Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10−9 to P = 1.8 × 10−40) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10−3 to P = 1.2 × 10−13). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Distribution of ocular biometry in 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children

Purpose: To describe distributions of ocular biometry and their associations with refraction in 7- and 14-year-old children in urban areas of Anyang, central China. Methods: A total of 2271 grade 1 students aged 7.1 ± 0.4 years and 1786 grade 8 students aged 13.7 ± 0.5 years were measured with ocular biometry and cycloplegic refraction. A parental myopia questionnaire was administered to parents. Results: Mean axial length, anterior chamber depth, lens thickness, central corneal thickness, corneal diameter, corneal radius of curvature, axial length/corneal radius of curvature ratio, and spherical equivalent refraction were 22.72 ± 0.76 mm, 2.89 ± 0.24 mm, 3.61 ± 0.19 mm, 540.5 ± 31 μm, 12.06 ± 0.44 mm, 7.80 ± 0.25 mm, 2.91 ± 0.08, and +0.95 ± 1.05 diopters (D), respectively, in 7-year-old children. They were 24.39 ± 1.13 mm, 3.42 ± 0.41 mm, 3.18 ± 0.24 mm, 548.9 ± 33 μm, 12.03 ± 0.43 mm, 7.80 ± 0.26 mm, 3.13 ± 0.14, and −2.06 ± 2.20 D, respectively, in 14-year-old children. Compared with 7-year-old children, the older group had significantly more myopia (−3.0 D), longer axial length (1.7 mm), deeper anterior chamber depth (0.3 mm), thinner lens thickness (−0.2 mm), thicker central corneal thickness (10 μm), and greater axial length/corneal radius of curvature ratio (0.22) (all p < 0.001), as well as smaller corneal diameter (−0.03 mm, p = 0.02) and similar corneal radius of curvature. Sex differences were similar in both age groups, with boys having longer axial length (0.5 mm), deeper anterior chamber depth (0.1 mm), shorter lens thickness (0.03 mm), greater central corneal thickness (5 μm), greater corneal diameter (0.15 mm), and greater corneal radius of curvature (0.14 mm) than girls (all p < 0.01). The most important variables related to spherical equivalent refraction were vitreous length, corneal radius of curvature, and lens thickness. Conclusions: The 14-year-old group had larger parameter dimensions than the 7-year-old group except for corneal radius of curvature (unchanged) and lens thickness and corneal diameter (both smaller). Boys had large parameter dimensions than girls except for lens thickness (smaller). Axial length, corneal radius of curvature, and lens thickness were the most important determinants of refraction.

Lens shape and refractive index distribution in type 1 diabetes

Purpose: To compare lens dimensions and refractive index distributions in type 1 diabetes and age-matched control groups. Methods: There were 17 participants with type 1 diabetes, consisting of two subgroups (7 young [23 ± 4 years] and 10 older [54 ± 4 years] participants), with 23 controls (13 young, 24 ± 4 years; 10 older, 55 ± 4 years). For each participant, one eye was tested with relaxed accommodation. A 3T clinical magnetic resonance imaging scanner was used to image the eye, employing a multiple spin echo (MSE) sequence to determine lens dimensions and refractive index profiles along the equatorial and axial directions. Results: The diabetes group had significantly smaller lens equatorial diameters and larger lens axial thicknesses than the control group (diameter mean ± 95% confidence interval [CI]: diabetes group 8.65 ± 0.26 mm, control group 9.42 ± 0.18 mm; axial thickness: diabetes group 4.33 ± 0.30 mm, control group 3.80 ± 0.14 mm). These differences were also significant within each age group. The older group had significantly greater axial thickness than the young group (older group 4.35 ± 0.26 mm, young group 3.70 ± 0.25 mm). Center refractive indices of diabetes and control groups were not significantly different. There were some statistically significant differences between the refractive index fitting parameters of young and older groups, but not between diabetes and control groups of the same age. Conclusions: Smaller lens diameters occurred in the diabetes groups than in the age-matched control groups. Differences in refractive index distribution between persons with and without diabetes are too small to have important effects on instruments measuring axial thickness.

Editorial: Measuring refractive index distribution in the human eye lens

Non-invasive measurements of the age dependence of refractive index distribution in human eye lenses in vitro using a novel X-ray Talbot Interferometry method. In their paper, the authors make frequent reference to our own work in which we employed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to make similar non-invasive measurements of the refractive index distribution in the human eye lens [2, 3]. Prior to the current work, ours was the only method for making such measurements both non-invasively and without prior assumptions about the shape of the refractive index distribution. For this reason, the latest work is to be welcomed. However at several points in the paper, Pierscionek et al. [1] make statements about our technique which are factually incorrect...

Variation in the walking time to bus stop by the degree of transit captivity

Measures of transit accessibility are important in evaluating transit services, planning for future services and investment on land use development. Existing tools measure transit accessibility using averaged walking distance or walking time to public transit. Although the mode captivity may have significant implications on one’s willingness to walk to use public transit, this has not been addressed in the literature to date. Failed to distinguish transit captive users may lead to overestimated ridership and spatial coverage of transit services. The aim of this research is to integrate the concept of transit captivity into the analysis of walking access to public transit. The conventional way of defining “captive” and “choice” transit users showed no significant difference in their walking times according to a preliminary analysis. A cluster analysis technique is used to further divide “choice” users by three main factors, namely age group, labour force status and personal income. After eliminating “true captive” users, defined as those without driver’s licence or without a car in respective household, “non-true captive” users were classified into a total of eight groups having similar socio-economic characteristics. The analysis revealed significant differences in the walking times and patterns by their level of captivity to public transit. This paper challenges the rule-of-thumb of 400m walking distance to bus stops. In average, people’s willingness to walk dropped drastically at 268m and continued to drop constantly until it reached the mark of 670m, where there was another drastic drop of 17%, which left with only 10% of the total bus riders willing to walk 670m or more. This research found that mothers working part time were the ones with lowest transit captivity and thus most sensitive to the walking time, followed by high-income earners and the elderly. The level of captivity increases when public transit users earned lesser income, such as students and students working part time.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

Data distribution and task scheduling for distributed computing of all-to-all comparison problems

This research studied distributed computing of all-to-all comparison problems with big data sets. The thesis formalised the problem, and developed a high-performance and scalable computing framework with a programming model, data distribution strategies and task scheduling policies to solve the problem. The study considered storage usage, data locality and load balancing for performance improvement in solving the problem. The research outcomes can be applied in bioinformatics, biometrics and data mining and other domains in which all-to-all comparisons are a typical computing pattern.

Exploiting the beta distribution-based reputation model in recommender system

Reputation systems are employed to measure the quality of items on the Web. Incorporating accurate reputation scores in recommender systems is useful to provide more accurate recommendations as recommenders are agnostic to reputation. The ratings aggregation process is a vital component of a reputation system. Reputation models available do not consider statistical data in the rating aggregation process. This limitation can reduce the accuracy of generated reputation scores. In this paper, we propose a new reputation model that considers previously ignored statistical data. We compare our proposed model against state-of the-art models using top-N recommender system experiment.

Australian feature films and distribution: Industry or cottage industry?

Feature films remain critical flagships to any national film industry. Australian feature films can be highly commercial endeavours that also perform symbolic functions by embodying the national imaginary in big screen based sound and imagery. They conduct a dialogue with domestic audiences as well as showcase key aspects of Australia in the global film festival circuit. As the pre-eminent filmmaking form, feature films also serve as important launchpads for the careers of many Australian writers, directors, actors and technical crew. In the wake of over a decade of diminished share of local box office obtained by Australian feature films, Australian Feature Films and Distribution: Industry or cottage industry, examines issues in the production sector affecting the performance of Australian feature films and some responses by the central funding and support screen agency, Screen Australia.

Cluster randomised-control trial for an Australian child protection education program: Study protocol for the Learn to be safe with Emmy and friends™

Background Child maltreatment has severe short-and long-term consequences for children’s health, development, and wellbeing. Despite the provision of child protection education programs in many countries, few have been rigorously evaluated to determine their effectiveness. We describe the design of a multi-site gold standard evaluation of an Australian school-based child protection education program. The intervention has been developed by a not-for-profit agency and comprises 5 1-h sessions delivered to first grade students (aged 5–6 years) in their regular classrooms. It incorporates common attributes of effective programs identified in the literature, and aligns with the Australian education curriculum. Methods/Design A three-site cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of Learn to be safe with Emmy and friends™ will be conducted with children in approximately 72 first grade classrooms in 24 Queensland primary (elementary) schools from three state regions, over a period of 2 years. Entire schools will be randomised, using a computer generated list of random numbers, to intervention and wait-list control conditions, to prevent contamination effects across students and classes. Data will be collected at baseline (pre-assessment), immediately after the intervention (post-assessment), and at 6-, 12-, and 18-months (follow-up assessments). Outcome assessors will be blinded to group membership. Primary outcomes assessed are children’s knowledge of program concepts; intentions to use program knowledge, skills, and help-seeking strategies; actual use of program material in a simulated situation; and anxiety arising from program participation. Secondary outcomes include a parent discussion monitor, parent observations of their children’s use of program materials, satisfaction with the program, and parental stress. A process evaluation will be conducted concurrently to assess program performance. Discussion This RCT addresses shortcomings in previous studies and methodologically extends research in this area by randomising at school-level to prevent cross-learning between conditions; providing longer-term outcome assessment than any previous study; examining the degree to which parents/guardians discuss intervention content with children at home; assessing potential moderating/mediating effects of family and child demographic variables; testing an in-vivo measure to assess children’s ability to discriminate safe/unsafe situations and disclose to trusted adults; and testing enhancements to existing measures to establish greater internal consistency.

Co-distribution and co-infection of chikungunya and dengue viruses

BACKGROUND Chikungunya and dengue infections are spatio-temporally related. The current review aims to determine the geographic limits of chikungunya, dengue and the principal mosquito vectors for both viruses and to synthesise current epidemiological understanding of their co-distribution. METHODS Three biomedical databases (PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science) were searched from their inception until May 2015 for studies that reported concurrent detection of chikungunya and dengue viruses in the same patient. Additionally, data from WHO, CDC and Healthmap alerts were extracted to create up-to-date global distribution maps for both dengue and chikungunya. RESULTS Evidence for chikungunya-dengue co-infection has been found in Angola, Gabon, India, Madagascar, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Saint Martin, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand and Yemen; these constitute only 13 out of the 98 countries/territories where both chikungunya and dengue epidemic/endemic transmission have been reported. CONCLUSIONS Understanding the true extent of chikungunya-dengue co-infection is hampered by current diagnosis largely based on their similar symptoms. Heightened awareness of chikungunya among the public and public health practitioners in the advent of the ongoing outbreak in the Americas can be expected to improve diagnostic rigour. Maps generated from the newly compiled lists of the geographic distribution of both pathogens and vectors represent the current geographical limits of chikungunya and dengue, as well as the countries/territories at risk of future incursion by both viruses. These describe regions of co-endemicity in which lab-based diagnosis of suspected cases is of higher priority.

What are the driving factors influencing the size distribution of airborne synthetic clay particles emitted from a jet milling process?

In the field of workplace air quality, measuring and analyzing the size distribution of airborne particles to identify their sources and apportion their contribution has become widely accepted, however, the driving factors that influence this parameter, particularly for nanoparticles (< 100 nm), have not been thoroughly determined. Identification of driving factors, and in turn, general trends in size distribution of emitted particles would facilitate the prediction of nanoparticles’ emission behavior and significantly contribute to their exposure assessment. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the particle number size distribution data, with a particular focus on the ultrafine size range of synthetic clay particles emitted from a jet milling machine was conducted using the multi-lognormal fitting method. The results showed relatively high contribution of nanoparticles to the emissions in many of the tested cases, and also, that both surface treatment and feed rate of the machine are significant factors influencing the size distribution of the emitted particles of this size. In particular, applying surface treatments and increasing the machine feed rate have the similar effect of reducing the size of the particles, however, no general trend was found in variations of size distribution across different surface treatments and feed rates. The findings of our study demonstrate that for this process and other activities, where no general trend is found in the size distribution of the emitted airborne particles due to dissimilar effects of the driving factors, each case must be treated separately in terms of workplace exposure assessment and regulations.

A closed-form optimal tuning of mass dampers for one degree-of-freedom systems under rotating unbalance forcing

This paper is focused on the study of a vibrating system forced by a rotating unbalance and coupled to a tuned mass damper (TMD). The analysis of the dynamic response of the entire system is used to define the parameters of such device in order to achieve optimal damping properties. The inertial forcing due to the rotating unbalance depends quadratically on the forcing frequency and it leads to optimal tuning parameters that differ from classical values obtained for pure harmonic forcing. Analytical results demonstrate that frequency and damping ratios, as a function of the mass parameter, should be higher than classical optimal parameters. The analytical study is carried out for the undamped primary system, and numerically investigated for the damped primary system. We show that, for practical applications, proper TMD tuning allows to achieve a reduction in the steady-state response of about 20% with respect to the response achieved with a classically tuned damper. Copyright © 2015 by ASME.

Chromosomal rearrangements, phenotypic variation and modularity: A case study from a contact zone between house mouse Robertsonian races in Central Italy

The Western European house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus, is well-known for the high frequency of Robertsonian fusions that have rapidly produced more than 50 karyotipic races, making it an ideal model for studying the mechanisms of chromosomal speciation. The mouse mandible is one of the traits studied most intensively to investigate the effect of Robertsonian fusions on phenotypic variation within and between populations. This complex bone structure has also been widely used to study the level of integration between different morphogenetic units. Here, with the aim of testing the effect of different karyotypic assets on the morphology of the mouse mandible and on its level of modularity, we performed morphometric analyses of mice from a contact area between two highly metacentric races in Central Italy. We found no difference in size, while the mandible shape was found to be different between the two Robertsonian races, even after accounting for the genetic relationships among individuals and geographic proximity. Our results support the existence of two modules that indicate a certain degree of evolutionary independence, but no difference in the strength of modularity between chromosomal races. Moreover, the ascending ramus showed more pronounced interpopulation/race phenotypic differences than the alveolar region, an effect that could be associated to their different polygenic architecture. This study suggests that chromosomal rearrangements play a role in the house mouse phenotypic divergence, and that the two modules of the mouse mandible are differentially affected by environmental factors and genetic makeup.