Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Estimation of growth parameters from multiple-recapture data

This article develops a method for analysis of growth data with multiple recaptures when the initial ages for all individuals are unknown. The existing approaches either impute the initial ages or model them as random effects. Assumptions about the initial age are not verifiable because all the initial ages are unknown. We present an alternative approach that treats all the lengths including the length at first capture as correlated repeated measures for each individual. Optimal estimating equations are developed using the generalized estimating equations approach that only requires the first two moment assumptions. Explicit expressions for estimation of both mean growth parameters and variance components are given to minimize the computational complexity. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method works well. Two real data sets are analyzed for illustration, one from whelks (Dicathais aegaota) and the other from southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in South Australia.

Microgrid frequency control using multiple battery energy storage system (BESSs)

The work is a report of research on using multiple inverters of Battery Energy Storage Systems with angle droop controllers to share real power in an isolated micro grid system consisting of inertia based Distributed Generation units and variable load. The proposed angle droop control method helps to balance the supply and demand in the micro grid autonomous mode through charging and discharging of the Battery Energy Storage Systems while ensuring that the state of charge of the storage devices is within safe operating conditions. The proposed method is also studied for its effectiveness for frequency control. The proposed control system is verified and its performance validated with simulation software MATLAB/SIMULINK.

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Evaluation of transgenic bananas expressing anti-apoptotic genes for resistance against Fusarium wilt

The banana industry worldwide is under threat from a fungal disease known as Fusarium wilt, a disease for which there is no chemical control. Conventional breeding approaches to generate resistant banana varieties are lengthy and very difficult. As such, genetic engineering for disease resistance is considered the most viable control option. In this PhD thesis, genetically modified banana plants were generated using several different stress tolerance genes. When challenged with Fusarium wilt in glasshouse trials, some lines showed increased resistance to the disease. The promising elite lines generated in this study will now require testing in field trials.

Uropathogenic Escherichia Coli engages CD14-dependent signaling to enable bladder-macrophage-dependent control of acute urinary tract infection

Background CD14, a coreceptor for several pattern recognition receptors and a widely used monocyte/macrophage marker, plays a key role in host responses to gram-negative bacteria. Despite the central role of CD14 in the inflammatory response to lipopolysaccharide and other microbial products and in the dissemination of bacteria in some infections, the signaling networks controlled by CD14 during urinary tract infection (UTI) are unknown. Methods We used uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) infection of wild-type (WT) C57BL/6 and Cd14−/− mice and RNA sequencing to define the CD14-dependent transcriptional signature and the role of CD14 in host defense against UTI in the bladder. Results UPEC induced the upregulation of Cd14 and the monocyte/macrophage-related genes Emr1/F4/80 and Csf1r/c-fms, which was associated with lower UPEC burdens in WT mice, compared with Cd14−/− mice. Exacerbation of infection in Cd14−/− mice was associated with the absence of a 491-gene transcriptional signature in the bladder that encompassed multiple host networks not previously associated with this receptor. CD14-dependent pathways included immune cell trafficking, differential cytokine production in macrophages, and interleukin 17 signaling. Depletion of monocytes/macrophages in the bladder by administration of liposomal clodronate led to higher UPEC burdens. Conclusions This study identifies new host protective and signaling roles for CD14 in the bladder during UPEC UTI.

A coupled SPH-DEM approach to model the interactions between multiple red blood cells in motion in capillaries

Red blood cells (RBCs) are the most common type of blood cells in the blood and 99% of the blood cells are RBCs. During the circulation of blood in the cardiovascular network, RBCs squeeze through the tiny blood vessels (capillaries). They exhibit various types of motions and deformed shapes, when flowing through these capillaries with diameters varying between 5 10 µm. RBCs occupy about 45 % of the whole blood volume and the interaction between the RBCs directly influences on the motion and the deformation of the RBCs. However, most of the previous numerical studies have explored the motion and deformation of a single RBC when the interaction between RBCs has been neglected. In this study, motion and deformation of two 2D (two-dimensional) RBCs in capillaries are comprehensively explored using a coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and discrete element method (DEM) model. In order to clearly model the interactions between RBCs, only two RBCs are considered in this study even though blood with RBCs is continuously flowing through the blood vessels. A spring network based on the DEM is employed to model the viscoelastic membrane of the RBC while the inside and outside fluid of RBC is modelled by SPH. The effect of the initial distance between two RBCs, membrane bending stiffness (Kb) of one RBC and undeformed diameter of one RBC on the motion and deformation of both RBCs in a uniform capillary is studied. Finally, the deformation behavior of two RBCs in a stenosed capillary is also examined. Simulation results reveal that the interaction between RBCs has significant influence on their motion and deformation.

Genome-wide mapping of cystitis due to Streptococcus agalactiae and Escherichia coli in mice identifies a unique bladder transcriptome that signifies pathogen-specific antimicrobial defense against urinary tract infection

The most common causes of urinary tract infections (UTIs) are Gram-negative pathogens such as Escherichia coli; however, Gram-positive organisms including Streptococcus agalactiae, or group B streptococcus (GBS), also cause UTI. In GBS infection, UTI progresses to cystitis once the bacteria colonize bladder, but the host responses triggered in the bladder immediately following infection are largely unknown. Here, we used genome-wide expression profiling to map the bladder transcriptome of GBS UTI in mice infected transurethrally with uropathogenic GBS that was cultured from a 35 year-old women with cystitis. RNA from bladders was applied to Affymetrix Gene-1.0ST microarrays; qRT-PCR was used to analyze selected gene responses identified in array datasets. A surprisingly small significant gene list of 172 genes was identified at 24h; this compared to 2507 genes identified in a side-by-side comparison with uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC). No genes exhibited significantly altered expression at 2h in GBS-infected mice according to arrays despite high bladder bacterial loads at this early time point. The absence of a marked early host response to GBS juxtaposed with broad-based bladder responses activated by UPEC at 2h. Bioinformatics analyses including integrative systems-level network mapping revealed multiple activated biological pathways in the GBS cystitis transcriptome that regulate leukocyte activation, inflammation, apoptosis, and cytokine-chemokine biosynthesis. These findings define a novel, minimalistic type of bladder host response triggered by GBS UTI, which comprises collective antimicrobial pathways that differ dramatically from those activated by UPEC. Overall, this study emphasizes the unique nature of bladder immune activation mechanisms triggered by distinct uropathogens.

Estimation and partitioning of polygenic variation captured by common SNPs for Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis and endometriosis

Common diseases such as endometriosis (ED), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) account for a significant proportion of the health care burden in many countries. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for these diseases have identified a number of individual genetic variants contributing to the risk of those diseases. However, the effect size for most variants is small and collectively the known variants explain only a small proportion of the estimated heritability. We used a linear mixed model to fit all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) simultaneously, and estimated genetic variances on the liability scale using SNPs from GWASs in unrelated individuals for these three diseases. For each of the three diseases, case and control samples were not all genotyped in the same laboratory. We demonstrate that a careful analysis can obtain robust estimates, but also that insufficient quality control (QC) of SNPs can lead to spurious results and that too stringent QC is likely to remove real genetic signals. Our estimates show that common SNPs on commercially available genotyping chips capture significant variation contributing to liability for all three diseases. The estimated proportion of total variation tagged by all SNPs was 0.26 (SE 0.04) for ED, 0.24 (SE 0.03) for AD and 0.30 (SE 0.03) for MS. Further, we partitioned the genetic variance explained into five categories by a minor allele frequency (MAF), by chromosomes and gene annotation. We provide strong evidence that a substantial proportion of variation in liability is explained by common SNPs, and thereby give insights into the genetic architecture of the diseases.

No genetic support for a contribution of prostaglandins to the aetiology of androgenetic alopecia

MADAM, Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is a common age-dependent trait, characterized by a progressive loss of hair from the scalp. The hair loss may commence during puberty and up to 80% of white men experience some degree of AGA during their lifetime.1 Research has established that two essential aetiological factors for AGA are a genetic predisposition and the presence of androgens (male sex hormones).1,2 A recent meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has increased the number of identified loci associated with this trait at the molecular level to a total of eight.3 However, despite these successes, a large fraction of the genetic contribution remains to be identified. One way to identify further genetic loci is to combine the resource of GWAS datasets with knowledge about specific biological factors likely to be involved in the development of disease. The focused evaluation of a limited number of candidate genes in GWAS datasets avoids the necessity for extensive correction for multiple testing, which typically limits the power for detecting genetic loci at a genome-wide level.4 Because the presence of genetic association suggests that candidate genes are likely to operate early in the causative chain of events leading to the phenotype, this approach may also function to favour biological pathways for their importance in the development of AGA.

A genome-wide association study of sleep habits and insomnia

Several aspects of sleep behavior such as timing, duration and quality have been demonstrated to be heritable. To identify common variants that influence sleep traits in the population, we conducted a genome-wide association study of six sleep phenotypes assessed by questionnaire in a sample of 2,323 individuals from the Australian Twin Registry. Genotyping was performed on the Illumina 317, 370, and 610K arrays and the SNPs in common between platforms were used to impute non-genotyped SNPs. We tested for association with more than 2,000,000 common polymorphisms across the genome. While no SNPs reached the genome-wide significance threshold, we identified a number of associations in plausible candidate genes. Most notably, a group of SNPs in the third intron of the CACNA1C gene ranked as most significant in the analysis of sleep latency (P = 1.3 x 10(-)(6)). We attempted to replicate this association in an independent sample from the Chronogen Consortium (n = 2,034), but found no evidence of association (P = 0.73). We have identified several other suggestive associations that await replication in an independent sample. We did not replicate the results from previous genome-wide analyses of self-reported sleep phenotypes after correction for multiple testing.

Educational attainment: A genome wide association study in 9538 Australians

BACKGROUND Correlations between Educational Attainment (EA) and measures of cognitive performance are as high as 0.8. This makes EA an attractive alternative phenotype for studies wishing to map genes affecting cognition due to the ease of collecting EA data compared to other cognitive phenotypes such as IQ. METHODOLOGY In an Australian family sample of 9538 individuals we performed a genome-wide association scan (GWAS) using the imputed genotypes of approximately 2.4 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) for a 6-point scale measure of EA. Top hits were checked for replication in an independent sample of 968 individuals. A gene-based test of association was then applied to the GWAS results. Additionally we performed prediction analyses using the GWAS results from our discovery sample to assess the percentage of EA and full scale IQ variance explained by the predicted scores. RESULTS The best SNP fell short of having a genome-wide significant p-value (p = 9.77x10(-7)). In our independent replication sample six SNPs among the top 50 hits pruned for linkage disequilibrium (r(2)<0.8) had a p-value<0.05 but only one of these SNPs survived correction for multiple testing--rs7106258 (p = 9.7*10(-4)) located in an intergenic region of chromosome 11q14.1. The gene based test results were non-significant and our prediction analyses show that the predicted scores explained little variance in EA in our replication sample. CONCLUSION While we have identified a polymorphism chromosome 11q14.1 associated with EA, further replication is warranted. Overall, the absence of genome-wide significant p-values in our large discovery sample confirmed the high polygenic architecture of EA. Only the assembly of large samples or meta-analytic efforts will be able to assess the implication of common DNA polymorphisms in the etiology of EA.

Variation in BMPR1B, TGFRB1 and BMPR2 and control of dizygotic twinning

Genes in the TGF9 signaling pathway play important roles in the regulation of ovarian follicle growth and ovulation rate. Mutations in three genes in this pathway, growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9), bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15) and the bone morphogenetic protein receptor B 1 (BMPRB1), influence dizygotic (DZ) twinning rates in sheep. To date, only variants in GDF9 and BMP15, but not their receptors transforming growth factor ss receptor 1 (TGFBR1), bone morphogenetic protein receptor 2 (BMPR2) and BMPR1B, have been investigated with respect to their roles in human DZ twinning. We screened for rare and novel variants in TGFBR1, BMPR2 and BMPR1B in mothers of dizygotic twins (MODZT) from twin-dense families, and assessed association between genotyped and imputed variants and DZ twinning in another large sample of MODZT. Three novel variants were found: a deep intronic variant in BMPR2, and one intronic and one non-synonymous exonic variant in BMPRB1 which would result in the replacement of glutamine by glutamic acid at amino acid position 294 (p.Gln294Glu). None of these variants were predicted to have major impacts on gene function. However, the p.Gln294Glu variant changes the same amino acid as a sheep BMPR1B functional variant and may have functional consequences. Six BMPR1B variants were marginally associated with DZ twinning in the larger case-control sample, but these were no longer significant once multiple testing was taken into account. Our results suggest that variation in the TGF9 signaling pathway type II receptors has limited effects on DZ twinning rates in humans.

GWAS of butyrylcholinesterase activity identifies four novel loci, independent effects within BCHE and secondary associations with metabolic risk factors

Serum butyrylcholinesterase (BCHE) activity is associated with obesity, blood pressure and biomarkers of cardiovascular and diabetes risk. We have conducted a genome-wide association scan to discover genetic variants affecting BCHE activity, and to clarify whether the associations between BCHE activity and cardiometabolic risk factors are caused by variation in BCHE or whether BCHE variation is secondary to the metabolic abnormalities. We measured serum BCHE in adolescents and adults from three cohorts of Australian twin and family studies. The genotypes from approximately 2.4 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were available in 8791 participants with BCHE measurements. We detected significant associations with BCHE activity at three independent groups of SNPs at the BCHE locus (P = 5.8 x 10(-262), 7.8 x 10(-47), 2.9 x 10(-12)) and at four other loci: RNPEP (P = 9.4 x 10(-16)), RAPH1-ABI2 (P = 4.1 x 10(-18)), UGT1A1 (P = 4.0 x 10(-8)) and an intergenic region on chromosome 8 (P = 1.4 x 10(-8)). These loci affecting BCHE activity were not associated with metabolic risk factors. On the other hand, SNPs in genes previously associated with metabolic risk had effects on BCHE activity more often than can be explained by chance. In particular, SNPs within FTO and GCKR were associated with BCHE activity, but their effects were partly mediated by body mass index and triglycerides, respectively. We conclude that variation in BCHE activity is due to multiple variants across the spectrum from uncommon/large effect to common/small effect, and partly results from (rather than causes) metabolic abnormalities.