Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Including or excluding conflicts of interest among expert peer reviewers had little impact on funding success, a case study from Australia

Competition for research funding is intense and the opinions of an expert peer reviewer can mean the difference between success and failure in securing funding. The allocation of expert peer reviewers is therefore vitally important and funding agencies strive to avoid using reviewers who have real or perceived conflicts of interest. This article examines the impact of including or excluding peer reviewers based on their conflicts of interest, and the final ranking of funding proposals. Two 7-person review panels assessed a sample of National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia proposals in Basic Science or Public Health. Using a pre-post comparison, the proposals were first scored after the exclusion of reviewers with a high or medium conflict, and re-scored after the return of reviewers with medium conflicts. The main outcome measures are the agreements in ranks and funding success before and after excluding the medium conflicts. Including medium conflicts of interest had little impact on the ranks or funding success. The Bland–Altman 95% limits of agreement were ± 3.3 ranks and ± 3.4 ranks in the two panels which both assessed 36 proposals. Overall there were three proposals (4%) that had a reversed funding outcome after including medium conflicts. Relaxing the conflict of interest rules would increase the number of expert reviewers included in the panel discussions which could increase the quality of peer review and make it easier to find reviewers.

Risk management and high reliability : a case study of Australian airport management

This thesis investigated risk management and organisational reliability in airports from the perspective of complex sociotechnical systems (CSSs). Two research studies were undertaken, the first focusing on the processes by which disruptive events occur, are detected and responded to; the second exploring the presence of organisational reliability traits within airports. A key result of the studies was the development of new approach: the Critical Incident Disturbance Process model that detailed a means to understand and analyse how disruptions in complex CSSs might be influenced by vulnerability reduction and enhanced risk management. Further, this thesis identified and defined the concept of 'compartmentalised reliability' in complex sociotechnical systems, extending existing knowledge of high reliability theory.

Improving information in project appraisal using hedonic pricing : a case study of marina berthing charges

Hedonic pricing techniques can be used to generate quantitative information useful to the project appraiser at various stages of the project cycle, most notably project formulation and investment appraisal. To illustrate, a hedonic pricing model is applied to marina berthing charges in England and Wales. The technique determines the relevant marina facilities that are reflected in marina rental price. The contribution of the key marina facilities is expressed in monetary terms as the contribution to cost per overall rental price per foot.

Regulating Workplace Risks: A Comparative Study of Inspection Regimes in Times of Change

Regulating Workplace Risks is a study of regulatory inspection of occupational health and safety (OHS) and its management in five countries – Australia, Canada (Québec), France, Sweden and the UK – during a time of major change. It examines the implications of the shift from specification to process based regulation, in which attention has been increasingly directed to the means of managing OHS more systematically at a time in which a major restructuring of work has occurred in response to the globalised economy. These changes provide both the context and material for a wider discussion of the nature of regulation and regulatory inspection and their role in protecting the health, safety and well-being of workers in advanced market economies.

Potential-dependent surface-enhanced resonance raman spectroscopy at nanostructured TiO2 : A case study on cytochrome b5

Abstract: Nanostructured titanium dioxide (TiO2) electrodes, prepared by anodization of titanium, are employed to probe the electron-transfer process of cytochrome b5 (cyt b5) by surface-enhanced resonance Raman (SERR) spectroscopy. Concomitant with the increased nanoscopic surface roughness of TiO2, achieved by raising the anodization voltage from 10 to 20 V, the enhancement factor increases from 2.4 to 8.6, which is rationalized by calculations of the electric field enhancement. Cyt b 5 is immobilized on TiO2 under preservation of its native structure but it displays a non-ideal redox behavior due to the limited conductivity of the electrode material. The electron-transfer efficiency which depends on the crystalline phase of TiO2 has to be improved by appropriate doping for applications in bioelectrochemistry. Nanostructured TiO2 electrodes are employed to probe the electron-transfer process of cytochrome b5 by surface-enhanced resonance Raman spectroscopy. Concomitant with the increased nanoscopic surface roughness of TiO2, the enhancement factor increases, which can be attributed to the electric field enhancement. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Seed germination may explain differences in invasiveness and prevalence : a case study using cat's claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati)

High germination rates and rapid germination behavior in response to different environmental cues are traits that may be associated with invasiveness. Cat’s claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), a Weed of National Significance has two forms, a long-pod (LP) form and a short-pod (SP) from. The LP form occurs in only a few localities in southeast Queensland while the SP form is widely distributed in Queensland and New South Wales. The aims of this investigation were: to evaluate whether there are significant differences in germination traits between the two forms of cat’s claw creeper; and if there are any significant differences, to find out whether the differences in germination can be related to prevalence and invasiveness levels for the two forms. Long pod and short pod seeds collected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 from various localities in Qld were germinated in growth chambers in early 2013. The growth chambers were set to 10/20 ºC, 15/25 ºC and 20/30 ºC temperature cycles. Seeds from 2009-2012 of either form did not germinate, while for the fresh seeds (2013), SP exhibited significantly higher total germination percentage and rates than LP. Assuming that the two forms were introduced in Australia at around the same period, these results could explain why SP is widely distributed (and therefore more invasive) in Qld and NSW while LP is only confined to a few localities in southeast Qld.

A case study of utilising concept knowledge in a topic specific document collection

The use of ‘topic’ concepts has shown improved search performance, given a query, by bringing together relevant documents which use different terms to describe a higher level concept. In this paper, we propose a method for discovering and utilizing concepts in indexing and search for a domain specific document collection being utilized in industry. This approach differs from others in that we only collect focused concepts to build the concept space and that instead of turning a user’s query into a concept based query, we experiment with different techniques of combining the original query with a concept query. We apply the proposed approach to a real-world document collection and the results show that in this scenario the use of concept knowledge at index and search can improve the relevancy of results.

Sustainable innovation for Queensland’s housing design : a case study

This research provides an assessment tool that assists the selection process of sustainability in detached suburban housing. It investigates the implications of using different design and construction methods including architecturally designed houses, developer housing and prefabricated houses. The study simulates one example of the three types of houses that have been chosen to fulfil a real client brief on a real site on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland Australia. Criteria for sustainability assessment are formulated based on literature reviews, exemplar designs and similar research projects for which the houses can be adequately evaluated. This criterion covers aspects including energy use, materials and thermal performance. The data is collected using computer models and sustainability assessment software to compare and draw conclusions on the success of each house. Our study indicates that architecturally designed housing with prefabricated building techniques are a better alternative to generic developer style housing. Our research provides an insight into the implications of three key elements of sustainability including energy use, materials and thermal performance. Designers, builders, developers and home-buyers are given an insight into some options currently available on the housing market and how the choices made during early design stages can provide a more positive environmental impact.