Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

In-training assessment - Its potential in enhancing clinical teaching

Context In-training assessment (ITA) has established its place alongside formative and summative assessment at both the undergraduate and postgraduate level. In this paper the authors aimed to identify those characteristics of ITA that could enhance clinical teaching. Methods A literature review and discussions by an expert working group at the Ninth Cambridge Conference identified the aspects of ITA that could enhance clinical teaching. Results The features of ITA identified included defining the specific benefits to the learner, teacher and institution, and highlighting the patient as the context for ITA and clinical teaching. The ‘mapping’ of a learner’s progress towards the clinical teaching objectives by using multiple assessments over time, by multiple observers in both a systematic and opportunistic way correlates with the incremental nature of reaching clinical competence. Conclusions The importance of ITA based on both direct and indirect evidence of what the learner actually does in the real clinical setting is emphasized. Particular attention is given to addressing concerns in the more controversial areas of assessor training, ratings and documentation for ITA. Areas for future research are also identified.

12-weeks supervised exercise training is a feasible and efficacious treatment for reducing depression in youth with major depressive disorder

Introduction: Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has high prevalence among adolescents and young adults. Evidence of any effective treatments is limited. Exercise as an effective treatment for adults has some support but studies in younger populations are lacking. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of brief motivational interviewing (MI) plus 12-weeks exercise training as a treatment for MDD in youth...

Guided respiration mindfulness therapy: Development and evaluation of a brief therapist training program

The present paper describes the development and evaluation of a standardized multi-component therapist training program in guided respiration mindfulness therapy (GRMT). GMRT is a manual-based, experimental clinical intervention involving concentrated focus on sustained self-regulation of breathing, application of mindfulness to emergent somatic experience and relaxation. Therapists (n = 61) new to the approach attended a 2-day experiential workshop and were evaluated pre-post workshop for change in intervention knowledge, as well as change in mindfulness. These trainees also participated in post-workshop focus group sessions to explore perception of the intervention. A subset of 40 therapists participated in a second training component, and 14 of these were rated for competent delivery of the intervention during participation in a clinical trial. During training, therapists personally received the treatment giving the opportunity to assess treatment session (n = 283) impact on sense of wellbeing. Results indicated a brief focused training program can equip therapists with basic knowledge and skills required to deliver the standardized manual-based treatment. Qualitative analysis of focus group sessions showed that therapists endorsed the intervention for clinical use and found it personally beneficial. This research provides a foundation for further evaluation of clinical effectiveness of the intervention.

Workplace training and generic and technical skill development in the Australian construction industry

- Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the current skills gap in both generic and skill areas within the construction industry in Queensland, Australia. - Design/methodology/approach An internet-based survey was administered to collect the opinions of construction employees about the workplace-training environment and their perceptions towards training. The survey intended to address the following research questions, specifically in relation to the construction industry. - Findings The survey results reveal that whilst overall participation in workplace training is high, the current workplace training environments do not foster balanced skill development. The study reveals that in the current absence of a formal and well-balanced training mechanism, construction workers generally resort to their own informal self-development initiatives to develop the needed role-specific theoretical knowledge. - Research limitations/implications The findings of the research are based on the data primarily collected in the construction industry in Queensland, Australia. The data are limited to a single Tier 2 construction company. - Practical implications The findings of this study can be utilised to suggest improvements in the current (or develop new) workplace training initiatives. - Social implications The research suggests that workplace training has positive relationship with career growth. The results suggest that in the construction industry, employees are generally well aware of the importance of workplace training in their career development and they largely appreciate training as being a critical factor for developing their capacity to perform their roles successfully, and to maintain their employability. - Originality/value This paper is unique as it investigates the current skills gap in both generic and skill areas within the construction industry in Queensland, Australia. So far no work has been undertaken to identify and discusses the main method of workplace learning within the Tier 2 industry in the context of Queensland Australia.

Training for reduction of design waste

Construction and demolition (C&D) waste have negative impacts on the environment. As a significant proportion of C&D waste is related to the design stage of a project, there is an opportunity for architects to reduce the waste. However, research suggests that many architects often do not understand the impact of their design on waste generation. Training and education are proposed by current researchers to improve architects’ knowledge; however, this has not been adequately validated as a viable approach to solving waste issues. This research investigates architects’ perceptions towards waste management in the design phase, and determines whether they feel they are adequately skilled in reducing C&D waste. Questionnaire surveys were distributed to architects from 98 architectural firms and 25 completed surveys were returned. The results show that while architects are aware of the relationship between design and waste, ‘extra time’ and ‘lack of knowledge’ are the key barriers to implementing waste reduction strategies. In addition, the majority of respondents acknowledge their lack of skill to reduce waste through design evaluation. Therefore, training programmes can be a viable strategy to enable them to address the pressing issue of C&D waste reduction.