Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Calculation of the oxygen isotope discrimination factor for studying plant respiration

Measurement of discrimination against 18O during dark respiration in plants is currently accepted as the only reliable method of estimating the partitioning of electrons between the cytochrome and alternative pathways. In this paper, we review the theory of the technique and its application to a gas-phase system. We extend it to include sampling effects and show that the isotope discrimination factor, D, is calculated as –dln(1 + δ)/dlnO*, where δ is isotopic composition of the substrate oxygen and O*=[O2]/[N2] in a closed chamber containing tissue respiring in the dark. It is not necessary to integrate the expression but, if the integrated form is used, the resultant regression should not be constrained through the origin. This is important since any error in D will have significant effects on the estimation of the flux of electrons through the two pathways.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Determinants of plant performance dynamics : empirical analysis of the manufacturing sector in Indonesia, 1990-2000

We identify determinants of plant dynamics and find their differences before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis. The results show that the distinction of the crisis is important and the effects of the crisis do not seem to persist after 1998. Furthermore, we reject Gibrat's law as the right functional form to describe plant growth. We are not able to support empirically the theoretical results that smaller and efficient plants tend to grow faster than larger and inefficient plants with the exception of the crisis period. The results reflect that there was a trickle down effect of economic development.

miRPlant : an integrated tool for identification of plant miRNA from RNA sequencing data

Background Small RNA sequencing is commonly used to identify novel miRNAs and to determine their expression levels in plants. There are several miRNA identification tools for animals such as miRDeep, miRDeep2 and miRDeep*. miRDeep-P was developed to identify plant miRNA using miRDeep’s probabilistic model of miRNA biogenesis, but it depends on several third party tools and lacks a user-friendly interface. The objective of our miRPlant program is to predict novel plant miRNA, while providing a user-friendly interface with improved accuracy of prediction. Result We have developed a user-friendly plant miRNA prediction tool called miRPlant. We show using 16 plant miRNA datasets from four different plant species that miRPlant has at least a 10% improvement in accuracy compared to miRDeep-P, which is the most popular plant miRNA prediction tool. Furthermore, miRPlant uses a Graphical User Interface for data input and output, and identified miRNA are shown with all RNAseq reads in a hairpin diagram. Conclusions We have developed miRPlant which extends miRDeep* to various plant species by adopting suitable strategies to identify hairpin excision regions and hairpin structure filtering for plants. miRPlant does not require any third party tools such as mapping or RNA secondary structure prediction tools. miRPlant is also the first plant miRNA prediction tool that dynamically plots miRNA hairpin structure with small reads for identified novel miRNAs. This feature will enable biologists to visualize novel pre-miRNA structure and the location of small RNA reads relative to the hairpin. Moreover, miRPlant can be easily used by biologists with limited bioinformatics skills.

Understanding Heliothine (Lepidoptera: Heliothinae) pests: What is a host plant?

Heliothine moths (Lepidoptera: Heliothinae) include some of the world's most devastating pest species. Whereas the majority of nonpest heliothinae specialize on a single plant family, genus, or species, pest species are highly polyphagous, with populations often escalating in size as they move from one crop species to another. Here, we examine the current literature on heliothine host-selection behavior with the aim of providing a knowledge base for research scientists and pest managers. We review the host relations of pest heliothines, with a particular focus on Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner), the most economically damaging of all heliothine species. We then consider the important question of what constitutes a host plant in these moths, and some of the problems that arise when trying to determine host plant status from empirical studies on host use. The top six host plant families in the two main Australian pest species (H. armigera and Helicoverpa punctigera Wallengren) are the same and the top three (Asteraceae, Fabaceae, and Malvaceae) are ranked the same (in terms of the number of host species on which eggs or larvae have been identified), suggesting that these species may use similar cues to identify their hosts. In contrast, for the two key pest heliothines in the Americas, the Fabaceae contains approximate to 1/3 of hosts for both. For Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), the remaining hosts are more evenly distributed, with Solanaceae next, followed by Poaceae, Asteraceae, Malvaceae, and Rosaceae. For Heliothis virescens (F.), the next highest five families are Malvaceae, Asteraceae, Solanaceae, Convolvulaceae, and Scrophulariaceae. Again there is considerable overlap in host use at generic and even species level. H. armigera is the most widely distributed and recorded from 68 plant families worldwide, but only 14 families are recorded as a containing a host in all geographic areas. A few crop hosts are used throughout the range as expected, but in some cases there are anomalies, perhaps because host plant relation studies are not comparable. Studies on the attraction of heliothines to plant odors are examined in the context of our current understanding of insect olfaction, with the aim of better understanding the connection between odor perception and host choice. Finally, we discuss research into sustainable management of pest heliothines using knowledge of heliothine behavior and ecology. A coordinated international research effort is needed to advance our knowledge on host relations in widely distributed polyphagous species instead of the localized, piecemeal approaches to understanding these insects that has been the norm to date.

Nucleopolyhedrovirus introduction in Australia

Nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) has become an integral part of integrated pest management (IPM) in many Australian agricultural and horticultural crops. This is the culmination of years of work conducted by researchers at the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (QDPI&F) and Ag Biotech Australia Pty Ltd. In the early 1970’s researchers at QDPI&F identified and isolated a virus in Helicoverpa armigera populations in the field. This NPV was extensively studied and shown to be highly specific to Helicoverpa and Heliothis species. Further work showed that when used appropriately the virus could be used effectively to manage these insects in crops such as sorghum, cotton, chickpea and sweet corn. A similar virus was first commercially produced in the USA in the 1970’s. This product, Elcar®, was introduced into Australia in the late 1970’s by Shell Chemicals with limited success. A major factor contributing to the poor adoption of Elcar was the concurrent enormous success of the synthetic pyrethroids. The importance of integrated pest management was probably also not widely accepted at that time. Gradual development of insect resistance to synthetic pyrethroids and other synthetic insecticides in Australia and the increased awareness of the importance of IPM meant that researchers once again turned their attentions to environmentally friendly pest management tools such NPV and beneficial insects. In the 1990’s a company called Rhone-Poulenc registered an NPV for use in Australian sorghum, chickpea and cotton. This product, Gemstar®, was imported from the USA. In 2000 Ag Biotech Australia established an in-vivo production facility in Australia to produce commercial volumes of a product similar to the imported product. This product was branded, ViVUS®, and was first registered and sold commercially in Australia in 2003. The initial production of ViVUS used a virus identical to the American product but replicating it in an Australian Helicoverpa species, H. armigera. Subsequent research collaboration between QDPI&F and Ag Biotech reinvigorated interest in the local virus strain. This was purified and the production system adapted to produce it on a commercial scale. This new version of ViVUS, which was branded ViVUS Gold®, was first registered and sold commercially in 2004. Widespread insect resistance to insecticides and a greater understanding of integrated pest management is leading to increased adoption of technologies such NPV in Australian agriculture.

Application of meshfree methods to numerically simulate microscale deformations of different plant food materials during drying

Plant food materials have a very high demand in the consumer market and therefore, improved food products and efficient processing techniques are concurrently being researched in food engineering. In this context, numerical modelling and simulation techniques have a very high potential to reveal fundamentals of the underlying mechanisms involved. However, numerical modelling of plant food materials during drying becomes quite challenging, mainly due to the complexity of the multiphase microstructure of the material, which undergoes excessive deformations during drying. In this regard, conventional grid-based modelling techniques have limited applicability due to their inflexible grid-based fundamental limitations. As a result, meshfree methods have recently been developed which offer a more adaptable approach to problem domains of this nature, due to their fundamental grid-free advantages. In this work, a recently developed meshfree based two-dimensional plant tissue model is used for a comparative study of microscale morphological changes of several food materials during drying. The model involves Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and Discrete Element Method (DEM) to represent fluid and solid phases of the cellular structure. Simulation are conducted on apple, potato, carrot and grape tissues and the results are qualitatively and quantitatively compared and related with experimental findings obtained from the literature. The study revealed that cellular deformations are highly sensitive to cell dimensions, cell wall physical and mechanical properties, middle lamella properties and turgor pressure. In particular, the meshfree model is well capable of simulating critically dried tissues at lower moisture content and turgor pressure, which lead to cell wall wrinkling. The findings further highlighted the potential applicability of the meshfree approach to model large deformations of the plant tissue microstructure during drying, providing a distinct advantage over the state of the art grid-based approaches.

Numerical simulation of micro-scale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying - a meshfree approach

This thesis developed a high preforming alternative numerical technique to investigate microscale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying. The technique is based on a novel meshfree method, and is more capable of modeling large deformations of multiphase problem domains, when compared with conventional grid-based numerical modeling techniques. The developed cellular model can effectively replicate dried tissue morphological changes such as shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling, as influenced by moisture reduction and turgor loss.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.