718 resultados para Bayesian method
Resumo:
Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) is a well known form of environmental attack in low carat gold jewellery. It is desirable to have a quick, easy and cost effective way to detect SCC in alloys and prevent them from being used and later failing in their application. A facile chemical method to investigate SCC of 9 carat gold alloys is demonstrated. It involves a simple application of tensile stress to a wire sample in a corrosive environment such as 1–10 % FeCl3 which induces failure in less than 5 minutes. In this study three quaternary (Au, Ag, Cu and Zn) 9 carat gold alloy compositions were investigated for their resistance to SCC and the relationship between time to failure and processing conditions is studied. It is envisaged that the use of such a rapid and facile screening procedure at the production stage may readily identify alloy treatments that produce jewellery that will be susceptible to SCC in its lifetime.
Resumo:
A method for producing particles having at least regions of at least one metal oxide having nano-sized grains comprises providing particles of material having an initial, non-equiaxed particle shape, making a mixture of the particles of material and one or more precursors of the metal oxide, and treating the mixture such that the one or more precursors of the metal oxide react with the particles of material to thereby form at least regions of metal oxide on or within the particles, wherein atoms from the particles of material form part of a matrix of the at least one metal oxide and the at least one metal oxide has nano-sized grains and wherein at least some of the regions of metal oxide on or within the particles have a non-equiaxed grain shape.
Resumo:
A method of producing porous complex oxides includes the steps of providing a mixt. of (a) precursor elements suitable to produce the complex oxide, or (b) one or more precursor elements suitable to produce particles of the complex oxide and one or more metal oxide particles; and (c) a particulate carbon-contg. pore-forming material selected to provide pore sizes in the range of 7-250 nm, and treating the mixt. to (i) form the porous complex oxide in which two or more of the precursor elements from (a) above or one or more of the precursor elements and one or more of the metals in the metal oxide particles from (b) above are incorporated into a phase of the complex metal oxide and the complex metal oxide has grain sizes in the range of 1-150 nm, and (ii) removing the pore-forming material under conditions such that the porous structure and compn. of the complex oxide is substantially preserved. The method may be used to produce nonrefractory metal oxides as well. The mixt. further includes a surfactant, or a polymer. [on SciFinder(R)]
Resumo:
A method for forming a material comprising a metal oxide supported on a support particle comprising the steps of: (a) providing a precursor mixt. comprising a soln. contg. one or more metal cations and (i) a surfactant; or (ii) a hydrophilic polymer; said precursor mixt. further including support particles; and (b) treating the precursor mixt. from (a) above by heating to remove the surfactant or hydrophilic polymer and form metal oxide having nanosized grains, wherein at least some of the metal oxide formed in step (b) is deposited on or supported by the support particles and the metal oxide has an oxide matrix that includes metal atoms derived solely from sources other than the support particles. The disclosure and examples pertain to emission control catalysts. [on SciFinder(R)]
Resumo:
Toxic blooms of Lyngbya majuscula occur in coastal areas worldwide and have major ecological, health and economic consequences. The exact causes and combinations of factors which lead to these blooms are not clearly understood. Lyngbya experts and stakeholders are a particularly diverse group, including ecologists, scientists, state and local government representatives, community organisations, catchment industry groups and local fishermen. An integrated Bayesian Network approach was developed to better understand and model this complex environmental problem, identify knowledge gaps, prioritise future research and evaluate management options.
Resumo:
Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.
Resumo:
Bayesian networks (BNs) provide a statistical modelling framework which is ideally suited for modelling the many factors and components of complex problems such as healthcare-acquired infections. The methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) organism is particularly troublesome since it is resistant to standard treatments for Staph infections. Overcrowding and understa�ng are believed to increase infection transmission rates and also to inhibit the effectiveness of disease control measures. Clearly the mechanisms behind MRSA transmission and containment are very complicated and control strategies may only be e�ective when used in combination. BNs are growing in popularity in general and in medical sciences in particular. A recent Current Content search of the number of published BN journal articles showed a fi�ve fold increase in general and a six fold increase in medical and veterinary science from 2000 to 2009. This chapter introduces the reader to Bayesian network (BN) modelling and an iterative modelling approach to build and test the BN created to investigate the possible role of high bed occupancy on transmission of MRSA while simultaneously taking into account other risk factors.
Resumo:
Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.
Resumo:
Objective Surveillance programs and research for acute respiratory infections in remote Aboriginal communities are complicated by difficulties in the storage and transport of frozen samples to urban laboratories for testing. This study assessed the sensitivity of a simple method for transporting respiratory samples from a remote setting for viral PCR compared with frozen specimens. Methods We sampled every individual who presented to a remote Aboriginal community clinic in a non-epidemic respiratory season. Two anterior nasal swabs were collected from each participant. The left nare specimen was mailed to the laboratory via routine postal services. The right nare specimen was transported frozen. Testing for 16 viruses was undertaken using real-time multiplex PCR. Results A total of 140 participants were enrolled who contributed 150 study visits. Respiratory illnesses accounted for 10% of the reasons for presentation. Sixty-one viruses were identified in 50 (33.3%) presentations for 40 (28.6%) individuals; bocavirus and rhinovirus were the most common viruses identified (14.0% and 12.6% of episodes respectively). The sensitivity for any virus detected in mailed specimens was 67.2% (95%CI 55.4, 78.9) compared to 65.6% (95%CI 53.7, 77.5) for frozen specimens. Conclusion The mailing of unfrozen nasal specimens from remote communities does not compromise the viability of the specimen for viral studies.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a new iterative method to achieve an optimally fitting plate for preoperative planning purposes. The proposed method involves integration of four commercially available software tools, Matlab, Rapidform2006, SolidWorks and ANSYS, each performing specific tasks to obtain a plate shape that fits optimally for an individual tibia and is mechanically safe. A typical challenge when crossing multiple platforms is to ensure correct data transfer. We present an example of the implementation of the proposed method to demonstrate successful data transfer between the four platforms and the feasibility of the method.
Resumo:
Trees are capable of portraying the semi-structured data which is common in web domain. Finding similarities between trees is mandatory for several applications that deal with semi-structured data. Existing similarity methods examine a pair of trees by comparing through nodes and paths of two trees, and find the similarity between them. However, these methods provide unfavorable results for unordered tree data and result in yielding NP-hard or MAX-SNP hard complexity. In this paper, we present a novel method that encodes a tree with an optimal traversing approach first, and then, utilizes it to model the tree with its equivalent matrix representation for finding similarity between unordered trees efficiently. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed method is able to achieve high accuracy even on the large data sets.
Resumo:
Conditions of bridges deteriorate with age, due to different critical factors including, changes in loading, fatigue, environmental effects and natural events. In order to rate a network of bridges, based on their structural condition, the condition of the components of a bridge and their effects on behaviour of the bridge should be reliably estimated. In this paper, a new method for quantifying the criticality and vulnerability of the components of the railway bridges in a network will be introduced. The type of structural analyses for identifying the criticality of the components for carrying train loads will be determined. In addition to that, the analytical methods for identifying the vulnerability of the components to natural events whose probability of occurrence is important, such as, flood, wind, earthquake and collision will be determined. In order to maintain the practicality of this method to be applied to a network of thousands of railway bridges, the simplicity of structural analysis has been taken into account. Demand by capacity ratios of the components at both safety and serviceability condition states as well as weighting factors used in current bridge management systems (BMS) are taken into consideration. It will be explained what types of information related to the structural condition of a bridge is required to be obtained, recorded and analysed. The authors of this paper will use this method in a new rating system introduced previously. Enhancing accuracy and reliability of evaluating and predicting the vulnerability of railway bridges to environmental effects and natural events will be the significant achievement of this research.
Resumo:
In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sizedtrucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.