose: to analyse the reliability (intra-observer/inter-observer) and sensitivity of inertial sensors used for the SLS test in stroke patients. Secondary objective: to compare the records of the two inertial sensors (trunk and lumbar) to detect any significant differences in the kinematic data obtained in the SLS test. Methods Design: cross-sectional study. While performing the SLS test, two inertial sensors were placed at lumbar (L5-S1) and trunk regions (T7–T8). Setting: Laboratory of Biomechanics (Health Science Faculty - University of Málaga). Participants: Four chronic stroke survivors (over 65 yrs old). Measurement: displacement and velocity, Rotation (X-axis), Flexion/Extension (Y-axis), Inclination (Z-axis); Resultant displacement and velocity (V): RV=(Vx2+Vy2+Vz2)−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−√ Along with SLS kinematic variables, descriptive analyses, differences between sensors locations and intra-observer and inter-observer reliability were also calculated. Results Differences between the sensors were significant only for left inclination velocity (p = 0.036) and extension displacement in the non-affected leg with eyes open (p = 0.038). Intra-observer reliability of the trunk sensor ranged from 0.889-0.921 for the displacement and 0.849-0.892 for velocity. Intra-observer reliability of the lumbar sensor was between 0.896-0.949 for the displacement and 0.873-0.894 for velocity. Inter-observer reliability of the trunk sensor was between 0.878-0.917 for the displacement and 0.847-0.884 for velocity. Inter-observer reliability of the lumbar sensor ranged from 0.870-0.940 for the displacement and 0.863-0.884 for velocity. Conclusion There were no significant differences between the kinematic records made by an inertial sensor during the development of the SLS testing between two inertial sensors placed in the lumbar and thoracic regions. In addition, inertial sensors. Have the potential to be reliable, valid and sensitive instruments for kinematic measurements during SLS testing but further research is needed.

Mobile Romberg test assessment (mRomberg)

Background The diagnosis of frailty is based on physical impairments and clinicians have indicated that early detection is one of the most effective methods for reducing the severity of physical frailty. Maybe, an alternative to the classical diagnosis could be the instrumentalization of classical functional testing, as Romberg test or Timed Get Up and Go Test. The aim of this study was (I) to measure and describe the magnitude of accelerometry values in the Romberg test in two groups of frail and non-frail elderly people through instrumentation with the iPhone 4®, (II) to analyse the performances and differences between the study groups, and (III) to analyse the performances and differences within study groups to characterise accelerometer responses to increasingly difficult challenges to balance. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 18 subjects over 70 years old, 9 frail subjects and 9 non-frail subjects. The non-parametric Mann–Whitney U test was used for between-group comparisons in means values derived from different tasks. The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test was used to analyse differences between different variants of the test in both independent study groups. Results The highest difference between groups was found in the accelerometer values with eyes closed and feet parallel: maximum peak acceleration in the lateral axis (p < 0.01), minimum peak acceleration in the lateral axis (p < 0.01) and minimum peak acceleration from the resultant vector (p < 0.01). Subjects with eyes open and feet parallel, greatest differences found between the groups were in the maximum peak acceleration in the lateral axis (p < 0.01), minimum peak acceleration in the lateral axis (p < 0.01) and minimum peak acceleration from the resultant vector (p < 0.001). With eyes closed and feet in tandem, the greatest differences found between the groups were in the minimum peak acceleration in the lateral axis (p < 0.01). Conclusions The accelerometer fitted in the iPhone 4® is able to study and analyse the kinematics of the Romberg test between frail and non-frail elderly people. In addition, the results indicate that the accelerometry values also were significantly different between the frail and non-frail groups, and that values from the accelerometer accelerometer increased as the test was made more complicated.

Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test: A review

We review studies of Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) that have examined the performance of subjects with frontal lobe dysfunction. Six studies investigated the performance of normal controls and patients with frontal lobe dysfunction, whereas four studies compared the performance of frontal and nonfrontal patients. One further study compared the performance of amnesic patients both on the MCST and on the original Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). Evidence regarding the MCST's differential sensitivity to frontal lobe dysfunction is weak, as is the evidence regarding the equivalence of the MCST and WCST. It is likely that the MCST is an altogether different test from the standard version. In the absence of proper normative data for the MCST, we provide a table of scores derived from the control groups of various studies. Given the paucity of evidence, further research is required before the MCST can be recommended for use as a marker of frontal lobe dysfunction.

The modified card sorting test: Test-retest stability and relationships with demographic variables in a healthy older adult sample

Objectives. To investigate the test-retest stability of a standardized version of Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) and its relationships with demographic variables in a sample of healthy older adults. Design. A standard card order and administration were devised for the MCST and administered to participants at an initial assessment, and again at a second session conducted a minimum of six months later in order to examine its test-retest stability. Participants were also administered the WAIS-R at initial assessment in order to provide a measure of psychometric intelligence. Methods. Thirty-six (24 female, 12 male) healthy older adults aged 52 to 77 years with mean education 12.42 years (SD = 3.53) completed the MCST on two occasions approximately 7.5 months (SD = 1.61) apart. Stability coefficients and test-retest differences were calculated for the range of scores. The effect of gender on MCST performance was examined. Correlations between MCST scores and age, education and WAIS-R IQs were also determined. Results. Stability coefficients ranged from .26 for the percent perseverative errors measure to .49 for the failure to maintain set measure. Several measures were significantly correlated with age, education and WAIS-R IQs, although no effect of gender on MCST performance was found. Conclusions. None of the stability coefficients reached the level required for clinical decision making. The results indicate that participants' age, education, and intelligence need to be considered when interpreting MCST performance. Normative studies of MCST performance as well as further studies with patients with executive dysfunction are needed.

Combining meta- and mega-analytic approaches for multi-site diffusion imaging based genetic studies: From the enigma-DTI working group

Meta-analyses estimate a statistical effect size for a test or an analysis by combining results from multiple studies without necessarily having access to each individual study's raw data. Multi-site meta-analysis is crucial for imaging genetics, as single sites rarely have a sample size large enough to pick up effects of single genetic variants associated with brain measures. However, if raw data can be shared, combining data in a "mega-analysis" is thought to improve power and precision in estimating global effects. As part of an ENIGMA-DTI investigation, we use fractional anisotropy (FA) maps from 5 studies (total N=2, 203 subjects, aged 9-85) to estimate heritability. We combine the studies through meta-and mega-analyses as well as a mixture of the two - combining some cohorts with mega-analysis and meta-analyzing the results with those of the remaining sites. A combination of mega-and meta-approaches may boost power compared to meta-analysis alone.

Effect of bond length on the behaviour of CFRP strengthened concrete-filled steel tubes under transverse impact

Concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns have shown great potential as axial load carrying member and used widely in many mission critical infrastructures. However, attention is needed to strengthen these members where transverse impact force is expected to occur due to vehicle collisions. In this work, finite element (FE) model of carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthened CFST columns are developed and the effect of CFRP bond length is investigated under transverse impact loading. Initially the numerical models have been validated by comparing impact test results from literature. The validated models are then used for detail parametric studies by varying the length of externally bonded CFRP composites. The parameters considered for this research are impact velocity, impact mass, CFRP modulus, adhesive type, and axial static loading. It has been observed that the effect of CFRP strengthening is consistent after an optimum effective bond length of CFRP wrapping. The effect of effective bond length has been studied for above parameters. The results show that, under combined axial static and transverse impact loads CFST columns can successfully prevent global buckling failure by strengthening only 34% of column length. Therefore, estimation of effective bond length is essential to utilise the CFRP composites cost effectively.