520 resultados para time sensitive window


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Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

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This thesis provides a query model suitable for context sensitive access to a wide range of distributed linked datasets which are available to scientists using the Internet. The model is designed based on scientific research standards which require scientists to provide replicable methods in their publications. Although there are query models available that provide limited replicability, they do not contextualise the process whereby different scientists select dataset locations based on their trust and physical location. In different contexts, scientists need to perform different data cleaning actions, independent of the overall query, and the model was designed to accommodate this function. The query model was implemented as a prototype web application and its features were verified through its use as the engine behind a major scientific data access site, Bio2RDF.org. The prototype showed that it was possible to have context sensitive behaviour for each of the three mirrors of Bio2RDF.org using a single set of configuration settings. The prototype provided executable query provenance that could be attached to scientific publications to fulfil replicability requirements. The model was designed to make it simple to independently interpret and execute the query provenance documents using context specific profiles, without modifying the original provenance documents. Experiments using the prototype as the data access tool in workflow management systems confirmed that the design of the model made it possible to replicate results in different contexts with minimal additions, and no deletions, to query provenance documents.

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The concept of local accumulation time (LAT) was introduced by Berezhkovskii and coworkers in 2010–2011 to give a finite measure of the time required for the transient solution of a reaction–diffusion equation to approach the steady–state solution (Biophys J. 99, L59 (2010); Phys Rev E. 83, 051906 (2011)). Such a measure is referred to as a critical time. Here, we show that LAT is, in fact, identical to the concept of mean action time (MAT) that was first introduced by McNabb in 1991 (IMA J Appl Math. 47, 193 (1991)). Although McNabb’s initial argument was motivated by considering the mean particle lifetime (MPLT) for a linear death process, he applied the ideas to study diffusion. We extend the work of these authors by deriving expressions for the MAT for a general one–dimensional linear advection–diffusion–reaction problem. Using a combination of continuum and discrete approaches, we show that MAT and MPLT are equivalent for certain uniform–to-uniform transitions; these results provide a practical interpretation for MAT, by directly linking the stochastic microscopic processes to a meaningful macroscopic timescale. We find that for more general transitions, the equivalence between MAT and MPLT does not hold. Unlike other critical time definitions, we show that it is possible to evaluate the MAT without solving the underlying partial differential equation (pde). This makes MAT a simple and attractive quantity for practical situations. Finally, our work explores the accuracy of certain approximations derived using the MAT, showing that useful approximations for nonlinear kinetic processes can be obtained, again without treating the governing pde directly.

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Driver response (reaction) time (tr) of the second queuing vehicle is generally longer than other vehicles at signalized intersections. Though this phenomenon was revealed in 1972, the above factor is still ignored in conventional departure models. This paper highlights the need for quantitative measurements and analysis of queuing vehicle performance in spontaneous discharge pattern because it can improve microsimulation. Video recording from major cities in Australia plus twenty two sets of vehicle trajectories extracted from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) Peachtree Street Dataset have been analyzed to better understand queuing vehicle performance in the discharge process. Findings from this research will alleviate driver response time and also can be used for the calibration of the microscopic traffic simulation model.

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This paper presents the benefits and issues related to travel time prediction on urban network. Travel time information quantifies congestion and is perhaps the most important network performance measure. Travel time prediction has been an active area of research for the last five decades. The activities related to ITS have increased the attention of researchers for better and accurate real-time prediction of travel time. Majority of the literature on travel time prediction is applicable to freeways where, under non-incident conditions, traffic flow is not affected by external factors such as traffic control signals and opposing traffic flows. On urban environment the problem is more complicated due to conflicting areas (intersections), mid-link sources and sinks etc. and needs to be addressed.

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Raman spectroscopy, when used in spatially offset mode, has become a potential tool for the identification of explosives and other hazardous substances concealed in opaque containers. The molecular fingerprinting capability of Raman spectroscopy makes it an attractive tool for the unambiguous identification of hazardous substances in the field. Additionally, minimal sample preparation is required compared with other techniques. We report a field portable time resolved Raman sensor for the detection of concealed chemical hazards in opaque containers. The new sensor uses a pulsed nanosecond laser source in conjunction with an intensified CCD detector. The new sensor employs a combination of time and space resolved Raman spectroscopy to enhance the detection capability. The new sensor can identify concealed hazards by a single measurement without any chemometric data treatments.

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A new spatial logic encompassing redefined concepts of time and place, space and distance, requires a comprehensive shift in the approach to designing workplace environments for today’s adaptive, collaborative organizations operating in a dynamic business world. Together with substantial economic and cultural shifts and an increased emphasis on lifestyle considerations, the advances in information technology have prompted a radical re-ordering of organizational relationships and the associated structures, processes, and places of doing business. Within the duality of space and an augmentation of the traditional notions of place, organizational and institutional structures pose new challenges for the design professions. The literature reveals that there has always been a mono-organizational focus in relation to workplace design strategies and the burgeoning trend towards inter-organizational collaboration, enabled the identification of a gap in the knowledge relative to workplace design. The NetWorkPlaceTM© constitutes a multi-dimensional concept having the capacity to deal with the fluidity and ambiguity characteristic of the network context, as both a topic of research and the way of going about it.

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Using Gray and McNaughton’s (2000) revised Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (r-RST), we examined the influence of personality on processing of words presented in gain-framed and loss-framed anti-speeding messages and how the processing biases associated with personality influenced message acceptance. The r-RST predicts that the nervous system regulates personality and that behaviour is dependent upon the activation of the Behavioural Activation System (BAS), activated by reward cues and the Fight-Flight-Freeze System (FFFS), activated by punishment cues. According to r-RST, individuals differ in the sensitivities of their BAS and FFFS (i.e., weak to strong), which in turn leads to stable patterns of behaviour in the presence of rewards and punishments, respectively. It was hypothesised that individual differences in personality (i.e., strength of the BAS and the FFFS) would influence the degree of both message processing (as measured by reaction time to previously viewed message words) and message acceptance (measured three ways by perceived message effectiveness, behavioural intentions, and attitudes). Specifically, it was anticipated that, individuals with a stronger BAS would process the words presented in the gain-frame messages faster than those with a weaker BAS and individuals with a stronger FFFS would process the words presented in the loss-frame messages faster than those with a weaker FFFS. Further, it was expected that greater processing (faster reaction times) would be associated with greater acceptance for that message. Driver licence holding students (N = 108) were recruited to view one of four anti-speeding messages (i.e., social gain-frame, social loss-frame, physical gain-frame, and physical loss-frame). A computerised lexical decision task assessed participants’ subsequent reaction times to message words, as an indicator of the extent of processing of the previously viewed message. Self-report measures assessed personality and the three message acceptance measures. As predicted, the degree of initial processing of the content of the social gain-framed message mediated the relationship between the reward sensitive trait and message effectiveness. Initial processing of the physical loss-framed message partially mediated the relationship between the punishment sensitive trait and both message effectiveness and behavioural intention ratings. These results show that reward sensitivity and punishment sensitivity traits influence cognitive processing of gain-framed and loss-framed message content, respectively, and subsequently, message effectiveness and behavioural intention ratings. Specifically, a range of road safety messages (i.e., gain-frame and loss-frame messages) could be designed which align with the processing biases associated with personality and which would target those individuals who are sensitive to rewards and those who are sensitive to punishments.

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For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

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Determining the temporal scale of biological evolution has traditionally been the preserve of paleontology, with the timing of species originations and major diversifications all being read from the fossil record. However, the ages of the earliest (correctly identified) records will underestimate actual origins due to the incomplete nature of the fossil record and the necessity for lineages to have evolved sufficiently divergent morphologies in order to be distinguished. The possibility of inferring divergence times more accurately has been promoted by the idea that the accumulation of genetic change between modern lineages can be used as a molecular clock (Zuckerkandl and Pauling, 1965). In practice, though, molecular dates have often been so old as to be incongruent even with liberal readings of the fossil record. Prominent examples include inferred diversifications of metazoan phyla hundreds of millions of years before their Cambrian fossil record appearances (e.g., Nei et al., 2001) and a basal split between modern birds (Neoaves) that is almost double the age of their earliest recognizable fossils (e.g., Cooper and Penny, 1997).

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Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

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Long-term changes in the genetic composition of a population occur by the fixation of new mutations, a process known as substitution. The rate at which mutations arise in a population and the rate at which they are fixed are expected to be equal under neutral conditions (Kimura, 1968). Between the appearance of a new mutation and its eventual fate of fixation or loss, there will be a period in which it exists as a transient polymorphism in the population (Kimura and Ohta, 1971). If the majority of mutations are deleterious (and nonlethal), the fixation probabilities of these transient polymorphisms are reduced and the mutation rate will exceed the substitution rate (Kimura, 1983). Consequently, different apparent rates may be observed on different time scales of the molecular evolutionary process (Penny, 2005; Penny and Holmes, 2001). The substitution rate of the mitochondrial protein-coding genes of birds and mammals has been traditionally recognized to be about 0.01 substitutions/site/million years (Myr) (Brown et al., 1979; Ho, 2007; Irwin et al., 1991; Shields and Wilson, 1987), with the noncoding D-loop evolving several times more quickly (e.g., Pesole et al., 1992; Quinn, 1992). Over the past decade, there has been mounting evidence that instantaneous mutation rates substantially exceed substitution rates, in a range of organisms (e.g., Denver et al., 2000; Howell et al., 2003; Lambert et al., 2002; Mao et al., 2006; Mumm et al., 1997; Parsons et al., 1997; Santos et al., 2005). The immediate reaction to the first of these findings was that the polymorphisms generated by the elevated mutation rate are short-lived, perhaps extending back only a few hundred years (Gibbons, 1998; Macaulay et al., 1997). That is, purifying selection was thought to remove these polymorphisms very rapidly.

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Fractional differential equations are becoming more widely accepted as a powerful tool in modelling anomalous diffusion, which is exhibited by various materials and processes. Recently, researchers have suggested that rather than using constant order fractional operators, some processes are more accurately modelled using fractional orders that vary with time and/or space. In this paper we develop computationally efficient techniques for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equations (tsfrde) using the finite difference scheme. We adopt the Coimbra variable order time fractional operator and variable order fractional Laplacian operator in space where both orders are functions of time. Because the fractional operator is nonlocal, it is challenging to efficiently deal with its long range dependence when using classical numerical techniques to solve such equations. The novelty of our method is that the numerical solution of the time-variable-order tsfrde is written in terms of a matrix function vector product at each time step. This product is approximated efficiently by the Lanczos method, which is a powerful iterative technique for approximating the action of a matrix function by projecting onto a Krylov subspace. Furthermore an adaptive preconditioner is constructed that dramatically reduces the size of the required Krylov subspaces and hence the overall computational cost. Numerical examples, including the variable-order fractional Fisher equation, are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the approach.

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In the medical and healthcare arena, patients‟ data is not just their own personal history but also a valuable large dataset for finding solutions for diseases. While electronic medical records are becoming popular and are used in healthcare work places like hospitals, as well as insurance companies, and by major stakeholders such as physicians and their patients, the accessibility of such information should be dealt with in a way that preserves privacy and security. Thus, finding the best way to keep the data secure has become an important issue in the area of database security. Sensitive medical data should be encrypted in databases. There are many encryption/ decryption techniques and algorithms with regard to preserving privacy and security. Currently their performance is an important factor while the medical data is being managed in databases. Another important factor is that the stakeholders should decide more cost-effective ways to reduce the total cost of ownership. As an alternative, DAS (Data as Service) is a popular outsourcing model to satisfy the cost-effectiveness but it takes a consideration that the encryption/ decryption modules needs to be handled by trustworthy stakeholders. This research project is focusing on the query response times in a DAS model (AES-DAS) and analyses the comparison between the outsourcing model and the in-house model which incorporates Microsoft built-in encryption scheme in a SQL Server. This research project includes building a prototype of medical database schemas. There are 2 types of simulations to carry out the project. The first stage includes 6 databases in order to carry out simulations to measure the performance between plain-text, Microsoft built-in encryption and AES-DAS (Data as Service). Particularly, the AES-DAS incorporates implementations of symmetric key encryption such as AES (Advanced Encryption Standard) and a Bucket indexing processor using Bloom filter. The results are categorised such as character type, numeric type, range queries, range queries using Bucket Index and aggregate queries. The second stage takes the scalability test from 5K to 2560K records. The main result of these simulations is that particularly as an outsourcing model, AES-DAS using the Bucket index shows around 3.32 times faster than a normal AES-DAS under the 70 partitions and 10K record-sized databases. Retrieving Numeric typed data takes shorter time than Character typed data in AES-DAS. The aggregation query response time in AES-DAS is not as consistent as that in MS built-in encryption scheme. The scalability test shows that the DBMS reaches in a certain threshold; the query response time becomes rapidly slower. However, there is more to investigate in order to bring about other outcomes and to construct a secured EMR (Electronic Medical Record) more efficiently from these simulations.

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The incidence of sleep-related crashes has been estimated to account for approximately 20% of all fatal and severe crashes. The use of sleepiness countermeasures by drivers is an important component to reduce the incidence rates of sleep-related crashes. Taking a brief nap and stopping for a rest break are two highly publicised countermeasures for driver sleepiness and are also believed by drivers to be the most effective countermeasures. Despite this belief, there is scarce evidence to support the utility of these countermeasures for reducing driver sleepiness levels. Therefore, determining the effectiveness of these countermeasures is an important road safety concern. The current study utilised a young adult sample (N = 20) to investigate the effectiveness of a nap and an active rest break. The countermeasures effects were evaluated by physiological, behavioural (hazard perception skill), and subjective measures previously found sensitive to sleepiness. Participants initially completed two hours of a simulated driving task followed by a 15 minute nap opportunity or a 15 minute active rest break that included 10 minutes of brisk walking. After the break, participants completed one final hour of the simulated driving task. A within-subjects design was used so that each participant completed both the nap and the active rest break conditions on separate occasions. The analyses revealed that only the nap break provided any meaningful reduction in physiological sleepiness, reduced subjective sleepiness levels, and maintained hazard perception performance. In contrast, the active rest break had no effect for reducing physiological sleepiness and resulted in a decrement in hazard perception performance (i.e., an increase of reaction time latencies), with a transient reduction in subjective sleepiness levels. A number of theoretical, empirical and practical issues were identified by the current study.