Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

Nonlinear analysis for the pre- and post-yield behaviour of a composite structure with the refined plastic hinge approach

The computational technique of the full ranges of the second-order inelastic behaviour evaluation of steel-concrete composite structure is not always sought forgivingly, and therefore it hinders the development and application of the performance-based design approach for the composite structure. To this end, this paper addresses of the advanced computational technique of the higher-order element with the refined plastic hinges to capture the all-ranges behaviour of an entire steel-concrete composite structure. Moreover, this paper presents the efficient and economical cross-section analysis to evaluate the element section capacity of the non-uniform and arbitrary composite section subjected to the axial and bending interaction. Based on the same single algorithm, it can accurately and effectively evaluate nearly continuous interaction capacity curve from decompression to pure bending technically, which is the important capacity range but highly nonlinear. Hence, this cross-section analysis provides the simple but unique algorithm for the design approach. In summary, the present nonlinear computational technique can simulate both material and geometric nonlinearities of the composite structure in the accurate, efficient and reliable fashion, including partial shear connection and gradual yielding at pre-yield stage, plasticity and strain-hardening effect due to axial and bending interaction at post-yield stage, loading redistribution, second-order P-δ and P-Δ effect, and also the stiffness and strength deterioration. And because of its reliable and accurate behavioural evaluation, the present technique can be extended for the design of the high-strength composite structure and potentially for the fibre-reinforced concrete structure.

A dosimetric retrospective planning study comparing volumetric arc therapy (VMAT) and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) treatment plans for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Purpose A retrospective planning study comparing volumetric arc therapy (VMAT) and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) treatment plans for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and materials Five randomly selected early stage lung cancer patients were included in the study. For each patient, four plans were created: the SBRT plan and three VMAT plans using different optimisation methodologies. A total of 20 different plans were evaluated. The dose parameters of dose conformity results and the target dose constraints results were compared for these plans. Results The mean planning target volume (PTV) for all the plans (SBRT and VMAT) was 18·3 cm3, with a range from 15·6 to 20·1 cm3. The maximum dose tolerance to 1 cc of all the plans was within 140% (84 Gy) of the prescribed dose, and 95% of the PTV of all the plans received 100% of the prescribed dose (60 Gy). In all the plans, 99% of the PTV received a dose >90% of the prescribed dose, and the mean dose in all the plans ranged from 67 to 72 Gy. The planning target dose conformity for the SBRT and the VMAT (0°, 15° collimator single arc plans and dual arc) plans showed the tightness of the prescription isodose conformity to the target. Conclusions SBRT and VMAT are radiotherapy approaches that increase doses to small tumour targets without increasing doses to the organs at risk. Although VMAT offers an alternative to SBRT for NSCLC and the potential advantage of VMAT is the reduced treatment times over SBRT, the statistical results show that there was no significant difference between the SBRT and VMAT optimised plans in terms of dose conformity and organ-at-risk sparing.

Single layer bismuth iodide: Computational exploration of structural, electrical, mechanical and optical properties

Layered graphitic materials exhibit new intriguing electronic structure and the search for new types of two-dimensional (2D) monolayer is of importance for the fabrication of next generation miniature electronic and optoelectronic devices. By means of density functional theory (DFT) computations, we investigated in detail the structural, electronic, mechanical and optical properties of the single-layer bismuth iodide (BiI3) nanosheet. Monolayer BiI3 is dynamically stable as confirmed by the computed phonon spectrum. The cleavage energy (Ecl) and interlayer coupling strength of bulk BiI3 are comparable to the experimental values of graphite, which indicates that the exfoliation of BiI3 is highly feasible. The obtained stress-strain curve shows that the BiI3 nanosheet is a brittle material with a breaking strain of 13%. The BiI3 monolayer has an indirect band gap of 1.57 eV with spin orbit coupling (SOC), indicating its potential application for solar cells. Furthermore, the band gap of BiI3 monolayer can be modulated by biaxial strain. Most interestingly, interfacing electrically active graphene with monolayer BiI3 nanosheet leads to enhanced light absorption compared to that in pure monolayer BiI3 nanosheet, highlighting its great potential applications in photonics and photovoltaic solar cells.

Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.

Association between endometriosis and the interleukin 1A (IL1A) locus

STUDY QUESTION Are single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the interleukin 1A (IL1A) gene locus associated with endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found evidence for strong association between IL1A SNPs and endometriosis risk. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Genetic factors contribute substantially to the complex aetiology of endometriosis and the disease has an estimated heritability of ∼51%. We, and others, have conducted genome-wide association (GWA) studies for endometriosis, which identified a total of nine independent risk loci. Recently, two small Japanese studies reported eight SNPs (rs6542095, rs11677416, rs3783550, rs3783525, rs3783553, rs2856836, rs1304037 and rs17561) at the IL1A gene locus as suggestively associated with endometriosis risk. There is also evidence of a link between inflammation and endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION We sought to further investigate the eight IL1A SNPs for association with endometriosis using an independent sample of 3908 endometriosis cases and 8568 controls of European and Japanese ancestry. The study was conducted between October 2013 and July 2014. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS By leveraging GWA data from our previous multi-ethnic GWA meta-analysis for endometriosis, we imputed variants in the IL1A region, using a recent 1000 Genomes reference panel. After combining summary statistics for the eight SNPs from our European and Japanese imputed data with the published results, a fixed-effect meta-analysis was performed. An additional meta-analysis restricted to endometriosis cases with moderate-to-severe (revised American Fertility Society stage 3 or 4) disease versus controls was also performed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE All eight IL1A SNPs successfully replicated at P < 0.014 in the European imputed data with concordant direction and similar size to the effects reported in the original Japanese studies. Of these, three SNPs (rs6542095, rs3783550 and rs3783525) also showed association with endometriosis at a nominal P < 0.05 in our independent Japanese sample. Fixed-effect meta-analysis of the eight SNPs for moderate-to-severe endometriosis produced a genome-wide significant association for rs6542095 (odds ratio = 1.21; 95% confidence interval = 1.13–1.29; P = 3.43 × 10−8). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The meta-analysis for moderate-to-severe endometriosis included results of moderate-to-severe endometriosis cases from our European data sets and all endometriosis cases from the Japanese data sets, as disease stage information was not available for endometriosis cases in the Japanese data sets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS SNP rs6542095 is located ∼2.3 kb downstream of the IL1A gene and ∼6.9 kb upstream of cytoskeleton-associated protein 2-like (CKAP2L) gene. The IL1A gene encodes the IL1a protein, a member of the interleukin 1 cytokine family which is involved in various immune responses and inflammatory processes. These results provide important replication in an independent Japanese sample and, for the first time, association of the IL1A locus in endometriosis patients of European ancestry. SNPs within the IL1A locus may regulate other genes, but if IL1A is the target, our results provide supporting evidence for a link between inflammatory responses and the pathogenesis of endometriosis. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.

Functional evaluation of genetic variants associated with endometriosis near GREB1

STUDY QUESTION: Do DNA variants in the growth regulation by estrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1) region regulate endometrial GREB1 expression and increase the risk of developing endometriosis in women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong association with endometriosis at the GREB1 locus although we did not detect altered GREB1 expression in endometriosis patients with defined genotypes. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Genome-wide association studies have identified the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 for increasing endometriosis risk. The differential expression of GREB1 has also been reported by others in association with endometriosis disease phenotype. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Fine mapping studies comprehensively evaluated SNPs within the GREB1 region in a large-scale data set (>2500 cases and >4000 controls). Publicly available bioinformatics tools were employed to functionally annotate SNPs showing the strongest association signal with endometriosis risk. Endometrial GREB1 mRNA and protein expression was studied with respect to phases of the menstrual cycle (n = 2-45 per cycle stage) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis for significant SNPs were undertaken for GREB1 [mRNA (n = 94) and protein (n = 44) in endometrium]. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants in this study are females who provided blood and/or endometrial tissue samples in a hospital setting. The key SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom MassARRAY. The functional roles and regulatory annotations for identified SNPs are predicted by various publicly available bioinformatics tools. Endometrial GREB1 expression work employed qRT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry studies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Fine mapping results identified a number of SNPs showing stronger association (0.004 < P < 0.032) with endometriosis risk than the original GWAS SNP (rs13394619) (P = 0.034). Some of these SNPs were predicted to have functional roles, for example, interaction with transcription factor motifs. The haplotype (a combination of alleles) formed by the risk alleles from two common SNPs showed significant association (P = 0.026) with endometriosis and epistasis analysis showed no evidence for interaction between the two SNPs, suggesting an additive effect of SNPs on endometriosis risk. In normal human endometrium, GREB1 protein expression was altered depending on the cycle stage (significantly different in late proliferative versus late secretory, P < 0.05) and cell type (glandular epithelium, not stromal cells). However, GREB1 expression in endometriosis cases versus controls and eQTL analyses did not reveal any significant changes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In silico prediction tools are generally based on cell lines different to our tissue and disease of interest. Functional annotations drawn from these analyses should be considered with this limitation in mind. We identified cell-specific and hormone-specific changes in GREB1 protein expression. The lack of a significant difference observed following our GREB1 expression studies may be the result of moderate power on mixed cell populations in the endometrial tissue samples. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study further implicates the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 and the GREB1 gene with involvement in endometriosis risk. More detailed functional studies are required to determine the role of the novel GREB1 transcripts in endometriosis pathophysiology. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for this work was provided by NHMRC Project Grants APP1012245, APP1026033, APP1049472 and APP1046880. There are no competing interests.

No evidence for genetic association with the let-7 microRNA-binding site or other common KRAS variants in risk of endometriosis

STUDY QUESTION Is there a contribution of the minor allele at the KRAS single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs61764370 in the let-7 microRNA-binding site to endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found no evidence for association between endometriosis risk and rs61764370 or any other SNPs in KRAS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The rs61764370 SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the KRAS gene is predicted to disrupt a complementary binding site (LCS6) for the let-7 microRNA, and was recently reported to be at a high frequency (31%) in 132 women of varying ancestry with endometriosis compared with frequencies in a database of population controls (up to 7.6% depending on ancestry), suggesting a strong effect of this KRAS SNP in the aetiology of endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION This was a case-control study with a total of 11 206 subjects. The study was performed between February 2012 and July 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGAND METHODS We first investigated a possible association between common markers in KRAS and endometriosis risk from our genome-wide association (GWA) data in 3194 surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 7060 controls of European ancestry. Although rs61764370 was not genotyped on the GWA arrays, five SNPs typed in the study were highly correlated with this variant. The rs61764370 and two SNPs highly correlated with rs61764370 were then genotyped in 933 endometriosis cases and 952 controls using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was no evidence for an association between rs61764370 and endometriosis risk P = 0.411 and odds ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence intervals: 0.88-1.36). We also found no evidence for an association between the highly correlated SNP rs17387019 and endometriosis. Their minor allele frequencies in cases and controls were of 0.087-0.091 similar to the population frequency reported previously for this variant in controls. Analyses of endometriosis cases with revised American Fertility Society stage III/IV disease also showed no evidence for an association between these SNPs and endometriosis risk. LIMITATIONS AND REASONS FOR CAUTION The GWA and genotyped data sets were not independent since individuals and cases from some families overlap. Controls in our GWA study were not screened for endometriosis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The key SNP, rs61764370, was genotyped in a subset of samples. Our results do not support the suggestion that carrying the minor allele at rs61764370 contributes to a significant number of endometriosis cases and rs61764370 is, therefore, unlikely to be a useful marker of endometriosis risk. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.

Evaluation of polymorphisms in predicted target sites for micro RNAs differentially expressed in endometriosis

Previous microarray analyses identified 22 microRNAs (miRNAs) differentially expressed in paired ectopic and eutopic endometrium of women with and without endometriosis. To investigate further the role of these miRNAs in women with endometriosis, we conducted an association study aiming to explore the relationship between endometriosis risk and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA target sites for these differentially expressed miRNAs. A panel of 102 SNPs in the predicted miRNA binding sites were evaluated for an endometriosis association study and an ingenuity pathway analysis was performed. Fourteen rare variants were identified in this study. We found SNP rs14647 in the Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome candidate gene1 (WHSC1) 3'UTR (untranslated region) was associated with endometriosis-related infertility presenting an odds ratio of 12.2 (95% confidence interval = 2.4-60.7, P = 9.03 x 10(-5)). SNP haplotype AGG in the solute carrier family 22, member 23 (SLC22A23) 3'UTR was associated with endometriosis-related infertility and more severe disease. With the individual genotyping data, ingenuity pathways analysis identified the tumour necrosis factor and cyclin-dependant kinase inhibitor as major factors in the molecular pathways. Significant associations between WHSC1 alleles and endometriosis-related infertility and SLC22A23 haplotypes and the disease severe stage were identified. These findings may help focus future research on subphenotypes of this disease. Replication studies in independent large sample sets to confirm and characterize the involvement of the gene variation in the pathogenesis of endometriosis are needed.

Single household domestic water heater design and control utilising PV energy: The untapped energy storage solution

Photovoltaic (PV) panels and electric domestic water heater with storage (DWH) are widely used in households in many countries. However, DWH should be explored as an energy storage mechanism before batteries when households have excess PV energy. Through a residential case study in Queensland, Australia, this paper presents a new optimized design and control solution to reduce water heating costs by utilizing existing DWH energy storage capacity and increasing PV self-consumption for water heating. The solution is produced by evaluating the case study energy profile and numerically maximizing the use of PV for DWH. A conditional probability matrix for different solar insolation and hot water usage days is developed to test the solution. Compared to other tariffs, this solution shows cost reduction from 20.8% to 63.3% This new solution could encourage solar households move to a more economical and carbon neutral water heating method.

A simple correction for multiple testing for single-nucleotide polymorphisms in linkage disequilibrium with each other

In this report, we describe a simple correction for multiple testing of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with each other, on the basis of the spectral decomposition (SpD) of matrices of pairwise LD between SNPs. This method provides a useful alternative to more computationally intensive permutation tests. Additionally, output from SNPSpD includes eigenvalues, principal-component coefficients, and factor "loadings" after varimax rotation, enabling the selection of a subset of SNPs that optimize the information in a genomic region.

Robust automatic face clustering in news video

Clustering identities in a video is a useful task to aid in video search, annotation and retrieval, and cast identification. However, reliably clustering faces across multiple videos is challenging task due to variations in the appearance of the faces, as videos are captured in an uncontrolled environment. A person's appearance may vary due to session variations including: lighting and background changes, occlusions, changes in expression and make up. In this paper we propose the novel Local Total Variability Modelling (Local TVM) approach to cluster faces across a news video corpus; and incorporate this into a novel two stage video clustering system. We first cluster faces within a single video using colour, spatial and temporal cues; after which we use face track modelling and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to cluster faces across the entire corpus. We compare different face recognition approaches within this framework. Experiments on a news video database show that the Local TVM technique is able effectively model the session variation observed in the data, resulting in improved clustering performance, with much greater computational efficiency than other methods.

Moving from evaluation to trial: How do SMEs start adopting Cloud ERP?

The advent of cloud technology involving low subscription overheads cost has provided small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with the opportunity to adopt new cloud-based corporate-wide systems (i.e., cloud ERP). This technology, operating through subscription-based services, has now provided SMEs with a complete range of IT applications that were once restricted to larger organisations. As anecdotal evidences suggest, SMEs are increasingly adopting cloud-based ERP software. The selection of an ERP is a complex process involving multiple stages and stakeholders, suggesting the importance of closer examination of cloud ERP adoption in SMEs. Yet, prior studies have predominantly treated technology adoption as a single activity and largely ignored the issue of ERP adoption in SMEs. Understanding of the process nature of the adoption and the factors that are important in each stage of the adoption potentially may result in guiding SMEs to make well-informed decisions throughout the ERP selection process. Thus, our study proposes that the adoption of cloud ERP should be examined as a multi-stage process. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Ettlie’s adoption stages, as well as employing data gathered from 162 owners of SMEs, our findings show that the factors that influence the intention to adopt cloud ERP vary significantly across adoptive stages.

Does the addition of Clonidine to lumbar nerve root blocks improve outcome? A randomised, prospective, single-blinded controlled pilot study

Purpose To evaluate if adding clonidine to a standard nerve root block containing local anaesthetic and steroid improved the outcome of patients with severe lumbar nerve root pain secondary to MRI proven lumbar disc prolapse. Methods We undertook a single blind, prospective, randomised controlled trial evaluating 100 consecutive patients with nerve root pain secondary to lumbar disc prolapse undergoing trans-foraminal epidural steroid injection either with or without the addition of clonidine. 50 patients were allocated to each arm of the study. The primary outcome measure was the avoidance of a second procedure- repeat injection or micro-discectomy surgery. Secondary outcome measures were also studied: pain scores for leg and back pain using a visual analogue scale (VAS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) and the Measure Your Own Medical Outcome Profile (MYMOP). Follow up was carried out at 6 weeks, 6 months and 1 year. Results No serious complications occurred. Of the 50 patients who received the addition of clonidine, 56% were classified as successful injections, with no further intervention required, as opposed to 40% who received the standard injection. This difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.109, chi-squared test). All secondary measures showed no statistically significant differences between the groups except curiously, the standard group who had been classified as successful had better leg pain relief than the clonidine group (p=0.026) at 1 year. Conclusions This pilot study has shown a 16% treatment effect with adding clonidine to lumbar nerve root blocks and that it is a safe injectate for this purpose.