Can a text message a week improve breastfeeding?

Background Breastfeeding is recognised as the optimal method for feeding infants with health gains made by reducing infectious diseases in infancy; and chronic diseases, including obesity, in childhood, adolescence and adulthood. Despite this, exclusivity and duration in developed countries remains resistant to improvement. The objectives of this research were to test if an automated mobile phone text messaging intervention, delivering one text message a week, could increase “any” breastfeeding rates and improve breastfeeding self-efficacy and coping. Methods Women were eligible to participate if they were: over eighteen years; had an infant less than three months old; were currently breastfeeding; no diagnosed mental illness; and used a mobile phone . Women in the intervention group received MumBubConnect, a text messaging service with automated responses delivered once a week for 8 weeks. Women in the comparison group received their usual care and were sampled two years after the intervention group. Data collection included online surveys at two time points, week zero and week nine, to measure breastfeeding exclusivity and duration, coping, emotions, accountability and self-efficacy. A range of statistical analyses were used to test for differences between groups. Hierarchical regression was used to investigate change in breastfeeding outcome, between groups, adjusting for co-variates. Results The intervention group had 120 participants at commencement and 114 at completion, the comparison group had 114 participants at commencement and 86 at completion. MumBubConnect had a positive impact on the primary outcome of breastfeeding behaviors with women receiving the intervention more likely to continue exclusive breastfeeding; with a 6% decrease in exclusive breastfeeding in the intervention group, compared to a 14% decrease in the comparison group (p < 0.001). This remained significant after controlling for infant age, mother’s income, education and delivery type (p = 0.04). Women in the intervention group demonstrated active coping and were less likely to display emotions-focussed coping (p < .001). There was no discernible statistical effect on self-efficacy or accountability. Conclusions A fully automated text messaging services appears to improve exclusive breastfeeding duration. The service provides a well-accepted, personalised support service that empowers women to actively resolve breastfeeding issues. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12614001091695.

Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of the integrated report card for the Great Barrier Reef catchments

This report presents the final deliverable from the project titled Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of an integrated report card’ funded by the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF; Project 3.7.7). The key management driver of this, and a number of other MTSRF projects concerned with indicator development, is the requirement for state and federal government authorities and other stakeholders to provide robust assessments of the present ‘state’ or ‘health’ of regional ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments and adjacent marine waters. An integrated report card format, that encompasses both biophysical and socioeconomic factors, is an appropriate framework through which to deliver these assessments and meet a variety of reporting requirements. It is now well recognised that a ‘report card’ format for environmental reporting is very effective for community and stakeholder communication and engagement, and can be a key driver in galvanising community and political commitment and action. Although a report card it needs to be understandable by all levels of the community, it also needs to be underpinned by sound, quality-assured science. In this regard this project was to develop approaches to address the statistical issues that arise from amalgamation or integration of sets of discrete indicators into a final score or assessment of the state of the system. In brief, the two main issues are (1) selecting, measuring and interpreting specific indicators that vary both in space and time, and (2) integrating a range of indicators in such a way as to provide a succinct but robust overview of the state of the system. Although there is considerable research and knowledge of the use of indicators to inform the management of ecological, social and economic systems, methods on how to best to integrate multiple disparate indicators remain poorly developed. Therefore the objective of this project was to (i) focus on statistical approaches aimed at ensuring that estimates of individual indicators are as robust as possible, and (ii) present methods that can be used to report on the overall state of the system by integrating estimates of individual indicators. It was agreed at the outset, that this project was to focus on developing methods for a water quality report card. This was driven largely by the requirements of Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP) and led to strong partner engagement with the Reef Water Quality Partnership.

Integrating PV systems into distribution networks with battery energy storage systems

Integrating Photovoltaic (PV) systems with battery energy storage in the distribution network will be essential to allow for continued uptake of domestic PV system installations. With increasing concerns regarding environmental and climate change issues, incorporating sources of renewable energy into power networks across the world will be key for a sustainable future. Australia is well placed to utilise solar energy as a significant component of its future energy generation and within the last 5 years there has been a rapid growth in the penetration levels seen by the grid. This growth of PV systems is causing a number of issues including intermittency of supply, negative power flow and voltage rises. Using the simulator tool GridLAB-D with a model of a typical South-East Queensland (SEQ) 11 kV distribution feeder, the effect of various configurations of PV systems have been offset with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). From this, combinations of PV and storage that are most effective at mitigating the issues were explored.

Utilizing reactive capability of PV inverters and battery systems to improve voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Significant increase in installation of rooftop Photovoltaic (PV) in the Low-Voltage (LV) residential distribution network has resulted in over voltage problems. Moreover, increasing peak demand creates voltage dip problems and make voltage profile even worse. Utilizing the reactive power capability of PV inverter (RCPVI) can improve the voltage profile to some extent. Resistive caharcteristic (higher R/X ratio) limits the effectiveness of reactive power to provide voltage support in distribution network. Battery Energy Storage (BES), whereas, can store the excess PV generation during high solar insolation time and supply the stored energy back to the grid during peak demand. A coordinated algorithm is developed in this paper to use the reactive capability of PV inverter and BES with droop control. Proposed algorithm is capable to cater the severe voltage violation problem using RCPVI and BES. A signal flow is also mentioned in this research work to ensure smooth communication between all the equipments. Finally the developed algorithm is validated in a test distribution network.

Evaluation of the spatial distribution of γH2AX following ionizing radiation

An early molecular response to DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) is phosphorylation of the Ser-139 residue within the terminal SQEY motif of the histone H2AX1,2. This phosphorylation of H2AX is mediated by the phosphatidyl-inosito 3-kinase (PI3K) family of proteins, ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM), DNA-protein kinase catalytic subunit and ATM and RAD3-related (ATR)3. The phosphorylated form of H2AX, referred to as γH2AX, spreads to adjacent regions of chromatin from the site of the DSB, forming discrete foci, which are easily visualized by immunofluorecence microscopy3. Analysis and quantitation of γH2AX foci has been widely used to evaluate DSB formation and repair, particularly in response to ionizing radiation and for evaluating the efficacy of various radiation modifying compounds and cytotoxic compounds Given the exquisite specificity and sensitivity of this de novo marker of DSBs, it has provided new insights into the processes of DNA damage and repair in the context of chromatin. For example, in radiation biology the central paradigm is that the nuclear DNA is the critical target with respect to radiation sensitivity. Indeed, the general consensus in the field has largely been to view chromatin as a homogeneous template for DNA damage and repair. However, with the use of γH2AX as molecular marker of DSBs, a disparity in γ-irradiation-induced γH2AX foci formation in euchromatin and heterochromatin has been observed5-7. Recently, we used a panel of antibodies to either mono-, di- or tri- methylated histone H3 at lysine 9 (H3K9me1, H3K9me2, H3K9me3) which are epigenetic imprints of constitutive heterochromatin and transcriptional silencing and lysine 4 (H3K4me1, H3K4me2, H3K4me3), which are tightly correlated actively transcribing euchromatic regions, to investigate the spatial distribution of γH2AX following ionizing radiation8. In accordance with the prevailing ideas regarding chromatin biology, our findings indicated a close correlation between γH2AX formation and active transcription9. Here we demonstrate our immunofluorescence method for detection and quantitation of γH2AX foci in non-adherent cells, with a particular focus on co-localization with other epigenetic markers, image analysis and 3Dmodeling.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Correlation based method for phase identification in a three phase LV distribution network

Low voltage distribution networks feature a high degree of load unbalance and the addition of rooftop photovoltaic is driving further unbalances in the network. Single phase consumers are distributed across the phases but even if the consumer distribution was well balanced when the network was constructed changes will occur over time. Distribution transformer losses are increased by unbalanced loadings. The estimation of transformer losses is a necessary part of the routine upgrading and replacement of transformers and the identification of the phase connections of households allows a precise estimation of the phase loadings and total transformer loss. This paper presents a new technique and preliminary test results for a method of automatically identifying the phase of each customer by correlating voltage information from the utility's transformer system with voltage information from customer smart meters. The techniques are novel as they are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken at the household and at the distribution transformer. Experimental results using a combination of electrical power and current of the real smart meter datasets demonstrate the performance of our techniques.

Impact of high PV penetration on distribution transformer life time

Integration of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) in residential networks at moderate penetration levels is becoming a reality in many countries including Australia. Despite the technical challenges in properly accommodating PV units, one of the major benefits is the ability of PV units to extend useful life time of distribution transformers. This effect is not quantified in the existing literature. This paper carries out an analysis into the impacts of rooftop PVs at different penetration levels on the performance of distribution transformers and residential networks. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the benefit of the distribution transformer life extension brought about by customer-owned rooftop PV units. The proposed methodology is applied to a real distribution system with various scenarios, including different penetration levels. The results show the distribution transformer loss-of-life function, as a function of the rooftop PV penetration level, is monotonically decreasing function which saturates after a certain penetration level. The best life improvements occur with transformers that are highly loaded and the presence of a significant PV installation may support the deferral of transformer upgrades.

Multi-agent systems for modeling high penetration photovoltaic system impacts in distribution networks

This paper reviews the use of multi-agent systems to model the impacts of high levels of photovoltaic (PV) system penetration in distribution networks and presents some preliminary data obtained from the Perth Solar City high penetration PV trial. The Perth Solar City trial consists of a low voltage distribution feeder supplying 75 customers where 29 consumers have roof top photovoltaic systems. Data is collected from smart meters at each consumer premises, from data loggers at the transformer low voltage (LV) side and from a nearby distribution network SCADA measurement point on the high voltage side (HV) side of the transformer. The data will be used to progressively develop MAS models.

Consumer phase identification in a three phase unbalanced LV distribution network

A new technique is presented for automatically identifying the phase connection of domestic customers. Voltage information from a reference three phase house is correlated with voltage information from other customer electricity meters on the same network to determine the highest probability phase connection. The techniques are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken by the household smart meters and no additional equipment is required. The method is demonstrated using real smart meter datasets to correctly identify the phase connections of 75 consumers on a low voltage distribution feeder.

Approximation of Bayesian predictive p-values with regression ABC

In the Bayesian framework a standard approach to model criticism is to compare some function of the observed data to a reference predictive distribution. The result of the comparison can be summarized in the form of a p-value, and it's well known that computation of some kinds of Bayesian predictive p-values can be challenging. The use of regression adjustment approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods is explored for this task. Two problems are considered. The first is the calibration of posterior predictive p-values so that they are uniformly distributed under some reference distribution for the data. Computation is difficult because the calibration process requires repeated approximation of the posterior for different data sets under the reference distribution. The second problem considered is approximation of distributions of prior predictive p-values for the purpose of choosing weakly informative priors in the case where the model checking statistic is expensive to compute. Here the computation is difficult because of the need to repeatedly sample from a prior predictive distribution for different values of a prior hyperparameter. In both these problems we argue that high accuracy in the computations is not required, which makes fast approximations such as regression adjustment ABC very useful. We illustrate our methods with several samples.

Statistical methods for electromyography data and associated problems

This thesis proposes three novel models which extend the statistical methodology for motor unit number estimation, a clinical neurology technique. Motor unit number estimation is important in the treatment of degenerative muscular diseases and, potentially, spinal injury. Additionally, a recent and untested statistic to enable statistical model choice is found to be a practical alternative for larger datasets. The existing methods for dose finding in dual-agent clinical trials are found to be suitable only for designs of modest dimensions. The model choice case-study is the first of its kind containing interesting results using so-called unit information prior distributions.

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.