Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

The use of neurocognitive methods in assessing health communication messages: A systematic review

We review 20 studies that examined persuasive processing and outcomes of health messages using neurocognitive measures. The results suggest that cognitive processes and neural activity in regions thought to reflect self-related processing may be more prominent in the persuasive process of self-relevant messages. Furthermore, activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), the superior temporal gyrus, and the middle frontal gyrus were identified as predictors of message effectiveness, with the MPFC accounting for additional variance in behaviour change beyond that accounted for by self-report measures. Incorporating neurocognitive measures may provide a more comprehensive understanding of the processing and outcomes of health messages.

Developing standardized methods to assess cost of healthy and unhealthy (current) diets in Australia

Unhealthy diets contribute at least 14% to Australia's disease burden and are driven by ‘obesogenic’ food environments. Compliance with dietary recommendations is particularly poor amongst disadvantaged populations including low socioeconomic groups, those living in rural/remote areas and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The perception that healthy foods are expensive is a key barrier to healthy choices and a major determinant of diet-related health inequities. Available state/regional/local data (limited and non-comparable) suggests that, despite basic healthy foods not incurring GST, the cost of healthy food is higher and has increased more rapidly than unhealthy food over the last 15 years in Australia. However, there were no nationally standardised tools or protocols to benchmark, compare or monitor food prices and affordability in Australia. Globally, we are leading work to develop and test approaches to assess the price differential of healthy and less-healthy (current) diets under the food price module of the International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS). This presentation describes contextualization of the INFORMAS approach to develop standardised Australian tools, survey protocols and data collection and analysis systems. The ‘healthy diet basket’ was based on the Australian Foundation Diet, 1 The ‘current diet basket’ and specific items included in each basket, were based on recent national dietary survey data.2 Data collection methods were piloted. The final tools and protocols were then applied to measure the price and affordability of healthy and less healthy (current) diets of different household groups in diverse communities across the nation. We have compared results for different geographical locations/population subgroups in Australia and assessed these against international INFORMAS benchmarks. The results inform the development of policy and practice, including those relevant to mooted changes to the GST base, to promote nutrition and healthy weight and prevent chronic disease in Australia.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence revolutionizing wildlife monitoring and conservation

Surveying threatened and invasive species to obtain accurate population estimates is an important but challenging task that requires a considerable investment in time and resources. Estimates using existing ground-based monitoring techniques, such as camera traps and surveys performed on foot, are known to be resource intensive, potentially inaccurate and imprecise, and difficult to validate. Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), artificial intelligence and miniaturized thermal imaging systems represent a new opportunity for wildlife experts to inexpensively survey relatively large areas. The system presented in this paper includes thermal image acquisition as well as a video processing pipeline to perform object detection, classification and tracking of wildlife in forest or open areas. The system is tested on thermal video data from ground based and test flight footage, and is found to be able to detect all the target wildlife located in the surveyed area. The system is flexible in that the user can readily define the types of objects to classify and the object characteristics that should be considered during classification.

Critical Discourse Analysis research methods for the English classroom

Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) is an approach to analysing the discourses that operate in social contexts, such as classrooms in schools, and their material effects on people, such as teachers and learners. CDA offers a range of ways of engaging with the relationship between texts in context and the power they exercise. In this article, I overview key approaches and provide detail of Fairclough’s (1992, 2003) textually-oriented, linguistic method of CDA, with an example from my own research. I offer a challenge for English teachers, as researchers, to ‘make strange’ the familiar world of their classroom work, and in so doing, identify possibilities for productive change.

What consumers think, do and say about antibiotic use

Objective The objectives of this study were to investigate (1) the attitudes and behaviours of Australian consumers in antibiotic use, and (2) their understanding of antibiotic resistance. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with consumers in May/June 2015. Convenience sampling was used to recruit consumers between 18–54 years old. Thirty-two consumers were interviewed. Transcripts were analysed to identify themes. Lessons Learned Dominant themes for attitudes and behaviours regarding antibiotics were (a) avoidance of antibiotic use unless clinically warranted; (b) antibiotics were useful but “weakened the body”; and (c) use of complementary medicines as adjuncts to antibiotics or to strengthen the immune system. Key information needs were (a) unambiguous instructions from GPs when prescribed antibiotics, to avoid inappropriate medicine-taking behaviour; (b) rationale for antibiotic selection; and (c) treatment duration. Antibiotic resistance was conceptualised in three ways: as a property of the body (body becomes resistant to antibiotics); the medication (antibiotic no longer effective); and the bacteria (bacteria is resistant). Antibiotic resistance was perceived as an issue that would only affect the wider community in the future, although most recognised that it is a current challenge for hospitals. Personal good health and/or avoidance of antibiotics were perceived as insurance against being adversely affected by antibiotic resistance. Implications A structured survey (discrete choice experiment) will be developed from these findings to investigate how consumers trade-off on factors influencing antibiotic use. Public health campaigns promoting conservation of antibiotics can benefit from these findings.

The doctrinal method: Incorporating interdisciplinary methods in reforming the law

The doctrinal methodology is in a period of change and transition. Realising that the scope of the doctrinal method is too constricting, academic lawyers are becoming eclectic in their use of research method. In this transitional time, legal scholars are increasingly infusing evidence (and methods) from other disciplines into their reasoning to bolster their reform recommendations. This article considers three examples of the interplay of the discipline of law with other disciplines in the pursuit of law reform. Firstly the article reviews studies on the extent of methodologies and reformist frameworks in PhD research in Australia. Secondly it analyses a ‘snapshot’ of recently published Australian journal articles on criminal law reform. Thirdly, it focuses on the law reform commissions, those independent government committees that play such an important role in law reform in common law jurisdictions. This examination demonstrates that while the doctrinal core of legal scholarship remains intact, legal scholars are endeavouring to accommodate statistics, comparative perspectives, social science evidence and methods, and theoretical analysis, within the legal research framework, in order to provide additional ballast to the recommendations for reform.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.

Osteoporosis medication dispensing for older Australian women from 2002 to 2010: Influences of publications, guidelines, marketing activities and policy

Purpose Developments in anti-osteoporosis medications (AOMs) have led to changes in guidelines and policy, which, along with media and marketing strategies, have had an impact upon the prescribing of AOM. The aim was to examine patterns of AOM dispensing in older women (aged 76–81 years at baseline) from 2002 to 2010. Methods Administrative claims data were used to describe AOM dispensing in 4649 participants (born in 1921–1926 and still alive in 2011) in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The patterns were interpreted in the context of changes in guidelines, indications for subsidy, publications (scholarly and general media), and marketing activities. Results Total use of AOM increased from 134 DDD/1000/day in 2002 to 216 DDD/1000/day in 2007 but then decreased to 184 DDD/1000/day in 2010. Alendronate was the most commonly dispensed AOM but decreased from 2007, while use of risedronate (2002 onward), strontium ranelate (2007 onward) and zoledronic acid (2008 onward) increased. Etidronate and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) prescriptions gradually decreased over time. The decline in alendronate dispensing coincided with increases of other bisphosphonates and publicity about potential adverse effects of bisphosphonates, despite relaxing indications for bone density testing and subsidy for AOM. Conclusions Overall dispense of AOM from 2002 reached a peak in 2007 and thereafter declined despite increases in therapeutic options and improved subsidised access. The recent decline in overall AOM dispensing seems to be explained largely by negative publicity rather than specific changes in guidelines and policy.

The role of 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency in promoting insulin resistance and inflammation in patients with chronic kidney disease: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Approximately 50% of patients with stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease are 25-hydroxyvitamin D insufficient, and this prevalence increases with falling glomerular filtration rate. Vitamin D is now recognised as having pleiotropic roles beyond bone and mineral homeostasis, with the vitamin D receptor and metabolising machinery identified in multiple tissues. Worryingly, recent observational data has highlighted an association between hypovitaminosis D and increased cardiovascular mortality, possibly mediated via vitamin D effects on insulin resistance and inflammation. The main hypothesis of this study is that oral Vitamin D supplementation will ameliorate insulin resistance in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease stage 3 when compared to placebo. Secondary hypotheses will test whether this is associated with decreased inflammation and bone/adipocyte-endocrine dysregulation. METHODS/DESIGN This study is a single-centre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. Inclusion criteria include; estimated glomerular filtration rate 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2); aged >or=18 on entry to study; and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L. Patients will be randomised 1:1 to receive either oral cholecalciferol 2000IU/day or placebo for 6 months. The primary outcome will be an improvement in insulin sensitivity, measured by hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp. Secondary outcome measures will include serum parathyroid hormone, cytokines (Interleukin-1beta, Interleukin-6, Tumour Necrosis Factor alpha), adiponectin (total and High Molecular Weight), osteocalcin (carboxylated and under-carboxylated), peripheral blood mononuclear cell Nuclear Factor Kappa-B p65 binding activity, brachial artery reactivity, aortic pulse wave velocity and waveform analysis, and indirect calorimetry. All outcome measures will be performed at baseline and end of study. DISCUSSION To date, no randomised controlled trial has been performed in pre-dialysis CKD patients to study the correlation between vitamin D status with supplementation, insulin resistance and markers of adverse cardiovascular risk. We remain hopeful that cholecalciferol may be a safe intervention, with health benefits beyond those related to bone-mineral homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000246280.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Instagrammatics and digital methods: Studying visual social media, from selfies and GIFs to memes and emoji

Visual content is a critical component of everyday social media, on platforms explicitly framed around the visual (Instagram and Vine), on those offering a mix of text and images in myriad forms (Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr), and in apps and profiles where visual presentation and provision of information are important considerations. However, despite being so prominent in forms such as selfies, looping media, infographics, memes, online videos, and more, sociocultural research into the visual as a central component of online communication has lagged behind the analysis of popular, predominantly text-driven social media. This paper underlines the increasing importance of visual elements to digital, social, and mobile media within everyday life, addressing the significant research gap in methods for tracking, analysing, and understanding visual social media as both image-based and intertextual content. In this paper, we build on our previous methodological considerations of Instagram in isolation to examine further questions, challenges, and benefits of studying visual social media more broadly, including methodological and ethical considerations. Our discussion is intended as a rallying cry and provocation for further research into visual (and textual and mixed) social media content, practices, and cultures, mindful of both the specificities of each form, but also, and importantly, the ongoing dialogues and interrelations between them as communication forms.

Author response: "Missed opportunity related to statistical methods"

"We thank MrGilder for his considered comments and suggestions for alternative analyses of our data. We also appreciate Mr Gilder’s support of our call for larger studies to contribute to the evidence base for preoperative loading with high-carbohydrate fluids..."