The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Pre-Admission and Post-Hospital Management of Heart Failure in Patients not Enrolled in Specialist Programs

Aim: To review the management of heart failure in patients not enrolled in specialist multidisciplinary programs. Method: A prospective clinical audit of patients admitted to hospital with either a current or past diagnosis of heart failure and not enrolled in a specialist heart failure program or under the direct care of the cardiology unit. Results: 81 eligible patients were enrolled (1 August to 1 October 2008). The median age was 81 9.4 years and 48% were male. Most patients (63%) were in New York Heart Association Class II or Class III heart failure. On discharge, 59% of patients were prescribed angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and 43% were prescribed beta-blockers. During hospitalisation, 8.6% of patients with a past diagnosis of heart failure were started on an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor and 4.9% on a beta-blocker. There was evidence of suboptimal dosage on admission and discharge for angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (19% and 7.4%) and beta-blockers (29% and 17%). The results compared well with international reports regarding the under-treatment of heart failure. Conclusion: The demonstrated practice gap provides excellent opportunities for the involvement of pharmacists to improve the continuation of care for heart failure patients discharged from hospital in the areas of medication management review, dose titration and monitoring.