557 resultados para Reasoning under Uncertainty


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This video was prepared as a teaching resource for CARRS-Q's Under the Limit Drink Driving Rehabilitation Program

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This video was prepared as a teaching resource for CARRS-Q's Under the Limit Drink Driving Rehabilitation Program

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This video was prepared as a teaching resource for CARRS-Q's Under the Limit Drink Driving Rehabilitation Program.

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This paper aims to provide a contextualised and embedded exploration of how the notions of "practice" and "participation", key concepts in the study of culture and media, are manifest in an example of a complex creative project. This project aimed to engage with refugees and asylum seekers through the co-creation of cultural material and is an outcome of an? ethnographic action research (Tacchi et al. 2003) partnership involving a community development worker in a settlement support agency and a storytelling/community media researcher (the author), along with other project collaborators. The discussion of this project focuses on the role of the facilitator and illustrates the processes of orchestrating a complex project involving a series of linked stages with cumulative effect. As practitioners at this site we are working in the space where personal narratives, participatory arts and media, and the staging of intercultural, civic dialogue events, intersect. Co-creative media facilitation in these contexts involves both managing hybrid communicative spaces and (re)combining the "integrative practices" (Schatzki 1996) of a range of professional approaches and creative roles. This is liminal work, located on the boundaries of several disciplines and practices. Drawing on reflections gathered from collaborative ethnographic descriptions (Bhattacharya 2008), this paper traces moments of practitioner uncertainty that can be linked to the way "practice" and “participation” is problematised within the community cultural development field in a way that is at times an uneasy fit with conventional ways of operating in social service roles. These moments of tension also indicate where this project pushed practitioners into spaces of improvisation and new learning. Keywords: Youth, refugees, community cultural development, co-creative media facilitation, ethnographic action research, intercultural dialogue.

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Fire safety design of buildings is essential to safeguard lives and minimize the loss of damage to properties. Light-weight cold-formed steel channel sections along with fire resistive plasterboards are used to construct light gauge steel frame floor systems to provide the required fire resistance rating. However, simply adding more plasterboard layers is not an efficient method to increase FRR. Hence this research focuses on using joists with improved joist section profiles such as hollow flange sections to increase the structural capacity of floor systems under fire conditions and thus their FRR. In this research, the structural and thermal behaviour of LSF floor systems made of LiteSteel Beams with different plasterboard and insulation configurations was investigated using four full scale tests under standard fires. Based on the ultimate failure load of the floor joist at ambient temperature, transient state fire tests were conducted for different Load Ratios. These fire tests showed that the new LSF floor system has improved the FRR well above that of those made of lipped channel sections. The joist failure was predominantly due to local buckling of LSB compression flanges near mid-span with severe yielding of tension flanges. Fire tests have provided valuable structural and thermal performance data of tested floor systems that included time-temperature profiles, and failure times and temperatures. Average failure temperatures of LSB joists and reduced yield strengths were used to predict their ultimate moment capacities, which were compared with corresponding test capacities. This allowed an assessment in relation to the accuracy of current design rules for steel joists at elevated temperatures. This paper presents the details of full scale fire tests of LSF floor systems made of LSB joists with different plasterboard and insulation configurations and their results along with some important findings.

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This paper presents a feasibility study on structural damage alarming and localization of long-span cable-supported bridges using multi-novelty indices formulated by monitoring-derived modal parameters. The proposed method which requires neither structural model nor damage model is applicable to structures of arbitrary complexity. With the intention to enhance the tolerance to measurement noise/uncertainty and the sensitivity to structural damage, an improved novelty index is formulated in terms of auto-associative neural networks (ANNs) where the output vector is designated to differ from the input vector while the training of the ANNs needs only the measured modal properties of the intact structure under in-service conditions. After validating the enhanced capability of the improved novelty index for structural damage alarming over the commonly configured novelty index, the performance of the improved novelty index for damage occurrence detection of large-scale bridges is examined through numerical simulation studies of the suspension Tsing Ma Bridge (TMB) and the cable-stayed Ting Kau Bridge (TKB) incurred with different types of structural damage. Then the improved novelty index is extended to formulate multi-novelty indices in terms of the measured modal frequencies and incomplete modeshape components for damage region identification. The capability of the formulated multi-novelty indices for damage region identification is also examined through numerical simulations of the TMB and TKB.

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The present study deals with two dimensional, numerical simulation of railway track supporting system subjected to dynamic excitation force. Under plane strain condition, the coupled finite-infinite elements to represent the near and far field stress distribution and thin layer interface element was employed to model the interfacial behavior between sleepers and ballast. To account for the relative debonding, slipping and crushing that could take place in the contact area between the sleepers and ballast, modified Mohr-Coulomb criterion was adopted. Furthermore an attempt has been made to consider the elasto-plastic material non-linearity of the railway track supporting media by employing different constitutive models to represent steel, concrete and supporting materials. Based on the proposed physical and constitutive modeling a code has been developed for dynamic loads. The applicability of the developed F.E code has been demonstrated by analyzing a real railway supporting structure.

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This research study comprehensively analyses the dynamics of nitrogen and suspended solids removal in stormwater biofilters. The study focuses on pollutant removal during an event with time, rather than the conventional event-mean analysis. Antecedent dry days (number of days in between rainfall) during which biofilters remain dry and the inflow concentration of pollutants were two other important variables analysed in this study. The research outcome highlights the significance of dry-phase processes and the process of stabilization on filter performance and sets a paradigm shift from the current approach towards an innovative way of performance analysis of biofilters.

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This research quantifies traffic congestion and travel time reliability with case study on a major arterial road in Brisbane. The focus is on the analysis of impact of incidents (e.g., road accidents) on travel time reliability. Real traffic (Bluetooth) and incident records from Coronation Drive, Brisbane are utilized for the study. The findings include significant impact of incidents on traffic congestion and travel time reliability. The knowledge gained is useful in various applications such as traveler information systems, and cost-benefit analysis of various strategies to reduce the traffic incidents and its' impacts.

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The relationship between mathematics and statistical reasoning frequently receives comment (Vere-Jones 1995, Moore 1997); however most of the research into the area tends to focus on mathematics anxiety. Gnaldi (2003) showed that in a statistics course for psychologists, the statistical understanding of students at the end of the course depended on students’ basic numeracy, rather than the number or level of previous mathematics courses the student had undertaken. As part of a study into the development of statistical thinking at the interface between secondary and tertiary education, students enrolled in an introductory data analysis subject were assessed regarding their statistical reasoning, basic numeracy skills, mathematics background and attitudes towards statistics. This work reports on some key relationships between these factors and in particular the importance of numeracy to statistical reasoning.

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The relationship between mathematics and statistical reasoning frequently receives comment (Vere-Jones 1995, Moore 1997); however most of the research into the area tends to focus on maths anxiety. Gnaldi (Gnaldi 2003) showed that in a statistics course for psychologists, the statistical understanding of students at the end of the course depended on students’ basic numeracy, rather than the number or level of previous mathematics courses the student had undertaken. As part of a study into the development of statistical thinking at the interface between secondary and tertiary education, students enrolled in an introductory data analysis subject were assessed regarding their statistical reasoning ability, basic numeracy skills and attitudes towards statistics. This work reports on the relationships between these factors and in particular the importance of numeracy to statistical reasoning.

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Cold-formed steel members have many advantages over hot-rolled steel members. However, they are susceptible to various buckling modes at stresses below the yield stress of the member because of their relatively high width-to-thickness ratio. Web crippling is a form of localized failure mode that can occur when the members are subjected to transverse high concentrated loadings and/or reactions. The four common loading conditions are the end-one-flange (EOF), interior-one-flange (IOF), end-two-flange (ETF) and interior-two-flange (ITF) loadings. Recently a test method has been proposed by AISI to obtain the web crippling capacities under these four loading conditions. Using this test method 42 tests were conducted in this research to investigate the web crippling behaviour and strengths of unlipped channels with stocky webs under ETF and ITF cases. DuraGal sections having a nominal yield stress of 450 MPa were tested with different web slenderness and bearing lengths. The flanges of these channel sections were not fastened to the supports. In this research the suitability of the currently available design rules for unlipped channels subject to web crippling was investigated, and suitable modifications were proposed where necessary. In addition to this, a new design rule was proposed based on the direct strength method to predict the web crippling capacities of tested beams. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results.

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OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.

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OBJECTIVES To estimate the extent of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) among children aged 0 - 4 years and pregnant women aged 15 - 49 years, and the burden of disease attributed to IDA in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization (WHO) was followed using local prevalence and burden estimates. IDA prevalence came from re-analysis of the South African Vitamin A Consultative Group study in the case of the children, and from a pooled estimate from several studies in the case of the pregnant women (haemoglobin level < 11 g/dl and ferritin level < 12 microg/l). Monte Carlo simulation-modelling was used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years and pregnant women 15 - 49 years. OUTCOME MEASURES Direct sequelae of IDA, maternal and perinatal deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from mild mental disability related to IDA. Results. It is estimated that 5.1% of children and 9 - 12% of pregnant women had IDA and that about 7.3% of perinatal deaths and 4.9% of maternal deaths were attributed to IDA in 2000. Overall, about 174,976 (95% uncertainty interval 150,344 - 203,961) healthy years of life lost (YLLs), or between 0.9% and 1.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000, were attributable to IDA. CONCLUSIONS This first study in South Africa to quantify the burden from IDA suggests that it is a less serious public health problem in South Africa than in many other developing countries. Nevertheless, this burden is preventable, and the study highlights the need to disseminate the food-based dietary guidelines formulated by the National Department of Health to people who need them and to monitor the impact of the food fortification programme.

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This paper examines the effect of individual transferable quota regimes on technology choice, such as choice of vessel size, by using the laboratory experiment method. We find that even if vessel sizes change over time, the quota price can converge to the fundamental value conditioned on the vessels chosen. We also find that subjects choose their vessel type to maximise their profits based on the quota trading prices in the previous period. This result implies that the efficiency of quota markets in the beginning period is important because any inefficiency in quota markets may affect vessel sizes in ensuing periods. Moreover, we find that the initial allocations may significantly influence vessel sizes through two channels: first, a higher initial allocation to a subject increases the likelihood that the subject invests in a large-sized vessel; second, the quota price may be higher and more unstable under unequal allocation than under equal allocation; thus, whether the allocation is equal influences subjects' choice of vessel type. © 2014 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc.