Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance : results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs : round 5 (2013)

WHO estimates that half the world’s population is at risk of malaria. In 2012, there were an estimated 207 million cases (with an uncertainty range of 135 million to 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000). Approximately 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 77% occur in children under 5 years. Malaria remains endemic in 104 countries, and, while parasite-based diagnosis is increasing, most suspected cases of malaria are still not properly confirmed, resulting in over-use of antimalarial drugs and poor disease monitoring (1)...

Ultrathin hematite films deposited layer-by-layer on TiO2 underlayer for efficient water splitting under visible light

Ultrathin hematite (α-Fe2O3) film deposited on a TiO2 underlayer as a photoanode for photoelectrochemical water splitting was described. The TiO2 underlayer was coated on conductive fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass by spin coating. The hematite films were formed layer-by-layer by repeating the separated two-phase hydrolysis-solvothermal reaction of iron(III) acetylacetonate and aqueous ammonia. A photocurrent density of 0.683 mA cm−2 at +1.5 V vs. RHE (reversible hydrogen electrode) was obtained under visible light (>420 nm, 100 mW cm−2) illumination. The TiO2 underlayer plays an important role in the formation of hematite film, acting as an intermediary to alleviate the dead layer effect and as a support of large surface areas to coat greater amounts of Fe2O3. The as-prepared photoanodes are notably stable and highly efficient for photoelectrochemical water splitting under visible light. This study provides a facile synthesis process for the controlled production of highly active ultrathin hematite film and a simple route for photocurrent enhancement using several photoanodes in tandem.

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.

Performance of new-generation portable water-filled road safety barriers under vehicular impact

Portable water-filled barriers (PWFB) are roadside structures used to enhance safety at roadside work-zones. Ideally, a PWFB system is expected to protect persons and objects behind it and redirect the errant vehicle. The performance criteria of a road safety barrier system are (i) redirection of the vehicle after impact and (ii) lateral deflection within allowable limits. Since its inception, the PWFB has received criticism due to its underperformance compared to the heavier portable concrete barrier. A new generation composite high energy absorbing road safety barrier was recently developed by the authors.

Experimental studies on web crippling behaviour of hollow flange channel beams under two flange load cases

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel beam (LSB) subject to web crippling under End Two Flange (ETF) and Interior Two Flange (ITF) load cases. The LSB sections with two rectangular hollow flanges are made using a simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. Due to the geometry of the LSB, and its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending, predominant shear and combined actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted on the web crippling behaviour and strength of LSB sections. Hence an experimental study was conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and capacities of LSBs. Twenty-eight web crippling tests were conducted under ETF and ITF load cases, and the ultimate web crippling capacities were compared with the predictions from the design equations in AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100. This comparison showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 web crippling design equations are unconservative for LSB sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LSBs based on experimental results. Suitable design rules were also developed under the direct strength method (DSM) format.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Surface plasmon-enhanced zeolite catalysis under light irradiation and its correlation with molecular polarity of reactants

Enhanced catalytic performance of zeoltes via the plasmonic effect of gold nanoparticles has been discovered to be closely correlated with the molecular polarity of reactants. The intensified polarised electrostatic field of Na+ in NaY plays a critical role in stretching the C=O bond of aldehydes to improve the reaction rate.

Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Kumarina and bidders voting in transfer schemes

Transfer schemes are an alternative means of acquiring control of a company to making a takeover bid under the provisions in Ch 6 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The recent decision Re Kumarina Resources Ltd [2013] FCA 549 overturned long-standing practice in relation to a certain type of transfer scheme. If followed, the decision would allow a “bidder” to vote at scheme meetings where the scheme consideration for the acquisition of the target shares are shares in another company, and the scheme results in a merger. But the bidder is not allowed to vote where the scheme consideration is cash. The article points out the difficulties arising from this decision and argues that it should not be followed. In providing a “no objection” statement, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has created uncertainty as to the approach it will take towards the bidders being allowed to vote at scheme meetings where the scheme consideration for the acquisition of target shares are shares in another company. The article also points out that in providing the no objection statement in Kumarina, ASIC appears to have ignored breaches of s 606(1) of the Corporations Act. There is a pressing need for ASIC to clarify its position and, in particular, whether or not it will provide a no objection statement in respect of future transfer schemes where a bidder (or its parent company) votes at the scheme meeting.

A constitutive model for mechanical response characterization of pumpkin peel and flesh tissues under tensile and compressive loadings

Enhancing quality of food products and reducing volume of waste during mechanical operations of food industry requires a comprehensive knowledge of material response under loadings. While research has focused on mechanical response of food material, the volume of waste after harvesting and during processing stages is still considerably high in both developing and developed countries. This research aims to develop and evaluate a constitutive model of mechanical response of tough skinned vegetables under postharvest and processing operations. The model focuses on both tensile and compressive properties of pumpkin flesh and peel tissues where the behaviours of these tissues vary depending on various factors such as rheological response and cellular structure. Both elastic and plastic response of tissue were considered in the modelling process and finite elasticity combined with pseudo elasticity theory was applied to generate the model. The outcomes were then validated using the published results of experimental work on pumpkin flesh and peel under uniaxial tensile and compression. The constitutive coefficients for peel under tensile test was α = 25.66 and β = −18.48 Mpa and for flesh α = −5.29 and β = 5.27 Mpa. under compression the constitutive coefficients were α = 4.74 and β = −1.71 Mpa for peel and α = 0.76 and β = −1.86 Mpa for flesh samples. Constitutive curves predicted the values of force precisely and close to the experimental values. The curves were fit for whole stress versus strain curve as well as a section of curve up to bio yield point. The modelling outputs had presented good agreement with the empirical values and the constructive curves exhibited a very similar pattern to the experimental curves. The presented constitutive model can be applied next to other agricultural materials under loading in future.

Numerical studies on CFRP strengthened steel columns under transverse impact

Strengthening of metallic structures using carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) has become a smart strengthening option over the conventional strengthening method. Transverse impact loading due to accidental vehicular collision can lead to the failure of existing steel hollow tubular columns. However, knowledge is very limited on the behaviour of CFRP strengthened steel members under dynamic impact loading condition. This paper deals with the numerical simulation of CFRP strengthened square hollow section (SHS) steel columns under transverse impact loading to predict the behaviour and failure modes. The transverse impact loading is simulated using finite element (FE) analysis based on numerical approach. The accuracy of the FE modelling is ensured by comparing the predicted results with available experimental tests. The effects of impact velocity, impact mass, support condition, axial loading and CFRP thickness are examined through detail parametric study. The impact simulation results indicate that the strengthening technique shows an improved impact resistance capacity by reducing lateral displacement of the strengthened column about 58% compared to the bare steel column. Axial loading plays an important role on the failure behaviour of tubular column.