An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Investigating relationships between relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation : an empirical study of convenience stores' franchise chain systems

Small business has been shown to contribute significantly to a nation’s economic development. Small business owners typically confront challenges, uncertainty, and risks while operating new businesses. Franchising has become a way to minimize the risks of small business management (Chiou et al., 2004); however, a franchise system is not a guarantee of business success (Lee and Karkovista, 2001). A poor franchising relationship between franchisors and franchisees can result in franchise failure, such as termination and closure, or franchisee exit (Frazer and Winzar, 2005).

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

A taint marking approach to confidentiality violation detection

This article presents a novel approach to confidentiality violation detection based on taint marking. Information flows are dynamically tracked between applications and objects of the operating system such as files, processes and sockets. A confidentiality policy is defined by labelling sensitive information and defining which information may leave the local system through network exchanges. Furthermore, per application profiles can be defined to restrict the sets of information each application may access and/or send through the network. In previous works, we focused on the use of mandatory access control mechanisms for information flow tracking. In this current work, we have extended the previous information flow model to track network exchanges, and we are able to define a policy attached to network sockets. We show an example application of this extension in the context of a compromised web browser: our implementation detects a confidentiality violation when the browser attempts to leak private information to a remote host over the network.

A design approach to teaching new product development

The educational unit new product development, taught within the industrial design program at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) introduces the relationship between product design and commercialisation to third year industrial design undergraduate students. In which, they are exposed for the first time to product strategy development aimed at meeting consumer expectations, whilst at the same time achieving corporate objectives. Delivered content such as intellectual property, market opportunities, competitor analysis and investor requirements are taught within the thirteen week semester timeframe. New product development theory is not a new field. However, the design approach to teaching this theory and more importantly how designers can use it in the design process is novel. This paper provides an overview of the curriculum design of this unit as well as its incremental development over the past four year duration period. Student project outcomes and more importantly the process and tools from this unit are also discussed and presented.

Information sharing with key suppliers : a contingency approach

This paper focuses on information sharing with key suppliers and seeks to explore the factors that might influence its extent and depth. We also investigate how information sharing affects a company’s performance with regards to resource usage, output, and flexibility. Drawing from transaction cost- and contingency theories, several factors, namely environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty, dependency and, the product life cycle stage are proposed to explain the level of information shared with key suppliers. We develop a model where information sharing mediates the (contingent) factors and company performance. A mail survey was used to collect data from Finnish and Swedish companies. Partial Least Squares analysis was separately performed for each country (n=119, n=102). There was consistent evidence that environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty and supplier/buyer dependency had explanatory power, whereas no significance was found for the product life cycle stage. The results also confirm previous studies by providing support for a positive relationship between information sharing and performance, where output performance was found to be the most strongly related

Tracking employees' twists and turns : describing a mixed methods approach to assessing change in the psychological contract

The psychological contract is a key analytical device utilised by both academics and practitioners to conceptualise and explore the dynamics of the employment relationship. However, despite the recognised import of the construct, some authors suggest that its empirical investigation has fallen into a 'methodological rut' [Conway & Briner, 2005, p. 89] and is neglecting to assess key tenets of the concept, such as its temporal and dynamic nature. This paper describes the research design of a longitudinal, mixed methods study which draws upon the strengths of both qualitative and quantitative modes of inquiry in order to explore the development of, and changes in, the psychological contract. Underpinned by a critical realist philosophy, the paper seeks to offer a research design suitable for exploring the process of change not only within the psychological contract domain, but also for similar constructs in the human resource management and broader organisational behaviour fields.

A Regularization Approach to Metrical Task Systems

We address the problem of constructing randomized online algorithms for the Metrical Task Systems (MTS) problem on a metric δ against an oblivious adversary. Restricting our attention to the class of “work-based” algorithms, we provide a framework for designing algorithms that uses the technique of regularization. For the case when δ is a uniform metric, we exhibit two algorithms that arise from this framework, and we prove a bound on the competitive ratio of each. We show that the second of these algorithms is ln n + O(loglogn) competitive, which is the current state-of-the art for the uniform MTS problem.

Service delivery in one-stop government portals : observations based on a market research study in Queensland

New government service delivery models based on a “franchise” metaphor are being proposed recently to allow more citizen-centric service delivery by decoupling the government’s internal departmental structure from the way services are presented and delivered to citizens. In order to evaluate the approach from an online channel perspective, the Queensland Government commissioned a market research study to compare their websites with the online presences of the UK Government and the South Australian Government, who both have adopted the “franchise” approach. The study aimed to inform an understanding of citizens’ preferred model for interacting in the online channel and to identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of the existing websites. In this paper, we will a) report on the findings of this third party usability study and b) position the study, in the form of a critical reflection, against the background of a more comprehensive “Transformational Government” approach using a “franchise marketplace”. The critical reflection points towards limitations of the study with regard to this bigger picture and discusses the potential benefits of service bundling that remained unconsidered in the study.

Where do we find services in enterprise architectures? A comparative approach

In recent years, enterprise architecture (EA) has captured growing attention as a means to systematically consolidate and interrelate diverse IT artefacts in order to provide holistic decision support. Since the emergence of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), many attempts have been made to incorporate SOA artefacts in existing EA frameworks. Yet the approaches taken to achieve this goal differ substantially for the most commonly used EA frameworks to date. This paper investigates and compares five widely used EA frameworks in the way they embrace the SOA paradigm. It identifies what SOA artefacts are considered to be in the respective EA frameworks and their relative position in the overall structure. The results show that services and related artefacts are far from being well-integrated constructs in current EA frameworks. The comparison presented in this paper will support practitioners in identifying an EA framework that provides SOA support in a way that matches their requirements and will hopefully inspire the academic EA and SOA communities to work on a closer integration of these architectures.

Efficiency of research performance of Australian universities : a reappraisal using a bootstrap truncated regression approach

The motivation of the study stems from the results reported in the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) 2010 report. The report showed that only 12 universities performed research at or above international standards, of which, the Group of Eight (G8) universities filled the top eight spots. While performance of universities was based on number of research outputs, total amount of research income and other quantitative indicators, the measure of efficiency or productivity was not considered. The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, to provide a review of the research performance of 37 Australian universities using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) bootstrap approach of Simar and Wilson (2007). Second, to determine sources of productivity drivers by regressing the efficiency scores against a set of environmental variables.

Ensuring Correctness During Process Configuration via Partner Synthesis

Variants of the same process can be encountered within one organization or across different organizations. For example, different municipalities, courts, and rental agencies all need to support highly similar processes. In fact, procurement and sales processes can be found in almost any organization. However, despite these similarities, there is also the need to allow for local variations in a controlled manner. Therefore, many academics and practitioners have advocated the use of configurable process models (sometimes referred to as reference models). A configurable process model describes a family of similar process models in a given domain. Such a model can be configured to obtain a specific process model that is subsequently used to handle individual cases, for instance, to process customer orders. Process configuration is notoriously difficult as there may be all kinds of interdependencies between configuration decisions. In fact, an incorrect configuration may lead to behavioral issues such as deadlocks and livelocks. To address this problem, we present a novel verification approach inspired by the “operating guidelines” used for partner synthesis. We view the configuration process as an external service, and compute a characterization of all such services which meet particular requirements via the notion of configuration guideline. As a result, we can characterize all feasible configurations (i. e., configurations without behavioral problems) at design time, instead of repeatedly checking each individual configuration while configuring a process model.

Comparing cost uplift in infrastructure delivery methods : a case based approach

In 2009 the Australian Federal and State governments are expected to have spent some AU$30 billion procuring infrastructure projects. For governments with finite resources but many competing projects, formal capital rationing is achieved through use of Business Cases. These Business cases articulate the merits of investing in particular projects along with the estimated costs and risks of each project. Despite the sheer size and impact of infrastructure projects, there is very little research in Australia, or internationally, on the performance of these projects against Business Case assumptions when the decision to invest is made. If such assumptions (particularly cost assumptions) are not met, then there is serious potential for the misallocation of Australia’s finite financial resources. This research addresses this important gap in the literature by using combined quantitative and qualitative research methods, to examine the actual performance of 14 major Australian government infrastructure projects. The research findings are controversial as they challenge widely held perceptions of the effectiveness of certain infrastructure delivery practices. Despite this controversy, the research has had a significant impact on the field and has been described as ‘outstanding’ and ‘definitive’ (Alliancing Association of Australasia), "one of the first of its kind" (Infrastructure Partnerships of Australia) and "making a critical difference to infrastructure procurement" (Victorian Department of Treasury). The implications for practice of the research have been profound and included the withdrawal by Government of various infrastructure procurement guidelines, the formulation of new infrastructure policies by several state governments and the preparation of new infrastructure guidelines that substantially reflect the research findings. Building on the practical research, a more rigorous academic investigation focussed on the comparative cost uplift of various project delivery strategies was submitted to Australia’s premier academic management conference, the Australian and New Zealand Academy of Management (ANZAM) Annual Conference. This paper has been accepted for the 2010 ANZAM National Conference following a process of double blind peer review with reviewers rating the paper’s overall contribution as "Excellent" and "Good".