Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Shared common variants in prostate cancer and blood lipids

Background Epidemiological and clinical studies suggest comorbidity between prostate cancer (PCA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. However, the relationship between these two phenotypes is still not well understood. Here we sought to identify shared genetic loci between PCA and CVD risk factors. Methods We applied a genetic epidemiology method based on conjunction false discovery rate (FDR) that combines summary statistics from different genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and allows identification of genetic overlap between two phenotypes. We evaluated summary statistics from large, multi-centre GWA studies of PCA (n = 50 000) and CVD risk factors (n = 200 000) [triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-hip ratio and type 2 diabetes (T2D)]. Enrichment of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with PCA and CVD risk factors was assessed with conditional quantile-quantile plots and the Anderson-Darling test. Moreover, we pinpointed shared loci using conjunction FDR. Results We found the strongest enrichment of P-values in PCA was conditional on LDL and conditional on TG. In contrast, we found only weak enrichment conditional on HDL or conditional on the other traits investigated. Conjunction FDR identified altogether 17 loci; 10 loci were associated with PCA and LDL, 3 loci were associated with PCA and TG and additionally 4 loci were associated with PCA, LDL and TG jointly (conjunction FDR < 0.01). For T2D, we detected one locus adjacent to HNF1B. Conclusions We found polygenic overlap between PCA predisposition and blood lipids, in particular LDL and TG, and identified 17 pleiotropic gene loci between PCA and LDL, and PCA and TG, respectively. These findings provide novel pathobiological insights and may have implications for trials using targeting lipid-lowering agents in a prevention or cancer setting.

An extension of the continual reassessment method using decision theory

The primary goal of a phase I trial is to find the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) of a treatment. The MTD is usually defined in terms of a tolerable probability, q*, of toxicity. Our objective is to find the highest dose with toxicity risk that does not exceed q*, a criterion that is often desired in designing phase I trials. This criterion differs from that of finding the dose with toxicity risk closest to q*, that is used in methods such as the continual reassessment method. We use the theory of decision processes to find optimal sequential designs that maximize the expected number of patients within the trial allocated to the highest dose with toxicity not exceeding q*, among the doses under consideration. The proposed method is very general in the sense that criteria other than the one considered here can be optimized and that optimal dose assignment can be defined in terms of patients within or outside the trial. It includes as an important special case the continual reassessment method. Numerical study indicates the strategy compares favourably with other phase I designs.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Human mating in the informal market for sperm donation: Preferences and decision making

Choosing a mate is one of the largest (economic) decisions humans make. This thesis investigates this large scale decision and how the process is changing with the advent of the internet and the growing market for online informal sperm donation. This research identifies individual factors that influence female mating preferences. It explores the roles of behavioural traits and physical appearance, preferences for homogamy and hypergamy, and personality, and how these impact the decision to choose a donor. Overall, this thesis makes contributions to both the literature on human behaviour, and that on decision-making in extreme and highly important situations.

Patient decision aids in routine maternity care: Benefits, barriers, and new opportunities

Background and aim Participation in decision-making, supported by comprehensive and quality information provision, is increasingly emphasised as a priority for women in maternity care. Patient decision aids are tools that can offer women greater access to information and guidance to participate in maternity care decision-making. Relative to their evaluation in controlled settings, the implementation of patient decision aids in routine maternity care has received little attention and our understanding of which approaches may be effective is limited. This paper critically discusses the application of patient decision aids in routine maternity care and explores viable solutions for promoting their successful uptake. Discussion A range of patient decision aids have been developed for use within maternity care, and controlled trials have highlighted their positive impact on the decision-making process for women. Nevertheless, evidence of successful patient decision aid implementation in real world health care settings is lacking due to practical and ideological barriers that exist. Patient-directed social marketing campaigns are a relatively novel approach to patient decision aid delivery that may facilitate their adoption in maternity care, at least in the short-term, by overcoming common implementation barriers. Social marketing may also be particularly well suited to maternity care, given the unique characteristics of this health context. Conclusions The potential of social marketing campaigns to facilitate patient decision aid adoption in maternity care highlights the need for pragmatic trials to evaluate their effectiveness. Identifying which sub-groups of women are more or less likely to respond to these strategies will further direct implementation.

The impact of private and shared open space on liveability in subtropical apartment buildings

The study explores the relationship between open space design, factors impacting open space provision, and resident satisfaction with open space in multistorey apartment buildings in the context of the subtropical lifestyle and climate of Brisbane Australia. The purpose of the paper is to identify the specific physical and spatial design characteristics residents perceive to be important in open spaces associated with their private dwellings and with shared open spaces. Firsthand resident evaluations of everyday experiences of residing in inner urban high density environments are explored through a survey of 636 residents and interviews with 24 residents. Private balconies are highly valued, but residents’ satisfaction would be enhanced by spaciousness for diverse activities, privacy and climate responsive design. Communal spaces and facilities are used infrequently by many residents who prefer interactions with community outside of the building. This is related to preferences for a level of anonymity in a setting where privacy is difficult to achieve due to physical proximity of neighbours.

“We have to work within the system!”: Staff perceptions of organizational barriers to decision making for older adults with dementia in Australian aged care facilities

The current study explored the perceptions of direct care staff working in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs) regarding the organizational barriers that they believe prevent them from facilitating decision making for individuals with dementia. Normalization process theory (NPT) was used to interpret the findings to understand these barriers in a broader context. The qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews (N = 41) and focus groups (N = 8) with 80 direct care staff members of all levels working in Australian RACFs. Data collection and analysis were conducted in parallel and followed a systematic, inductive approach in line with grounded theory. The perceptions of participants regarding the organizational barriers to facilitating decision making for individuals with dementia can be described by the core category, Working Within the System, and three sub-themes: (a) finding time, (b) competing rights, and (c)not knowing. Examining the views of direct care staff through the lens of NPT allows possible areas for improvement to be identified at an organizational level and the perceived barriers to be understood in the context of promoting normalization of decision making for individuals with dementia.

Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

Choosing a model of maternity care: decision support needs of Australian women

- BACKGROUND Access to information on the features and outcomes associated with the various models of maternity care available in Australia is vital for women's informed decision-making. This study sought to identify women's preferences for information access and decision-making involvement, as well as their priority information needs, for model of care decision-making. - METHODS A convenience sample of adult women of childbearing age in Queensland, Australia were recruited to complete an online survey assessing their model of care decision support needs. Knowledge on models of care and socio-demographic characteristics were also assessed. - RESULTS Altogether, 641 women provided usable survey data. Of these women, 26.7 percent had heard of all available models of care before starting the survey. Most women wanted access to information on models of care (90.4%) and an active role in decision-making (99.0%). Nine priority information needs were identified: cost, access to choice of mode of birth and care provider, after hours provider contact, continuity of carer in labor/birth, mobility during labor, discussion of the pros/cons of medical procedures, rates of skin-to-skin contact after birth, and availability at a preferred birth location. This information encompassed the priority needs of women across age, birth history, and insurance status subgroups. - CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates Australian women's unmet needs for information that supports them to effectively compare available options for model of maternity care. Findings provide clear direction on what information should be prioritized and ideal channels for information access to support quality decision-making in practice.

Decision examines wrongdoers and liability

In Ligon Sixty-Three Pty Ltd v ClarkeKann [2015] QSC 153 the court considered an application to join parties as defendants when it was alleged they were concurrent wrongdoers for the purpose of the proportionate liability provisions of the Civil Liability Act 2003 (Qld) (the Act).

Shared genetics underlying epidemiological association between endometriosis and ovarian cancer

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated associations between endometriosis and certain histotypes of ovarian cancer, including clear cell, low-grade serous and endometrioid carcinomas. We aimed to determine whether the observed associations might be due to shared genetic aetiology. To address this, we used two endometriosis datasets genotyped on common arrays with full-genome coverage (3194 cases and 7060 controls) and a large ovarian cancer dataset genotyped on the customized Illumina Infinium iSelect (iCOGS) arrays (10 065 cases and 21 663 controls). Previous work has suggested that a large number of genetic variants contribute to endometriosis and ovarian cancer (all histotypes combined) susceptibility. Here, using the iCOGS data, we confirmed polygenic architecture for most histotypes of ovarian cancer. This led us to evaluate if the polygenic effects are shared across diseases. We found evidence for shared genetic risks between endometriosis and all histotypes of ovarian cancer, except for the intestinal mucinous type. Clear cell carcinoma showed the strongest genetic correlation with endometriosis (0.51, 95% CI = 0.18–0.84). Endometrioid and low-grade serous carcinomas had similar correlation coefficients (0.48, 95% CI = 0.07–0.89 and 0.40, 95% CI = 0.05–0.75, respectively). High-grade serous carcinoma, which often arises from the fallopian tubes, showed a weaker genetic correlation with endometriosis (0.25, 95% CI = 0.11–0.39), despite the absence of a known epidemiological association. These results suggest that the epidemiological association between endometriosis and ovarian adenocarcinoma may be attributable to shared genetic susceptibility loci.

Genetic analysis for a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease

Objective: To apply genetic analysis of genome-wide association data to study the extent and nature of a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: Four separate methods for cross-phenotype genetic analysis were applied on data from 2 large-scale genome-wide association studies of migraine (19,981 cases, 56,667 controls) and CAD (21,076 cases, 63,014 controls). The first 2 methods quantified the extent of overlapping risk variants and assessed the load of CAD risk loci in migraineurs. Genomic regions of shared risk were then identified by analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes and by querying known genome-wide significant loci. Results: We found a significant overlap of genetic risk loci for migraine and CAD. When stratified by migraine subtype, this was limited to migraine without aura, and the overlap was protective in that patients with migraine had a lower load of CAD risk alleles than controls. Genes indicated by 16 shared risk loci point to mechanisms with potential roles in migraine pathogenesis and CAD, including endothelial dysfunction (PHACTR1) and insulin homeostasis (GIP). Conclusions: The results suggest that shared biological processes contribute to risk of migraine and CAD, but surprisingly this commonality is restricted to migraine without aura and the impact is in opposite directions. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these processes and their opposite relationship to migraine and CAD may improve our understanding of both disorders.

Shared genetic basis for migraine and ischemic stroke: A genome-wide analysis of common variants

OBJECTIVE To quantify genetic overlap between migraine and ischemic stroke (IS) with respect to common genetic variation. METHODS We applied 4 different approaches to large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide data on migraine (23,285 cases and 95,425 controls) and IS (12,389 cases and 62,004 controls). First, we queried known genome-wide significant loci for both disorders, looking for potential overlap of signals. We then analyzed the overall shared genetic load using polygenic scores and estimated the genetic correlation between disease subtypes using data derived from these models. We further interrogated genomic regions of shared risk using analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes using cross-phenotype spatial mapping. RESULTS We found substantial genetic overlap between migraine and IS using all 4 approaches. Migraine without aura (MO) showed much stronger overlap with IS and its subtypes than migraine with aura (MA). The strongest overlap existed between MO and large artery stroke (LAS; p = 6.4 x 10(-28) for the LAS polygenic score in MO) and between MO and cardioembolic stroke (CE; p = 2.7 x 10(-20) for the CE score in MO). CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate shared genetic susceptibility to migraine and IS, with a particularly strong overlap between MO and both LAS and CE pointing towards shared mechanisms. Our observations on MA are consistent with a limited role of common genetic variants in this subtype.

A taxonomic approach to understanding managerial ethical decision making approaches of clinically and non-clinically trained healthcare managers in Australia

Objective To understand differences in the managerial ethical decision-making styles of Australian healthcare managers through the exploratory use of the Managerial Ethical Profiles (MEP) Scale. Background Healthcare managers (doctors, nurses, allied health practitioners and non-clinically trained professionals) are faced with a raft of variables when making decisions within the workplace. In the absence of clear protocols and policies healthcare managers rely on a range of personal experiences, personal ethical philosophies, personal factors and organizational factors to arrive at a decision. Understanding the dominant approaches to managerial ethical decision-making, particularly for clinically trained healthcare managers, is a fundamental step in both increasing awareness of the importance of how managers make decisions, but also as a basis for ongoing development of healthcare managers. Design Cross-sectional. Methods The study adopts a taxonomic approach that simultaneously considers multiple ethical factors that potentially influence managerial ethical decision-making. These factors are used as inputs into cluster analysis to identify distinct patterns of influence on managerial ethical decision-making. Results Data analysis from the participants (n=441) showed a similar spread of the five managerial ethical profiles (Knights, Guardian Angels, Duty Followers, Defenders and Chameleons) across clinically trained and non-clinically trained healthcare managers. There was no substantial statistical difference between the two manager types (clinical and non-clinical) across the five profiles. Conclusion This paper demonstrated that managers that came from clinical backgrounds have similar ethical decision-making profiles to non-clinically trained managers. This is an important finding in terms of manager development and how organisations understand the various approaches of managerial decision-making across the different ethical profiles.