Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species' growth rate during migration. Mark-recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21 degrees S-34.00 degrees S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark-recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by -0.0236 and -0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Methodological innovation in precarious spaces: The case of Twitter

Social media analytics is a rapidly developing field of research at present: new, powerful ‘big data’ research methods draw on the Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) of social media platforms. Twitter has proven to be a particularly productive space for such methods development, initially due to the explicit support and encouragement of Twitter, Inc. However, because of the growing commercialisation of Twitter data, and the increasing API restrictions imposed by Twitter, Inc., researchers are now facing a considerably less welcoming environment, and are forced to find additional funding for paid data access, or to bend or break the rules of the Twitter API. This article considers the increasingly precarious nature of ‘big data’ Twitter research, and flags the potential consequences of this shift for academic scholarship.

The Great Gatsby and Ned Kelly: Telling national iconic stories through a transnational lens

This chapter will examine how transnational film making allows national and iconic stories to shift outside their imposed national boundaries, freeing them from “nation building” constraints and predetermined ideological motivations. Each interpretation creates one more dimension to the story’s complexity and hybridity assuring its continuance and relevance into the future. Each new film version, and in the case of iconic stories, each new transnational film version, breathes new energy and life into the stories and also stops monolithic ownership of them. What is also of interest in this chapter is the judgement cast upon each of the retelling and adaptations of these iconic stories. Every adaptation is weighed up and judged against a mythic ideal, and as such, each always falls short of imagined expectations. But in a paradoxical fashion, it is this failure to capture that provides the impetus for the story’s future retellings.

Polyaromatic profluorescent nitroxide probes with enhanced photostability

Novel profluorescent mono- and bis-​isoindoline nitroxides linked to naphthalimide and perylene diimide structural cores are described. These nitroxide-​fluorophore probes display strongly suppressed fluorescence in comparison to their corresponding non-​radical diamagnetic methoxyamine derivs. The perylene-​based probe possessing two isoindoline systems tethered through ethynyl linkages was shown to be the most photostable in soln., demonstrating significantly enhanced longevity over the 9,​10-​bis(phenylethynyl)​anthracene fluorophore used in previous profluorescent nitroxide probes.

Photo-​induced proton coupled electron transfer from a benzophenone 'antenna' to an isoindoline nitroxide

The current study reports the synthesis and properties of a novel isoindoline nitroxide contg. a benzophenone chromophore fused into the carbon framework. When exposed to UV light, rather than undergoing traditional benzophenone photochem. pathways, the presence of the nitroxide enables an energy transfer process whereby the nitroxide enters an excited state which induces an efficient hydrogen atom transfer from unactivated alkanes.

Catalytic transformation of aliphatic alcohols to corresponding esters in O2 under neutral conditions using visible-light irradiation

Selective oxidation of aliphatic alcohols under mild and base-free conditions is a challenging process for organic synthesis. Herein, we report a one-pot process for the direct oxidative esterification of aliphatic alcohols that is significantly enhanced by visible-light irradiation at ambient temperatures. The new methodology uses heterogenerous photocatalysts of gold–palladium alloy nanoparticles on a phosphate-modified hydrotalcite support and molecular oxygen as a benign oxidant. The alloy photocatalysts can absorb incident light, and the light-excited metal electrons on the surface of metal nanoparticles can activate the adsorbed reactant molecules. Tuning the light intensity and wavelength of the irradiation can remarkably change the reaction activity. Shorter wavelength light (<550 nm) drives the reaction more efficiently than light of longer wavelength (e.g., 620 nm), especially at low temperatures. The phosphate-exchanged hydrotalcite support provides sufficient basicity (and buffer) for the catalytic reactions; thus, the addition of base is not required. The photocatalysts are efficient and readily recyclable. The findings reveal the first example of using “green” oxidants and light energy to drive direct oxidative esterification of aliphatic alcohols under base-free, mild conditions.

ESR measurements of the partitioning of some new spin probes in n-octanol-water

The stable free radical 1,1,3,3-tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl (TMIO) has proved to be very suitable for use as a spin probe for a number of applications. Because it is soluble mainly in non-polar liquids, there is a need for new derivatives that can be used in a variety of environments. This has been done by introducing substituents in the 5-position of the aromatic ring, namely carboxyl (CTMIO), trimethylamino (TMTMIOI) and sodium sulphonate (NaTMIOS). An accurate ESR method was developed for the measurement of partition coefficients in n-octanol–water. For comparison purposes the method was also applied to some Tempo derivatives. The effect of temperature on the rotational correlation times and the nitrogen-14 hyperfine coupling constant of some of the spin probes was investigated. There is evidence for dimerization of CTMIO to form a biradical

Spin it to win it: A comparison of constraints-led versus traditional coaching approaches

This thesis aimed to compare the effects of constraints-led and traditional coaching approaches on young cricket spin bowlers, with a specific research focus on increasing spin rates (i.e., Revolutions per Minute). Participants were 22 spin bowlers from either an Australia state youth squad or an academy in England. Results indicate that adopting a constraints-led approach can benefit younger, inexperienced bowlers, whilst a traditional approach may assist more skilled, older bowlers. The findings are discussed with regards to how they may inform the learning design of training programs by cricket coaches.

How to develop an online community for pre-service and early career teachers

This paper contributes a number of design principles for developing large-scale online communities of pre-service and early career teachers (PS&ECTs). It presents the paradigms of connected learning, networked learning and communities of practice and contrasts them. It describes the potential for online communities to meet the needs of PS&ECTs and it identifies gaps that exist within certain types of existing online communities that currently support PS&ECTs. The paper proposes design principles for a new type of online community for PS&ECTs. These principles are drawn from the literature and from the preliminary outcomes of a pilot study.

Sampling Methods for Exploring Between Subject Variability in Cardiac Electrophysiology Experiments

Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

Destination image: identifying baseline perceptions of Brazil, Argentina and Chile in the nascent Australian long haul travel market

While the popularity of destination image research has increased exponentially in the literature, there has been relatively little published about perceptions held by international consumers of destinations in South America. The purpose of this paper is to report the findings of a research project that aimed to identify the baseline market perceptions of Brazil, Argentina and Chile amongst Australian residents, at the time of the emergence of this long haul market. Of interest was the extent to which Australians differentiate the three distinct countries versus perceiving the continent as a gestalt. These baseline perceptions enable the effectiveness of future marketing communications in Australia by the three national tourism offices to be monitored over time. Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) is used as a practical analytical tool to guide decision makers. In terms of operationalising destination image, a key research finding was the very high ratio or participants using the ‘Don’t know’ (DK) option for each destination performance scale item. This finding has practical implications for the destination marketers, as well as for researchers engaged in destination image research in long haul and/or emerging markets.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10−8). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10−8), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ~2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10−9 to P = 1.8 × 10−40) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10−3 to P = 1.2 × 10−13). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.