What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Building Healthy Communities : GP Network, Medicare Local and Primary Health Care in the Wheatbelt Region of Western Australia

• Government reports consistently recognise the importance of Primary Health Care to an efficient health system. Barriers identified in Australia’s Primary Health Care include workforce pressures, increase rate of chronic disease, and equitable access to Primary Health Care services. • General Practitioners (GPs) are the key to the successful delivery of Primary Health Care especially in rural and remote regions such as the Wheatbelt region in Western Australia (WA). • The Wheatbelt region of WA is vast: some 72,500 residents spread across 150,000km2 in 43 Local Government Authorities catchments. Majority of the Wheatbelt residents live in small towns. There is a higher reported rates of chronic disease, more at risk of chronic diseases and less utilisation of Primary Health Care services in this region. • General practice patients in the Wheatbelt are among those most in need of Primary Health Care services. • Wheatbelt GP Network (the “Network”) was established in 1998. It is a key health service delivery stakeholder in the Wheatbelt. • The Network has responded to the health needs of the community by creating a mobile Allied Health Team that works closely with GPs and is adaptive to ensure priority needs are met. • The Medicare Local model introduced by the Australian Government in 2011 aimed to improve the delivery of Primary Health Care services by improved health planning and coordinating service delivery. • Little if any recognition has been given to the outstanding work that many Divisions of General Practice have done in improving the delivery of Primary Health Care services such as the Network. • The Network has continued to support GPs and general practices and created a complementary system that integrated general practice with the work of an Allied Health Team. Its program mix is extensive. • The Network has consistently delivered on-required contract outputs and has a fifteen (15) years history of operating successfully in a large geographical area comprising in the main smaller communities that cannot support the traditional health services model. • The complexity of supporting International Medical Graduates in the region requires special attention. • The introduction of the Medicare Local in the South West of WA and their intention to take over the delivery of health services, thus effectively shutting the Network will have catastrophic consequences and cannot be supported economically. • The Network proposes to create a new model, built on its past work that increases the delivery of Primary Health Care services through its current Allied Health Team. • The proposal uses the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic currently under construction in Northam, part of the Network and funded by the Australian Government is a key to the proposed new model. • Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic is different from existing models of GP Super Clinics around Australia which focus predominately on co-location of services. Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic utilises a hub and spoke model of service outreach to small rural towns to ensure equitable Primary Health Care coverage and continuum of care in a financially responsible and viable manner. In particular, the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic recognises the importance of Allied Health Professionals and will involve them in a collaborative model with rural general practice. • The proposed model advocated by the Network aims to substitute the South West WA Medicare Local direct service delivery proposed for the Wheatbelt. The Network’s proposed model is to expand on the current hub and spoke model of Primary Health Care delivery to otherwise small unviable Wheatbelt towns. A flexible and adaptive skill mix of Allied Health Professionals, Nurse Practitioners and GPs ensure equitable access to service. Expanded scope of practices are utilised to reduce duplication of service and concentration of services in major towns. This involves a partnership approach. • If the proposed model not funded, the Network and the Wheatbelt region will stand to lose 16 Allied Health Professionals and defeats the purpose of Australian Government current funding for the construction of the Wheatbelt GP Super Clinic. • The Network has considered how its model can best be funded. It proposes a re-allocation of funds made available to the South West WA Medicare Local. • This submission argues that the proposal for the South West WA Medicare Local to take over the service delivery of Primary Health Care services in the Wheatbelt makes no economic sense when an existing agency (the Network) has the infrastructure in place, is experienced in working in this geographical area that has special needs and is capable to expand its programs to meet demand.

Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

Editors' introduction : literacy, learning & culture

We come together as editors to prepare an introduction to this international volume at a time of economic turbulence, new uncertainties about the future, and a growing demand on the part of most governments for further alignment of education with the economy. Literacy, in particular, is in the vanguard, for literacy only too frequently is positioned as a proxy for education. What are the purposes of literacy teaching and how is it to be achieved? What counts as literacy in ‘new times,’ in ‘participatory culture’ where people ‘believe their contributions matter, and feel some degree of social connection with one another’ (Abrams and Merchant, Chapter 23)? How can everyone be included as critical citizens of the world in whatever definition of literacy we endorse? What fresh perspectives, new ways of thinking, and good ideas for the understanding of literacy are out there? What are the possibilities for the future? An exploration of these kinds of questions and their answers, however tentative, provides us, we believe, with our best defense against the uncertainties of our age. In some respects this is our overall purpose in the volume, to explore our understanding and future possibilities by bringing together critical reviews of the major theories, methods, and pedagogical advances that have taken place in the past 20 years in the field of literacy research at the primary/elementary school level. Each chapter in the volume is newly written for the Handbook while overall the book is intended to be a distillation of key thinking and theory which offers new directions for research in literacy. It aims to revisit current interpretations, make novel connections, frame new possibilities, and encourage researchers to pursue innovative and compelling lines of inquiry...

Safety at railway level crossings : driver acceptance of potential ITS interventions

There is a continuing need to improve safety at Railway Level Crossings (RLX) particularly those that do not have gates and lights regulating traffic flow. A number of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) interventions have been proposed to improve drivers’ awareness and reduce errors in detecting and responding appropriately at level crossings. However, as with other technologies, successful implementation and ultimately effectiveness rests with the acceptance of the technology by the end user. In the current research, four focus groups were held (n=38) with drivers in metropolitan and regional locations in Queensland to examine their perceptions of potential in-vehicle and road-based ITS interventions to improve safety at RLX. The findings imply that further development of the ITS interventions, in particular the design and related promotion of the final product, must consider ease of use, usefulness and relative cost.

Cross-sectional survey of the health behaviour of southeast Queensland women with cancer-treatment induced menopause : Implications for cancer and primary care nurses

Purpose Women who experience cancer treatment-induced menopause are at risk of long-term chronic morbidity. This risk can be prevented or offset with adherence to health promotion and risk reduction guidelines. The purpose of this study was to explore health behaviours in younger female survivors of cancer and the variables (quality of life and psychological distress) believed to moderate health behaviours. Design Cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of women (n = 85) in southeast Queensland. Methods Health behaviour and health status were elicited with items from the Australian Health Survey and the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. The WHO Quality of Life (Brief) measured participants’ self-reported quality of life and their satisfaction with their health. The Brief Symptom Inventory-18 measured psychological distress. Findings Higher self-reported health status was associated with regular exercise and better quality of life. However, a substantial proportion of participants did not engage in the physical activity, dietary or cervical screening practices recommended by Australian guidelines. Conclusions The participants require education regarding the benefits of diet, exercise, weight loss and decreased alcohol intake, as well as information on future health risks and possible comorbidities. These education sessions could be addressed by a nurse-led health promotion model of care at the time of discharge or in the community.

Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sizedtrucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Trialling low-cost level crossing warning devices in Australia

This paper discusses the methodology and design of the Cooperative Research Centre for Rail Innovation’s national low-cost level crossing trial programme currently being conducted in Australia. Three suppliers of innovative low-cost level crossing warning devices were chosen through a tendering and evaluation process. The paper outlines the acceptance criteria that were used to select the suppliers and describes the different types of train detection technologies and innovative cost- reduction solutions that are being tested as part of the trial. The trial is being hosted by three major railways in three different regions in Australia, where systems from the three suppliers have been installed parallel to a baseline conventional track-circuit based level crossing at each site. The paper discusses our experience to date, the trialling process and the challenges that the project has confronted in order to develop a nationally consistent trialling programme.

Thymidylate synthase expression and outcome of patients receiving pemetrexed for advanced nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer in a prospective blinded assessment phase II clinical trial

INTRODUCTION In retrospective analyses of patients with nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer treated with pemetrexed, low thymidylate synthase (TS) expression is associated with better clinical outcomes. This phase II study explored this association prospectively at the protein and mRNA-expression level. METHODS Treatment-naive patients with nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer (stage IIIB/IV) had four cycles of first-line chemotherapy with pemetrexed/cisplatin. Nonprogressing patients continued on pemetrexed maintenance until progression or maximum tolerability. TS expression (nucleus/cytoplasm/total) was assessed in diagnostic tissue samples by immunohistochemistry (IHC; H-scores), and quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Cox regression was used to assess the association between H-scores and progression-free/overall survival (PFS/OS) distribution estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Maximal χ analysis identified optimal cutpoints between low TS- and high TS-expression groups, yielding maximal associations with PFS/OS. RESULTS The study enrolled 70 patients; of these 43 (61.4%) started maintenance treatment. In 60 patients with valid H-scores, median (m) PFS was 5.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9-6.9) months, mOS was 9.6 (95% CI, 7.3-15.7) months. Higher nuclear TS expression was significantly associated with shorter PFS and OS (primary analysis IHC, PFS: p < 0.0001; hazard ratio per 1-unit increase: 1.015; 95%CI, 1.008-1.021). At the optimal cutpoint of nuclear H-score (70), mPFS in the low TS- versus high TS-expression groups was 7.1 (5.7-8.3) versus 2.6 (1.3-4.1) months (p = 0.0015; hazard ratio = 0.28; 95%CI, 0.16-0.52; n = 40/20). Trends were similar for cytoplasm H-scores, quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and other clinical endpoints (OS, response, and disease control). CONCLUSIONS The primary endpoint was met; low TS expression was associated with longer PFS. Further randomized studies are needed to explore nuclear TS IHC expression as a potential biomarker of clinical outcomes for pemetrexed treatment in larger patient cohorts. © 2013 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

Meta-level terrorism futures : constructing and deconstructing using causal layered analysis

Focused on the alternative futures of terrorism, this study engages with the different levels of terrorism knowledge to identify and challenge the restrictive narratives that define terrorism: that "society must be defended" from the "constant and evolving terrorist threat". Using Causal Layered Analysis to deconstruct and reconstruct strategies, alternative scenarios emerge. These alternative futures are depicted collectively as a maze, highlighting the prospect of navigating towards preferred and even shared terrorism futures, once these are supported by new and inclusive metaphors and stakeholder engagement.

Submission to the inquiry into the high level of involvement of Indigenous juveniles and young adults in the criminal justice system

Introduction • The Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) is Australia's national research and knowledge centre on crime and justice. • The Institute seeks to promote justice and reduce crime by undertaking and communicating evidence-based research to inform policy and practice. • The AIC is governed by the Criminology Research Act and has been in operation since 1973. • The AIC is pleased to have the opportunity to contribute to the Committee's Inquiry into the high level of involvement of Indigenous juveniles and young adults in the criminal justice system. • There is a great deal of evidence to demonstrate that Indigenous young people are significantly over-represented at every stage of the criminal justice system in Australia.

EGFR expression as a predictor of survival for first-line chemotherapy plus cetuximab in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer : analysis of data from the phase 3 FLEX study

Background: Findings from the phase 3 First-Line ErbituX in lung cancer (FLEX) study showed that the addition of cetuximab to first-line chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival compared with chemotherapy alone (hazard ratio [HR] 0·871, 95% CI 0·762-0·996; p=0·044) in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). To define patients benefiting most from cetuximab, we studied the association of tumour EGFR expression level with clinical outcome in FLEX study patients. Methods: We used prospectively collected tumour EGFR expression data to generate an immunohistochemistry score for FLEX study patients on a continuous scale of 0-300. We used response data to select an outcome-based discriminatory threshold immunohistochemistry score for EGFR expression of 200. Treatment outcome was analysed in patients with low (immunohistochemistry score <200) and high (≥200) tumour EGFR expression. The primary endpoint in the FLEX study was overall survival. We analysed patients from the FLEX intention-to-treat (ITT) population. The FLEX study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. Findings: Tumour EGFR immunohistochemistry data were available for 1121 of 1125 (99·6%) patients from the FLEX study ITT population. High EGFR expression was scored for 345 (31%) evaluable patients and low for 776 (69%) patients. For patients in the high EGFR expression group, overall survival was longer in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group than in the chemotherapy alone group (median 12·0 months [95% CI 10·2-15·2] vs 9·6 months [7·6-10·6]; HR 0·73, 0·58-0·93; p=0·011), with no meaningful increase in side-effects. We recorded no corresponding survival benefit for patients in the low EGFR expression group (median 9·8 months [8·9-12·2] vs 10·3 months [9·2-11·5]; HR 0·99, 0·84-1·16; p=0·88). A treatment interaction test assessing the difference in the HRs for overall survival between the EGFR expression groups suggested a predictive value for EGFR expression (p=0·044). Interpretation: High EGFR expression is a tumour biomarker that can predict survival benefit from the addition of cetuximab to first-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC. Assessment of EGFR expression could offer a personalised treatment approach in this setting. Funding: Merck KGaA. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Exploring the influences of country-level factors on mid-age women’s drink driving attitudes

Drink driving remains a major cause of serious and fatal car crashes in Australia and internationally. While this problem is more prevalent among male drivers, the rates of female intoxicated drivers have increased steadily over the past decades in many motorised countries. A combination of police enforcement, media awareness campaigns, and community initiatives has played a key role in reducing incidents of illegal drink driving by targeting public drink driving attitudes. However, important cultural differences in regards to the tolerance towards drink driving have been noted. While many countries, including Australia, have a legal Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) limit of .05 or higher, some countries have moved towards a zero –or low tolerance approach to drink driving; several European countries, including Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, and Estonia currently enforce .00 or .02 BAC limits.

Primary stability of two uncemented acetabular components of different geometry : hemispherical or peripherally enhanced?

Objective This study compared the primary stability of two commercially available acetabular components from the same manufacturer, which differ only in geometry; a hemispherical and a peripherally enhanced design (peripheral self-locking (PSL)). The objective was to determine whether altered geometry resulted in better primary stability. Methods Acetabular components were seated with 0.8 mm to 2 mm interference fits in reamed polyethylene bone substrate of two different densities (0.22 g/cm3 and 0.45 g/cm3). The primary stability of each component design was investigated by measuring the peak failure load during uniaxial pull-out and tangential lever-out tests. Results There was no statistically significant difference in seating force (p = 0.104) or primary stability (pull-out p = 0.171, lever-out p = 0.087) of the two components in the low-density substrate. Similarly, in the high-density substrate, there was no statistically significant difference in the peak pull-out force (p = 0.154) or lever-out moment (p = 0.574) between the designs. However, the PSL component required a significantly higher seating force thanthe hemispherical cup in the high-density bone analogue (p = 0.006). Conclusions Higher seating forces associated with the PSL design may result in inadequate seating and increased risk of component malpositioning or acetabular fracture in the intra-operative setting in high-density bone stock. Our results, if translated clinically, suggest that a purely hemispherical geometry may have an advantage over a peripherally enhanced geometry in high density bone stock.