Consumer phase identification in a three phase unbalanced LV distribution network

A new technique is presented for automatically identifying the phase connection of domestic customers. Voltage information from a reference three phase house is correlated with voltage information from other customer electricity meters on the same network to determine the highest probability phase connection. The techniques are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken by the household smart meters and no additional equipment is required. The method is demonstrated using real smart meter datasets to correctly identify the phase connections of 75 consumers on a low voltage distribution feeder.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Long-tailed bats' use of a Pinus radiata stand in Kinleith Forest : Recommendations for monitoring

Targeted monitoring of threatened species within plantations is becoming more important due to forest certification programmes’ requirement to consider protection of threatened species, and to increase knowledge of the distribution of species. To determine patterns of long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) activity in different habitat structures, with the aim of improving the likelihood of detection by targeting monitoring, we monitored one stand of 26 year-old Pinus radiata over seven months between December 2007 and June 2008 in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest centred around Tokoroa, South Waikato, New Zealand. Activity was determined by acoustic recording equipment, which is able to detect and record bats’ echolocation calls. We monitored activity from sunset to sunrise along a road through the stand, along stand edges, and in the interior of the stand. Bats were recorded on 80% of the 35 nights monitored. All activity throughout the monitoring period was detected on the edge of the stand or along the road. No bats were detected within the interior of the stand. Bat activity was highest along the road through the stand (40.4% of all passes), followed by an edge with stream running alongside (35.2%), along the road within a skidsite (19.8%), and along an edge without a stream (4.6%). There was a significant positive relationship between bat pass rate (bat passes h-1) and the feeding buzz rate (feeding buzzes h-1) indicating that bat activity was associated with feeding and not just commuting. Bat feeding activity was also highest along the road through the stand (59.2% of feeding buzzes), followed by the road within the skidsite (30.6%), and along the stream-side edge (10.2%). No feeding buzzes were recorded in either the interior or along the edge without the stream. Differences in overall feeding activity were significant only between the road and edge and between edges with and without a stream. Bat activity was detected each month and always by the second night of monitoring, and in this stand was highest during April. We recommend targeted monitoring for long-tailed bats be focused on road-side and stand edge habitat, and along streams, and that monitoring take place for at least three nights to maximise probability of detection.

Predictors of chronic bronchitis in South African adults

SETTING National household survey of adults in South Africa, a middle income country. OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence and predictors of chronic bronchitis. DESIGN A stratified national probability sample of households was selected. All adults in the selected households were interviewed. Chronic bronchitis was defined as chronic productive cough. Socio-demographic predictors were wealth, education, race, age and urban residence. Personal and exposure variables included history of tuberculosis, domestic exposure to smoky fuels, occupational exposures, smoking and body mass index. RESULTS The overall prevalence of chronic bronchitis was 2.3% in men and 2.8% in women. The strongest predictor of chronic bronchitis was a history of tuberculosis (men, odds ratio [OR] 4.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-9.2; women, OR 6.6; 95% CI 3.7-11.9). Other risk factors were smoking, occupational exposure (in men), domestic exposure to smoky fuel (in women) and (in univariate analysis only) being underweight. Wealth and particularly education were protective. CONCLUSION The pattern of chronic bronchitis in South Africa suggests a combination of risk factors that includes not only smoking but also tuberculosis, occupational exposures in men and domestic fuel exposure in women. Control of these risk factors requires public health action across a broad front. The protective role of education requires elucidation.

Wheeze, asthma diagnosis and medication use : a national adult survey in a developing country

Background As relatively little is known about adult wheeze and asthma in developing countries, this study aimed to determine the predictors of wheeze, asthma diagnosis, and current treatment in a national survey of South African adults. Methods A stratified national probability sample of households was drawn and all adults (>14 years) in the selected households were interviewed. Outcomes of interest were recent wheeze, asthma diagnosis, and current use of asthma medication. Predictors of interest were sex, age, household asset index, education, racial group, urban residence, medical insurance, domestic exposure to smoky fuels, occupational exposure, smoking, body mass index, and past tuberculosis. Results A total of 5671 men and 8155 women were studied. Although recent wheeze was reported by 14.4% of men and 17.6% of women and asthma diagnosis by 3.7% of men and 3.8% of women, women were less likely than men to be on current treatment (OR 0.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5 to 0.8). A history of tuberculosis was an independent predictor of both recent wheeze (OR 3.4; 95% CI 2.5 to 4.7) and asthma diagnosis (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.2), as was occupational exposure (wheeze: OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.0; asthma diagnosis: OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.4). Smoking was associated with wheeze but not asthma diagnosis. Obesity showed an association with wheeze only in younger women. Both wheeze and asthma diagnosis were more prevalent in those with less education but had no association with the asset index. Independently, having medical insurance was associated with a higher prevalence of diagnosis. Conclusions Some of the findings may be to due to reporting bias and heterogeneity of the categories wheeze and asthma diagnosis, which may overlap with post tuberculous airways obstruction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease due to smoking and occupational exposures. The results underline the importance of controlling tuberculosis and occupational exposures as well as smoking in reducing chronic respiratory morbidity. Validation of the asthma questionnaire in this setting and research into the pathophysiology of post tuberculous airways obstruction are also needed.

An observation about circular shortest paths: Dealing with additional constraints using branch and bound

Circular shortest paths represent a powerful methodology for image segmentation. The circularity condition ensures that the contour found by the algorithm is closed, a natural requirement for regular objects. Several implementations have been proposed in the past that either promise closure with high probability or ensure closure strictly, but with a mild computational efficiency handicap. Circularity can be viewed as a priori information that helps recover the correct object contour. Our "observation" is that circularity is only one among many possible constraints that can be imposed on shortest paths to guide them to a desirable solution. In this contribution, we illustrate this opportunity under a volume constraint but the concept is generally applicable. We also describe several adornments to the circular shortest path algorithm that proved useful in applications. © 2011 IEEE.

Feature selection using expected attainable discrimination

We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

A novel ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

Ambiguity validation as an important procedure of integer ambiguity resolution is to test the correctness of the fixed integer ambiguity of phase measurements before being used for positioning computation. Most existing investigations on ambiguity validation focus on test statistic. How to determine the threshold more reasonably is less understood, although it is one of the most important topics in ambiguity validation. Currently, there are two threshold determination methods in the ambiguity validation procedure: the empirical approach and the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacks of theoretical basis. The fixed failure rate approach has a rigorous probability theory basis, but it employs a more complicated procedure. This paper focuses on how to determine the threshold easily and reasonably. Both FF-ratio test and FF-difference test are investigated in this research and the extensive simulation results show that the FF-difference test can achieve comparable or even better performance than the well-known FF-ratio test. Another benefit of adopting the FF-difference test is that its threshold can be expressed as a function of integer least-squares (ILS) success rate with specified failure rate tolerance. Thus, a new threshold determination method named threshold function for the FF-difference test is proposed. The threshold function method preserves the fixed failure rate characteristic and is also easy-to-apply. The performance of the threshold function is validated with simulated data. The validation results show that with the threshold function method, the impact of the modelling error on the failure rate is less than 0.08%. Overall, the threshold function for the FF-difference test is a very promising threshold validation method and it makes the FF-approach applicable for the real-time GNSS positioning applications.

Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

Traffic safety at road-rail level crossings using a driving simulator and traffic simulation

A number of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) were used with an advanced driving simulator to assess its influence on driving behavior. Three types of ITS interventions namely, Video in-vehicle (ITS1), Audio in-vehicle (ITS2), and On-road flashing marker (ITS3) were tested. Then, the results from the driving simulator were used as inputs for a developed model using a traffic micro-simulation (Vissim 5.4) in order to assess the safety interventions. Using a driving simulator, 58 participants were required to drive through a number of active and passive crossings with and without an ITS device and in the presence or absence of an approaching train. The effect of driver behavior changing in terms of speed and compliance rate was greater at passive crossings than at active crossings. The difference in speed of drivers approaching ITS devices was very small which indicates that ITS helps drivers encounter the crossings in a safer way. Since the current traffic simulation was not able to replicate a dynamic speed change or a probability of stopping that varies based on different ITS safety devices, some modifications of the current traffic simulation were conducted. The results showed that exposure to ITS devices at active crossings did not influence the drivers’ behavior significantly according to the traffic performance indicators used, such as delay time, number of stops, speed, and stopped delay. On the other hand, the results of traffic simulation for passive crossings, where low traffic volumes and low train headway normally occur, showed that ITS devices improved overall traffic performance.

On the Security of Two RFID Mutual Authentication Protocols

In this paper, the security of two recent RFID mutual authentication protocols are investigated. The first protocol is a scheme proposed by Huang et al. [7] and the second one by Huang, Lin and Li [6]. We show that these two protocols have several weaknesses. In Huang et al.’s scheme, an adversary can determine the 32-bit secret password with a probability of 2−2 , and in Huang-Lin-Li scheme, a passive adversary can recognize a target tag with a success probability of 1−2−4 and an active adversary can determine all 32 bits of Access password with success probability of 2−4 . The computational complexity of these attacks is negligible.

How different are complications that affect the older adult inpatient?

Objective: The incidence and cost of complications occurring in older and younger inpatients were compared. Design: Secondary analysis of hospital-recorded diagnosis and costs for multiday-stay inpatients in 68 public hospitals in two Australian states. Main outcome measures: A complication is defined as a hospital-acquired diagnosis that required additional treatment. The Australian Classification of Hospital-Acquired Diagnoses system is used to identify these complications. Results: Inpatients aged >70 years have a 10.9% complication rate, which is not substantially different from the 10.89% complication rate found in patients aged <70 years. Examination of the probability by single years, however, showed that the peak incidence associated with the neonatal period and childbirth is balanced by rates of up to 20% in patients >80 years. Examining the adult patient population (40–70 years), we found that while some common complications are not age specific (electrolyte disorders and cardiac arrhythmias), others (urinary tract and lower respiratory tract infections) are more common in the older adult inpatient. Conclusion: For inpatients aged >70 years, the risks of complications increase. The incidence of hospital-acquired diagnoses in older adults differs significantly from incidence rates found in younger cohorts. Urinary tract infection and alteration to mental state are more common in older adult inpatients. Surprisingly, these complexities do not result in additional costs when compared with costs for the same complications in younger adults. Greater awareness of these differing patterns will allow patient safety efforts for older patients to focus on complications with the highest incidence and cost.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for hospital care in Iran : who is at risk of incurring catastrophic payments?

Since the beginning of 1980s, the Iranian health care system has undergone several reforms designed to increase accessibility of health services. Notwithstanding these reforms, out-of-pocket payments which create a barrier to access health services contribute almost half of total health are financing in Iran. This study aimed to provide a greater understanding about the inequality and determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and the related catastrophic expenditure (CE) for hospital services in Iran using a nationwide survey data, the 2003 Utilisation of Health Services Survey (UHSS). The concentration index and the Heckman selection model were used to assess inequality and factors associated with these expenditures. Inequality analysis suggests that the CE is concentrated among households in lower socioeconomic levels. The results of the Heckman selection model indicate that factors such as length of stay, admission to a hospital owned by private sector or Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and living in remote areas are positively associated with higher OOPE. Results of the ordered-probit selection model demonstrate that length of stay, lower household wealth index, and admission to a private hospital are major factors contributing to the increase in the probability of CE. Also, we find that households living in East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and Sistan and Balochestan face a higher level of CE. Based on our findings, the current employer-sponsored health insurance system does not offer equal protection against hospital expenditure in Iran. It seems that a single universal health insurance scheme that covers health services for all Iranian—regardless of their employment status—can better protect households from catastrophic health spending.