457 resultados para BAYESIAN ANALYSIS


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Boards of directors are thought to provide access to a wealth of knowledge and resources for the companies they serve, and are considered important to corporate governance. Under the Resource Based View (RBV) of the firm (Wernerfelt, 1984) boards are viewed as a strategic resource available to firms. As a consequence there has been a significant research effort aimed at establishing a link between board attributes and company performance. In this thesis I explore and extend the study of interlocking directorships (Mizruchi, 1996; Scott 1991a) by examining the links between directors’ opportunity networks and firm performance. Specifically, I use resource dependence theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978) and social capital theory (Burt, 1980b; Coleman, 1988) as the basis for a new measure of a board’s opportunity network. I contend that both directors’ formal company ties and their social ties determine a director’s opportunity network through which they are able to access and mobilise resources for their firms. This approach is based on recent studies that suggest the measurement of interlocks at the director level, rather than at the firm level, may be a more reliable indicator of this phenomenon. This research uses publicly available data drawn from Australia’s top-105 listed companies and their directors in 1999. I employ Social Network Analysis (SNA) (Scott, 1991b) using the UCINET software to analyse the individual director’s formal and social networks. SNA is used to measure a the number of ties a director has to other directors in the top-105 company director network at both one and two degrees of separation, that is, direct ties and indirect (or ‘friend of a friend’) ties. These individual measures of director connectedness are aggregated to produce a board-level network metric for comparison with measures of a firm’s performance using multiple regression analysis. Performance is measured with accounting-based and market-based measures. Findings indicate that better-connected boards are associated with higher market-based company performance (measured by Tobin’s q). However, weaker and mostly unreliable associations were found for accounting-based performance measure ROA. Furthermore, formal (or corporate) network ties are a stronger predictor of market performance than total network ties (comprising social and corporate ties). Similarly, strong ties (connectedness at degree-1) are better predictors of performance than weak ties (connectedness at degree-2). My research makes four contributions to the literature on director interlocks. First, it extends a new way of measuring a board’s opportunity network based on the director rather than the company as the unit of interlock. Second, it establishes evidence of a relationship between market-based measures of firm performance and the connectedness of that firm’s board. Third, it establishes that director’s formal corporate ties matter more to market-based firm performance than their social ties. Fourth, it establishes that director’s strong direct ties are more important to market-based performance than weak ties. The thesis concludes with implications for research and practice, including a more speculative interpretation of these results. In particular, I raise the possibility of reverse causality – that is networked directors seek to join high-performing companies. Thus, the relationship may be a result of symbolic action by companies seeking to increase the legitimacy of their firms rather than a reflection of the social capital available to the companies. This is an important consideration worthy of future investigation.

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This project explored ways in which Adult and Community Education (ACE) could make a greater contribution to the human capital development outcome under the National Reform Agenda (NRA), and increase the number of skilled workers in Australia. Data on current vocational and non-vocational ACE programs was analysed. Strategies to improve ACE were collated for consideration by government authorities and ACE providers. There is much diversity in the perceived role and activities of ACE. Researchers have found it challenging to create a profile that depicts the whole sector, particularly in the absence of much reliable, valid and comparable data on ACE activities and outcomes. However, there is evidence indicative of ACE’s assistance in re-engaging with learning and training, and initiating pathways to further training or employment. The potential for ACE to make a bigger contribution to skilling Australia is recognised by governments across the nation (Senate Employment, Workplace Relations, Small Business and Education Committee, 1997). Yet policy changes to facilitate an increased role of ACE in the skilling process, and resourcing for ACE programs continue to receive less attention. This project explored three research questions: • What does the current profile of the ACE sector look like? • How is ACE contributing to reducing the skills deficit? • How can ACE enhance its contributions to reduce the skills deficit and achieve the human capital development outcome of the National Reform Agenda? The responsiveness

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This paper aims to present a preliminary benefit analysis for airborne GPS occultation technique for the Australian region. The simulation studies are based on current domestic commercial flights between major Australian airports. With the knowledge of GPS satellite ephemeris data, occultation events for for any particular flight can be determined. Preliminary analysis shows a high resolution occultation observations can be achieved with this approach, for instance, about 15 occultation events for a Perth-to-Sydney flight. The simulation result agrees to the results published by other researchers for a different region. Of course, occultation observation during off-peak hours might be affected due to the limited flight activities. --------- High resolution occultation observations obtainable from airborne GPS occultation system provides an opportunity to improve the current global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and ultimately improves the accuracy in weather forecasting. More intensive research efforts and experimental demonstrations are required in order to demonstrate the technical feasibility of the airborne GPS technology.

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Over recent decades there has been growing interest in the role of non-motorized modes in the overall transport system (especially walking and cycling for private purposes) and many government initiatives have been taken to encourage these active modes. However there has been relatively little research attention given to the paid form of non-motorized travel which can be called non-motorized public transport (NMPT). This involves cycle-powered vehicles which can carry several passengers (plus the driver) and a small amount of goods; and which provide flexible hail-and-ride services. Effectively they are non-motorized taxis. Common forms include cycle-rickshaw (Bangladesh, India), becak (Indonesia), cyclos (Vietnam, Cambodia), bicitaxi (Columbia, Cuba), velo-taxi (Germany, Netherland), and pedicabs (UK, Japan, USA). --------- The popularity of NMPT is widespread in developing countries, where it caters for a wide range of mobility needs. For instance in Dhaka, Bangladesh, rickshaws are the preferred mode for non-walk trips and have a higher mode share than cars or buses. Factors that underlie the continued existence and popularity of NMPT in many developing countries include positive contribution to social equity, micro-macro economic significance, employment creation, and suitability for narrow and crowded streets. Although top speeds are lower than motorized modes, NMPT is competitive and cost-effective for short distance door-to-door trips that make up the bulk of travel in many developing cities. In addition, NMPT is often the preferred mode for vulnerable groups such as females, children and elderly people. NMPT is more prominent in developing countries but its popularity and significance is also gradually increasing in several developed countries of Asia, Europe and parts of North America, where there is a trend for the NMPT usage pattern to broaden from tourism to public transport. This shift is due to a number of factors including the eco-sustainable nature of NMPT; its operating flexibility (such as in areas where motorized vehicle access is restricted or discouraged through pricing); and the dynamics that it adds to the urban fabric. Whereas NMPT may have been seen as a “dying” mode, in many cities it is maintaining or increasing its significance and with potential for further growth. --------- This paper will examine and analyze global trends in NMPT incorporating both developing and developed country contexts and issues such as usage patterns; NMPT policy and management practices; technological development; and operational integration of NMPT into the overall transport system. It will look at how NMPT policies, practices and usage have changed over time and the differing trends in developing and developed countries. In particular, it will use Dhaka, Bangladesh as a case study in recognition of its standing as the major NMPT city in the world. The aim is to highlight NMPT issues and trends and their significance for shaping future policy towards NMPT in developing and developed countries. The paper will be of interest to transport planners, traffic engineers, urban and regional planners, environmentalists, economists and policy makers.

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The billionaires of the world attract significant attention from the media and the public. The popular press is full of books selling formulas on how to become rich. Surprisingly, only a limited number of studies have explored empirically the determinants of extraordinary wealth. Using a large data set we explore whether globalization and corruption affect extreme wealth accumulation. We find evidence that an increase in globalization increases super-richness. In addition, we also find that an increase in corruption leads to an increase in the creation of super fortune. This supports the argument that in kleptocracies large sums are transferred into the hands of a small group of individuals.

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This paper seeks to identify what antecedents of power make it more or less likely for people to survive in a life-threatening situation.In particular, we look at the Titanic disaster as the life or death situation. Maritime disasters can be interpreted as quasi-natural experiments because every person is affected by the shock. True human nature becomes apparent in such a dangerous situation. Five antecedents of power are distinguished: physical strength, economic resources, nationality, social and moral factors. This empirical analysis supports the notion that power is a key determinant in extreme situations of life or death.

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There is a notable shortage of empirical research directed at measuring the magnitude and direction of stress effects on performance in a controlled environment. One reason for this is the inherent difficulties in identifying and isolating direct performance measures for individuals. Additionally most traditional work environments contain a multitude of exogenous factors impacting individual performance, but controlling for all such factors is generally unfeasible (omitted variable bias). Moreover, instead of asking individuals about their self-reported stress levels we observe workers' behavior in situations that can be classified as stressful. For this reason we have stepped outside the traditional workplace in an attempt to gain greater controllability of these factors using the sports environment as our experimental space. We empirically investigate the relationship between stress and performance, in an extreme pressure situation (football penalty kicks) in a winner take all sporting environment (FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Cup competitions). Specifically, we examine all the penalty shootouts between 1976 and 2008 covering in total 16 events. The results indicate that extreme stressors can have a positive or negative impact on Individuals' performance. On the other hand, more commonly experienced stressors do not affect professionals' performances.