Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

The development of a component to improve the loading safety of bone-anchored prostheses

Use of socket prostheses Currently, for individuals with limb loss, the conventional method of attaching a prosthetic limb relies on a socket that fits over the residual limb. However, there are a number of issues concerning the use of a socket (e.g., blisters, irritation, and discomfort) that result in dissatisfaction with socket prostheses, and these lead ultimately a significant decrease in quality of life. Bone-anchored prosthesis Alternatively, the concept of attaching artificial limbs directly to the skeletal system has been developed (bone anchored prostheses), as it alleviates many of the issues surrounding the conventional socket interface.Bone anchored prostheses rely on two critical components: the implant, and the percutaneous abutment or adapter, which forms the connection for the external prosthetic system (Figure 1). To date, an implant that screws into the long bone of the residual limb has been the most common intervention. However, more recently, press-fit implants have been introduced and their use is increasing. Several other devices are currently at various stages of development, particularly in Europe and the United States. Benefits of bone-anchored prostheses Several key studies have demonstrated that bone-anchored prostheses have major clinical benefits when compared to socket prostheses (e.g., quality of life, prosthetic use, body image, hip range of motion, sitting comfort, ease of donning and doffing, osseoperception (proprioception), walking ability) and acceptable safety, in terms of implant stability and infection. Additionally, this method of attachment allows amputees to participate in a wide range of daily activities for a substantially longer duration. Overall, the system has demonstrated a significant enhancement to quality of life. Challenges of direct skeletal attachment However, due to the direct skeletal attachment, serious injury and damage can occur through excessive loading events such as during a fall (e.g., component damage, peri-prosthetic fracture, hip dislocation, and femoral head fracture). These incidents are costly (e.g., replacement of components) and could require further surgical interventions. Currently, these risks are limiting the acceptance of bone-anchored technology and the substantial improvement to quality of life that this treatment offers. An in-depth investigation into these risks highlighted a clear need to re-design and improve the componentry in the system (Figure 2), to improve the overall safety during excessive loading events. Aim and purposes The ultimate aim of this doctoral research is to improve the loading safety of bone-anchored prostheses, to reduce the incidence of injury and damage through the design of load restricting components, enabling individuals fitted with the system to partake in everyday activities, with increased security and self-assurance. The safety component will be designed to release or ‘fail’ external to the limb, in a way that protects the internal bone-implant interface, thus removing the need for restorative surgery and potential damage to the bone. This requires detailed knowledge of the loads typically experienced by the limb and an understanding of potential overload situations that might occur. Hence, a comprehensive review of the loading literature surrounding bone anchored prostheses will be conducted as part of this project, with the potential for additional experimental studies of the loads during normal activities to fill in gaps in the literature. This information will be pivotal in determining the specifications for the properties of the safety component, and the bone-implant system. The project will follow the Stanford Biodesign process for the development of the safety component.

Equilibrium studies of ammonium exchange with Australian natural zeolites

This paper is concerned with the study of the equilibrium exchange of ammonium ions with two natural zeolite samples sourced in Australia from Castle Mountain Zeolites and Zeolite Australia. A range of sorption models including Langmuir Vageler, Competitive Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, Dubinin Astakhov and Brouers–Sotolongo were applied in order to gain an insight as to the exchange process. In contrast to most previous studies, non-linear regression was used in all instances to determine the best fit of the experimental data. Castle Mountain natural zeolite was found to exhibit higher ammonium capacity than Zeolite Australia material when in the freshly received state, and this behavior was related to the greater amount of sodium ions present relative to calcium ions on the zeolite exchange sites. The zeolite capacity for ammonium ions was also found to be dependent on the solution normality, with 35–60% increase inuptake noted when increasing the ammonium concentration from 250 to 1000 mg/L. The optimal fit ofthe equilibrium data was achieved by the Freundlich expression as confirmed by use of Akaikes Information Criteria. It was emphasized that the bottle-point method chosen influenced the isotherm profile in several ways, and could lead to misleading interpretation of experiments, especially if the constant zeolite mass approach was followed. Pre-treatment of natural zeolite with acid and subsequently sodium hydroxide promoted the uptake of ammonium species by at least 90%. This paper highlighted the factors which should be taken into account when investigating ammonium ion exchange with natural zeolites.

Estimation and partitioning of polygenic variation captured by common SNPs for Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis and endometriosis

Common diseases such as endometriosis (ED), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) account for a significant proportion of the health care burden in many countries. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for these diseases have identified a number of individual genetic variants contributing to the risk of those diseases. However, the effect size for most variants is small and collectively the known variants explain only a small proportion of the estimated heritability. We used a linear mixed model to fit all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) simultaneously, and estimated genetic variances on the liability scale using SNPs from GWASs in unrelated individuals for these three diseases. For each of the three diseases, case and control samples were not all genotyped in the same laboratory. We demonstrate that a careful analysis can obtain robust estimates, but also that insufficient quality control (QC) of SNPs can lead to spurious results and that too stringent QC is likely to remove real genetic signals. Our estimates show that common SNPs on commercially available genotyping chips capture significant variation contributing to liability for all three diseases. The estimated proportion of total variation tagged by all SNPs was 0.26 (SE 0.04) for ED, 0.24 (SE 0.03) for AD and 0.30 (SE 0.03) for MS. Further, we partitioned the genetic variance explained into five categories by a minor allele frequency (MAF), by chromosomes and gene annotation. We provide strong evidence that a substantial proportion of variation in liability is explained by common SNPs, and thereby give insights into the genetic architecture of the diseases.

Marker selection by Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

We carried out a discriminant analysis with identity by descent (IBD) at each marker as inputs, and the sib pair type (affected-affected versus affected-unaffected) as the output. Using simple logistic regression for this discriminant analysis, we illustrate the importance of comparing models with different number of parameters. Such model comparisons are best carried out using either the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). When AIC (or BIC) stepwise variable selection was applied to the German Asthma data set, a group of markers were selected which provide the best fit to the data (assuming an additive effect). Interestingly, these 25-26 markers were not identical to those with the highest (in magnitude) single-locus lod scores.

International contact lens prescribing in 2014

Since the late 1990s, the International Contact Lens Prescribing Survey Consortium has prospectively gathered information about 285,000 contact lens fits from more than 50 countries. This article presents our 14th annual summary of current trends published in Contact Lens Spectrum. With only minor differences in the distribution of our surveys among markets, we have continued to adopt the same approach throughout the past 18 years. Through national coordinators, we approach contact lens prescribers in each country and ask them to record information about the first 10 patients whom they fit with contact lenses after receipt of our survey form. The information collected is generic, and respondents are weighted to reflect the volume of contact lens fits undertaken by each. For this 2014 report, we present information about 25,179 contact lens fits from 32 countries...

International contact lens prescribing in 2015

We have been collecting data on worldwide contact lens prescribing habits for almost 20 years. Over this time period, we have amassed prospective information about 315,000 contact lens fits in 59 countries. This article marks our 15th report in Contact Lens Spectrum and features a breakdown of more than 23,000 contact lens fits in 34 markets. As in previous years, our international network of coordinators distributed survey forms to eyecare practitioners in their market who then recorded generic information about the first 10 patients fit with contact lenses after receipt. Information is gathered about patient age and gender; whether the contact lenses are prescribed as a new fit or a refit; contact lens material, design, and replacement frequency; number of intended days per week of use; wearing modality; and care system. Contact lens fits are weighted to reflect the number of fits undertaken by each eyecare practitioner. The study data were entered and processed at the University of Manchester and at the University of Waterloo.

Exclusive consumers: The discourse of privilege in elite Indian school websites

This chapter undertakes a study of how elite schools in India have a historical, colonial legacy while incorporating global, market oriented, international agenda to fit in with present times. Drawing on Bourdieu’s notion of elite schools and Foucault’s theory of discourse, a qualitative analysis is undertaken of 21 elite schools. The primary argument advanced is that the websites of the schools contain the discourses of privilege and distinction along with the discourses of inclusion and exclusion, market ideology and individual merit with the aim being to promote a local, global elite ascendancy.

Turning up the Heat on Admissions: A Study of the Impacts of Extreme Heat Events on Tasmanian Hospital Admissions 2003-2010

Introduction: Extreme heat events (both heat waves and extremely hot days) are increasing in frequency and duration globally and cause more deaths in Australia than any other extreme weather event. Numerous studies have demonstrated a link between extreme heat events and an increased risk of morbidity and death. In this study, the researchers sought to identify if extreme heat events in the Tasmanian population were associated with any changes in emergency department admissions to the Royal Hobart Hospital (RHH) for the period 2003-2010. Methods: Non-identifiable RHH emergency department data and climate data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology were obtained for the period 2003-2010. Statistical analyses were conducted using the computer statistical computer software ‘R’ with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) package used to fit a quassi-Poisson generalised linear regression model. Results: This study showed that RR of admission to RHH during 2003-2010 was significant over temperatures of 24 C with a lag effect lasting 12 days and main effect noted one day after the extreme heat event. Discussion: This study demonstrated that extreme heat events have a significant impact on public hospital admissions. Two limitations were identified: admissions data rather than presentations data were used and further analysis could be done to compare types of admissions and presentations between heat and non-heat events. Conclusion: With the impacts of climate change already being felt in Australia, public health organisations in Tasmania and the rest of Australia need to implement adaptation strategies to enhance resilience to protect the public from the adverse health effects of heat events and climate change.

The importance of a precise definition, comprehensive model, and critical discussion of successful aging at work

It is crucial to advance understanding of the concept of successful aging at work to guide rigorous future research and effective practice. Drawing on the gerontology and life-span developmental literatures, I recently proposed a definition and theoretical framework of successful aging at work that revolve around employees increasingly deviating from average developmental trajectories across the working life span. Based on sustainability, person–job fit, and proactivity theories, Kooij suggested an alternative perspective that emphasizes the active role of employees for successful aging at work. In this article, I compare the 2 approaches and attempt a partial integration. I highlight the importance of a precise definition, comprehensive model, and critical discussion of successful aging at work. Furthermore, I suggest that person–environment fit variables other than person–job fit (e.g., person–organization fit) and adapting to person–environment misfit may also contribute to successful aging at work. Finally, I argue that proactive behaviors must have age-differential effects on work outcomes to be considered personal resources for successful aging at work.

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5

Aims We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. Methods We implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-redshift galaxies. Results Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae alone; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak-lensing field-to-field variance between 1 deg2-MegaCam pointings is 5-15% higher than predicted from N-body simulations. We find no bias in the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model, and marginalising over cosmological parameters. Assuming a systematic underestimation of the lensing signal, the normalisation increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10 < 1 + w < 0.06 at 68% confidence ( -0.18 < 1 + w < 0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Our results are therefore consistent with the cosmological constant . Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15.

Reactions to changes in work control: Implications for self-determined and non-self-determined individuals

We investigate the extent to which individuals’ global motivation (self-determined and non-self-determined types) influences adjustment (anxiety, positive reappraisal) and engagement (intrinsic motivation, task performance) in reaction to changes to the level of work control available during a work simulation. Participants (N = 156) completed 2 trials of an inbox activity under conditions of low or high work control—with the ordering of these levels varied to create an increase, decrease, or no change in work control. In support of the hypotheses, results revealed that for more self-determined individuals, high work control led to the increased use of positive reappraisal. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in positive reappraisal observed for self-determined individuals in the conditions in which work control was high by Trial 2 consequently increased their intrinsic motivation toward the task. For more non-self-determined individuals, high work control (as well as changes in work control) led to elevated anxiety. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in anxiety observed for non-self-determined individuals in the high-to-high work control condition consequently reduced their task performance. It is concluded that adjustment to a demanding work task depends on a fit between individuals’ global motivation and the work control available, which has consequences for engagement with demanding work.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Achieving a national sample of nursing homes: Balancing probability techniques and practicalities

Sampling design is critical to the quality of quantitative research, yet it does not always receive appropriate attention in nursing research. The current article details how balancing probability techniques with practical considerations produced a representative sample of Australian nursing homes (NHs). Budgetary, logistical, and statistical constraints were managed by excluding some NHs (e.g., those too difficult to access) from the sampling frame; a stratified, random sampling methodology yielded a final sample of 53 NHs from a population of 2,774. In testing the adequacy of representation of the study population, chi-square tests for goodness of fit generated nonsignificant results for distribution by distance from major city and type of organization. A significant result for state/territory was expected and was easily corrected for by the application of weights. The current article provides recommendations for conducting high-quality, probability-based samples and stresses the importance of testing the representativeness of achieved samples.

Developing an evolutionary/ecological approach in enterprise education

This paper presents an ecological/evolutionary approach to enterprise education. Ecological approaches are used at the University of Tasmania to heighten the awareness of students to a raft of difficult to observe environmental factors associated with developing enterprising ideas. At Sheffield University, the discovery and exploitation of entrepreneurial opportunities is viewed as a co-evolving system of emerging business ideas, and routines/heuristics respectively. It is argued that using both approaches enables students to develop a greater awareness of their situated environment, and ultimately the degree of fit between their learning process and a changing external world. The authors argue that in order to improve the chances of longer-term survival what is needed is a new level of organisation where the individual is capable of developing a representation of the external world that he or she can use to sense the appropriateness of local decisions. This reinterpretation of events allows individuals to step back and examine the broader consequences of their actions through the interpretation and anticipation of feedback from the environment. These approaches thus seek to develop practice-based heuristics which individuals can use to make sense of their lived experiences, as they learn to evolve in an increasingly complex world.