581 resultados para population modeling


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Rationale: Asthma has substantial morbidity and mortality and a strong genetic component, but identification of genetic risk factors is limited by availability of suitable studies. Objectives: To test if population-based cohorts with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma and genome-wide association (GWA) data could be used to validate known associations with asthma and identify novel associations. Methods: The APCAT (Analysis in Population-based Cohorts of Asthma Traits) consortium consists of 1,716 individuals with asthma and 16,888 healthy controls from six European-descent population-based cohorts. We examined associations in APCAT of thirteen variants previously reported as genome-wide significant (P<5x10-8) and three variants reported as suggestive (P<5×10-7). We also searched for novel associations in APCAT (Stage 1) and followed-up the most promising variants in 4,035 asthmatics and 11,251 healthy controls (Stage 2). Finally, we conducted the first genome-wide screen for interactions with smoking or hay fever. Main Results: We observed association in the same direction for all thirteen previously reported variants and nominally replicated ten of them. One variant that was previously suggestive, rs11071559 in RORA, now reaches genome-wide significance when combined with our data (P = 2.4×10-9). We also identified two genome-wide significant associations: rs13408661 near IL1RL1/IL18R1 (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-9), which is correlated with a variant recently shown to be associated with asthma (rs3771180), and rs9268516 in the HLA region (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-8), which appears to be independent of previously reported associations in this locus. Finally, we found no strong evidence for gene-environment interactions with smoking or hay fever status. Conclusions: Population-based cohorts with simple asthma phenotypes represent a valuable and largely untapped resource for genetic studies of asthma. © 2012 Ramasamy et al.

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Introduction. Rett Syndrome is a rare genetic neurodevelopmental disorder usually affecting females. Scoliosis is a common comorbidity and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. Little is known about long term outcomes. We examined the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in Rett Syndrome. Methods Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry of Rett Syndrome cases established in 1993, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. An extended Cox regression model was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on survival in females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle > 45 degrees). Generalized estimating equation modelling was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on the odds of developing severe LRTI. Results Severe scoliosis was identified in 140 cases (60.3%) of whom slightly fewer than half (48.6%) developed scoliosis prior to eight years of age. Scoliosis surgery was performed in 98 (69.0%) of those at a median age of 13 years 3 months (IQR 11 years 5 months – 14 years 10 months). After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12, 0.74, P = 0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06, 0.52, P = 0.002). Spinal fusion was not associated with reduction in the occurrence of a severe LRTI overall (OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.27, 1.33, P=0.206) but was associated with a large reduction in odds of severe LRTI among those with early onset scoliosis (OR 0.32, 95%CI 0.11, 0.93, P=0.036). Conclusion With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

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Migraine has been defined as a common disabling primary headache disorder. Epidemiology studies have provided with the undeniable evidence of genetic components as active players in the development of the disease under a polygenic model in which multiple risk alleles exert modest individual effects. Our objective was to test the contribution of a polygenic effect to migraine risk in the Norfolk Island population using a panel of SNPs reported to be disease associated in published migraine GWAS. We also investigated whether individual SNPs were associated with gene expression levels measured in whole-blood. Polygenic scores were calculated in a total of 285 related individuals (74 cases, 211 controls) from the Norfolk Island using 51 SNPs previously reported to be associated with migraine in published GWAS. The association between polygenic score and migraine case-control status was tested using logistic regression. Results indicate that a migraine polygenic risk score was associated with migraine case-control status in this population (P=0.016). This supports the hypothesis that multiple SNPs with weak effects collectively contribute to migraine risk in this population. Amongst the SNPs included in the polygenic model, 4 were associated with the expression of the USMG5 gene, including rs171251 (P = 0.012). Results from this study provide evidence for a polygenic contribution to migraine risk in an isolated population and highlight specific SNPs that regulate the expression of USMG5, a gene critical for mitochondrial function.

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Objective - To investigate the HLA class I associations of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in the white population, with particular reference to HLA-B27 subtypes. Methods - HLA-B27 and -B60 typing was performed in 284 white patients with AS. Allele frequencies of HLA-B27 and HLA-B60 from 5926 white bone marrow donors were used for comparison. HLA-B27 subtyping was performed by single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) in all HLA-B27 positive AS patients, and 154 HLA-B27 positive ethnically matched blood donors. Results - The strong association of HLA-B27 and AS was confirmed (odds ratio (OR) 171, 95% confidence interval (CI) 135 to 218; p < 10-99). The association of HLA-B60 with AS was confirmed in HLA-B27 positive cases (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.1 to 6.3; p < 5 x 10-5), and a similar association was demonstrated in HLA-B27 negative AS (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 11.4; p < 0.05). No significant difference was observed in the frequencies of HLA-B27 allelic subtypes in patients and controls (HLA-B*2702, three of 172 patients v five of 154 controls; HLA-B*2705, 169 of 172 patients v 147 of 154 controls; HkA-B*2708, none of 172 patients v two of 154 controls), and no novel HLA-B27 alleles were detected. Conclusion - HLA-B27 and -B60 are associated with susceptibility to AS, but differences in BLA-B27 subtype do not affect susceptibility to AS in this white population.

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Patrick Danoy, Meng Wei, Hadler Johanna, et al. Association of variants in MMEL1 and CTLA4 with rheumatoid arthritis in the Han Chinese population. Ann Rheum Dis 2011;70:1793–97. The following authors were listed as contributing equally to the study...

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Background: The genome-wide association study era has made great progress in identifying susceptibility genes and genetic loci for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in populations of White European ancestry. However, few studies have tried to dissect disease aetiopathogenesis in other ethnic populations. Objective: To investigate these associations in the Han Chinese population. Methods: Haplotypes from the HapMap database Chinese population were used to select tag-single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (r2 =0.8) across 19 distinct RA genomic regions. A two phase case-control association study was performed, with 169 SNPs genotyped in phase I (n=571 cases, n=880 controls), and 64 SNPs achieving p<0.2 in the first phase being genotyped in phase II (n=464 cases, n=822 controls). Association statistics were calculated using permutation tests both unadjusted and adjusted for the number of markers studied. Results: Robust association was detected for MMEL1 and CTLA4 , and modest association was identified for another six loci: PADI4 , STAT4 , PRDM1 , CDK6 , TRAF1-C5 and KIF5A-PIP4K2C. All three markers genotyped in MMEL1 demonstrated association, with peak signal for rs3890745 (p=2.6×10 -5unadjusted, p=0.003 adjusted, OR=0.79). For CTLA4 , significance was detected for three of five variants showing association, with peak association for marker rs12992492 (p=4.3×10-5 unadjusted, p=0.0021 adjusted, OR=0.77). Lack of association of common variants in PTPN22 with RA in Han Chinese was confirmed. Conclusion: This study identifies MMEL1 and CTLA4 as RA susceptibility genes, provides suggestive evidence of association for a further six loci in the Han Chinese population and confirms lack of PTPN22 association in Asian populations. It also confirms the value of multiethnic population studies to help dissect disease aetiopathogenesis.

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Objective Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a highly heritable common inflammatory arthritis that targets the spine and sacroiliac joints of the pelvis, causing pain and stiffness and leading eventually to joint fusion. Although previous studies have shown a strong association of IL23R with AS in white Europeans, similar studies in East Asian populations have shown no association with common variants of IL23R, suggesting either that IL23R variants have no role or that rare genetic variants contribute. The present study was undertaken to screen IL23R to identify rare variants associated with AS in Han Chinese. Methods A 170-kb region containing IL23R and its flanking regions was sequenced in 50 patients with AS and 50 ethnically matched healthy control subjects from a Han Chinese population. In addition, the 30-kb region of peak association in white Europeans was sequenced in 650 patients with AS and 1,300 healthy controls. Validation genotyping was undertaken in 846 patients with AS and 1,308 healthy controls. Results We identified 1,047 variants, of which 729 were not found in the dbSNP genomic build 130. Several potentially functional rare variants in IL23R were identified, including one nonsynonomous single-nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP), Gly149Arg (position 67421184 GA on chromosome 1). Validation genotyping showed that the Gly149Arg variant was associated with AS (odds ratio 0.61, P = 0.0054). Conclusion This is the first study to implicate rare IL23R variants in the pathogenesis of AS. The results identified a low-frequency nsSNP with predicted loss-of-function effects that was protectively associated with AS in Han Chinese, suggesting that decreased function of the interleukin-23 (IL-23) receptor protects against AS. These findings further support the notion that IL-23 signaling has an important role in the pathogenesis of AS.

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Objective The results of a recent genome-wide association study have shown that ERAP1 and IL23R are associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in Caucasian populations from North America and the UK. Based on these findings, we undertook the current study to investigate whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering the genes ERAP1 and IL23R are associated with AS in a Han Chinese population. Methods A case-control study was performed in Han Chinese patients with AS (n = 527) and controls (n = 945) from Shanghai and Nanjing. All patients met the modified New York criteria for AS. The Sequenom iPlex platform was used to genotype cases and controls for 21 tag SNPs covering IL23R and 38 tag SNPs covering ERAP1. Statistical analysis was performed using the Cochran-Armitage test for trend. Results Multiple SNPs in ERAP1 were significantly associated with AS (for rs27980, P = 0.0048; for rs7711564, P = 0.0081). However, no association was observed between IL23R and AS (for all SNPs, P > 0.1). The nonsynonymous SNP in IL23R, rs11209026, widely thought to be the primary AS-associated SNP in IL23R in Europeans, was found not to be polymorphic in Chinese. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that genetic polymorphisms in ERAP1 are associated with AS in Han Chinese, suggesting a common pathogenic mechanism for the disease in Chinese and Caucasian populations, and that IL23R is not associated with AS in Chinese, indicating a difference in the mechanism of disease pathogenesis between Chinese and Caucasian populations. This may result from the fact that rs11209026, the nonsynonymous SNP in IL23R, is not polymorphic in Chinese patients, providing further evidence that rs11209026 is the key polymorphism associated with AS (and likely inflammatory bowel disease and psoriasis) in this gene.

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This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

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Introduction: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. We sought to test the hypothesis that due to increased inflammation, CV disease and risk factors are associated with increased risk of future RA development. Methods: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health surveys (HUNT) were conducted among the entire adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway. All inhabitants 20 years or older were invited, and information was collected through comprehensive questionnaires, a clinical examination, and blood samples. In a cohort design, data from HUNT2 (1995-1997, baseline) and HUNT3 (2006-2008, follow-up) were obtained to study participants with RA (n = 786) or osteoarthritis (n = 3,586) at HUNT3 alone, in comparison with individuals without RA or osteoarthritis at both times (n = 33,567). Results: Female gender, age, smoking, body mass index, and history of previous CV disease were associated with self-reported incident RA (previous CV disease: odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.11-2.07). The findings regarding previous CV disease were confirmed in sensitivity analyses excluding participants with psoriasis (odds ratio (OR) 1.70 (1.23-2.36)) or restricting the analysis to cases with a hospital diagnosis of RA (OR 1.90 (1.10-3.27)) or carriers of the shared epitope (OR 1.76 (1.13-2.74)). History of previous CV disease was not associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis (OR 1.04 (0.86-1.27)). Conclusion: A history of previous CV disease was associated with increased risk of incident RA but not osteoarthritis.

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The major diabetes autoantigen, glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65), contains a region of sequence similarity, including six identical residues PEVKEK, to the P2C protein of coxsackie B virus, suggesting that cross-reactivity between coxsackie B virus and GAD65 can initiate autoimmune diabetes. We used the human islet cell mAbs MICA3 and MICA4 to identify the Ab epitopes of GAD65 by screening phage-displayed random peptide libraries. The identified peptide sequences could be mapped to a homology model of the pyridoxal phosphate (PLP) binding domain of GAD65. For MICA3, a surface loop containing the sequence PEVKEK and two adjacent exposed helixes were identified in the PLP binding domain as well as a region of the C terminus of GAD65 that has previously been identified as critical for MICA3 binding. To confirm that the loop containing tile PEVKEK sequence contributes to the MICA3 epitope, this loop was deleted by mutagenesis. This reduced binding of MICA3 by 70%. Peptide sequences selected using MICA4 were rich in basic or hydroxyl-containing amino acids, and the surface of the GAD65 PLP-binding domain surrounding Lys358, which is known to be critical for MICA4 binding, was likewise rich in these amino acids. Also, the two phage most reactive width MICA4 encoded the motif VALxG, and the reverse of this sequence, LAV, was located in this same region. Thus, we have defined the MICA3 and MICA4 epitopes on GAD65 using the combination of phage display, molecular modeling, and mutagenesis and have provided compelling evidence for the involvement of the PEVKEK loop in the MICA3 epitope.

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The construction industry is a knowledge-based industry where various actors with diverse expertise create unique information within different phases of a project. The industry has been criticized by researchers and practitioners as being unable to apply newly created knowledge effectively to innovate. The fragmented nature of the construction industry reduces the opportunity of project participants to learn from each other and absorb knowledge. Building Information Modelling (BIM), referring to digital representations of constructed facilities, is a promising technological advance that has been proposed to assist in the sharing of knowledge and creation of linkages between firms. Previous studies have mainly focused on the technical attributes of BIM and there is little evidence on its capability to enhance learning in construction firms. This conceptual paper identifies six ‘functional attributes’ of BIM that act as triggers to stimulate learning: (1) comprehensibility; (2) predictability; (3) accuracy; (4) transparency; (5) mutual understanding and; (6) integration.

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Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by low bone mineral density (BMD) and poor bone quality. Peak bone density is achieved by the third decade of life, after which bone is maintained by a balanced cycle of bone resorption and synthesis. Age-related bone loss occurs as the bone resorption phase outweighs the bone synthesis phase of bone metabolism. Heritability accounts for up to 90% of the variability in BMD. Chromosomal loci including 1p36, 2p22-25, 11q12-13, parathyroid hormone receptor type 1 (PTHR1), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin 1 alpha (IL-1α) and type II collagen A1/vitamin D receptor (COL11A1/VDR) have been linked or shown suggestive linkage with BMD in other populations. To determine whether these loci predispose to low BMD in the Irish population, we investigated 24 microsatellite markers at 7 chromosomal loci by linkage studies in 175 Irish families of probands with primary low BMD (T-score ≤ -1.5). Nonparametric analysis was performed using the maximum likelihood variance estimation and traditional Haseman-Elston tests on the Mapmaker/Sibs program. Suggestive evidence of linkage was observed with lumbar spine BMD at 2p22-25 (maximum LOD score 2.76) and 11q12-13 (MLS 2.55). One region, 1p36, approached suggestive linkage with femoral neck BMD (MLS 2.17). In addition, seven markers achieved LOD scores > 1.0, D2S149, D11S1313, D11S987, D11S1314 including those encompassing the PTHR1 (D3S3559, D3S1289) for lumbar spine BMD and D2S149 for femoral neck BMD. Our data suggest that genes within a these chromosomal regions are contributing to a predisposition to low BMD in the Irish population.

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Objective: Association between ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and two genes, ERAP1 and IL23R, has recently been reported in North American and British populations. The population attributable risk fraction for ERAP1 in this study was 25%, and for IL23R, 9%. Confirmation of these findings to ERAP1 in other ethnic groups has not yet been demonstrated. We sought to test the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in these genes and susceptibility to AS among a Portuguese population. We also investigated the role of these genes in clinical manifestations of AS, including age of symptom onset, the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity, Metrology and Functional Indices, and the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score. Methods: The study was conducted on 358 AS cases and 285 ethnically matched Portuguese healthy controls. AS was defined according to the modified New York Criteria. Genotyping of IL23R and ERAP1 allelic variants was carried out with TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Association analysis was performed using the Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests of genotypes as implemented in PLINK for dichotomous and quantitative variables respectively. A meta-analysis for Portuguese and previously published Spanish IL23R data was performed using the StatsDirect® Statistical tools, by fixed and random effects models. Results: A total of 14 nsSNPs markers (8 for IL23R, 5 for ERAPl, 1 for LN-PEP) were analysed. Three markers (2 for IL23R and 1 for ERAP1) showed significant single-locus disease associations, confirming that the association of these genes with AS in the Portuguese population. The strongest associated SNP in IL23R was rs1004819 (OR=1.4, p=0.0049), and in ERAP1 was rs30187 (OR=1.26, p=0.035). The population attributable risk fractions in the Portuguese population for these SNPs are 11% and 9.7% respectively. No association was seen with any SNP in LN-PEP, which flanks ERAP1 and was associated with AS in the British population. No association was seen with clinical manifestations of AS. Conclusions: These results show that IL23R and ERAP1 genes are also associated with susceptibility to AS in the Portuguese population, and that they contribute a significant proportion of the population risk for this disease.

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Over the last 30 years, numerous research groups have attempted to provide mathematical descriptions of the skin wound healing process. The development of theoretical models of the interlinked processes that underlie the healing mechanism has yielded considerable insight into aspects of this critical phenomenon that remain difficult to investigate empirically. In particular, the mathematical modeling of angiogenesis, i.e., capillary sprout growth, has offered new paradigms for the understanding of this highly complex and crucial step in the healing pathway. With the recent advances in imaging and cell tracking, the time is now ripe for an appraisal of the utility and importance of mathematical modeling in wound healing angiogenesis research. The purpose of this review is to pedagogically elucidate the conceptual principles that have underpinned the development of mathematical descriptions of wound healing angiogenesis, specifically those that have utilized a continuum reaction-transport framework, and highlight the contribution that such models have made toward the advancement of research in this field. We aim to draw attention to the common assumptions made when developing models of this nature, thereby bringing into focus the advantages and limitations of this approach. A deeper integration of mathematical modeling techniques into the practice of wound healing angiogenesis research promises new perspectives for advancing our knowledge in this area. To this end we detail several open problems related to the understanding of wound healing angiogenesis, and outline how these issues could be addressed through closer cross-disciplinary collaboration.