Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

Experimental evaluation of position control methods for hydraulic systems

Presents a unified and systematic assessment of ten position control strategies for a hydraulic servo system with single-ended cylinder driven by a proportional directional control valve. We aim at identifying those methods that achieve better tracking, have a low sensitivity to system uncertainties, and offer a good balance between development effort and end results. A formal approach for solving this problem relies on several practical metrics, which is introduced herein. Their choice is important, as the comparison results between controllers can vary significantly, depending on the selected criterion. Apart from the quantitative assessment, we also raise aspects which are difficult to quantify, but which must stay in attention when considering the position control problem for this class of hydraulic servo systems.

Probability based data analysis for road asset management

Road agencies require comprehensive, relevan and quality data describing their road assets to support their investment decisions. An investment decision support system for raod maintenance and rehabilitation mainly comprise three important supporting elements namely: road asset data, decision support tools and criteria for decision-making. Probability-based methods have played a crucial role in helping decision makers understand the relationship among road related data, asset performance and uncertainties in estimating budgets/costs for road management investment. This paper presents applications of the probability-bsed method for road asset management.

The patentability of non-physical inventions : lessons from the United States

Patent systems around the world are being pressed to recognise and protect challengingly new and exciting subject matter in order to keep pace with the rapid technological advancement of our age and the fact we are moving into the era of the ‘knowledge economy’. This rapid development and pressure to expand the bounds of what has traditionally been recognised as patentable subject matter has created uncertainty regarding what it is that the patent system is actually supposed to protect. Among other things, the patent system has had to contend with uncertainty surrounding claims to horticultural and agricultural methods, artificial living micro-organisms, methods of treating the human body, computer software and business methods. The contentious issue of the moment is one at whose heart lies the important distinction between what is a mere abstract idea and what is properly an invention deserving of the monopoly protection afforded by a patent. That question is whether purely intangible inventions, being methods that do not involve a physical aspect or effect or cause a physical transformation of matter, constitute patentable subject matter. This paper goes some way to addressing these uncertainties by considering how the Australian approach to the question can be informed by developments arising in the United States of America, and canvassing some of the possible lessons we in Australia might learn from the approaches taken thus far in the United States.

Output feedback control of discrete-time systems in networked environments

This correspondence paper addresses the problem of output feedback stabilization of control systems in networked environments with quality-of-service (QoS) constraints. The problem is investigated in discrete-time state space using Lyapunov’s stability theory and the linear inequality matrix technique. A new discrete-time modeling approach is developed to describe a networked control system (NCS) with parameter uncertainties and nonideal network QoS. It integrates a network-induced delay, packet dropout, and other network behaviors into a unified framework. With this modeling, an improved stability condition, which is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of the equivalent network-induced delay, is established for the NCS with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. It is further extended for the output feedback stabilization of the NCS with nonideal QoS. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the main results of the theoretical development.

A review of simulation models for railway systems

With the advances in computer hardware and software development techniques in the past 25 years, digital computer simulation of train movement and traction systems has been widely adopted as a standard computer-aided engineering tool [1] during the design and development stages of existing and new railway systems. Simulators of different approaches and scales are used extensively to investigate various kinds of system studies. Simulation is now proven to be the cheapest means to carry out performance predication and system behaviour characterisation. When computers were first used to study railway systems, they were mainly employed to perform repetitive but time-consuming computational tasks, such as matrix manipulations for power network solution and exhaustive searches for optimal braking trajectories. With only simple high-level programming languages available at the time, full advantage of the computing hardware could not be taken. Hence, structured simulations of the whole railway system were not very common. Most applications focused on isolated parts of the railway system. It is more appropriate to regard those applications as primarily mechanised calculations rather than simulations. However, a railway system consists of a number of subsystems, such as train movement, power supply and traction drives, which inevitably contains many complexities and diversities. These subsystems interact frequently with each other while the trains are moving; and they have their special features in different railway systems. To further complicate the simulation requirements, constraints like track geometry, speed restrictions and friction have to be considered, not to mention possible non-linearities and uncertainties in the system. In order to provide a comprehensive and accurate account of system behaviour through simulation, a large amount of data has to be organised systematically to ensure easy access and efficient representation; the interactions and relationships among the subsystems should be defined explicitly. These requirements call for sophisticated and effective simulation models for each component of the system. The software development techniques available nowadays allow the evolution of such simulation models. Not only can the applicability of the simulators be largely enhanced by advanced software design, maintainability and modularity for easy understanding and further development, and portability for various hardware platforms are also encouraged. The objective of this paper is to review the development of a number of approaches to simulation models. Attention is, in particular, given to models for train movement, power supply systems and traction drives. These models have been successfully used to enable various ‘what-if’ issues to be resolved effectively in a wide range of applications, such as speed profiles, energy consumption, run times etc.

Governing depression in law students and the shaping of legal personae

Since a recent Australian study found that university law students experience higher rates of depression than medical students and legal professionals (Kelk et al. 2009), the mental health of law students has increasingly become a target of government. To date, however, there has been no attempt to analyse these practices as an activity of government in advanced liberal societies. This paper addresses this imbalance by providing an initial analytics of the government of depression in law schools. It demonstrates how students are responsibilised to manage the risks and uncertainties of legal education by constructing resilient forms of personal and professional personae. It highlights that, in order to avoid depression, students are encouraged to shape not just their minds and bodies according to psychological and biomedical discourses, but are also to govern their ethical dispositions and become virtuous persons. This paper also argues that these forms of government are tied to advanced liberal forms of rule, as they position the law student as the locus of responsibility for depression, imply that depression is caused by an individual failing, and entrench students within responsibilising and entrepreneurial forms of subjectivity.

Entrepreneurial bricolage and firm performance : moderating effects of firm change and innovativeness

The behavioral theory of “entrepreneurial bricolage” attempts to understand what entrepreneurs do when faced with resource constraints. Prior research suggests that bricolage behaviors enable firms to “make do” through recombining existing resources and may assist in the development of firms that are better able to manage market uncertainties, survive and perhaps even flourish despite resource constraints. Using a new survey measure we further theorize and test the moderating effects of firm strategic change and innovativeness on bricolage and firm performance. Our findings suggest that changes in core elements of the business and degree of innovation reduce the positive effects of bricolage in young firm performance.

Robust tracking control of autonomous underwater vehicles in the presence of disturbance inputs

An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is expected to operate in an ocean in the presence of poorly known disturbance forces and moments. The uncertainties of the environment makes it difficult to apply open-loop control scheme for the motion planning of the vehicle. The objective of this paper is to develop a robust feedback trajectory tracking control scheme for an AUV that can track a prescribed trajectory amidst such disturbances. We solve a general problem of feedback trajectory tracking of an AUV in SE(3). The feedback control scheme is derived using Lyapunov-type analysis. The results obtained from numerical simulations confirm the asymptotic tracking properties of the feedback control law. We apply the feedback control scheme to different mission scenarios, with the disturbances being initial errors in the state of the AUV.

Local and global : cultural globalization, consumerism, and children's fiction

According to Zygmunt Bauman in Liquid Modernity (2000), the formerly solid and stable institutions of social life that characterised earlier stages of modernity have become fluid. He sees this as an outcome of the modernist project of progress itself, which in seeking to dismantle oppressive structures failed to reconstruct new roles for society, community and the individual. The un-tethering of social life from tradition in the latter stages of the twentieth century has produced unprecedented freedoms and unparalleled uncertainties, at least in the West. Although Bauman’s elaboration of some of the features and drivers of liquid modernity – increased mobility, rapid communications technologies, individualism – suggests it to be a neologism for globalisation, it is arguably also the context which has allowed this phenomenon to flourish. The qualities of fluidity, leakage, and flow that distinguish uncontained liquids also characterise globalisation, which encompasses a range of global trends and processes no longer confined to, or controlled by, the ‘container’ of the nation or state. The concept of liquid modernity helps to explain the conditions under which globalisation discourses have found a purchase and, by extension, the world in which contemporary children’s literature, media, and culture are produced. Perhaps more significantly, it points to the fluid conceptions of self and other that inform the ‘liquid’ worldview of the current generation of consumers of texts for children and young adults. This generation is growing up under the phase of globalisation we describe in this chapter.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Collaborative destination branding : planning for tourism development through design in the Waterfall Way, NSW, Australia

This thesis develops, applies and analyses a collaborative design methodology for branding a tourism destination. The area between the Northern Tablelands and the Mid-North Coast of New South Wales, Australia, was used as a case study for this research. The study applies theoretical concepts of systems thinking and complexity to the real world, and tests the use of design as a social tool to engage multiple stakeholders in planning. In this research I acknowledge that places (and destinations) are socially constructed through people's interactions with their physical and social environments. This study explores a methodology that is explicit about the uncertainties of the destination’s system, and that helps to elicit knowledge and system trends. The collective design process used the creation of brand concepts, elements and strategies as instruments to directly engage stakeholders in the process of reflecting about their places and the issues related to tourism activity in the region. The methods applied included individual conversations and collaborative design sessions to elicit knowledge from local stakeholders. Concept maps were used to register and interpret information released throughout the process. An important aspect of the methodology was to bring together different stakeholder groups and translate the information into a common language that was understandable by all participants. This work helped release significant information as to what kind of tourism activity local stakeholders are prepared to receive and support. It also helped the emergence of a more unified regional identity. The outcomes delivered by the project (brand, communication material and strategies) were of high quality and in line with the desires and expectation of the local hosts. The process also reinforced local sense of pride, belonging and conservation. Furthermore, interaction between participants from different parts of the region triggered some self organising activity around the brand they created together. A major contribution of the present work is the articulation of an inclusive methodology to facilitate the involvement of locals into the decision-making process related to tourism planning. Of particular significance is the focus on the social construction of meaning in and through design, showing that design exercises can have significant social impact – not only on the final product, but also on the realities of the people involved in the creative process.

Super-orbital re-entry in Australia : laboratory measurement, simulation and flight observation

There are large uncertainties in the aerothermodynamic modelling of super-orbital re-entry which impact the design of spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). Aspects of the thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry flows can be simulated in the laboratory using arc- and plasma jet facilities and these devices are regularly used for TPS certification work [5]. Another laboratory device which is capable of simulating certain critical features of both the aero and thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry is the expansion tube, and three such facilities have been operating at the University of Queensland in recent years[10]. Despite some success, wind tunnel tests do not achieve full simulation, however, a virtually complete physical simulation of particular re-entry conditions can be obtained from dedicated flight testing, and the Apollo era FIRE II flight experiment [2] is the premier example which still forms an important benchmark for modern simulations. Dedicated super-orbital flight testing is generally considered too expensive today, and there is a reluctance to incorporate substantial instrumentation for aerothermal diagnostics into existing missions since it may compromise primary mission objectives. An alternative approach to on-board flight measurements, with demonstrated success particularly in the ‘Stardust’ sample return mission, is remote observation of spectral emissions from the capsule and shock layer [8]. JAXA’s ‘Hayabusa’ sample return capsule provides a recent super-orbital reentry example through which we illustrate contributions in three areas: (1) physical simulation of super-orbital re-entry conditions in the laboratory; (2) computational simulation of such flows; and (3) remote acquisition of optical emissions from a super-orbital re entry event.