Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Applying the ecological model of behavior change to a physical activity trial in retirement communities : description of the study protocol

Objectives To describe the intervention protocol for the first multilevel ecological intervention for physical activity in retirement communities that addresses individual, interpersonal and community influences on behavior change. Design A cluster randomized controlled trial design was employed with two study arms: a physical activity intervention and an attention control successful aging condition. Setting Sixteen continuing care retirement communities in San Diego County. Participants Three hundred twenty older adults, aged 65 years and older, are being recruited to participate in the trial. In addition, peer leaders are being recruited to lead some study activities, especially to sustain the intervention after study activities ceased. Intervention Participants in the physical activity trial receive individual, interpersonal and community intervention components. The individual level components include pedometers, goal setting and individual phone counseling. The interpersonal level components include group education sessions and peer-led activities. The community level components include resource audits and enumeration, tailored walking maps, and community improvement projects. The successful aging group receives individual and group attention about successful aging topics. Measurements The main outcome is light to moderate physical activity, measured objectively by accelerometry. Other objective outcomes included physical functioning, blood pressure, physical fitness, and cognitive functioning. Self report measures include depressive symptoms and health related quality of life. Results The intervention is being delivered successfully in the communities and compliance rates are high. Conclusion Ecological Models call for interventions that address multiple levels of the model. Previous studies have not included components at each level and retirement communities provide a model environment to demonstrate how to implement such an intervention.

Innovation through action research in environmental education : from project to praxis

This thesis is a work-in-progress that articulates my research journey based on the development of a curriculum innovation in environmental education. This journey had two distinct, but intertwined phases: action research based fieldwork, conducted collaboratively, to create a whole school approach to environmental education curriculum planning; and a phase of analysis and reflection based on the emerging findings, as I sought to create personal "living educational theory" about change and innovation. A key stimulus for the study was the perceived theory-practice gap in environmental education, which is often presented in the literature as a criticism of teachers for failing to achieve the values and action objectives of critical environmental education. Hence, many programs and projects are considered to be superficial and inconsequential in terms of their ability to seriously address environmental issues. The intention of this study was to work with teachers in a project that would be an exemplar of critical environmental education. This would be in the form of a whole school "learnscaping" curriculum in a primary school whereby the schoolgrounds would be utilised for interdisciplinary critical environment education. Parallel with the three cycles of action research in this project, my research objectives were to identify and comment upon the factors that influence the generation of successful educational innovation. It was anticipated that the project would be a collaboration involving me, as researcher-facilitator, and many of the teachers in the school as active participants. As the project proceeded through its action cycles, however, it became obvious that the goal of developing a critical environmental education curriculum, and the use of highly participatory processes, were unrealistic. Institutional and organisational rigidities in education generally, teachers' day-to-day work demands, and the constant juggle of work, family and other responsibilities for all participants acted as significant constraints. Consequently, it became apparent that the learnscaping curriculum would not be the hoped-for exemplar. Progress was slow and, at times, the project was in danger of stalling permanently. While the curriculum had some elements of critical environmental education, these were minor and not well spread throughout the school. Overall, the outcome seemed best described as a "small win"; perhaps just another example of the theory-practice gap that I had hoped this project would bridge. Towards the project's end, however, my continuing reflection led to an exploration of chaos/complexity theory which gave new meaning to the concept of a "small win". According to this theory, change is not the product of linear processes applied methodically in purposeful and diligent ways, but emerges from serendipitous events that cannot be planned for, or forecast in advance. When this perspective of change is applied to human organisations - in this study, a busy school - the context for change is recognised not as a stable, predictable environment, but as a highly complex system where change happens all the time, cannot be controlled, and no one can be really sure where the impacts might lead. This so-called "butterfly effect" is a central idea of this theory where small changes or modifications are created - the effects of which are difficult to know, let alone determine - and which can have large-scale impacts. Allied with this effect is the belief that long term developments in an organisation that takes complexity into account, emerge by spontaneous self-organising evolution, requiring political interaction and learning in groups, rather than systematic progress towards predetermined goals or "visions". Hence, because change itself and the contexts of change are recognised as complex, chaos/complexity theory suggests that change is more likely to be slow and evolutionary - cultural change - rather than fast and revolutionary where the old is quickly ushered out by radical reforms and replaced by new structures and processes. Slow, small-scale changes are "normal", from a complexity viewpoint, while rapid, wholesale change is both unlikely and unrealistic. Therefore, the frustratingly slow, small-scale, imperfect educational changes that teachers create - including environmental education initiatives - should be seen for what they really are. They should be recognised as successful changes, the impacts of which cannot be known, but which have the potential to magnify into large-scale changes into the future. Rather than being regarded as failures for not meeting critical education criteria, "small wins" should be cause for celebration and support. The intertwined phases of collaborative action research and individual researcher reflection are mirrored in the thesis structure. The first three chapters, respectively, provide the thesis overview, the literature underpinning the study's central concern, and the research methodology. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 report on each of the three action research cycles of the study, namely Laying the Groundwork, Down to Work!, and The Never-ending Story. Each of these chapters presents a narrative of events, a literature review specific to developments in the cycle, and analysis and critique of the events, processes and outcomes of each cycle. Chapter 7 provides a synthesis of the whole of the study, outlining my interim propositions about facilitating curriculum change in schools through action research, and the implications of these for environmental education.

Embedding EfS in teacher education : an introductory guide to using the systems change model

Welcome to this introductory guide on using a systems change model to embed Education for Sustainability (EfS) into teacher education. Pressing sustainability issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss and depletion of non-renewable resources pose new challenges for education. The importance of education in preparing future citizens to engage in sustainable living practices and help create a more sustainable world is widely acknowledged. As a result many universities around the world are beginning to recognize the need to integrate EfS into their teacher education programs. However, evidence indicates that there is little or no core EfS knowledge or pedagogy in pre-service teacher courses available to student teachers in a thorough and systematic fashion. Instead efforts are fragmented and individually or, at best, institutionally-based and lacking a systems approach to change, an approach that is seen as essential to achieving a sustainable society (Henderson & Tilbury, 2004). The result is new teachers are graduating without the necessary knowledge or skills to teach in ways that enable them to prepare their students to cope well with the new and emerging challenges their communities face. This guide has been prepared as part of a teaching and learning research project that applied a systems change approach to embedding the learning and teaching of sustainability into pre-service teacher education. The processes, outcomes and lessons learnt from this project are presented here as a guide for navigating pathways to systemic change in the journey of re-orienting teacher education towards sustainability. The guide also highlights how a systems change approach can be used to successfully enact change within a teacher education system. If you are curious about how to introduce and embed EfS into teacher education – or have tried other models and are looking for a more encompassing, transformative approach – this guide is designed to help you. The material presented in this guide is designed to be flexible and adaptive. However you choose to use the content, our aim is to help you and your students develop new perspectives, promote discussion and to engage with a system-wide approach to change.

Professional conversations : a collaborative approach to support policy implementation, professional learning and practice change in ECEC

In 2012, Australia introduced a new National Quality Framework, comprising enhanced quality expectations for early childhood education and care services, two national learning frameworks and a new Assessment and Rating System spanning child care centres, kindergartens and preschools, family day care and outside school hours care. This is the linchpin in a series of education reforms designed to support increased access to higher quality early childhood education and care (ECEC) and successful transition to school. As with any policy change, success in real terms relies upon building shared understanding and the capacity of educators to apply new knowledge and to support change and improved practice within their service. With this in mind, a collaborative research project investigated the efficacy of a new approach to professional learning in ECEC: the professional conversation. This paper reports on the trial and evaluation of a series of professional conversations to support implementation of one element of the NQF, the Early Years Learning Framework (DEEWR,2009), and their capacity to promote collaborative reflective practice, shared understanding, and improved practice in ECEC. Set against the backdrop of the NQF, this paper details the professional conversation approach, key challenges and critical success factors, and the learning outcomes for conversation participants. Findings support the efficacy of this approach to professional learning in ECEC, and its capacity to support policy reform and practice change in ECEC.

Adaptation and change in Queensland’s rangelands : cell grazing as an emerging ideology of pastoral-ecology

Does the current global political economic framework, or more specifically, the cost-price squeeze associated with primary production, restrict the choices of Australian cattle graziers in moving to more sustainable practices? It has often been argued by primary producers and academics, alike, that current terms of trade have resulted in reduced profitability at the property level, and as such, have made it difficult for landholders to shift to practices which are environmentally sustainable. Whilst there is mounting evidence that this is case, there is also evidence that some graziers have been able to adapt to the prevailing market conditions through an ideological as well as ‘practice’ shift. Findings from qualitative research in Central Queensland, Australia has highlighted how ‘cell grazing’ departs from the traditional or conventional aspects of grazing which can be described as productivist, to an approach closely approximating Lang and Heasman’s (2004) ‘ecologically integrated paradigm’. It is argued that cell grazing is, at present, a marginal activity that requires an ideological and cultural shift, as well as an investment in new infrastructure, however, current cell grazing activities may also demonstrate that beef grazing has the potential to be both economically and environmentally sustainable.

Urban Food Security, Urban Resilience and Climate Change

The growing importance of logistics in increasingly globalised production and consumption systems strengthens the case for explicit consideration of the climate risks that may impact on the operation of ports in the future, as well as the formulation of adaptation responses that act to enhance their resilience. Within a logistics chain, seaports are functional nodes of significant strategic importance, and are considered as critical gateways linking local and national supply chains to global markets. However, they are more likely to be exposed to vagaries of climate-related extreme events due to their coastal locations. As such, they need to be adaptive and respond to the projected impacts of climate change, in particular extreme weather events. These impacts are especially important in the logistics context as they could result in varying degrees of business interruption; including business closure in the worst case scenario. Since trans-shipment of freight for both the import and export of goods and raw materials has a significant impact on Australia’s sustained economic growth it was considered important to undertake a study of port functional assets, to assess their vulnerability to climate change, to model the potential impacts of climate-related extreme events, and to highlight possible adaptation responses.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Food security in Australia in an era of neoliberalism, productivism and climate change

For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40 million. With the Australian population expected to double in the next 40 years, and with the anticipated growth in the world's population to reach a level of some 9 billion (from its present level of 7 billion) in the same period, there are strong incentives for an expansion of food production in Australia. Neoliberal settings are encouraging this expansion at the same time as they are facilitating importation of foods, higher levels of foreign direct investment and the commoditisation of resources (such as water). Yet, expansion in food production – and in an era of climate change – will continue to compromise the environment. After discussing Australia's neoliberal framework and its relation to farming, this paper outlines how Australia is attempting to address the issue of food security. It argues that productivist farming approaches that are favoured by both industry and government are proving incapable of bringing about long-term production outcomes that will guarantee national food security.

Mapping journalism cultures across nations : a comparative study of 18 countries

This article reports key findings from a comparative survey of the role perceptions, epistemological orientations and ethical views of 1800 journalists from 18 countries. The results show that detachment, non-involvement, providing political information and monitoring the government are considered essential journalistic functions around the globe. Impartiality, the reliability and factualness of information, as well as adherence to universal ethical principles are also valued worldwide, though their perceived importance varies across countries. Various aspects of interventionism, objectivism and the importance of separating facts from opinion, on the other hand, seem to play out differently around the globe. Western journalists are generally less supportive of any active promotion of particular values, ideas and social change, and they adhere more to universal principles in their ethical decisions. Journalists from non-western contexts, on the other hand, tend to be more interventionist in their role perceptions and more flexible in their ethical views.

Arts practice and disconnected youth in Australia : impact and domains of change

Background: This paper describes research conducted with Big hART, Australia's most awarded participatory arts company. It considers three projects, LUCKY, GOLD and NGAPARTJI NGAPARTJI across separate sites in Tasmania, Western NSW and Northern Territory, respectively, in order to understand project impact from the perspective of project participants, Arts workers, community members and funders. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 respondents. The data were coded thematically and analysed using the constant comparative method of qualitative data analysis. Results: Seven broad domains of change were identified: psychosocial health; community; agency and behavioural change; the Art; economic effect; learning and identity. Conclusions: Experiences of participatory arts are interrelated in an ecology of practice that is iterative, relational, developmental, temporal and contextually bound. This means that questions of impact are contingent, and there is no one path that participants travel or single measure that can adequately capture the richness and diversity of experience. Consequently, it is the productive tensions between the domains of change that are important and the way they are animated through Arts practice that provides sign posts towards the impact of Big hART projects.

Journalists in times of change : Evidence from a new survey of Australia’s journalistic workforce

Studies of journalists’ professional views have a long history in many countries around the globe. This has been no less the case in Australia, where a number of surveys of journalists have been conducted, particularly in recent years. Yet, the only study so far able to lay claim to having studied a representative sample with a small error margin remains Henningham’s account of Australian journalists in the early 1990s. Clearly, Australian journalism has experienced a vast array of changes since that time, and it is crucial to provide a more up-to-date image of the profession. This study, based on telephone surveys with 605 Australian journalists, demonstrates some significant changes in the workforce. Journalists are now older, better educated, more experienced and arguably more left-leaning than 20 years ago. For the first time, women are in a majority, but are still disadvantaged. Journalists’ job satisfaction and ethical views are also discussed.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.