Estimates on the coverage of parameter space using populations of models

In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.

Engineered nanomaterials: Knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, toxicity, and future directions

The aim of this study is to identify current knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, and toxicity of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), highlight research gaps, and suggest future research directions. Humans and other living organisms are exposed to ENMs during production or use of products containing them. To assess the hazards of ENMs, it is important to assess their physiochemical properties and try to relate them to any observed hazard. However, the full determination of these relationships is currently limited by the lack of empirical data. Moreover, most toxicity studies do not use realistic environmental exposure conditions for determining dose-response parameters, affecting the accurate estimation of health risks associated with the exposure to ENMs. Regulatory aspects of nanotechnology are still developing and are currently the subject of much debate. Synthesis of available studies suggests a number of open questions. These include (i) developing a combination of different analytical methods for determining ENM concentration, size, shape, surface properties, and morphology in different environmental media, (ii) conducting toxicity studies using environmentally relevant exposure conditions and obtaining data relevant to developing quantitative nanostructure-toxicity relationships (QNTR), and (iii) developing guidelines for regulating exposure of ENMs in the environment.

Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

Reinforcing stigma or delivering a fresh start: Bankruptcy and future engagement in the workforce

In Australia, bankruptcy retains a social stigma, as is often seen as a personal failing, and an indication that the individual cannot be trusted to meet their obligations. Official labelling and informal labelling reinforce this stigmatisation of bankruptcy in employment and business contexts. This occurs through legislation and policy that imposes restrictions on participation in some occupations on the grounds of bankruptcy, and imposes obligations on persons to disclose their bankruptcy to their employer. These restrictions and obligations that are varying in length and extent, both within industries and professions and across industries and professions, and appear to lack a coherent policy justification. Further, informal labelling is facilitated by the law providing for a permanent, publicly accessible record of bankruptcy, and failing to restrict the use of bankruptcy information in employment and business decision-making. This stigmatisation of bankruptcy inhibits the fresh start objective of bankruptcy, and is not supported by a strong correlation between bankruptcy and negative personal or other attributes. This article therefore argues that a review is needed to determine the circumstances in which there is a genuine policy justification for employment restrictions, and the appropriate length and scope of such restrictions. Reform of the Bankruptcy Act should also be considered. Possible areas for law reform including reducing the minimum period of bankruptcy; removing the permanency and/or public accessibility of the bankruptcy record; revising the language used in the Bankruptcy Act; and introducing a prohibition or restriction on the ability of employers to use bankruptcy status in employment decision making. Such changes would promote the fresh start objective of Australia’s bankruptcy system, and increase the likelihood that bankruptcy does not unfairly inhibit an individual’s ability to engage as an economic actor in Australian society and thereby improve their financial well-being.

Genetic determinants of bone density and fracture risk: State of the art and future directions

Context: Osteoporosis is a common, highly heritable condition that causes substantial morbidity and mortality, the etiopathogenesis of which is poorly understood. Genetic studies are making increasingly rapid progress in identifying the genes involved. Evidence Acquisition and Synthesis: In this review, we will summarize the current understanding of the genetics of osteoporosis based on publications from PubMed from the year 1987 onward. Conclusions: Most genes involved in osteoporosis identified to date encode components of known pathways involved in bone synthesis or resorption, but as the field progresses, new pathways are being identified. Only a small proportion of the total genetic variation involved in osteoporosis has been identified, and new approaches will be required to identify most of the remaining genes.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

A decade of supply chain collaboration and directions for future research

Purpose This paper aims to conduct a systematic review of the literature on supply chain collaboration published over a 10-year period from 2005 to 2014. It explores the nature and extent of research undertaken to identify key themes emerging in the field and gaps that need to be addressed. Design/methodology/approach The authors review a sample of 207 articles from 69 journals, after using an iterative cycle of defining appropriate search keywords, searching the literature and conducting the analysis. Findings Key themes include the meaning of collaboration; considerations for supply chain collaboration theory; emerging areas in collaboration for sustainability, technology-enabled supply chains and humanitarian supply chains; and the need for a more holistic approach, multi-tier perspectives and research into B2C collaborations. Research limitations/implications The paper provides discussion and scope for future research into the area which would contribute to the field tremendously. Originality/value There have been very few reviews in the past on supply chain collaboration, and this is one of the first extensive reviews conducted to address how well the body of knowledge on supply chain collaboration corresponds with our contemporary society.

A methodological survey of future mobility literature: Opportunities for design research

This research establishes that the study of mobility and transportation is multi-disciplinary and highly complex, involving the diverse interplay between infrastructural and psychological factors. Coincidently, a new paradigm in personal mobility is developing. A new generation of mobility solutions is becoming widely available in the form of car and ride sharing services. These services build on the assumption that customers no longer need ownership of a product in order to benefit from it. With the emergence of this new paradigm, this paper presents a methodological review of current practises used by the wider research community. Therefore, this research piece aims to explore methodological approaches involved in the study the effect of community on an individual’s attitudes, perceptions and behaviours of future mobility solutions. The results of this review indicate that the majority of published literature uses quantitative methods as opposed to qualitative and even fewer studies have sought to understand the human factors in these new mobility solutions. This gap in knowledge is a valuable opportunity for design. Inherently qualitative and human focused, design research can fill this gap in knowledge by applying distinctly user-centred methods such as persona design, narrative storytelling, and in-depth observations to discover deeper human insights.

A critical appraisal of the relational management paradigm in an international setting: A future research agenda

Purpose In the mainstream relationship management literature, critical appraisal of the relationship paradigm in an international setting is virtually non-existent. The extant literature reveals a gap in terms of linking relationship management theories with international management. Furthermore, little research attention has been paid to synthesise the existing theories in a cohesive manner towards developing a theoretical paradigm in the interface of the importer-supplier relationship dyad. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to strengthen the theoretical grounds of relationship marketing in an international setting in an importer-exporter relationship context. Design/methodology/approach The paper follows a comprehensive review approach and applies the fundamental theory of trust and commitment to identify the relational factors. More precisely, the paper identifies and applies other relevant theories such as internationalisation process theory, resource-based theory of the firm, dependence theory and transaction cost theory in developing an innovative theoretical paradigm. Findings Based on the integration of extant theories, this paper proposes a new direction in the theoretical realm of the trust and commitment building process within an importer and supplier relationship management paradigm. The research concludes that trust and commitment are the focal factors within the international relational paradigm. Research limitations/implications The proposed research direction suggests an emerging framework integrating mainstream theoretical variables of trust and commitment in importer and foreign-supplier context. This novel framework has the potential for use in further research. Originality/value This paper advances a grounded theoretical exploration within an international management domain in the context of importers and foreign-suppliers.

Themes in landscape architecture publishing: Past trends, future needs

Many scholars acknowledge the need for rigorous research in landscape architecture to improve practice and teaching, and several recent studies have explored research trends in the discipline. This study continues this exploration by reviewing the articles published in the three prominent English- language landscape architecture journals: Landscape Journal, Landscape Review, and the Journal of Landscape Architecture. Specifically, this study analyzes the abstracts from 441 research articles to determine specific themes and publishing trends over 31 years (1982–2013). Findings indicate that “history” is by far the most prominent research theme, followed by “social and cultural processes and issues” and “aesthetics.” Several themes—such as “sustainability and green infrastructure,” “participation and collaboration,” and “research methods and methodologies”—have become more prominent in recent years. However, topics of current social and political concern—such as “climate change,” “active living,” “energy,” and “health”—are not yet prominent themes in the research literature, and could be key areas for future contribution. With the exception of a few themes, findings also suggest a moderate degree of alignment between research and practice. The article concludes with recommendations for future areas of research that will better position landscape architecture as a research- oriented profession with broad social relevance.

Security issues for future intelligent transport systems

Cooperative Intelligent Transportation Systems (C-ITS) allow in-vehicle systems, and ultimately the driver, to enhance their awareness of their surroundings by enabling communication between vehicles and road infrastructure. C-ITS are widely considered as the next major step in driving assistance systems, aiming at increasing safety, comfort and mobility for drivers. However, any communicating systems are subjected to security threats. A key component for providing secure communications at a large scale is a Public Key Infrastructure (PKI). Due to the safety-critical nature of Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communications, a C-ITS PKI has functional, performance and scalability requirements that differ from traditional non-automotive environments. This paper identifies and defines the key functional and security requirements for C-ITS PKI systems and analyses proposed C-ITS PKI standards against these requirements. In particular, the proposed US and European C-ITS PKI systems are identified as being too complex and not scalable. The paper also highlights various privacy, security and scalability concerns that should be considered for a secure C-ITS PKI solution in the Australian transport landscape.

We need to fund more than just science priorities for Australia’s future

Australia's Science and Research Priorities focus on activating STEM researchers (science, technology, engineering, maths). In this article in The Conversation, Professor Marcus Foth argues that we need to fund more than just science priorities for Australia’s future.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

An extravariation model for improving confidence intervals of population size estimates from removal data

We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).