Aspects of Keno modelling

In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.

In conversation with the Honourable Ian Callinan AC

When, in 1977, the Australian electorate provided a double majority to effect a change of section 72 of the Commonwealth Constitution requiring judges of the High Court of Australia to retire at the age of 70 years old, I doubt we understood the continuing capacity of these esteemed members of the judiciary. For the opportunity to sit and talk with Ian Callinan AC who, in compliance with that amendment, retired from the High Court in September 2007, I needed to wait until he returned from The Hague where he was sitting as a Judge ad hoc on the International Court of Justice. Although a native of Casino, New South Wales, Mr Callinan is regarded as a Queenslander. Indeed, he grew up in Brisbane, finished high school at Brisbane Grammar and graduated in law at The University of Queensland. Appointed in 1978 as a Queen’s Counsel, Mr Callinan enjoyed this period of his legal career and we discussed an aspect of the Christopher Skase case, which reinforced my belief that Mr Callinan is an incredibly skilful advocate. On 14 September 1998, ABC Four Corners broadcasted the views of some prominent Australians on the appointment of Mr Callinan to the High Court. In assessing the type of person Mr Callinan is, Tony Morris QC said: “Ian Callinan isn't a coward”, while former Commonwealth Attorney-General, Michael Lavarch, said: “He was regarded as an absolutely outstanding criminal lawyer within the Queensland legal profession, I mean really a top-notch advocate”. I was not interested in raising any of the controversial issues that Mr Callinan has encountered as an advocate in high profile matters. I wanted to know how he felt about his time on the High Court, what his thoughts are on the operation of the High Court, the IP cases he decided, the real life issues that he feels impact on counsel who are appearing before the High Court and the people he regarded as role models. During our conversation, Mr Callinan laughed often and when he did his eyes lit up, revealing his passion for life. He is an incredibly genuine Australian who loved his time as a barrister, enjoyed his role on the High Court, enjoys his current job as mediator, loves writing novels, has a great desire for continual improvement in the quality of legal education and legal advocacy and sees a need for change in IP law. When I asked: “So, what might the future hold for you?”, he laughed and said: “Well, at my age I don’t have a long horizon time”. I said: “Just enjoy the journey?”, to which Mr Callinan responded: “Exactly”.

The subset sum problem in Keno modelling

Aspects of Keno modelling throughout the Australian states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are discussed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player are presented in each case.

Audit fees and asset securitization risks

The thesis investigates “where were the auditors in asset securitizations”, a criticism of the audit profession before and after the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Asset securitizations increase audit complexity and audit risks, which are expected to increase audit fees. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2009, this study examines the association between asset securitization risks and audit fees, and its changes during the global financial crisis. The main test is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which is adapted from the Fields et al. (2004) bank audit fee model. I employ a principal components analysis to address high correlations among asset securitization risks. Individual securitization risks are also separately tested. A suite of sensitivity tests indicate the results are robust. These include model alterations, sample variations, further controls in the tests, and correcting for the securitizer self-selection problem. A partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology is introduced as a separate test, which allows for high intercorrelations, self-selection correction, and sequential order hypotheses in one simultaneous model. The PLS results are consistent with the main results. The study finds significant and positive associations between securitization risks and audit fees. After the commencement of the global financial crisis in 2007, there was an increased focus on the role of audits on asset securitization risks resulting from bank failures; therefore I expect that auditors would become more sensitive to bank asset securitization risks after the commencement of the crisis. I find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks during the crisis and that auditors appear to charge a GFC premium for banks. Overall, the results support the view that auditors consider asset securitization risks and market changes, and adjust their audit effort and risk considerations accordingly.

Government procurement contracts and minimum labour standards enforcement: Rhetoric, duplication and distraction?

Government contracts for services typically include terms requiring contractors to comply with minimum labour standards laws. Procurement contract clauses specify reporting procedures and sanctions for non-compliance, implying that government contracting agencies will monitor and enforce minimum labour standards within contract performance management. In this article, the case of school cleaners employed under New South Wales government contracts between 2010 and 2011 is the vehicle for exploring the effectiveness of these protective clauses. We find that the inclusion of these protective clauses in procurement contracts is unnecessary in the Australian context, and any expectations that government contracting agencies will monitor and enforce labour standards are misleading. At best, the clauses are rhetoric, and at worst, they are a distraction for parties with enforcement powers.

Asset management policies and guidelines of different states in Australia : a comparative analysis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore and compare the asset management policies and practices of six Australian states – New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania – to improve understanding of the policy context to best shape policy focus and guidelines. Australian state-wide asset management policies and guidelines are an emergent policy domain, generating a substantial body of knowledge. However, these documents are spread across the layers of government and are therefore largely fragmented and lack coherency. Design/methodology/approach The comparative study is based on the thematic mapping technique using the Leximancer software. Findings Asset management policies and guidelines of New South Wales and Victoria have more interconnected themes as compared to other states in Australia. Moreover, based on the findings, New South Wales has covered most of the key concepts in relation to asset management; the remaining five states are yet to develop a comprehensive and integrated approach to asset management policies and guidelines. Research limitations/implications This review and its findings have provided a number of directions on which government policies can now be better constructed and assessed. In doing so, the paper contributes to a coherent way forward to satisfy national emergent and ongoing asset management challenges. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes. Originality/value This paper provides a basis for further research focused on analyzing the context and processes of asset management guidelines and policies.

The game of clones and the Australia tax : divergent views about copyright business models and the willingness of Australian consumers to infringe

It is often said that Australia is a world leader in rates of copyright infringement for entertainment goods. In 2012, the hit television show, Game of Thrones, was the most downloaded television show over bitorrent, and estimates suggest that Australians accounted for a plurality of nearly 10% of the 3-4 million downloads each week. The season finale of 2013 was downloaded over a million times within 24 hours of its release, and again Australians were the largest block of illicit downloaders over BitTorrent, despite our relatively small population. This trend has led the former US Ambassador to Australia to implore Australians to stop 'stealing' digital content, and rightsholders to push for increasing sanctions on copyright infringers. The Australian Government is looking to respond by requiring Internet Service Providers to issue warnings and potentially punish consumers who are alleged by industry groups to have infringed copyright. This is the logical next step in deterring infringement, given that the operators of infringing networks (like The Pirate Bay, for example) are out of regulatory reach. This steady ratcheting up of the strength of copyright, however, comes at a significant cost to user privacy and autonomy, and while the decentralisation of enforcement reduces costs, it also reduces the due process safeguards provided by the judicial process. This article presents qualitative evidence that substantiates a common intuition: one of the major reasons that Australians seek out illicit downloads of content like Game of Thrones in such numbers is that it is more difficult to access legitimately in Australia. The geographically segmented way in which copyright is exploited at an international level has given rise to a ‘tyranny of digital distance’, where Australians have less access to copyright goods than consumers in other countries. Compared to consumers in the US and the EU, Australians pay more for digital goods, have less choice in distribution channels, are exposed to substantial delays in access, and are sometimes denied access completely. In this article we focus our analysis on premium film and television offerings, like Game of Thrones, and through semi-structured interviews, explore how choices in distribution impact on the willingness of Australian consumers to seek out infringing copies of copyright material. Game of Thrones provides an excellent case study through which to frame this analysis: it is both one of the least legally accessible television offerings and one of the most downloaded through filesharing networks of recent times. Our analysis shows that at the same time as rightsholder groups, particularly in the film and television industries, are lobbying for stronger laws to counter illicit distribution, the business practices of their member organisations are counter-productively increasing incentives for consumers to infringe. The lack of accessibility and high prices of copyright goods in Australia leads to substantial economic waste. The unmet consumer demand means that Australian consumers are harmed by lower access to information and entertainment goods than consumers in other jurisdictions. The higher rates of infringement that fulfils some of this unmet demand increases enforcement costs for copyright owners and imposes burdens either on our judicial system or on private entities – like ISPs – who may be tasked with enforcing the rights of third parties. Most worryingly, the lack of convenient and cheap legitimate digital distribution channels risks undermining public support for copyright law. Our research shows that consumers blame rightsholders for failing to meet market demand, and this encourages a social norm that infringing copyright, while illegal, is not morally wrongful. The implications are as simple as they are profound: Australia should not take steps to increase the strength of copyright law at this time. The interests of the public and those of rightsholders align better when there is effective competition in distribution channels and consumers can legitimately get access to content. While foreign rightsholders are seeking enhanced protection for their interests, increasing enforcement is likely to increase their ability to engage in lucrative geographical price-discrimination, particularly for premium content. This is only likely to increase the degree to which Australian consumers feel that their interests are not being met and, consequently, to further undermine the legitimacy of copyright law. If consumers are to respect copyright law, increasing sanctions for infringement without enhancing access and competition in legitimate distribution channels could be dangerously counter-productive. We suggest that rightsholders’ best strategy for addressing infringement in Australia at this time is to ensure that Australians can access copyright goods in a timely, affordable, convenient, and fair lawful manner.

Doctors' knowledge of the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining medical treatment

Objectives To examine the level of knowledge of doctors about the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack decision-making capacity, and factors associated with a higher level of knowledge. Design, setting and participants Postal survey of all specialists in emergency medicine, geriatric medicine, intensive care, medical oncology, palliative medicine, renal medicine and respiratory medicine on the AMPCo Direct database in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Survey initially posted to participants on 18 July 2012 and closed on 31 January 2013. Main outcome measures Medical specialists’ levels of knowledge about the law, based on their responses to two survey questions. Results Overall response rate was 32%. For the seven statements contained in the two questions about the law, the mean knowledge score was 3.26 out of 7. State and specialty were the strongest predictors of legal knowledge. Conclusions Among doctors who practise in the end-of-life field, there are some significant knowledge gaps about the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack decision-making capacity. Significant consequences for both patients and doctors can flow from a failure to comply with the law. Steps should be taken to improve doctors’ legal knowledge in this area and to harmonise the law across Australia.

Performance Measurement in Perspective: An exploratory study of Australian foundations’ approaches to performance measurement

Performance measurement in Australian philanthropic foundations is a hot topic. Foundation staff and board members are concerned with striking the right balance between their need for information with which to assess the effectiveness of their grant-making programs, and the costs in both time and money for grantees. Influenced by normative pressures, the increasing size and professionalism of the Australian philanthropic sector, and trends from the U.S.A and the U.K, foundations are talking amongst themselves, seeking expert advice and training, consulting with grantees and trying different approaches. Many resources examine methods of data collection, measurement or analysis. Our study instead treads into less charted but important territory: the motivations and values that are shaping the debate about performance measurement. In a series of 40 interviews with foundations from Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, we asked whether they felt under pressure to measure performance and if so, why. We queried whether everyone in the foundation shared the same views on the purposes of performance measurement; and the ways in which the act of performance measurement changed their grant-making, their attitude to risk, their relationship with grantees and their collaborations with other funders. Unsurprisingly, a very diverse set of approaches to performance measurement were revealed.

Assessment of damages in wrongful birth cases

More than ten years has passed since the High Court of Australia confirmed the recoverability of damages for the cost of raising a child in the well know decision of Cattanach v Melchior . A recent decision of the Supreme Court of New South Wales was widely anticipated as potentially providing a comprehensive discussion of the principles relevant to the assessment of damages in wrongful birth cases.

A convolutional neural network for automatic analysis of aerial imagery

This paper introduces a new method to automate the detection of marine species in aerial imagery using a Machine Learning approach. Our proposed system has at its core, a convolutional neural network. We compare this trainable classifier to a handcrafted classifier based on color features, entropy and shape analysis. Experiments demonstrate that the convolutional neural network outperforms the handcrafted solution. We also introduce a negative training example-selection method for situations where the original training set consists of a collection of labeled images in which the objects of interest (positive examples) have been marked by a bounding box. We show that picking random rectangles from the background is not necessarily the best way to generate useful negative examples with respect to learning.

Degree of value alignment : a grounded theory of rural nurse resignations

INTRODUCTION: The shortage of nurses willing to work in rural Australian healthcare settings continues to worsen. Australian rural areas have a lower retention rate of nurses than metropolitan counterparts, with more remote communities experiencing an even higher turnover of nursing staff. When retention rates are lower, patient outcomes are known to be poorer. This article reports a study that sought to explore the reasons why registered nurses resign from rural hospitals in the state of New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Using grounded theory methods, this study explored the reasons why registered nurses resigned from New South Wales rural hospitals. Data were collected from 12 participants using semi-structured interviews; each participant was a registered nurse who had resigned from a rural hospital. Nurses who had resigned due to retirement, relocation or maternity leave were excluded. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and imported into NVivo software. The constant comparative method of data collection and analysis was followed until a core category emerged. RESULTS: Nurses resigned from rural hospitals when their personal value of how nursing should occur conflicted with the hospital's organisational values driving the practice of nursing. These conflicting values led to a change in the degree of value alignment between the nurse and hospital. The degree of value alignment occurred in three dynamic stages that nurses moved through prior to resigning. The first stage, sharing values, was a time when a nurse and a hospital shared similar values. The second stage was conceding values where, due to perceived changes in a hospital's values, a nurse felt that patient care became compromised and this led to a divergence of values. The final stage was resigning, a stage where a nurse 'gave up' as they felt that their professional integrity was severely compromised. The findings revealed that when a nurse and organisational values were not aligned, conflict was created for a nurse about how they could perform nursing that aligned with their internalised professional values and integrity. Resignation occurred when nurses were unable to realign their personal values to changed organisational values - the organisational values changed due to rural area health service restructures, centralisation of budgets and resources, cumbersome hierarchies and management structures that inhibited communication and decision making, out-dated and ineffective operating systems, insufficient and inexperienced staff, bullying, and a lack of connectedness and shared vision. CONCLUSIONS: To fully comprehend rural nurse resignations, this study identified three stages that nurses move through prior to resignation. Effective retention strategies for the nursing workforce should address contributors to a decrease in value alignment and work towards encouraging the coalescence of nurses' and hospitals' values. It is imperative that strategies enable nurses to provide high quality patient care and promote a sense of connectedness and a shared vision between nurse and hospital. Senior managers need to have clear ways to articulate and imbue organisational values and be explicit in how these values accommodate nurses' values. Ward-level nurse managers have a significant responsibility to ensure that a hospital's values (both explicit and implicit) are incorporated into ward culture.

Design, manufacturing and maintenance of sugar milling equipment : observations from the 2008 ISSCT Engineering Workshop

An International Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (ISSCT) Engineering Workshop was held in Piracicaba, Brazil from 30 June to 4 July 2008. The theme of the workshop was Design, manufacturing and maintenance of sugar mill equipment. The workshop consisted of a series of technical sessions and site visits. The Brazilian sugar industry is growing rapidly. The growth has occurred as the result of the sugar industry’s position as a key provider of renewable energy in the form of ethanol and, more recently, electricity. The increased focus on electricity is seeing investment in high pressure (100 bar) boilers, cane cleaning plants that allow an increased biomass supply from trash and digesters that produce biogas from dunder. It is clear that the Brazilian sugar industry has a well defined place in the country’s future. The ISSCT workshop provided a good opportunity to gain information from equipment suppliers and discuss new technology that may have application in Australia. The new technologies of interest included IMCO sintered carbide shredder hammer tips, Fives Cail MillMax mills, planetary mill gearboxes, Bosch Projects chainless diffusers, Fives Cail Zuka centrifugals and Vaperma Siftek membrane systems.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Impacts of introduced aquaculture species on markets for native marine aquaculture products : the case of edible oysters in Australia

Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.