How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Impact of music therapy to promote positive parenting and child development

The effectiveness of a 10-week group music therapy program for marginalized parents and their children aged 0–5 years was examined. Musical activities were used to promote positive parent–child relationships and children’s behavioral, communicative and social development. Participants were 358 parents and children from families facing social disadvantage, young parents or parents of a child with a disability. Significant improvements were found for therapist-observed parent and child behaviors, and parent-reported irritable parenting, educational activities in the home, parent mental health and child communication and social play skills. This study provides evidence of the potential effectiveness of music therapy for early intervention.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

'Black is beautiful', and Indigenous : Aboriginal authorship in Australian popular music

The ‘black is beautiful’ movement began in the United States in the early sixties, and changed mainstream attitudes towards the body, fashion and personal aesthetics, gaining African American people a new sense of pride in being – and being called – ‘black’. In Australia the movement also had implications for changing the political meanings of ‘black’ in white society. However, it is not until the last decade, through the global influence of Afro-American music, that a distinctly Indigenous sense of black sexiness has captured the attention of mainstream audiences. The article examines such recent developments, and suggests that, through the appropriation of Afro-American aesthetics and styles, Indigenous producers and performers have developed new forms of Indigenous public agency, demonstrating that black is beautiful, and Indigenous.

How can entrepreneurial musicians use electronic social networks to diffuse their music

Principal Topic: ''In less than ten years music labels will not exist anymore.'' Michael Smelli, former Global COO Sony/BMG MCA/QUT IMP Business Lab Digital Music Think Thanks 9 May 2009, Brisbane Big music labels such as EMI, Sony BMG and UMG have been responsible for promoting and producing a myriad of stars in the music industry over the last decades. However, the industry structure is under enormous threat with the emergence of a new innovative era of digital music. Recent years have seen a dramatic shift in industry power with the emergence of Napster and other file sharing sites, iTunes and other online stores, iPod and the MP3 revolution. Myspace.com and other social networking sites are connecting entrepreneurial artists with fans and creating online music communities independent of music labels. In 2008 the digital music business internationally grew by around 25% to 3.7 Billion US-Dollar. Digital platforms now account for around 20% of recorded music sales, up from 15 % in 2007 (IFPI Digital music report 2009). CD sales have fallen by 40% since their peak levels. Global digital music sales totalled an estimated US$ 3 Billion in 2007, an increase of 40% on 2006 figures. Digital sales account for an estimated 15% of global market, up from 11% in 2006 and zero in 2003. The music industry is more advanced in terms of digital revenues than any other creative or entertainment industry (except games). Its digital share is more than twice that of newspapers (7%), films (35) or books (2%). All these shifts present new possibilities for music entrepreneurs to act entrepreneurially and promote their music independently of the major music labels. Diffusion of innovations has a long tradition in both sociology (e.g. Rogers 1962, 2003) and marketing (Bass 1969, Mahajan et al., 1990). The context of the current project is theoretically interesting in two respects. First, the role of online social networks replaces traditional face-to-face word of mouth communications. Second, as music is a hedonistic product, this strongly influences the nature of interpersonal communications and their diffusion patterns. Both of these have received very little attention in the diffusion literature to date, and no studies have investigated the influence of both simultaneously. This research project is concerned with the role of social networks in this new music industry landscape, and how this may be leveraged by musicians willing to act entrepreneurially. Our key research question we intend to address is: How do online social network communities impact the nature, pattern and speed that music diffuses? Methodology/Key Propositions : We expect the nature/ character of diffusion of popular, generic music genres to be different from specialized, niche music. To date, only Moe & Fader (2002) and Lee et al. (2003) investigated diffusion patterns of music and these focus on forecast weekly sales of music CDs based on the advance purchase orders before the launch, rather than taking a detailed look at diffusion patterns. Consequently, our first research questions are concerned with understanding the nature of online communications within the context of diffusion of music and artists. Hence, we have the following research questions: RQ1: What is the nature of fan-to-fan ''word of mouth'' online communications for music? Do these vary by type of artist and genre of music? RQ2: What is the nature of artist-to-fan online communications for music? Do these vary by type of artist and genre of music? What types of communication are effective? Two outcomes from research social network theory are particularly relevant to understanding how music might diffuse through social networks. Weak tie theory (Granovetter, 1973), argues that casual or infrequent contacts within a social network (or weak ties) act as a link to unique information which is not normally contained within an entrepreneurs inner circle (or strong tie) social network. A related argument, structural hole theory (Burt, 1992), posits that it is the absence of direct links (or structural holes) between members of a social network which offers similar informational benefits. Although these two theories argue for the information benefits of casual linkages, and diversity within a social network, others acknowledge that a balanced network which consists of a mix of strong ties, weak ties is perhaps more important overall (Uzzi, 1996). It is anticipated that the network structure of the fan base for different types of artists and genres of music will vary considerably. This leads to our third research question: RQ3: How does the network structure of online social network communities impact the pattern and speed that music diffuses? The current paper is best described as theory elaboration. It will report the first exploratory phase designed to develop and elaborate relevant theory (the second phase will be a quantitative study of network structure and diffusion). We intend to develop specific research propositions or hypotheses from the above research questions. To do so we will conduct three focus group discussions of independent musicians and three focus group discussions of fans active in online music communication on social network sites. We will also conduct five case studies of bands that have successfully built fan bases through social networking sites (e.g. myspace.com, facebook.com). The idea is to identify which communication channels they employ and the characteristics of the fan interactions for different genres of music. We intend to conduct interviews with each of the artists and analyse their online interaction with their fans. Results and Implications : At the current stage, we have just begun to conduct focus group discussions. An analysis of the themes from these focus groups will enable us to further refine our research questions into testable hypotheses. Ultimately, our research will provide a better understanding of how social networks promote the diffusion of music, and how this varies for different genres of music. Hence, some music entrepreneurs will be able to promote their music more effectively. The results may be further generalised to other industries where online peer-to-peer communication is common, such as other forms of entertainment and consumer technologies.

Sounds from the empty city : a practice-led case study in the confluence of music, narrative and emotion

The creative practice: the adaptation of picture book The Empty City (Megarrity/Oxlade, Hachette 2007) into an innovative, interdisciplinary performance for children which combines live performance, music, projected animation and performing objects. The researcher, in the combined roles of writer/composer proposes deliberate experiments in music, narrative and emotion in the various drafts of the adaptation, and tests them in process and performance product. A particular method of composing music for live performance is tested in against the emergent needs of a collaborative, intermedial process. The unpredictable site of research means that this project is both looking to address both pre-determined and emerging points of inquiry. This analysis (directed by audience reception) finds that critical incidents of intermediality between music, narrative, action and emotion translate directly into highlights of the performance.

Music, media and making : humanising digital media in music education

This paper examines three functions of music technology in the study of music. Firstly, as a tool, secondly, as an instrument and, lastly, as a medium for thinking. As our societies become increasingly embroiled in digital media for representation and communication, our philosophies of music education need to adapt to integrate these developments while maintaining the essence of music. The foundation of music technology in the 1990s is the digital representation of sound. It is this fundamental shift to a new medium with which to represent sound that carries with it the challenge to address digital technology and its multiple effects on music creation and presentation. In this paper I suggest that music institutions should take a broad and integrated approach to the place of music technology in their courses, based on the understanding of digital representation of sound and these three functions it can serve. Educators should reconsider digital technologies such as synthesizers and computers as music instruments and cognitive amplifiers, not simply as efficient tools.

Network jamming : distributed performance using generative music

Generative music systems can be performed by manipulating the values of their algorithmic parameters, and their semi-autonomous nature provides an opportunity for coordinated interaction amongst a network of systems, a practice we call Network Jamming. This paper outlines the characteristics of this networked performance practice and discusses the types of mediated musical relationships and ensemble configurations that can arise. We have developed and tested the jam2jam network jamming software over recent years. We describe this system, draw from our experiences with it, and use it to illustrate some characteristics of Network Jamming.

Fixing the volatile : studio vocal performance techniques

The process of compiling a studio vocal performance from many takes can often result in the performer producing a new complete performance once this new "best of" assemblage is heard back. This paper investigates the ways that the physical process of recording can alter vocal performance techniques, and in particular, the establishing of a definitive melodic and rhythmic structure. Drawing on his many years of experience as a commercially successful producer, including the attainment of a Grammy award, the author will analyse the process of producing a “credible” vocal performance in depth, with specific case studies and examples. The question of authenticity in rock and pop will also be discussed and, in this context, the uniqueness of the producer’s role as critical arbiter – what gives the producer the authority to make such performance evaluations? Techniques for creating conditions in the studio that are conducive to vocal performances, in many ways a very unnatural performance environment, will be discussed, touching on areas such as the psycho-acoustic properties of headphone mixes, the avoidance of intimidatory practices, and a methodology for inducing the perception of a “familiar” acoustic environment.

Interrogating statistical models of music perception

We have developed a new experimental method for interrogating statistical theories of music perception by implementing these theories as generative music algorithms. We call this method Generation in Context. This method differs from most experimental techniques in music perception in that it incorporates aesthetic judgments. Generation In Context is designed to measure percepts for which the musical context is suspected to play an important role. In particular the method is suitable for the study of perceptual parameters which are temporally dynamic. We outline a use of this approach to investigate David Temperley’s (2007) probabilistic melody model, and provide some provisional insights as to what is revealed about the model. We suggest that Temperley’s model could be improved by dynamically modulating the probability distributions according to the changing musical context.

Capital music : personal expression with a public display of song choice

Using information and communication technology devices in public urban places can help to create a personalised space. Looking at a mobile phone screen or listening to music on an MP3 player is a common practice avoiding direct contact with others e.g. whilst using public transport. However, such devices can also be utilised to explore how to build new meaningful connections with the urban space and the collocated people within. We present findings of work-in-progress on Capital Music, a mobile application enabling urban dwellers to listen to music songs as usual, but also allowing them to announce song titles and discover songs currently being listened to by other people in the vicinity. We study the ways that this tool can change or even enhance people’s experience of public urban spaces. Our first user study also found changes in choosing different songs. Anonymous social interactions based on users’ music selection are implemented in the first iteration of the prototype that we studied.