Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Spreadsheet Conditional Formatting Illuminates Investigations into Modular Arithmetic

Modular arithmetic has often been regarded as something of a mathematical curiosity, at least by those unfamiliar with its importance to both abstract algebra and number theory, and with its numerous applications. However, with the ubiquity of fast digital computers, and the need for reliable digital security systems such as RSA, this important branch of mathematics is now considered essential knowledge for many professionals. Indeed, computer arithmetic itself is, ipso facto, modular. This chapter describes how the modern graphical spreadsheet may be used to clearly illustrate the basics of modular arithmetic, and to solve certain classes of problems. Students may then gain structural insight and the foundations laid for applications to such areas as hashing, random number generation, and public-key cryptography.

The influence of maternal infant feeding practices and beliefs on the expression of food neophobia in toddlers

Food neophobia is a highly heritable trait characterized by the rejection of foods that are novel or unknown and potentially limits dietary variety, with lower intake and preference particularly for fruits and vegetables. Understanding non-genetic (environmental) factors that may influence the expression of food neophobia is essential to improving children’s consumption of fruits and vegetables and encouraging the adoption of healthier diets. The aim of this study was to examine whether maternal infant feeding beliefs (at four months) were associated with the expression of food neophobia in toddlers and whether controlling feeding practices mediated this relationship. Participants were 244 first-time mothers (M = 30.4, SD = 5.1 years) allocated to the control group of the NOURISH randomized controlled trial. The relationships between infant feeding beliefs (Infant Feeding Questionnaire) at four months and controlling child feeding practices (Child Feeding Questionnaire) and food neophobia (Child Food Neophobia Scale) at 24 months were tested using correlational and multiple linear regression models (adjusted for significant covariates). Higher maternal Concern about infant under-eating and becoming underweight at four months was associated with higher child food neophobia at two years. Similarly, lower Awareness of infant hunger and satiety cues was associated with higher child food neophobia. Both associations were significantly mediated by mothers’ use of Pressure to eat. Intervening early to promote positive feeding practices to mothers may help reduce the use of controlling practices as children develop. Further research that can further elucidate the bi-directional nature of the mother-child feeding relationship is still required.

Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Feeling a little Blue? : Boofheads, bodies, and beaches

Pat Grant’s graphic novel Blue (2012) tells two stories about the impact of a newly migrant group on a small coastal Australian town. The wider story explores the wholesale effects of a previously unknown population joining an existing, culturally homogenous community. These broad social images are used to contextualise the more immediate story of three youths who are disenfranchised within the pre-existing community, but who can claim social enfranchisement by alienating the new members of the community. That the migrant population is depicted literally as aliens emphasises Blue’s participation in a wider conversation about citizenship and empathy. However, Blue does not necessarily seek to provoke a particular emotional response in its readers. Rather, in following three characters who lack what Nussbaum calls “narrative imagination” in their pursuit of good surfing or visceral entertainment—of beaches or bodies—Blue explores the means and consequences of refusing intersubjective affect. This is most powerfully rendered by the main characters’ ultimate avoidance of, and fictions about, a dead body they have wagged school to see. At the very moment of a person becoming a true object—a corpse—the meaning of objectifying people is revealed; the young protagonists seem to recognise this fact, and thus retreat from the affective scene which nonetheless informs Blue as a whole.

Emotional climate and high quality learning experiences in science teacher education

The role of emotion during learning encounters in science teacher education is under-researched and under-theorized. In this case study we explore the emotional climates, that is, the collective states of emotional arousal, of a preservice secondary science education class to illuminate practice for producing and reproducing high quality learning experiences for preservice science teachers. Theories related to the sociology of emotions informed our analyses from data sources such as preservice teachers’ perceptions of the emotional climate of their class, emotional facial expressions, classroom conversations, and cogenerative dialogue. The major outcome from our analyses was that even though preservice teachers reported high positive emotional climate during the professor’s science demonstrations, they also valued the professor’s in the moment reflections on her teaching that were associated with low emotional climate ratings. We co-relate emotional climate data and preservice teachers’ comments during cogenerative dialogue to expand our understanding of high quality experiences and emotional climate in science teacher education. Our study also contributes refinements to research perspectives on emotional climate.

Corner and finger formation in Hele-Shaw flow with kinetic undercooling regularisation

We examine the effect of a kinetic undercooling condition on the evolution of a free boundary in Hele--Shaw flow, in both bubble and channel geometries. We present analytical and numerical evidence that the bubble boundary is unstable and may develop one or more corners in finite time, for both expansion and contraction cases. This loss of regularity is interesting because it occurs regardless of whether the less viscous fluid is displacing the more viscous fluid, or vice versa. We show that small contracting bubbles are described to leading order by a well-studied geometric flow rule. Exact solutions to this asymptotic problem continue past the corner formation until the bubble contracts to a point as a slit in the limit. Lastly, we consider the evolving boundary with kinetic undercooling in a Saffman--Taylor channel geometry. The boundary may either form corners in finite time, or evolve to a single long finger travelling at constant speed, depending on the strength of kinetic undercooling. We demonstrate these two different behaviours numerically. For the travelling finger, we present results of a numerical solution method similar to that used to demonstrate the selection of discrete fingers by surface tension. With kinetic undercooling, a continuum of corner-free travelling fingers exists for any finger width above a critical value, which goes to zero as the kinetic undercooling vanishes. We have not been able to compute the discrete family of analytic solutions, predicted by previous asymptotic analysis, because the numerical scheme cannot distinguish between solutions characterised by analytic fingers and those which are corner-free but non-analytic.

The geographical co-distribution and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland, Australia

This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns, geographic co-distribution, and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea in Queensland. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the impacts of socio-ecological factors on both childhood pneumonia and diarrhea at a postal area level. A distinct seasonality of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea was found. Childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mainly distributed in northwest of Queensland. Mount Isa was the high-risk cluster where childhood pneumonia and diarrhea co-distributed. Emergency department visits (EDVs) for pneumonia increased by 3% per 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall, in wet seasons. In comparison, a 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall may increase 4% of EDVs for diarrhea. Monthly average temperature was negatively associated with EDVs for childhood diarrhea, in wet seasons. Low socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) was associated with high EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Future pneumonia and diarrhea prevention and control measures in Queensland should focus more on Mount Isa.

Determination of strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes using atomic force microscopy and inverse finite element analysis

The aim of this paper is to determine the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes, in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of these single cells at four different strain-rates. These results were then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using Modified Standard neo-Hookean Solid (MSnHS) idealization of these cells to determine their mechanical properties. In addition, a FEA model with a newly developed spring element was employed to accurately simulate AFM evaluation in this study. We report that both cytoskeleton (CSK) and intracellular fluid govern the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of living cells whereas intracellular fluid plays a predominant role on fixed cells’ behavior. In addition, through the comparisons, it can be concluded that osteocytes are stiffer than chondrocytes at all strain-rates tested indicating that the cells could be the biomarker of their tissue origin. Finally, we report that MSnHS is able to capture the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of osteocyte and chondrocyte for both living and fixed cells. Therefore, we concluded that the MSnHS is a good model for exploration of mechanical deformation responses of single osteocytes and chondrocytes. This study could open a new avenue for analysis of mechanical behavior of osteocytes and chondrocytes as well as other similar types of cells.

Cutting the Gordian knot of futility : a case for law reform on unilateral withholding and withdrawal of potentially life-sustaining treatment

In this paper, we propose law reform with respect to the unilateral withholding or withdrawal of potentially life-sustaining treatment in Australia and New Zealand. That is, where a doctor withholds or withdraws potentially life-sustaining treatment without consent from a patient or a patient’s substitute decision-maker (where the patient lacks capacity), or authorisation from a court or tribunal, or by operation of a statute or justifiable government or institutional policy. Our proposal is grounded in the core values that do (or should) underpin a regulatory framework on an issue such as this; these values are drawn from existing commitments made by Australia and New Zealand through legislation, the common law, and conventions and treaties. It is also grounded in a critical review of the law on unilateral withholding and withdrawal as well as the legal context within which this issue sits in Australasia. We argue that the current law is inconsistent with the core values and develop a proposal for a legal response to this issue that more closely aligns with the core values it is supposed to serve.

Family Mobility : Reconciling Career Opportunities and Educational Strategy

Family mobility decisions reveal much about how the public and private realms of social life interact and change. This sociological study explores how contemporary families reconcile individual members’ career and education projects within the family unit over time and space, and unpacks the intersubjective constraints on workforce mobility. This Australian mixed methods study sampled Defence Force families and middle class professional families to illustrate how families’ educational projects are necessarily and deeply implicated in issues of workforce mobility and immobility, in complex ways. Defence families move frequently, often absorbing the stresses of moving through ‘viscous’ institutions as private troubles. In contrast, the selective mobility of middle class professional families and their ‘no go zones’ contribute to the public issue of poorly serviced rural communities. Families with different social, material and vocational resources at their disposal are shown to reflexively weigh the benefits and risks associated with moving differently. The book also explore how priorities shift as children move through educational phases. The families’ narratives offer empirical windows on larger social processes, such as the mobility imperative, the gender imbalance in the family’s intersubjective bargains, labour market credentialism, the social construction of place, and the family’s role in the reproduction of class structure.

Studying refugee settlement through longitudinal research : methodological and ethical insights from the Good Starts study

Research involving resettled refugees raises methodological and ethical complexities. These complexities typically emerge within cross-sectional research that focuses on refugee experiences at a specific point in time. Given the long term and dynamic nature of refugee settlement, longitudinal research is valuable, yet it raises distinct complexities within the research process. This article focuses on the methodological and ethical insights that emerged in a longitudinal study of settlement and wellbeing with a cohort of young people from refugee backgrounds in Australia. It considers: engagement and retention of a cohort over time; the need to adapt research tools to changing settlement contexts and life stages; participants’ experiences of long-term involvement in the study; and the challenge of timely translation of findings into evidence for policy and practice. The article contributes to a growing understanding of the practical, ethical and epistemological challenges and opportunities presented by longitudinal research, in this case, with resettled refugee background youth.

Vulnerability : an issue for law and policy in pandemic planning?

The 2009 H!Nl 'swine flu' pandemic was the first influenza pandemic of the twenty-first centmy. Unlike the first influenza pandemic of the twentieth century, the so-called 'Spanish flu' which killed millions of people worldwide, the 2009 pandemic was relatively mild. While the mildness of the 2009 pandemic meant that the 'Yorld was spared from the impact of a high-mortality event that would cause widespread social and economic disruption, the 2009 pandemic did provide an opportunity to road-test pandemic readiness. In other work we have assessed Australia's pandemic plans and emergency management legislation, finding that both provide flexible and adaptive forms of regulation that are capable of adapting to the scale and severity of a pandemic or other public health emergency. 1 In this chapter we consider whether pandemic planning adequately addresses the needs of vulnerable individuals and groups, both within countries and between them. Central to this is the question of whether vulnerability is itself a useful concept for both law and policy, and if so, the implications of expressly incorporating the concept of vulnerability into pandemic planning.