Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction : evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

Cutaneous markers of photo-damage and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin : a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic research has demonstrated that cutaneous markers of photo-damage are associated with risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). However there has been no previous attempt to calculate pooled risk estimates. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis after extracting relevant studies published up to January 2013 from five electronic databases. Eligible studies were those that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and actinic keratoses, solar elastosis, solar lentigines, or telangiectasia. RESULTS: Seven eligible studies were identified and summary odds ratios (OR) were calculated using both random and quality effects models. Having more than ten actinic keratoses was most strongly associated with BCC, conferring up to a 5-fold increase in risk (OR: 4.97; 95% CI: 3.26, 7.58). Other factors, including solar elastosis, solar lentigines, and telangiectasia had weaker but positive associations with BCC with ORs around 1.5. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of chronic photo-damage are positively associated with BCC. The presence of actinic keratoses was the most strongly associated with BCC of the markers examined. IMPACT: This work highlights the relatively modest association between markers of chronic ultraviolet exposure and BCC.

Natural disaster risk-informed for a better public infrastructure asset planning in Indonesian Central Government

The natural disasters incident that frequently hit Indonesia are floods, severe droughts, tsunamis, earth-quakes, volcano, eruptions, landslides, windstorm and forest fires. The impact of those natural disasters are significantly severe and affecting the quality of life of the community due to the breakdown of the public as-sets as one source to deliver public services. This paper is aimed to emphasis the importance of natural disaster risk-informed in relation to public asset management in Indonesian Central Government, particularly in asset planning stage where asset decision is made as the gate into the whole public asset management processes. A Case study in the Ministry of Finance Indonesia as the central government public asset manager and in 5 (five) line ministries/governmental agencies as public asset users was used as the approach to achieved the research objective. The case study devoured three data collection techniques i.e. interviews, observations and document archival which will be analysed by a content analysis approach. The result of the study indicates that Indonesian geographical position exposing many of public infra-structure assets as a high vulnerability to natural disasters. Information on natural-disaster trends and predictions to identify and measure the risks are available, however, such information are not utilise and integrated to the process of public infrastructure asset planning as the gate to the whole public asset management processes. Therefore, in order to accommodate and incorporate this natural disaster risk-information into public asset management processes, particularly in public asset planning, a public asset performance measurements framework should be adopted and applied in the process as one sources in making decision for infrastructure asset planning. Findings from this study provide useful input for the Ministry of Finance as public asset manager, scholars and private asset management practitioners in Indonesia to establish natural disaster risks awareness in public infrastructure asset management processes.

Risk factors for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory : a matched case-control study

Background: Side effects of the medications used for procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory are known to cause impaired respiratory function. Impaired respiratory function poses considerable risk to patient safety as it can lead to inadequate oxygenation. Having knowledge about the conditions that predict impaired respiratory function prior to the procedure would enable nurses to identify at-risk patients and selectively implement intensive respiratory monitoring. This would reduce the possibility of inadequate oxygenation occurring. Aim: To identify pre-procedure risk factors for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Design: Retrospective matched case–control. Methods: 21 cases of impaired respiratory function were identified and matched to 113 controls from a consecutive cohort of patients over 18 years of age. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for impaired respiratory function. Results: With each additional indicator of acute illness, case patients were nearly two times more likely than their controls to experience impaired respiratory function (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.19–2.67; p = 0.005). Indicators of acute illness included emergency admission, being transferred from a critical care unit for the procedure or requiring respiratory or haemodynamic support in the lead up to the procedure. Conclusion: Several factors that predict the likelihood of impaired respiratory function were identified. The results from this study could be used to inform prospective studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

Acute illness is a risk factor for impaired respiratory function during nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterization laboratory

Impaired respiratory function (IRF) during procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA) poses considerable risk to patient safety as it can lead to inadequate oxygenation and ventilation. Risk factors that can be screened prior to the procedure have not been identified for the cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL).

Screening in early childhood for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.

Validating a screening tool for mental health and substance use risk in an Indigenous prison population

Introduction and Aims: The Indigenous Risk Impact Screen (IRIS) is a validated culturally appropriate and widely used tool in the community for assessing substance use and mental disorder. This research aimed to assess the utility of this tool in an Indigenous prison population. Design and Methods: The study used data collected from a cross-sectional study of mental health among indigenous inmates in Queensland custodial centres (n=395, 84% male). Participants were administered a modified version of the IRIS, and ICD-10 diagnoses of substance use, depressive and anxiety disorders obtained using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The concurrent validity of the modified IRIS was assessed against those of the CIDI. Results: 312 people screened as high risk for a substance use disorder and 179 were high risk for mental problems. 73% of males and 88% of females were diagnosed with a mental disorder. The IRIS was an effective screener for substance use disorders, with high sensitivity (Se) of 94% and low specificity (Sp) of 33%. The screener was less effective in identifying depression (Se 82%, Sp 59%) and anxiety (Se 68%, Sp 60%). Discussion: The IRIS is the first culturally appropriate screening instrument to be validated for the risk of drug and alcohol and mental disorder among Indigenous adults in custody. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the IRIS is a valid tool for screening of alcohol and drug use risk among an incarcerated Indigenous population. The IRIS could offer an opportunity to improve the identification, treatment and health outcomes for incarcerated Indigenous adults.

PCV13 Perceptions of health during pregnancy increase the risk of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective association between perception of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factor of mothers 21 years after the index pregnancy. METHODS: Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community- based prospective birth ohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1983. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the indexpregnancyascomparedtowomenwith a straight forward pregnancy. Apart from that, women who had complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during the pregnancy were also at30%increased odds (adjustedOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) of having hypertension 21 years later. CONCLUSIONS: As a whole, our study suggests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward pregnancy are likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21 years after the pregnancy.

Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes : a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.

Letter : anxiety score as a risk factor for radial artery vasospasm during radial interventions : a pilot study

I read with interest the article in Angiology that determined the role of anxiety level on radial artery spasm during transradial coronary angiography.1 As the importance of conducting more randomised controlled trials using anxiolytics to define the relation between anxiety and vasospasm was noted by the authors, I offer the following insights for investigators to consider when conducting such research. While previous research has already identified that moderate procedural sedation and opioid analgesia reduces the incidence of vasospasm,2 the identification of risk factors in the present study is hypothesis generating as to how outcomes might be even further improved. It is possible that selectively applying either even more intensive sedation and analgesia or complementary non-pharmacological stress-reducing therapies, such as music therapy or visualisation and attentive behaviour, to patients ‘at-risk’ of vasospasm (women and those with high levels of anxiety prior to the procedure) might lead to even better patient outcomes...

Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives To examine the effect of extreme temperatures on emergency department admissions (EDAs) for childhood asthma. Methods An ecological design was used in this study. A Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the effect of temperature on EDAs for asthma among children aged 0–14 years in Brisbane, Australia, during January 2003–December 2009, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 13 324 EDAs for childhood asthma during the study period. Both hot and cold temperatures were associated with increases in EDAs for childhood asthma, and their effects both appeared to be acute. An added effect of heat waves on EDAs for childhood asthma was observed, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Male children and children aged 0–4 years were most vulnerable to heat effects, while children aged 10–14 years were most vulnerable to cold effects. Conclusions Both hot and cold temperatures seemed to affect EDAs for childhood asthma. As climate change continues, children aged 0–4 years are at particular risk for asthma.

A data mining driven crash risk profiling method for road asset management

This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.

A multi-objective optimization approach for coordinating available transfer capability with risk control

In the electricity market environment, coordination of system reliability and economics of a power system is of great significance in determining the available transfer capability (ATC). In addition, the risks associated with uncertainties should be properly addressed in the ATC determination process for risk-benefit maximization. Against this background, it is necessary that the ATC be optimally allocated and utilized within relative security constraints. First of all, the non-sequential Monte Carlo stimulation is employed to derive the probability density distribution of ATC of designated areas incorporating uncertainty factors. Second, on the basis of that, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated to determine the multi-area ATC so as to maximize the risk-benefits. Then, the solution to the developed model is achieved by the fast non-dominated sorting (NSGA-II) algorithm, which could decrease the risk caused by uncertainties while coordinating the ATCs of different areas. Finally, the IEEE 118-bus test system is served for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and employed algorithm.