Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Synthesis of 19F nucleic acid–polymer conjugates as real-time MRI probes of biorecognition

Polymer-DNA conjugates in which one nucleic acid strand contains fluorine-substituted nucleobases have been prepared and characterised. The efficacy of these novel F-19 nucleic acid-polymer conjugates as sensitive and selective in vitro reporters of DNA binding events is demonstrated through a number of rapid-acquisition MR sequences. The conjugates respond readily and in a sequence specific manner to external target oligonucleotide sequences by changes in hybridisation. In turn, these structural changes in polymer-nucleotide conjugates translate into responses which are detectable in fluorine relaxation and diffusion switches, and which can be monitored by in vitro Spin Echo and DOSY NMR spectroscopy. Although complementary to conventional FRET methods, the excellent diagnostic properties of fluorine nuclei make this approach a versatile and sensitive probe of molecular structure and conformation in polymeric assemblies.