Statistical power calculation and sample size determination for environmental studies with data below detection limits

Power calculation and sample size determination are critical in designing environmental monitoring programs. The traditional approach based on comparing the mean values may become statistically inappropriate and even invalid when substantial proportions of the response values are below the detection limits or censored because strong distributional assumptions have to be made on the censored observations when implementing the traditional procedures. In this paper, we propose a quantile methodology that is robust to outliers and can also handle data with a substantial proportion of below-detection-limit observations without the need of imputing the censored values. As a demonstration, we applied the methods to a nutrient monitoring project, which is a part of the Perth Long-Term Ocean Outlet Monitoring Program. In this example, the sample size required by our quantile methodology is, in fact, smaller than that by the traditional t-test, illustrating the merit of our method.

Learning Temporal Alignment Uncertainty for Efficient Event Detection

In this paper we tackle the problem of efficient video event detection. We argue that linear detection functions should be preferred in this regard due to their scalability and efficiency during estimation and evaluation. A popular approach in this regard is to represent a sequence using a bag of words (BOW) representation due to its: (i) fixed dimensionality irrespective of the sequence length, and (ii) its ability to compactly model the statistics in the sequence. A drawback to the BOW representation, however, is the intrinsic destruction of the temporal ordering information. In this paper we propose a new representation that leverages the uncertainty in relative temporal alignments between pairs of sequences while not destroying temporal ordering. Our representation, like BOW, is of a fixed dimensionality making it easily integrated with a linear detection function. Extensive experiments on CK+, 6DMG, and UvA-NEMO databases show significant performance improvements across both isolated and continuous event detection tasks.

Rapid isolation and detection of erythropoietin in blood plasma by magnetic core gold nanoparticles and portable Raman spectroscopy

Isolating, purifying, and identifying proteins in complex biological matrices is often difficult, time consuming, and unreliable. Herein we describe a rapid screening technique for proteins in biological matrices that combines selective protein isolation with direct surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) detection. Magnetic core gold nanoparticles were synthesised, characterised, and subsequently functionalized with recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO)-specific antibody. The functionalized nanoparticles were used to capture rHuEPO from horse blood plasma within 15 minutes. The selective binding between the protein and the functionalized nanoparticles was monitored by SERS. The purified protein was then released from the nanoparticles’ surface and directly spectroscopically identified on a commercial nanopillar SERS substrate. ELISA independently confirmed the SERS identification and quantified the released rHuEPO. Finally, the direct SERS detection of the extracted protein was successfully demonstrated for in-field screening by a handheld Raman spectrometer within 1 minute sample measurement time.

Teledermatology: Its use in the detection and management of actinic keratosis

Teledermatology can profoundly improve access to medical services for those who may have limited access to dermatology due to workforce shortages, distance to providers, or limitations in their mobility. Two common ways of teledermatology are differentiated: life synchronous, where patient and doctor communicate directly, or store and forward asynchronous methods, where the patient and doctor provide and assess the medical information independently. Teledermatology has been tested for its safety, feasibility and accuracy for a number of dermatological conditions, including the early detection of skin cancer and is usually safe, feasible and accurate. Studies reported somewhat better results for synchronous than asynchronous methods, possibly because of loss of information if no direct patient doctor contact is feasible. However asynchronous methods are easier to organize, require less sophisticated technology and are more widely accessible, and are more convenient for both patients and doctors. No study to date focused solely on teledermatology of actinic keratosis, but such lesions are typically found during teledermatology examinations for other main target lesions. In studies where such results were reported, actinic keratoses seemed to be readily identifiable for teledermatologists and adequate management and treatment can be suggested within remote consultations.

A novel approach to assessing road-curve crash severity

Curves are a common feature of road infrastructure; however crashes on road curves are associated with increased risk of injury and fatality to vehicle occupants. Countermeasures require the identification of contributing factors. However, current approaches to identifying contributors use traditional statistical methods and have not used self-reported narrative claim to identify factors related to the driver, vehicle and environment in a systemic way. Text mining of 3434 road-curve crash claim records filed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 at a major insurer in Queensland, Australia, was undertaken to identify risk levels and contributing factors. Rough set analysis was used on insurance claim narratives to identify significant contributing factors to crashes and their associated severity. New contributing factors unique to curve crashes were identified (e.g., tree, phone, over-steer) in addition to those previously identified via traditional statistical analysis of Police and licensing authority records. Text mining is a novel methodology to improve knowledge related to risk and contributing factors to road-curve crash severity. Future road-curve crash countermeasures should more fully consider the interrelationships between environment, the road, the driver and the vehicle, and education campaigns in particular could highlight the increased risk of crash on road-curves.

Autonomous UAVs wildlife detection using thermal imaging, predictive navigation and computer vision

There is an increased interest on the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for wildlife and feral animal monitoring around the world. This paper describes a novel system which uses a predictive dynamic application that places the UAV ahead of a user, with a low cost thermal camera, a small onboard computer that identifies heat signatures of a target animal from a predetermined altitude and transmits that target’s GPS coordinates. A map is generated and various data sets and graphs are displayed using a GUI designed for easy use. The paper describes the hardware and software architecture and the probabilistic model for downward facing camera for the detection of an animal. Behavioral dynamics of target movement for the design of a Kalman filter and Markov model based prediction algorithm are used to place the UAV ahead of the user. Geometrical concepts and Haversine formula are applied to the maximum likelihood case in order to make a prediction regarding a future state of the user, thus delivering a new way point for autonomous navigation. Results show that the system is capable of autonomously locating animals from a predetermined height and generate a map showing the location of the animals ahead of the user.

MPC controlled multirotor with suspended slung load: System architecture and visual load detection

There is an increased interest in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for load transportation from environmental remote sensing to construction and parcel delivery. One of the main challenges is accurate control of the load position and trajectory. This paper presents an assessment of real flight trials for the control of an autonomous multi-rotor with a suspended slung load using only visual feedback to determine the load position. This method uses an onboard camera to take advantage of a common visual marker detection algorithm to robustly detect the load location. The load position is calculated using an onboard processor, and transmitted over a wireless network to a ground station integrating MATLAB/SIMULINK and Robotic Operating System (ROS) and a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to control both the load and the UAV. To evaluate the system performance, the position of the load determined by the visual detection system in real flight is compared with data received by a motion tracking system. The multi-rotor position tracking performance is also analyzed by conducting flight trials using perfect load position data and data obtained only from the visual system. Results show very accurate estimation of the load position (~5% Offset) using only the visual system and demonstrate that the need for an external motion tracking system is not needed for this task.

Decision trees for detection of activity intensity in youth with cerebral palsy

PURPOSE To develop and test decision tree (DT) models to classify physical activity (PA) intensity from accelerometer output and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) classification level in ambulatory youth with cerebral palsy (CP); and 2) compare the classification accuracy of the new DT models to that achieved by previously published cut-points for youth with CP. METHODS Youth with CP (GMFCS Levels I - III) (N=51) completed seven activity trials with increasing PA intensity while wearing a portable metabolic system and ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers. DT models were used to identify vertical axis (VA) and vector magnitude (VM) count thresholds corresponding to sedentary (SED) (<1.5 METs), light PA (LPA) (>/=1.5 and <3 METs) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (>/=3 METs). Models were trained and cross-validated using the 'rpart' and 'caret' packages within R. RESULTS For the VA (VA_DT) and VM decision trees (VM_DT), a single threshold differentiated LPA from SED, while the threshold for differentiating MVPA from LPA decreased as the level of impairment increased. The average cross-validation accuracy for the VC_DT was 81.1%, 76.7%, and 82.9% for GMFCS levels I, II, and III, respectively. The corresponding cross-validation accuracy for the VM_DT was 80.5%, 75.6%, and 84.2%, respectively. Within each GMFCS level, the decision tree models achieved better PA intensity recognition than previously published cut-points. The accuracy differential was greatest among GMFCS level III participants, in whom the previously published cut-points misclassified 40% of the MVPA activity trials. CONCLUSION GMFCS-specific cut-points provide more accurate assessments of MVPA levels in youth with CP across the full spectrum of ambulatory ability.

Quick abnormal-bid-detection method for construction contract auctions

Non-competitive bids have recently become a major concern in both Public and Private sector construction contract auctions. Consequently, several models have been developed to help identify bidders potentially involved in collusive practices. However, most of these models require complex calculations and extensive information that is difficult to obtain. The aim of this paper is to utilize recent developments for detecting abnormal bids in capped auctions (auctions with an upper bid limit set by the auctioner) and extend them to the more conventional uncapped auctions (where no such limits are set). To accomplish this, a new method is developed for estimating the values of bid distribution supports by using the solution to what has become known as the German tank problem. The model is then demonstrated and tested on a sample of real construction bid data and shown to detect cover bids with high accuracy. This work contributes to an improved understanding of abnormal bid behavior as an aid to detecting and monitoring potential collusive bid practices.

Infrared thermal imaging for automated detection of diabetic foot complications

Background Although thermal imaging can be a valuable technology in the prevention and management of diabetic foot disease, it is not yet widely used in clinical practice. Technological advancement in infrared imaging increases its application range. The aim was to explore the first steps in the applicability of high-resolution infrared thermal imaging for noninvasive automated detection of signs of diabetic foot disease. Methods The plantar foot surfaces of 15 diabetes patients were imaged with an infrared camera (resolution, 1.2 mm/pixel): 5 patients had no visible signs of foot complications, 5 patients had local complications (e.g., abundant callus or neuropathic ulcer), and 5 patients had difuse complications (e.g., Charcot foot, infected ulcer, or critical ischemia). Foot temperature was calculated as mean temperature across pixels for the whole foot and for specified regions of interest (ROIs). Results No diferences in mean temperature >1.5 °C between the ipsilateral and the contralateral foot were found in patients without complications. In patients with local complications, mean temperatures of the ipsilateral and the contralateral foot were similar, but temperature at the ROI was >2 °C higher compared with the corresponding region in the contralateral foot and to the mean of the whole ipsilateral foot. In patients with difuse complications, mean temperature diferences of >3 °C between ipsilateral and contralateral foot were found. Conclusions With an algorithm based on parameters that can be captured and analyzed with a high-resolution infrared camera and a computer, it is possible to detect signs of diabetic foot disease and to discriminate between no, local, or difuse diabetic foot complications. As such, an intelligent telemedicine monitoring system for noninvasive automated detection of signs of diabetic foot disease is one step closer. Future studies are essential to confirm and extend these promising early findings.

Diagnostic values for skin temperature assessment to detect diabetes-related foot complications

Background Skin temperature assessment is a promising modality for early detection of diabetic foot problems, but its diagnostic value has not been studied. Our aims were to investigate the diagnostic value of different cutoff skin temperature values for detecting diabetes-related foot complications such as ulceration, infection, and Charcot foot and to determine urgency of treatment in case of diagnosed infection or a red-hot swollen foot. Materials and Methods The plantar foot surfaces of 54 patients with diabetes visiting the outpatient foot clinic were imaged with an infrared camera. Nine patients had complications requiring immediate treatment, 25 patients had complications requiring non-immediate treatment, and 20 patients had no complications requiring treatment. Average pixel temperature was calculated for six predefined spots and for the whole foot. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for different cutoff skin temperature values using clinical assessment as reference and defined the sensitivity and specificity for the most optimal cutoff temperature value. Mean temperature difference between feet was analyzed using the Kruskal–Wallis tests. Results The most optimal cutoff skin temperature value for detection of diabetes-related foot complications was a 2.2°C difference between contralateral spots (sensitivity, 76%; specificity, 40%). The most optimal cutoff skin temperature value for determining urgency of treatment was a 1.35°C difference between the mean temperature of the left and right foot (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 78%). Conclusions Detection of diabetes-related foot complications based on local skin temperature assessment is hindered by low diagnostic values. Mean temperature difference between two feet may be an adequate marker for determining urgency of treatment.

Automatic detection of diabetic foot complications with infrared thermography by asymmetric analysis

Early identification of diabetic foot complications and their precursors is essential in preventing their devastating consequences, such as foot infection and amputation. Frequent, automatic risk assessment by an intelligent telemedicine system might be feasible and cost effective. Infrared thermography is a promising modality for such a system. The temperature differences between corresponding areas on contralateral feet are the clinically significant parameters. This asymmetric analysis is hindered by (1) foot segmentation errors, especially when the foot temperature and the ambient temperature are comparable, and by (2) different shapes and sizes between contralateral feet due to deformities or minor amputations. To circumvent the first problem, we used a color image and a thermal image acquired synchronously. Foot regions, detected in the color image, were rigidly registered to the thermal image. This resulted in 97.8% ± 1.1% sensitivity and 98.4% ± 0.5% specificity over 76 high-risk diabetic patients with manual annotation as a reference. Nonrigid landmark-based registration with Bsplines solved the second problem. Corresponding points in the two feet could be found regardless of the shapes and sizes of the feet. With that, the temperature difference of the left and right feet could be obtained.

Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control

Incursions of plant pests and diseases pose serious threats to food security, agricultural productivity and the natural environment. One of the challenges in confidently delimiting and eradicating incursions is how to choose from an arsenal of surveillance and quarantine approaches in order to best control multiple dispersal pathways. Anthropogenic spread (propagules carried on humans or transported on produce or equipment) can be controlled with quarantine measures, which in turn can vary in intensity. In contrast, environmental spread processes are more difficult to control, but often have a temporal signal (e.g. seasonality) which can introduce both challenges and opportunities for surveillance and control. This leads to complex decisions regarding when, where and how to search. Recent modelling investigations of surveillance performance have optimised the output of simulation models, and found that a risk-weighted randomised search can perform close to optimally. However, exactly how quarantine and surveillance strategies should change to reflect different dispersal modes remains largely unaddressed. Here we develop a spatial simulation model of a plant fungal-pathogen incursion into an agricultural region, and its subsequent surveillance and control. We include structural differences in dispersal via the interplay of biological, environmental and anthropogenic connectivity between host sites (farms). Our objective was to gain broad insights into the relative roles played by different spread modes in propagating an invasion, and how incorporating knowledge of these spread risks may improve approaches to quarantine restrictions and surveillance. We find that broad heuristic rules for quarantine restrictions fail to contain the pathogen due to residual connectivity between sites, but surveillance measures enable early detection and successfully lead to suppression of the pathogen in all farms. Alternative surveillance strategies attain similar levels of performance by incorporating environmental or anthropogenic dispersal risk in the prioritisation of sites. Our model provides the basis to develop essential insights into the effectiveness of different surveillance and quarantine decisions for fungal pathogen control. Parameterised for authentic settings it will aid our understanding of how the extent and resolution of interventions should suitably reflect the spatial structure of dispersal processes.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

vSpeak: Edge detection based feature extraction for sign to text conversion

This paper presents 'vSpeak', the first initiative taken in Pakistan for ICT enabled conversion of dynamic Sign Urdu gestures into natural language sentences. To realize this, vSpeak has adopted a novel approach for feature extraction using edge detection and image compression which gives input to the Artificial Neural Network that recognizes the gesture. This technique caters for the blurred images as well. The training and testing is currently being performed on a dataset of 200 patterns of 20 words from Sign Urdu with target accuracy of 90% and above.