An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Size effects on tensile and fatigue behaviour of polycrystalline metal foils at the micrometer scale

Tensile and fatigue properties of as-rolled and annealed polycrystalline Cu foils with different thicknesses at the micrometer scale were investigated. Uniaxial tensile testing results showed that with decreasing foil thickness the uniform elongation decreases for both as-rolled and annealed foils, whereas the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength increase for as-rolled foils, but decrease for the annealed foils. For both the as-rolled or annealed foils, bending fatigue resistance decreases with decreasing the foil thickness. Deformation and fatigue damage behaviour of the free-standing foils were characterised as a function of foil thickness. In addition, the fatigue strength of various small-scale Cu foils was compared to understand they physical mechanisms of size effects on mechanical properties of the metallic material at micrometer scales.

Optical waveguide and cavity effects on whispering-gallery mode resonances in a ZnO nanonail

Spatially resolved cathodoluminescence (CL) study of a ZnO nanonail, having thin shank, tapered neck, and hexagonal head sections, is reported. Monochromatic imaging and line scan profiling indicate that the wave guiding and leaking from growth imperfections in addition to the oxygen deficiency variation determine the spatial contrast of CL emissions. Occurrence of resonance peaks at identical wavelengths regardless of CL-excitation spots is inconsistent with the whispering-gallery mode (WGM) resonances of a two-dimensional cavity in the finite difference time domain simulation. However, three dimensioanl cavity simulation produced WGM peaks that are consistent with the experimental spectra, including transverse-electric resonances that are comparable to transverse-magnetic ones.

Order of instruction effects - do they make a difference when teaching senior chemistry with computer based visualizations?

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A Cochrane review on the effects of end-of-life care pathways : do they improve patient outcomes?

Clinical pathways for end-of-life care management are used widely around the world and have been regarded as the gold standard. The aim of this review was to assess the effects of end-of-life care pathways (EOLCP), compared with usual care (no pathway) or with care guided by a different end-of-life care pathway, across all healthcare settings (e.g. hospitals, residential aged care facilities, community). We searched the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Pain, Palliative and Supportive Care Review group specialised register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, review articles and reference lists of relevant articles. The search was carried out in September 2009. All randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-randomised trials or high quality controlled before and after studies comparing use versus non-use of an EOLCP in caring for the dying were considered for inclusion. The search identified 920 potentially relevant titles, but no studies met criteria for inclusion in the review. Without further available evidence, recommendations for the use of end-of-life pathways in caring for the dying cannot be made. There are now recent concerns regarding the big scale roll-out of EOLCP despite the lack of evidence, nurses should report any safety concerns or adverse effects associated with such pathways.