Sequencing risk : the worst returns in their worst order

For the first of the baby boomers turning 65 years of age, after a decade littered with financial shocks (dot.com bubble, sub-prime, global financial crisis, sovereign debt), sequencing risk can represent a significant threat to their retirement nest eggs. This paper takes an outcomeoriented approach to the problem, to provide practical insights into how sequencing risk works and the critical dependency of retirement outcomes on sequencing risk. Our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that it is the accumulated average of investment returns that matter. We show, instead, that it is the realised sequence of returns which largely determines the sustainability of retirement incomes.

Hybrid multi-channel cooperative spectrum sensing to satisfy channel target

Spectrum sensing of multiple primary user channels is a crucial function in cognitive radio networks. In this paper we propose an optimal, sensing resource allocation algorithm for multi-channel cooperative spectrum sensing. The channel target is implemented as an objective and constraint to ensure a pre-determined number of empty channels are detected for secondary user network operations. Based on primary user traffic parameters, we calculate the minimum number of primary user channels that must be sensed to satisfy the channel target. We implement a hybrid sensing structure by grouping secondary user nodes into clusters and assign each cluster to sense a different primary user channels. We then solve the resource allocation problem to find the optimal sensing configuration and node allocation to minimise sensing duration. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm requires the shortest sensing duration to achieve the channel target compared to existing studies that require long sensing and cannot guarantee the target.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

A novel, automated nutrition screening system as a predictor of nutritional risk in an oncology day treatment unit (ODTU)

Purpose Paper-based nutrition screening tools can be challenging to implement in the ambulatory oncology setting. The aim of this study was to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and a novel, automated nutrition screening system compared to a ‘gold standard’ full nutrition assessment using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Methods An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient oncology day treatment unit (ODTU) within an Australian tertiary health service. Eligibility criteria were as follows: ≥18 years, receiving outpatient anticancer treatment and English literate. Patients self-administered the MST. A dietitian assessed nutritional status using the PGSGA, blinded to the MST score. Automated screening system data were extracted from an electronic oncology prescribing system. This system used weight loss over 3 to 6 weeks prior to the most recent weight record or age-categorised body mass index (BMI) to identify nutritional risk. Sensitivity and specificity against PG-SGA (malnutrition) were calculated using contingency tables and receiver operating curves. Results There were a total of 300 oncology outpatients (51.7 % male, 58.6±13.3 years). The area under the curve (AUC) for weight loss alone was 0.69 with a cut-off value of ≥1 % weight loss yielding 63 % sensitivity and 76.7 % specificity. MST (score ≥2) resulted in 70.6 % sensitivity and 69.5 % specificity, AUC 0.77. Conclusions Both the MST and the automated method fell short of the accepted professional standard for sensitivity (~≥80 %) derived from the PG-SGA. Further investigation into other automated nutrition screening options and the most appropriate parameters available electronically is warranted to support targeted service provision.

Anglican Church knew clergyman Robert Waddington was a risk

AUSTRALIAN church officials knew of child-sex allegations in Britain against a senior clergymen when they pushed a victim into accepting a compensation payout on the basis that there was no evidence to back up his claims of abuse. Former Church of England investigator Ray Morris says he prepared a 2004 report about allegations in Britain and Australia - from the 1960s and 80s - against Robert Waddington. He sent it to north Queensland diocese officials, who were at the time involved in mediation with the Australian victim over his claims that he was abused weekly by Waddington between 1964 and 1968, who was headmaster of St Barnabas boarding school in Ravenshoe, southwest of Cairns.

Genetic polymorphisms in miRNAs targeting the estrogen receptor and their effect on breast cancer risk

Breast cancer is the cancer that most commonly affects women worldwide. This type of cancer is genetically complex, but is strongly linked to steroid hormone signalling systems. Because microRNAs act as translational regulators of multiple genes, including the steroid nuclear receptors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs genes can have potentially wide-ranging influences on breast cancer development. Thus, this study was conducted to investigate the relationships between six SNPs (rs6977848, rs199981120, rs185641358, rs113054794, rs66461782, and rs12940701) located in four miRNA genes predicted to target the estrogen receptor (miR-148a, miR-221, miR-186, and miR-152) and breast cancer risk in Caucasian Australian women. By using high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and polymerase chain reaction- restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP), 487 samples including 225 controls and 262 cases were genotyped. Analysis of their genotype and allele frequencies indicated that the differences between case and control populations was not significant for rs6977848, rs66461782, and rs12940701 because their p-values are 0.81, 0.93, 0.1 which are all above the threshold value (p=0.05). Our data thus suggests that these SNPs do not affect breast cancer risk in the tested population. In addition, rs199981120, rs185641358, and rs113054794 could not be found in this population, suggesting that these SNPs do not occur in Caucasian Australians.

Supporting cooperative design through "living" artefacts

We present findings from a field trial of CAM (Cooperative Artefact Memory) -- a mobile-tagging based messaging system -- in a design studio environment. CAM allows individuals to collaboratively store relevant information onto their physical design artefacts, such as sketches, collages, story-boards, and physical mock-ups in the form of messages, annotations and external web links. We studied the use of CAM in three student design projects. We observed that CAM facilitated new ways of collaborating in joint design projects. The serendipitous and asynchronous nature of CAM facilitated expressions of design aesthetics, allowed designers to have playful interactions, supported exploration of new design ideas, and supported designers' reflective practices. In general, our results show how CAM transformed mundane design artefacts into "living" artefacts that made the creative and playful side of cooperative design visible.

Experiential role of artefacts in cooperative design

The role of material artefacts in supporting distributed and co-located work practices has been well acknowledged within HCI and CSCW research. In this paper, we show that in addition to their ecological, coordinative and organizational support, artefacts also play an 'experiential' role. In this case, artefacts not only improve efficiency or have a purely functional role (e.g. allowing people to complete tasks quickly), but the materiality, use and manifestations of these artefacts bring quality and richness to people's performance and help them make better sense of their everyday lives. In a domain such as industrial design, such artefacts play an important role for supporting creativity and innovation. Based on our ethnographic fieldwork on understanding cooperative design practices of industrial design students and researchers, we describe several experiential practices that are supported by design-related artefacts such as sketches, drawings, physical models and explorative prototypes -- used and developed in designers' everyday work. Our main intention in carrying out this kind of research is to develop technologies to support designers' everyday practices. We believe that with the emergence of ubiquitous computing, there is a growing need to focus on the personal, social and creative side of people's everyday experiences. By focusing on the experiential practices of designers, we can provide a much broader view in the design of new interactive technologies.

The effectiveness of an intervention in reducing risk of dioxin exposure in Da Nang : changes in community knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices after 2.5 years

Introduction Environmental and biological samples taken around Da Nang Air Base have shown elevated levels of dioxin over many years [1-3]. A pre-intervention knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey (2009), a risk reduction program (2010) and a post intervention KAP survey (2011) were undertaken in four wards surrounding Danang Airbase. A follow-up evaluation was undertaken in 2013. Methods A KAP survey was implemented among 400 randomly selected food handlers. Eleven indepth interviews and four focus group discussions were also undertaken. Results The knowledge of respondents remained positive and/or improved at 2.5 years follow-up. There were no significant differences in attitudes toward preventing dioxin exposure across surveys; most respondents were positive in all three surveys. An increase in households (69.5%) undertaking measures to prevent exposure was observed, which was higher than in the pre-intervention survey (39.6%) and post- intervention survey (60.4%) (χ2 = 95.6; p < 0.001). The proportion of respondents practicing appropriate preventive measures was also significantly improved. Conclusions Despite most of the intervention program’s activities ceasing in 2010, the risk reduction program has resulted in positive outcomes over the longer-term, with many knowledge and attitude measures remaining stable or imporving. Some KAP indicators decreased, but these KAP indicators were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels.

The Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster and percetions of health risk communication : a case study

This case study was conducted to explore the perceptions of health risk messages sent by the Japanese Government following the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster. The content of health risk messages from the Japanese Government and the Japanese national broadcaster (NHK) were analysed and semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of Tokyo residents. Initially, participants trusted these messages but as the crisis unfolded they became sceptical about the messages. Participants felt the messages did not communicate health risk information effectively because the messages were; not supported by evidence, inconsistent, delayed and changed over time. Despite widespread access to the internet, social media and mobile telephones, most participants relied on television news for information about the health risks. The Japanese Government urgently needs to re-build trust by engaging the community in the planning and development phases of health risk communication strategies.

Physicality and cooperative design

CSCW researchers have increasingly come to realize that the material work setting and its population of artefacts play a crucial part in coordination of distributed or co-located work. This paper uses the notion of physicality as a basis to understand cooperative work. Using examples from an ongoing fieldwork on cooperative design practices, it provides a conceptual understanding of physicality and shows that material settings and co-workers’ working practices play an important role in understanding the physicality of cooperative design.

Designing awareness support for distributed cooperative design teams

Motivation Awareness is an integral part of remote collaborative work and has been an important theme within the CSCW research. Our project aims at understanding and mediating non-verbal cues between remote participants involved in a design project. Research approach Within the AMIDA project we focus on distributed 'cooperative design' teams. We especially focus on the 'material' signals - signals in which people communicate through material artefacts, locations and their embodied actions. We apply an ethnographic approach to understand the role of physical artefacts in co-located naturalistic design setting. Based on the results we will generate important implications to support remote design work. We plan to develop a mixed-reality interface supported by a shared awareness display. This awareness display will provide information about the activities happening in the design room to remotely located participants. Findings/Design Our preliminary investigation with real-world design teams suggests that both the materiality of designers' work settings and their social practices play an important role in understanding these material signals that are at play. Originality/Value Most research supporting computer mediated communication have focused on either face-to-face or linguistically oriented communication paradigms. Our research focuses on mediating the non-verbal, material cues for supporting collaborative activities without impoverishing what designers do in their day to day working lives. Take away message An ethnographic approach allows us to understand the naturalistic practices of design teams, which can lead to designing effective technologies to support group work. In that respect, the findings of our research will have a generic value beyond the application domain chosen (design teams).

Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. Methods Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m) ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s) experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual–perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. Conclusions These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

Wind speed perception and risk

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.