Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Process quality indicators targeting cognitive impairment to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The objective of this study was to develop process quality indicators (PQIs) to support the improvement of care services for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (ED). Methods A structured research approach was taken for the development of PQIs for the care of older people with cognitive impairment in EDs, including combining available evidence with expert opinion (phase 1), a field study (phase 2), and formal voting (phase 3). A systematic review of the literature identified ED processes targeting the specific care needs of older people with cognitive impairment. Existing relevant PQIs were also included. By integrating the scientific evidence and clinical expertise, new PQIs were drafted and, along with the existing PQIs, extensively discussed by an advisory panel. These indicators were field tested in eight hospitals using a cohort of older persons aged 70 years and older. After analysis of the field study data (indicator prevalence, variability across sites), in a second meeting, the advisory panel further defined the PQIs. The advisory panel formally voted for selection of those PQIs that were most appropriate for care evaluation. Results In addition to seven previously published PQIs relevant to the care of older persons, 15 new indicators were created. These 22 PQIs were then field tested. PQIs designed specifically for the older ED population with cognitive impairment were only scored for patients with identified cognitive impairment. Following formal voting, a total of 11 PQIs were included in the set. These PQIs targeted cognitive screening, delirium screening, delirium risk assessment, evaluation of acute change in mental status, delirium etiology, proxy notification, collateral history, involvement of a nominated support person, pain assessment, postdischarge follow-up, and ED length of stay. Conclusions This article presents a set of PQIs for the evaluation of the care for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs. The variation in indicator triggering across different ED sites suggests that there are opportunities for quality improvement in care for this vulnerable group. Applied PQIs will identify an emergency services' implementation of care strategies for cognitively impaired older ED patients. Awareness of the PQI triggers at an ED level enables implementation of targeted interventions to improve any suboptimal processes of care. Further validation and utility of the indicators in a wider population is now indicated.

Structural quality indicators to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The purpose of this study was to identify the structural quality of care domains and to establish a set of structural quality indicators (SQIs) for the assessment of care of older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (EDs). Methods A structured approach to SQI development was undertaken including: 1) a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and gray literature focusing on identification of evidence-based interventions targeting structure of care of older patients with cognitive impairment and existing SQIs; 2) a consultative process engaging experts in the care of older people and epidemiologic methods (i.e., advisory panel) leading to development of a draft set of SQIs; 3) field testing of drafted SQIs in eight EDs, leading to refinement of the SQI set, and; 4) an independent voting process among the panelists for SQI inclusion in a final set, using preestablished inclusion and exclusion criteria. Results At the conclusion of the process, five SQIs targeting the management of older ED patients with cognitive impairment were developed: 1) the ED has a policy outlining the management of older people with cognitive impairment during the ED episode of care; 2) the ED has a policy outlining issues relevant to carers of older people with cognitive impairment, encompassing the need to include the (family) carer in the ED episode of care; 3) the ED has a policy outlining the assessment and management of behavioral symptoms, with specific reference to older people with cognitive impairment; 4) the ED has a policy outlining delirium prevention strategies, including the assessment of patients' delirium risk factors, and; 5) the ED has a policy outlining pain assessment and management for older people with cognitive impairment. Conclusions This article presents a set of SQIs for the evaluation of performance in caring for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs.

The ghost in the machine: Legal challenges of neural interface devices

Neural interface devices and the melding of mind and machine, challenge the law in determining where civil liability for injury, damage or loss should lie. The ability of the human mind to instruct and control these devices means that in a negligence action against a person with a neural interface device, determining the standard of care owed by him or her will be of paramount importance. This article considers some of the factors that may influence the court’s determination of the appropriate standard of care to be applied in this situation, leading to the conclusion that a new standard of care might evolve.

Translating biomechanics research into clinical practice

There is a large amount of research conducted each year examining every aspect of the mechanics of the human body and its interaction with medical devices and the environment; from the cellular level through to the whole body. While, as researchers, we obtain great pleasure from conducting studies and creating new knowledge we need to keep in mind that while this is a good thing it is even better if this new knowledge can lead to improvement in the quality of life for individuals suffering from biomechanical disorders. Such that while commercialisation is a good aim, not all research leads to marketable outcomes. However, it can lead to improvements in surgical techniques and clinical practice. It is important for us to identify and promote how the outcomes of research lead to improvements in quality of care, as this is perhaps the most important outcome for individual patients.

Space Station Design Report 2007

Design Proposal for the Blue Lunar Support Hub The conceptual design of a space station is one of the most challenging tasks in aerospace engineering. The history of the space station Mir and the assembly of the International Space Station demonstrate that even within the assembly phase quick solutions have to be found to cope with budget and technical problems or changing objectives. This report is the outcome of the conceptual design of the Space Station Design Workshop (SSDW) 2007, which took place as an international design project from the 16th to the 21st of July 2007 at the Australian Centre for Field Robotics (ACFR), University of Sydney, Australia. The participants were tasked to design a human-tended space station in low lunar orbit (LLO) focusing on supporting future missions to the moon in a programmatic context of space exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The design included incorporating elements from systems engineering to interior architecture. The customised, intuitive, rapid-turnaround software tools enabled the team to successfully tackle the complex problem of conceptual design of crewed space systems. A strong emphasis was put on improving the integration of the human crew, as it is the major contributor to mission success, while always respecting the boundary conditions imposed by the challenging environment of space. This report documents the methodology, tools and outcomes of the Space Station Design Workshop during the SSDW 2007. The design results produced by Team Blue are presented.

Ultrafine particle emission of waste incinerators and comparison to the exposure of urban citizens

On the basis of the growing interest on the impact of airborne particles on human exposure as well as the strong debate in Western countries on the emissions of waste incinerators, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) show the emission factors of ultrafine particles (particles with a diameter less than 100 nm) of waste incinerators, and; (ii) assess the contribution of waste incinerators in terms of ultrafine particles to exposure and dose of people living in the surrounding areas of the plants in order to estimate eventual risks. The review identified only a limited number of studies measuring ultrafine particle emissions, and in general they report low particle number concentrations at the stack (the median value was equal to 5.5×103 part cm-3), in most cases higher than the outdoor background value. The lowest emissions were achieved by utilization of the bag-house filter which has an overall number-based filtration efficiency higher than 99%. Referring to reference case, the corresponding emission factor is equal to 9.1×1012 part min-1, that is lower than one single high-duty vehicle. Since the higher particle number concentrations found in the most contributing microenvironments to the exposure (indoor home, transportation, urban outdoor), the contribution of the waste incinerators to the daily dose can be considered as negligible.

Comparison of charged nanoparticle concentrations near busy roads and overhead high-voltage power lines

Overhead high-voltage power lines are known sources of corona ions. These ions rapidly attach to aerosols to form charged particles in the environment. Although the effect of ions and charged particles on human health is largely unknown, much attention has focused on the increasing exposure as a result of the expanding power network in urban residential areas. However, it is not widely known that a large number of charged particles in urban environments originate from motor vehicle emissions. In this study, for the first time, we compare the concentrations of charged nanoparticles near busy roads and overhead power lines. We show that large concentrations of both positive and negative charged nanoparticles are present near busy roadways and that these concentrations commonly exceed those under high-voltage power lines. We estimate that the concentration of charged nanoparticles found near two freeways carrying around 120 vehicles per minute exceeded the corresponding maximum concentrations under two corona-emitting overhead power lines by as much as a factor of 5. The difference was most pronounced when a significant fraction of traffic consisted of heavy-duty diesel vehicles which typically have high particle and charge emission rates.

Particle doses in the pulmonary lobes of electronic and conventional cigarette users

The main aim of the present study was to estimate size segregated doses from e-cigarette aerosols as a function of the airway generation number in lung lobes.. After a 2-second puff, 7.7×1010 particles (DTot) with a surface area of 3.6×103 mm2 (STot), and 3.3×1010 particles with a surface area of 4.2×103 mm2 were deposited in the respiratory system for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. Alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited doses were compared to the ones received by non-smoking individuals in Western countries, showing a similar order of magnitude. Total regional doses (DR), in head and lobar tracheobronchial and alveolar regions, ranged from 2.7×109 to 1.3×1010 particles and 1.1×109 to 5.3×1010 particles, for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. DR in the right-upper lung lobe was about twice that found in left-upper lobe and 20% greater in right-lower lobe than the left-lower lobe.

Indoor air: Contemporary sources, exposures and global implications

Recent 'Global Burden of Disease' studies have provided quantitative evidence of the significant role air pollution plays as a human health risk factor (Lim et al., The Lancet, 380: 2224–2260, 2012). Tobacco smoke, including second hand smoke, household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient particulate matter are among the top risks, leading to lower life expectancy around the world. Indoor air constitutes an environment particularly rich in different types of pollutants, originating from indoor sources, as well as penetrating from outdoors, mixing, interacting or growing (when considering microbes) under the protective enclosure of the building envelope. Therefore, it is not a simple task to follow the dynamics of the processes occurring there, or to quantify the outcomes of the processes in terms of pollutant concentrations and other characteristics. This is further complicated by limitations such as building access for the purpose of air quality monitoring, or the instrumentation which can be used indoors, because of their possible interference with the occupants comfort (due to their large size, noise generated or amount of air drawn). European studies apportioned contributions of indoor versus outdoor sources of indoor air contaminants in 26 European countries and quantified IAQ associated DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in those countries (Jantunen et al., Promoting actions for healthy indoor air (IAIAQ), European Commission Directorate General for Health and Consumers, Luxembourg, 2011). At the same time, there has been an increase in research efforts around the world to better understand the sources, composition, dynamics and impacts of indoor air pollution. Particular focus has been directed towards the contemporary sources, novel pollutants and new detection methods. The importance of exposure assessment and personal exposure, the majority of which occurs in various indoor micro¬environments, has also been realized. Overall, this emerging knowledge has been providing input for global assessments of indoor environments, the impact of indoor pollutants and their science based management and control. It was a major outcome of recent international conferences that interdisciplinarity and especially a better colla¬boration between exposure and indoor sciences would be of high benefit for the health related evaluation of environmental stress factors and pollutants. A very good example is the combination of biomonitoring and indoor air, particle and dust analysis to study the exposure routes of semi volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). We have adopted the idea of combining the forces of exposure and indoor sciences for this Special Issue, identified new and challenging topics and have attracted colleagues who are top researchers in their field to provide their inputs. The Special Issue includes papers, which collectively present advances in current research topics and in our view, build the bridge between indoor and exposure sciences.

Adaptive nature of coordinated road traffic injury prevention responses in some OECD countries

This study examines the context of coordinated responses, triggers for coordinated responses, and preference for or choice of coordinating strategies in road traffic injury prevention at a local level in some OECD countries. This aim is achieved through a mixed-methodology. In this respect, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with road traffic injury prevention experts from five OECD countries. In addition, 31 professional road traffic injury prevention stakeholders from seven OECD nations completed a self-administered, online survey. It found that there was resource limitation and inter-dependence across actors within the context of road traffic injury prevention at a local level. Furthermore, this study unveiled the realization of resource-dependency as a trigger for coordinated responses at a local level. Moreover, the present examination has revealed two coordinating strategies favored by experts in road traffic injury prevention – i.e. self-organizing community groups, which are deemed to have a platform to deliver programs within communities, and the funding of community groups to forge partnerships. However, the present study did not appear to endorse other strategies such as the formalization of coordinated responses or a legal mandate to coordinate responses. In essence, this study appears to suggest a need to manage coordinated responses from an adaptive perspective with interactions across road traffic injury prevention programs being forged on a mutual understanding of inter-dependency arising out of resource scarcity. In fact, the role of legislation and top-down national models in local level management of coordinated responses is likely to be one of identifying opportunities to interact with self-organized community groups and fund partnership-based road traffic injury prevention events.

Practice uncertainty: Changing perceptions

Practice uncertainty occurs when health care providers feel uncomfortable in response to unfamiliar or challenging patient care situations. Practice uncertainty is inevitable in health care, and there are many contextual factors that can lead to either good or bad outcomes for patients and health care providers. Practice uncertainty is not a well-established concept in the literature, perhaps because of the predominant empirical paradigm and the high value placed on certainty within current health care culture. This study was conducted to explore practice uncertainty and bring this topic into the foreground as a first step toward practice evolution. A shift in the perception of practice uncertainty may change the way in which practitioners experience this phenomenon. This process must start with nursing educators recognizing and acknowledging this phenomenon when it occurs.

Specialist nursing training in Poland: Applications for neuroscience nursing

Background: Nurses have a pivotal role in providing, facilitating, advocating and promoting the best possible care and outcome for the client. To ensure decisions and actions are based on current standards of practice, nurses must be accountable for participation in ongoing education in their area of practice. Aim: To present a description of the current state of Polish nursing education and specialized model for neurological and neurosurgical nursing that can be utilized for both undergraduate and postgraduate continuing education in Poland. Data sources: The model of postgraduate training introduced in Poland in 2000 was taken into consideration in developing the framework for neuroscience nursing postgraduate continuing education presented here. The framework for neurological continuing education is also based on a review of the literature and is consistent with Poland’s legally binding professional nursing regulations (normative and implementing regulations). Conclusion: The model demonstrates the need for the content of pre- and post-undergraduate degree education in neurological nursing to be graduated, based on the frameworks for undergraduate education (acquiring the knowledge and basic skills for performing the work of nurses) and postgraduate education (acquiring knowledge and specialist skills necessary for providing advanced nursing care including medical acts on patients with nervous system diseases). Implications for nursing: New and advanced skills gained in specialization training can be applied to complex functions, roles and professional tasks undertaken by nurses in relation to care of patients with neurological dysfunctions.

Colonoscopy requirements of population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand

Aim: To estimate the colonoscopy burden of introducing population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand. Methods: Screening for colorectal cancer using biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood tests offered to people aged 50-74 years of age was modelled using population estimates from Statistics New Zealand for 2011-2031. Modelling to determine colonoscopy requirements was based on participation and test positivity rates from published results of screening programmes. Estimates of the number of procedures required for ongoing adenoma surveillance were calculated using screening literature results of adenoma yield, and New Zealand Guidelines for Adenoma Surveillance. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken on key parameters. Results: For a test positivity of 6.4%, biennial screening using immunochemical faecal occult blood testing with a 60% participation rate, would require 18,000 colonoscopies nationally, increasing to 28,000 by 2031. The majority of procedures are direct referrals from a positive FOBT, with surveillance colonoscopy numbers building over time. Conclusion: Colonoscopy requirements for immunochemical faecal occult blood based population screening for colorectal cancer are high. Significant expansion of services is required and careful management of surveillance procedures to ensure timely delivery of initial colonoscopies whilst maintaining symptomatic services. A model re-run informed by data from the screening pilot will allow improved estimates for the New Zealand setting.

Relationships between biophysical and psychosocial outcomes following minor stroke

This descriptive correlational study examined relationships between mild stroke functional and psychosocial outcomes over the early post-discharge period among dyads of mild stroke patients (n=38) and their spousal caregivers (n=38). We measured patients' functional scores using the modified Rankin Scale; patients' and caregivers' quality of life (QoL) using Stroke Impact Scale and Short-Form 36 respectively, mood using the Beck Depression Inventory-II, and marital function scores using the Family Assessment Device. Spousal caregivers also completed the Bakas Caregiving Outcomes Scale as a measure of caregiver strain. The average age of stroke patients was 64 years and of spousal caregivers 58 years. All stroke patients were male; all spousal caregivers female. At three months post discharge, patient functional status scores had significantly improved from discharge (p=0.026) with a corresponding increase in QoL scores (p=0.012). Functional status was significantly correlated with patient perceptions of QoL at three months (r=.014, p=0.024) and spousal caregiver perceptions of physical domain QoL (r=.-.397, p=0.014). Spousal caregivers' mood at three months post discharge was strongly correlated with their perceptions of marital satisfaction (r=.578, p=0.000) and caregiver strain (r=-.620, p=0.000). In preparing patients for discharge following mild stroke, nurses must consider the psychological and social implications of the recovery process over time for both the patient with stroke and their spousal caregivers.