Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

The effect of ongoing blood loss on human serum concentrations of perfluorinated acids

Perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in serum at low concentrations in background populations. Higher concentrations haven been observed in adult males compared to females, with a possible explanation that menstruation offers females an additional elimination route. In this study, we examined the significance of blood loss as an elimination route of PFAAs. Pooled serum samples were collected from individuals undergoing a medical procedure involving ongoing blood withdrawal called venesection. Concentrations from male venesection patients were approximately 40% lower than males in the general population for perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). A simple pharmacokinetic model was used to test the hypothesis that blood loss could explain why adult males have higher concentrations of PFAAs than females, and why males undergoing venesections had lower concentrations compared to males in the general population. The model application generally supported these hypotheses showing that venesection might reduce blood serum concentrations by 37% (PFOA) and 53% (PFOS) compared to the observed difference of 44% and 37%. Menstruation was modeled to show a 22% reduction in PFOA serum concentrations compared to a 24% difference in concentrations between males and females in the background population. Uncertainties in the modeling and the data are identified and discussed.

Hyperferritinemia -cataract syndrome: Long-term ophthalmic observations in an Italian family

Background Hyperferritinemia-cataract syndrome (HCS) is a rare Mendelian condition characterized by bilateral cataract and high levels of serum ferritin in the absence of iron overload. Methods HCS was diagnosed in three adult siblings. In two of them it was possible to assess lens changes initially in 1995 and again in 2013. Serum ferritin, iron, transferrin concentrations and transferrin saturation percentage were also measured, and the Iron Responsive Element (IRE) region of the L-ferritin gene (FTL) was studied. Results Serum ferritin concentrations were considerably elevated while serum iron, transferrin and transferrin saturation levels were within the normal range in each sibling. Cataract changes in our patients were consistent with those previously reported in the literature. Progression of the cataract, an aspect of few studies in this syndrome, appeared to be quite limited in extent. The heterozygous +32G to T (-168G>T) substitution in the IRE of the FTL gene was detected in this family. Conclusions Ophthalmic and biochemical studies together with genetic testing confirmed HCS in three family members. Although the disorder has been extensively described in recent years, little is known regarding cataract evolution over time. In our cases, lens evaluations encompassed many years, identified bilateral cataract of typical morphology and supported the hypothesis that this unique clinical feature of the disease tends to be slowly progressive in nature, at least in adults.