Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Modelling surface and shallow groundwater interactions in an ungauged subtropical coastal catchment using the SWAT model, Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland, Australia

The study presented here applies the highly parameterised semi-distributed U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to an Australian subtropical catchment. SWAT has been applied to numerous catchments worldwide and is considered to be a useful tool that is under ongoing development with contributions coming from different research groups in different parts of the world. In a preliminary run the SWAT model application for the Elimbah Creek catchment has estimated water yield for the catchment and has quantified the different sources. For the modelling period of April 1999 to September 2009 the results show that the main sources of water in Elimbah Creek are total surface runoff and lateral flow (65%). Base-flow contributes 36% to the total runoff. On a seasonal basis modelling results show a shift in the source of water contributing to Elimbah Creek from surface runoff and lateral flow during intense summer storms to base-flow conditions during dry months. Further calibration and validation of these results will confirm that SWAT provides an alternative to Australian water balance models.

‘Working with the team’ : an exploratory study of improved type 2 diabetes management in a new model of integrated primary/secondary care

This study aimed to explore how a new model of integrated primary/secondary care for type 2 diabetes management, the Brisbane South Complex Diabetes Service (BSCDS), related to improved diabetes management in a selected group of patients. We used a qualitative research design to obtain detailed accounts from the BSCDS via semi-structured interviews with 10 patients. The interviews were fully transcribed and systematically coded using a form of thematic analysis. Participants’ responses were grouped in relation to: (1) Patient-centred care; (2) Effective multiprofessional teamwork; and (3) Empowering patients. The key features of this integrated primary/secondary care model were accessibility and its delivery within a positive health care environment, clear and supportive interpersonal communication between patients and health care providers, and patients seeing themselves as being part of the team-based care. The BSCDS delivered patient-centred care and achieved patient engagement in ways that may have contributed to improved type 2 diabetes management in these participants.

A novel method for finding similarities between unordered trees using matrix data model

Trees are capable of portraying the semi-structured data which is common in web domain. Finding similarities between trees is mandatory for several applications that deal with semi-structured data. Existing similarity methods examine a pair of trees by comparing through nodes and paths of two trees, and find the similarity between them. However, these methods provide unfavorable results for unordered tree data and result in yielding NP-hard or MAX-SNP hard complexity. In this paper, we present a novel method that encodes a tree with an optimal traversing approach first, and then, utilizes it to model the tree with its equivalent matrix representation for finding similarity between unordered trees efficiently. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed method is able to achieve high accuracy even on the large data sets.

Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer

The effects of suspension parameters and driving conditions on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer are investigated in this study. A novel nonlinear model of a multi-axle semi-trailer with longitudinal-connected air suspensions is formulated based on fluid mechanics and thermodynamics and validated through test results. The effects of road surface conditions, driving speeds, air line inside diameter and connector inside diameter on dynamic load-sharing capability of the semi-trailer were analyzed in terms of load-sharing criteria. Simulation results indicate that, when larger air lines and connectors are employed, the DLSC (Dynamic Load-Sharing Coefficient) optimization ratio reaches its peak value when the road roughness is medium. The optimization ratio fluctuates in a complex manner as driving speed increases. The results also indicate that if the air line inside diameter is always assumed to be larger than the connector inside diameter, the influence of air line inside diameter on load-sharing is more significant than that of the connector inside diameter. The proposed approach can be used for further study of the influence of additional factors (such as vehicle load, static absolute air pressure and static height of air spring) on load-sharing and the control methods for multi-axle air suspensions with longitudinal air line.

A RBF meshless approach for modeling a fractal mobile/immobile transport model

A fractional differential equation is used to describe a fractal model of mobile/immobile transport with a power law memory function. This equation is the limiting equation that governs continuous time random walks with heavy tailed random waiting times. In this paper, we firstly propose a finite difference method to discretize the time variable and obtain a semi-discrete scheme. Then we discuss its stability and convergence. Secondly we consider a meshless method based on radial basis functions (RBFs) to discretize the space variable. In contrast to conventional FDM and FEM, the meshless method is demonstrated to have distinct advantages: calculations can be performed independent of a mesh, it is more accurate and it can be used to solve complex problems. Finally the convergence order is verified from a numerical example which is presented to describe a fractal model of mobile/immobile transport process with different problem domains. The numerical results indicate that the present meshless approach is very effective for modeling and simulating fractional differential equations, and it has good potential in the development of a robust simulation tool for problems in engineering and science that are governed by various types of fractional differential equations.

A comparative study of the semi-elastic and fully-elastic MapReduce models

MapReduce is a computation model for processing large data sets in parallel on large clusters of machines, in a reliable, fault-tolerant manner. A MapReduce computation is broken down into a number of map tasks and reduce tasks, which are performed by so called mappers and reducers, respectively. The placement of the mappers and reducers on the machines directly affects the performance and cost of the MapReduce computation in cloud computing. From the computational point of view, the mappers/reducers placement problem is a generation of the classical bin packing problem, which is NP-complete. Thus, in this paper we propose a new heuristic algorithm for the mappers/reducers placement problem in cloud computing and evaluate it by comparing with other several heuristics on solution quality and computation time by solving a set of test problems with various characteristics. The computational results show that our heuristic algorithm is much more efficient than the other heuristics and it can obtain a better solution in a reasonable time. Furthermore, we verify the effectiveness of our heuristic algorithm by comparing the mapper/reducer placement for a benchmark problem generated by our heuristic algorithm with a conventional mapper/reducer placement which puts a fixed number of mapper/reducer on each machine. The comparison results show that the computation using our mapper/reducer placement is much cheaper than the computation using the conventional placement while still satisfying the computation deadline.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.

Reversible and semi-blind relational database watermarking

Database watermarking has received significant research attention in the current decade. Although, almost all watermarking models have been either irreversible (the original relation cannot be restored from the watermarked relation) and/or non-blind (requiring original relation to detect the watermark in watermarked relation). This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and original relation is restored) including inability to identify rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, inability to revert the relation to original data set (required in high precision industries) and requirement to store unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store original database at a secure secondary storage.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

Untangling the evidence : introducing an empirical model for evidence-based library and information practice

Introduction This research is the first to investigate the experiences of teacher-librarians as evidence-based practice. An empirically derived model is presented in this paper. Method This qualitative study utilised the expanded critical incident approach, and investigated the real-life experiences of fifteen Australian teacher-librarians, through semi-structured interviews and inductive data analysis. Data collection utilised semi-structured interviews, on-site observations, journaling and the rubric for contextual information. These approaches allowed each of the interviewees to tell their own story and provided richness to the data. Analysis The analysis involved two types of data categorisation: binary and thematic. Binary classification was used to identify factual details. Thematic analysis involved categorising the emerging themes. Results An empirically derived model for evidence-based practice was devised and associated critical findings identified. The results demonstrate that evidence-based practice for teacher-librarians is a holistic practice. It is not a linear, step-by-step process. Conclusions This study is significant for teacher-librarians and library and information professionals as it provides new understanding of evidence-based practice.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Toward a model for predicting magnetic susceptibility of bedrock regolith and soils

One of the Department of Defense's most pressing environmental problems is the efficient detection and identification of unexploded ordnance (UXO). In regions of highly magnetic soils, magnetic and electromagnetic sensors often detect anomalies that are of geologic origin, adding significantly to remediation costs. In order to develop predictive models for magnetic susceptibility, it is crucial to understand modes of formation and the spatial distribution of different iron oxides. Most rock types contain iron and their magnetic susceptibility is determined by the amount and form of iron oxides present. When rocks weather, the amount and form of the oxides change, producing concomitant changes in magnetic susceptibility. The type of iron oxide found in the weathered rock or regolith is a function of the duration and intensity of weathering, as well as the original content of iron in the parent material. The rate of weathering is controlled by rainfall and temperature; thus knowing the climate zone, the amount of iron in the lithology and the age of the surface will help predict the amount and forms of iron oxide. We have compiled analyses of the types, amounts, and magnetic properties of iron oxides from soils over a wide climate range, from semi arid grasslands, to temperate regions, and tropical forests. We find there is a predictable range of iron oxide type and magnetic susceptibility according to the climate zone, the age of the soil and the amount of iron in the unweathered regolith.

Experiencing information use for early career academics’ learning: A knowledge ecosystem model

Purpose This study explores the informed learning experiences of early career academics while building their networks for professional and personal development. The notion that information and learning are inextricably linked via the concept of ‘informed learning’ is used as a conceptual framework to gain a clearer picture of what informs early career academics while they learn and how they experience using that which informs their learning within this complex practice: to build, maintain and utilise their developmental networks. Methodology This research employs a qualitative framework using a constructivist grounded theory approach (Charmaz, 2006). Through semi-structured interviews with a sample of fourteen early career academics from across two Australian universities, data were generated to investigate the research questions. The study used the methods of constant comparison to create codes and categories towards theme development. Further examination considered the relationship between thematic categories to construct an original theoretical model. Findings The model presented is a ‘knowledge ecosystem’, which represents the core informed learning experience. The model consists of informal learning interactions such as relating to information to create knowledge and engaging in mutually supportive relationships with a variety of knowledge resources found in people who assist in early career development. Originality/Value Findings from this study present an alternative interpretation of informed learning that is focused on processes manifesting as human interactions with informing entities revolving around the contexts of reciprocal human relationships.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.