The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters : exploring usage patterns and safety outcomes

Increased use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) often underlies increases in the number of reported crashes, promoting research into PTW safety. PTW riders are overrepresented in crash and injury statistics relative to exposure and, as such, are considered vulnerable road users. PTW use has increased substantially over the last decade in many developed countries. One such country is Australia, where moped and scooter use has increased at a faster rate than motorcycle use in recent years. Increased moped use is particularly evident in the State of Queensland which is one of four Australian jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car licence holders and a motorcycle licence is not required. A moped is commonly a small motor scooter and is limited to a maximum design speed of 50 km/h and a maximum engine cylinder capacity of 50 cubic centimetres. Scooters exceeding either of these specifications are classed as motorcycles in all Australian jurisdictions. While an extensive body of knowledge exists on motorcycle safety, some of which is relevant to moped and scooter safety, the latter PTW types have received comparatively little focused research attention. Much of the research on moped safety to date has been conducted in Europe where they have been popular since the mid 20th century, while some studies have also been conducted in the United States. This research is of limited relevance to Australia due to socio-cultural, economic, regulatory and environmental differences. Moreover, while some studies have compared motorcycles to mopeds in terms of safety, no research to date has specifically examined the differences and similarities between mopeds and larger scooters, or between larger scooters and motorcycles. To address the need for a better understanding of moped and scooter use and safety, the current program of research involved three complementary studies designed to achieve the following aims: (1) develop better knowledge and understanding of moped and scooter usage trends and patterns; and (2) determine the factors leading to differences in moped, scooter and motorcycle safety. Study 1 involved six-monthly observations of PTW types in inner city parking areas of Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, to monitor and quantify the types of PTW in use over a two year period. Study 2 involved an analysis of Queensland PTW crash and registration data, primarily comparing the police-reported crash involvement of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles over a five year period (N = 7,347). Study 3 employed both qualitative and quantitative methods to examine moped and scooter usage in two components: (a) four focus group discussions with Brisbane-based Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 23); and (b) a state-wide survey of Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 192). Study 1 found that of the PTW types parked in inner city Brisbane over the study period (N = 2,642), more than one third (36.1%) were mopeds or larger scooters. The number of PTWs observed increased at each six-monthly phase, but there were no significant changes in the proportions of PTW types observed across study phases. There were no significant differences in the proportions or numbers of PTW type observed by season. Study 2 revealed some important differences between mopeds, scooters and motorcycles in terms of safety and usage through analysis of crash and registration data. All Queensland PTW registrations doubled between 2001 and 2009, but there was an almost fifteen-fold increase in moped registrations. Mopeds subsequently increased as a proportion of Queensland registered PTWs from 1.2 percent to 8.8 percent over this nine year period. Moped and scooter crashes increased at a faster rate than motorcycle crashes over the five year study period from July 2003 to June 2008, reflecting their relatively greater increased usage. Crash rates per 10,000 registrations for the study period were only slightly higher for mopeds (133.4) than for motorcycles and scooters combined (124.8), but estimated crash rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled were higher for mopeds (6.3) than motorcycles and scooters (1.7). While the number of crashes increased for each PTW type over the study period, the rate of crashes per 10,000 registrations declined by 40 percent for mopeds compared with 22 percent for motorcycles and scooters combined. Moped and scooter crashes were generally less severe than motorcycle crashes and this was related to the particular crash characteristics of the PTW types rather than to the PTW types themselves. Compared to motorcycle and moped crashes, scooter crashes were less likely to be single vehicle crashes, to involve a speeding or impaired rider, to involve poor road conditions, or to be attributed to rider error. Scooter and moped crashes were more likely than motorcycle crashes to occur on weekdays, in lower speed zones and at intersections. Scooter riders were older on average (39) than moped (32) and motorcycle (35) riders, while moped riders were more likely to be female (36%) than scooter (22%) or motorcycle riders (7%). The licence characteristics of scooter and motorcycle riders were similar, with moped riders more likely to be licensed outside of Queensland and less likely to hold a full or open licence. The PTW type could not be identified in 15 percent of all cases, indicating a need for more complete recording of vehicle details in the registration data. The focus groups in Study 3a and the survey in Study 3b suggested that moped and scooter riders are a heterogeneous population in terms of demographic characteristics, riding experience, and knowledge and attitudes regarding safety and risk. The self-reported crash involvement of Study 3b respondents suggests that most moped and scooter crashes result in no injury or minor injury and are not reported to police. Study 3 provided some explanation for differences observed in Study 2 between mopeds and scooters in terms of crash involvement. On the whole, scooter riders were older, more experienced, more likely to have undertaken rider training and to value rider training programs. Scooter riders were also more likely to use protective clothing and to seek out safety-related information. This research has some important practical implications regarding moped and scooter use and safety. While mopeds and scooters are generally similar in terms of usage, and their usage has increased, scooter riders appear to be safer than moped riders due to some combination of superior skills and safer riding behaviour. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular in Queensland in future and that their usage may further increase, along with that of motorcycles. Future policy and planning should consider potential options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness. While rider training and licensing appears an obvious potential countermeasure, the effectiveness of rider training has not been established and other options should also be strongly considered. Such options might include rider education and safety promotion, while interventions could also target other road users and urban infrastructure. Future research is warranted in regard to moped and scooter safety, particularly where the use of those PTWs has increased substantially from low levels. Research could address areas such as rider training and licensing (including program evaluations), the need for more detailed and reliable data (particularly crash and exposure data), protective clothing use, risks associated with lane splitting and filtering, and tourist use of mopeds. Some of this research would likely be relevant to motorcycle use and safety, as well as that of mopeds and scooters.

Towards local cultures of sustainability : facilitating community created environment education centres through design

Ecological sustainability has been proposed to address the problem of human impacts increasingly degrading planetary resources and ecosystems, threatening biodiversity, eco-services and human survival. Ecological sustainability is an imperative, with Australia having one of the highest eco-footprints per person worldwide. While significant progress has been made via implementation of ecologically sustainable design in urban communities, relatively little has been undertaken in small, disparate regional communities in Australia. Regional communities are disadvantaged by rural economic decline associated with structural change and inequities of resource transfer. The ecologically sustainable solution is holistic, so all settlements need to be globally wise, richly biodiverse yet locally specific. As a regional solution to this global problem, this research offers the practical means by which a small regional community can contribute. It focuses on the design and implementation of a community centre and the fostering of transformative community learning through an integrated ‘learning community’ awareness of ecologically sustainable best practice. Lessons learned are documented by the participant researcher who as a designer, facilitator, local resident and social narrator has been deeply connected with the Tweed-Caldera region over a period since 1980. The collective action of the local community of Chillingham has been diligently recorded over a decade of design and development. Over this period, several positive elements emerged in terms of improvements to the natural and built environment, greater social cohesion and co-operative learning along with a shift towards a greener local economy. Behavioural changes in the community were noted as residents strived to embrace ecological ideals and reduce fossil fuel dependency. They found attractive local solutions to sourcing of food and using local employment opportunities to up skill their residents via transformative learning as a community in transition. Finally, the catalytic impact of external partnering has also been documented. How well the region as a whole has achieved its ecologically sustainable objectives is measured in terms of the delivered success of private and public partnering with the community, the creation of a community centre cum environment education centre, the restoration of local heritage buildings, the repair of riparian forests and improved water conditions in local river systems, better roads and road safety, local skills and knowledge transfer, support of local food and local/regional growers markets to attract tourists via the integrated trails network. In aggregate, each and every element contributes to a measure of eco-positive development for the built environment, its social organisation and its economy that has guided the local community to find its own pathway to sustainability. Within the Tweed-Caldera bioregion in northern New South Wales, there has been a lack of strategic planning, ecologically sustainable knowledge and facilities in isolated communities that could support the development of a local sustained green economy, provide a hub for socio-cultural activities and ecology based education. The first challenge in this research was to model a whole systems approach to eco-positive development in Chillingham, NSW, a small community where Nature and humanity know no specific boundary. The net result was the creation of a community environment education centre featuring best-affordable ecological practice and regionally distinctive, educational building form from a disused heritage building (cow bale). This development, implemented over a decade, resonated with the later regional wide programs that were linked in the Caldera region by the common purpose of extending the reach of local and state government assistance to regional NSW in economic transition coupled with sustainability. The lessons learned from these linked projects reveal that subsequent programs have been significantly easier to initiate, manage, develop and deliver results. In particular, pursuing collaborative networks with all levels of government and external private partners has been economically effective. Each community’s uniqueness has been celebrated and through drawing out these distinctions, has highlighted local vision, strategic planning, sense of belonging and connection of people with place. This step has significantly reduced the level of friction between communities that comes from natural competition for the finite pool of funds. Following the pilot Tweed-Caldera study, several other NSW regional communities are now undertaking a Community Economic Transition Program based on the processes, trials and positive experiences witnessed in the Tweed-Caldera region where it has been demonstrated that regional community transition programs can provide an opportunity to plan and implement effective long term strategies for sustainability, empowering communities to participate in eco-governance. This thesis includes the design and development of a framework for community created environment education centres to provide an equal access place for community to participate to meet their essential needs locally. An environment centre that facilitates community transition based on easily accessible environmental education, skills and infrastructure is necessary to develop local cultures of sustainability. This research draws upon the literatures of ecologically sustainable development, environmental education and community development in the context of regional community transition towards ‘strong sustainability’. The research approach adapted is best described as a four stage collaborative action research cycle where the participant researcher (me) has a significant involvement in the process to foster local cultures of sustainability by empowering its citizens to act locally and in doing so, become more self reliant and socially resilient. This research also draws upon the many fine working exemplars, such as the resilience of the Cuban people, the transition town initiative in Totnes, U.K. and the models of Australian Community Gardens, such as CERES (Melbourne) and Northey Street (Brisbane). The objectives of this study are to research and evaluate exemplars of ecologically sustainable environment education centres, to facilitate the design and development of an environment education centre created by a small regional community as an ecologically sustainable learning environment; to facilitate a framework for community transition based on environmental education, skills and infrastructure necessary to develop local cultures of sustainability. The research was undertaken as action research in the Tweed Caldera in Northern NSW. This involved the author as participant researcher, designer and volunteer in two interconnected initiatives: the Chillingham Community Centre development and the Caldera Economic Transition Program (CETP). Both initiatives involved a series of design-led participatory community workshops that were externally facilitated with the support of government agency partnerships, steering committees and local volunteers. Together the Caldera research programs involved communities participating in developing their own strategic planning process and outcomes. The Chillingham Community Centre was developed as a sustainable community centre/hub using a participatory design process. The Caldera Economic Transition Program (CETP) prioritised Caldera region projects: the Caldera farmer’s market; community gardens and community kitchens; community renewable energy systems and an integrated trails network. The significant findings were: the CETP projects were capable of moving towards an eco-positive design benchmark through transformative learning. Community transition to sustainability programs need to be underpinned by sustainability and environmental education based frameworks and practical on ground experience in local needs based projects through transformative learning. The actioned projects were successfully undertaken through community participation and teamwork. Ecological footprint surveys were undertaken to guide and assess the ongoing community transition process, however the paucity of responses needs to be revisited. The concept of ecologically sustainable development has been adopted internationally, however existing design and planning strategies do not assure future generations continued access to healthy natural life support systems. Sustainable design research has usually been urban focussed, with little attention paid to regional communities. This study seeks to redress this paucity through the design of ecologically sustainable (deep green) learning environments for small regional communities. Through a design-led process of environmental education, this study investigates how regional communities can be facilitated to model the principles of eco-positive development to support transition to local cultures of sustainability. This research shows how community transition processes and projects can incorporate sustainable community development as transformative learning through design. Regional community transition programs can provide an opportunity to plan long term strategies for sustainability, empowering people to participate in eco-governance. A framework is developed for a community created environment education centre to provide an equal access place for the local community to participate in implementing ways to meet their essential needs locally. A community environment education centre that facilitates community transition based on holistic environmental education, skills and infrastructure is necessary to develop local cultures of sustainability.

Stability and convergence of implicit numerical methods for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection-dispersion models (FADM) is investigated. These models include five fractional advection-dispersion models: the immobile, mobile/immobile time FADM with a temporal fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with skewness, both the time and space FADM and the time fractional advection-diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. They describe nonlocal dependence on either time or space, or both, to explain the development of anomalous dispersion. These equations can be used to simulate regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails, for example, the solute transport in watershed catchments and rivers. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADM. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analyzed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical analysis.

Cultural impact on e-service use in Saudi Arabia : results from focus groups

This paper reports the results of focus groups obtained as part of a full study that uses a mixed method approach to answer the following question: what are the cultural values that impact on e-service use in Saudi Arabia? In order to answer this question we reviewed culture theories, dimensions, and models that have been identified in the literature. Four focus groups interviewing experts and general users (customers) of online services in Saudi Arabia have been completed aiming at the end to identify the uncovered elements of Saudi culture in the literature, which hopefully will result in developing a framework of cultural values that affect e-service use in Saudi context. This paper will firstly, introduce the importance of culture and define the aspects of Saudi culture. It will then describe the method used, and finally discussing the findings of the focus groups. Findings revealed four factors that have not been covered in the literature and need to be investigated namely: nepotism, the lack of human interaction, services oriented culture, and the career path.

A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models.

Using process models to support design of airport terminals

The complex design process of airport terminal needs to support a wide range of changes in operational facilities for both usual and unusual/emergency events. Process model describes how activities within a process are connected and also states logical information flow of the various activities. The traditional design process overlooks the necessity of information flow from the process model to the actual building design, which needs to be considered as a integral part of building design. The current research introduced a generic method to obtain design related information from process model to incorporate with the design process. Appropriate integration of the process model prior to the design process uncovers the relationship exist between spaces and their relevant functions, which could be missed in the traditional design approach. The current paper examines the available Business Process Model (BPM) and generates modified Business Process Model(mBPM) of check-in facilities of Brisbane International airport. The information adopted from mBPM then transform into possible physical layout utilizing graph theory.

The development of ground impact models for the analysis of the risks associated with Unmanned Aircraft Operations over inhabited areas

With the emergence of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) there is a growing need for safety standards and regulatory frameworks to manage the risks associated with their operations. The primary driver for airworthiness regulations (i.e., those governing the design, manufacture, maintenance and operation of UAS) are the risks presented to people in the regions overflown by the aircraft. Models characterising the nature of these risks are needed to inform the development of airworthiness regulations. The output from these models should include measures of the collective, individual and societal risk. A brief review of these measures is provided. Based on the review, it was determined that the model of the operation of an UAS over inhabited areas must be capable of describing the distribution of possible impact locations, given a failure at a particular point in the flight plan. Existing models either do not take the impact distribution into consideration, or propose complex and computationally expensive methods for its calculation. A computationally efficient approach for estimating the boundary (and in turn area) of the impact distribution for fixed wing unmanned aircraft is proposed. A series of geometric templates that approximate the impact distributions are derived using an empirical analysis of the results obtained from a 6-Degree of Freedom (6DoF) simulation. The impact distributions can be aggregated to provide impact footprint distributions for a range of generic phases of flight and missions. The maximum impact footprint areas obtained from the geometric template are shown to have a relative error of typically less than 1% compared to the areas calculated using the computationally more expensive 6DoF simulation. Computation times for the geometric models are on the order of one second or less, using a standard desktop computer. Future work includes characterising the distribution of impact locations within the footprint boundaries.

An authorization framework using building information models

A building information model (BIM) is an electronic repository of structured, three-dimensional data that captures both the physical and dynamic functional characteristics of a facility. In addition to its more traditional function as a tool to aid design and construction, a BIM can be used throughout the life cycle of a facility, functioning as a living database that places resources contained within the building in their spatial and temporal context. Through its comprehension of spatial relationships, a BIM can meaningfully represent and integrate previously isolated control and management systems and processes, and thereby provide a more intuitive interface to users. By placing processes in a spatial context, decision-making can be improved, with positive flow-on effects for security and efficiency. In this article, we systematically analyse the authorization requirements involved in the use of BIMs. We introduce the concept of using a BIM as a graphical tool to support spatial access control configuration and management (including physical access control). We also consider authorization requirements for regulating access to the structured data that exists within a BIM as well as to external systems and data repositories that can be accessed via the BIM interface. With a view to addressing these requirements we present a survey of relevant spatiotemporal access control models, focusing on features applicable to BIMs and highlighting capability gaps. Finally, we present a conceptual authorization framework that utilizes BIMs.

Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Understanding hydrochemical processes using 3D models and hydrochemical facies in Wairau Plain groundwater, Marlborough

Three dimensional models and groundwater quality are combined to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough. Hydrochemical facies, which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters, are identified within geological formations to assess natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact on groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain.

Development of zonal cartilage constructs : effects of chondrocyte subpopulation, compressive stimulation, and culture models

Articular cartilage is a highly resilient tissue located at the ends of long bones. It has a zonal structure, which has functional significance in load-bearing. Cartilage does not spontaneously heal itself when damaged, and untreated cartilage lesions or age-related wear often lead to osteoarthritis (OA). OA is a degenerative condition that is highly prevalent, age-associated, and significantly affects patient mobility and quality of life. There is no cure for OA, and patients usually resort to replacing the biological joint with an artificial prosthesis. An alternative approach is to dynamically regenerate damaged or diseased cartilage through cartilage tissue engineering, where cells, materials, and stimuli are combined to form new cartilage. However, despite extensive research, major limitations remain that have prevented the wide-spread application of tissue-engineered cartilage. Critically, there is a dearth of information on whether autologous chondrocytes obtained from OA patients can be used to successfully generate cartilage tissues with structural hierarchy typically found in normal articular cartilage. I aim to address these limitations in this thesis by showing that chondrocyte subpopulations isolated from macroscopically normal areas of the cartilage can be used to engineer stratified cartilage tissues and that compressive loading plays an important role in zone-dependent biosynthesis of these chondrocytes. I first demonstrate that chondrocyte subpopulations from the superficial (S) and middle/deep (MD) zones of OA cartilage are responsive to compressive stimulation in vitro, and that the effect of compression on construct quality is zone-dependent. I also show that compressive stimulation can influence pericelluar matrix production, matrix metalloproteinase secretion, and cytokine expression in zonal chondrocytes in an alginate hydrogel model. Subsequently, I focus on recreating the zonal structure by forming layered constructs using the alginate-released chondrocyte (ARC) method either with or without polymeric scaffolds. Resulting zonal ARC constructs had hyaline morphology, and expressed cartilage matrix molecules such as proteoglycans and collagen type II in both scaffold-free and scaffold-based approaches. Overall, my findings demonstrate that chondrocyte subpopulations obtained from OA joints respond sensitively to compressive stimulation, and are able to form cartilaginous constructs with stratified organization similar to native cartilage using the scaffold-free and scaffold-based ARC technique. The ultimate goal in tissue engineering is to help provide improved treatment options for patients suffering from debilitating conditions such as OA. Further investigations in developing functional cartilage replacement tissues using autologous chondrocytes will bring us a step closer to improving the quality of life for millions of OA patients worldwide.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.