Pollutant characteristics on roof surfaces for evaluation as a stormwater harvesting catchment

This paper presents the outcomes of a study which focused on evaluating roof surfaces as stormwater harvesting catchments. Build-up and wash-off samples were collected from model roof surfaces. The collected build-up samples were separated into five different particle size ranges prior to the analysis of physico-chemical parameters. Study outcomes showed that roof surfaces are efficient catchment surfaces for the deposition of fine particles which travel over long distances. Roof surfaces contribute relatively high pollutant loads to the runoff and hence significantly influence the quality of the harvested rainwater. Pollutants associated with solids build-up on roof surfaces can vary with time, even with minimal changes to total solids load and particle size distribution. It is postulated that this variability is due to changes in distant atmospheric pollutant sources and wind patterns. The study highlighted the requirement for first flush devices to divert the highly polluted initial portion of roof runoff. Furthermore, it is highly recommended to not to harvest runoff from small intensity rainfall events since there is a high possibility that the runoff would contain a significant amount of pollutants even after the initial runoff fraction.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 2 development of a port specific water quality model

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement, where necessary. To this end, the Port of Brisbane Corporation aimed to develop a port specific stormwater model for the Fisherman Islands facility. The need has to be considered in the context of the proposed future developments of the Port area. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is that it seeks to undertake research to assist the Port in strengthening the environmental custodianship of the Port area through ‘cutting edge’ research and its translation into practical application. ------------------ The project was separated into two stages. The first stage developed a quantitative understanding of the generation potential of pollutant loads in the existing land uses. This knowledge was then used as input for the stormwater quality model developed in the subsequent stage. The aim is to expand this model across the yet to be developed port expansion area. This is in order to predict pollutant loads associated with stormwater flows from this area with the longer term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. ----------------- Study approach: Stage 1 of the overall study confirmed that Port land uses are unique in terms of the anthropogenic activities occurring on them. This uniqueness in land use results in distinctive stormwater quality characteristics different to other conventional urban land uses. Therefore, it was not scientifically valid to consider the Port as belonging to a single land use category or to consider as being similar to any typical urban land use. The approach adopted in this study was very different to conventional modelling studies where modelling parameters are developed using calibration. The field investigations undertaken in Stage 1 of the overall study helped to create fundamental knowledge on pollutant build-up and wash-off in different Port land uses. This knowledge was then used in computer modelling so that the specific characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off can be replicated. This meant that no calibration processes were involved due to the use of measured parameters for build-up and wash-off. ---------------- Conclusions: Stage 2 of the study was primarily undertaken using the SWMM stormwater quality model. It is a physically based model which replicates natural processes as closely as possible. The time step used and catchment variability considered was adequate to accommodate the temporal and spatial variability of input parameters and the parameters used in the modelling reflect the true nature of rainfall-runoff and pollutant processes to the best of currently available knowledge. In this study, the initial loss values adopted for the impervious surfaces are relatively high compared to values noted in research literature. However, given the scientifically valid approach used for the field investigations, it is appropriate to adopt the initial losses derived from this study for future modelling of Port land uses. The relatively high initial losses will reduce the runoff volume generated as well as the frequency of runoff events significantly. Apart from initial losses, most of the other parameters used in SWMM modelling are generic to most modelling studies. Development of parameters for MUSIC model source nodes was one of the primary objectives of this study. MUSIC, uses the mean and standard deviation of pollutant parameters based on a normal distribution. However, based on the values generated in this study, the variation of Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for Port land uses within the given investigation period does not fit a normal distribution. This is possibly due to the fact that only one specific location was considered, namely the Port of Brisbane unlike in the case of the MUSIC model where a range of areas with different geographic and climatic conditions were investigated. Consequently, the assumptions used in MUSIC are not totally applicable for the analysis of water quality in Port land uses. Therefore, in using the parameters included in this report for MUSIC modelling, it is important to note that it may result in under or over estimations of annual pollutant loads. It is recommended that the annual pollutant load values given in the report should be used as a guide to assess the accuracy of the modelling outcomes. A step by step guide for using the knowledge generated from this study for MUSIC modelling is given in Table 4.6. ------------------ Recommendations: The following recommendations are provided to further strengthen the cutting edge nature of the work undertaken: * It is important to further validate the approach recommended for stormwater quality modelling at the Port. Validation will require data collection in relation to rainfall, runoff and water quality from the selected Port land uses. Additionally, the recommended modelling approach could be applied to a soon-to-be-developed area to assess ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios. * In the modelling study, TSS was adopted as the surrogate parameter for other pollutants. This approach was based on other urban water quality research undertaken at QUT. The validity of this approach should be further assessed for Port land uses. * The adoption of TSS as a surrogate parameter for other pollutants and the confirmation that the <150 m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant wash-off gives rise to a number of important considerations. The ability of the existing structural stormwater mitigation measures to remove the <150 m particle size range need to be assessed. The feasibility of introducing source control measures as opposed to end-of-pipe measures for stormwater quality improvement may also need to be considered.

Theory of radar imaging using time-frequency distribution

The concept of radar was developed for the estimation of the distance (range) and velocity of a target from a receiver. The distance measurement is obtained by measuring the time taken for the transmitted signal to propagate to the target and return to the receiver. The target's velocity is determined by measuring the Doppler induced frequency shift of the returned signal caused by the rate of change of the time- delay from the target. As researchers further developed conventional radar systems it become apparent that additional information was contained in the backscattered signal and that this information could in fact be used to describe the shape of the target itself. It is due to the fact that a target can be considered to be a collection of individual point scatterers, each of which has its own velocity and time- delay. DelayDoppler parameter estimation of each of these point scatterers thus corresponds to a mapping of the target's range and cross range, thus producing an image of the target. Much research has been done in this area since the early radar imaging work of the 1960s. At present there are two main categories into which radar imaging falls. The first of these is related to the case where the backscattered signal is considered to be deterministic. The second is related to the case where the backscattered signal is of a stochastic nature. In both cases the information which describes the target's scattering function is extracted by the use of the ambiguity function, a function which correlates the backscattered signal in time and frequency with the transmitted signal. In practical situations, it is often necessary to have the transmitter and the receiver of the radar system sited at different locations. The problem in these situations is 'that a reference signal must then be present in order to calculate the ambiguity function. This causes an additional problem in that detailed phase information about the transmitted signal is then required at the receiver. It is this latter problem which has led to the investigation of radar imaging using time- frequency distributions. As will be shown in this thesis, the phase information about the transmitted signal can be extracted from the backscattered signal using time- frequency distributions. The principle aim of this thesis was in the development, and subsequent discussion into the theory of radar imaging, using time- frequency distributions. Consideration is first given to the case where the target is diffuse, ie. where the backscattered signal has temporal stationarity and a spatially white power spectral density. The complementary situation is also investigated, ie. where the target is no longer diffuse, but some degree of correlation exists between the time- frequency points. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the concepts and theories developed in the thesis. For the proposed radar system to be practically realisable, both the time- frequency distributions and the associated algorithms developed must be able to be implemented in a timely manner. For this reason an optical architecture is proposed. This architecture is specifically designed to obtain the required time and frequency resolution when using laser radar imaging. The complex light amplitude distributions produced by this architecture have been computer simulated using an optical compiler.

A multivariate approach to the identification of surrogate parameters for heavy metals in stormwater

Stormwater is a potential and readily available alternative source for potable water in urban areas. However, its direct use is severely constrained by the presence of toxic pollutants, such as heavy metals (HMs). The presence of HMs in stormwater is of concern because of their chronic toxicity and persistent nature. In addition to human health impacts, metals can contribute to adverse ecosystem health impact on receiving waters. Therefore, the ability to predict the levels of HMs in stormwater is crucial for monitoring stormwater quality and for the design of effective treatment systems. Unfortunately, the current laboratory methods for determining HM concentrations are resource intensive and time consuming. In this paper, applications of multivariate data analysis techniques are presented to identify potential surrogate parameters which can be used to determine HM concentrations in stormwater. Accordingly, partial least squares was applied to identify a suite of physicochemical parameters which can serve as indicators of HMs. Datasets having varied characteristics, such as land use and particle size distribution of solids, were analyzed to validate the efficacy of the influencing parameters. Iron, manganese, total organic carbon, and inorganic carbon were identified as the predominant parameters that correlate with the HM concentrations. The practical extension of the study outcomes to urban stormwater management is also discussed.

Changes in the site distribution of common melanoma subtypes in Queensland, Australia over time: implications for public health campaigns

Abstract BACKGROUND: An examination of melanoma incidence according to anatomical region may be one method of monitoring the impact of public health initiatives. OBJECTIVES:   To examine melanoma incidence trends by body site, sex and age at diagnosis or body site and morphology in a population at high risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS:   Population-based data on invasive melanoma cases (n = 51473) diagnosed between 1982 and 2008 were extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the direct method (2000 world standard population) and joinpoint regression models were used to fit trend lines. RESULTS:   Significantly decreasing trends for melanomas on the trunk and upper limbs/shoulders were observed during recent years for both sexes under the age of 40 years and among males aged 40-59years. However, in the 60 and over age group, the incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase at all sites (apart from the trunk) for males and on the scalp/neck and upper limbs/shoulders for females. Rates of nodular melanoma are currently decreasing on the trunk and lower limbs. In contrast, superficial spreading melanoma is significantly increasing on the scalp/neck and lower limbs, along with substantial increases in lentigo maligna melanoma since the late 1990s at all sites apart from the lower limbs. CONCLUSIONS:   In this large study we have observed significant decreases in rates of invasive melanoma in the younger age groups on less frequently exposed body sites. These results may provide some indirect evidence of the impact of long-running primary prevention campaigns.

A novel real time pricing scheme for demand response in residential distribution systems

Price based technique is one way to handle increase in peak demand and deal with voltage violations in residential distribution systems. This paper proposes an improved real time pricing scheme for residential customers with demand response option. Smart meters and in-home display units are used to broadcast the price and appropriate load adjustment signals. Customers are given an opportunity to respond to the signals and adjust the loads. This scheme helps distribution companies to deal with overloading problems and voltage issues in a more efficient way. Also, variations in wholesale electricity prices are passed on to electricity customers to take collective measure to reduce network peak demand. It is ensured that both customers and utility are benefitted by this scheme.

The time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation to stabilise: An investigation using electrical impedance tomography

Electrical impedance tomography is a novel technology capable of quantifying ventilation distribution in the lung in real time during various therapeutic manoeuvres. The technique requires changes to the patient’s position to place the electrical impedance tomography electrodes circumferentially around the thorax. The impact of these position changes on the time taken to stabilise the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography is unknown. This study aimed to determine the time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography to stabilise after changing position. Eight healthy, male volunteers were connected to electrical impedance tomography and a pneumotachometer. After 30 minutes stabilisation supine, participants were moved into 60 degrees Fowler’s position and then returned to supine. Thirty minutes was spent in each position. Concurrent readings of ventilation distribution and tidal volumes were taken every five minutes. A mixed regression model with a random intercept was used to compare the positions and changes over time. The anterior-posterior distribution stabilised after ten minutes in Fowler’s position and ten minutes after returning to supine. Left-right stabilisation was achieved after 15 minutes in Fowler’s position and supine. A minimum of 15 minutes of stabilisation should be allowed for spontaneously breathing individuals when assessing ventilation distribution. This time allows stabilisation to occur in the anterior-posterior direction as well as the left-right direction.

Distribution of respiratory droplets in enclosed environments under different air distribution methods

Dispersion characteristics of respiratory droplets in indoor environments are of special interest in controlling transmission of airborne diseases. This study adopts an Eulerian method to investigate the spatial concentration distribution and temporal evolution of exhaled and sneezed/coughed droplets within the range of 1.0~10.0μm in an office room with three air distribution methods, i.e. mixing ventilation (MV), displacement ventilation (DV), and under-floor air distribution (UFAD). The diffusion, gravitational settling, and deposition mechanism of particulate matters are well accounted in the one-way coupling Eulerian approach. The simulation results find that exhaled droplets with diameters up to 10.0μm from normal respiration process are uniformly distributed in MV, while they are trapped in the breathing height by thermal stratifications in DV and UFAD, resulting in a high droplet concentration and a high exposure risk to other occupants. Sneezed/coughed droplets are diluted much slower in DV/UFAD than in MV. Low air speed in the breathing zone in DV/UFAD can lead to prolonged residence of droplets in the breathing zone.

Application of bag sampling technique for particle size distribution measurements

Bag sampling techniques can be used to temporarily store an aerosol and therefore provide sufficient time to utilize sensitive but slow instrumental techniques for recording detailed particle size distributions. Laboratory based assessment of the method were conducted to examine size dependant deposition loss coefficients for aerosols held in VelostatTM bags conforming to a horizontal cylindrical geometry. Deposition losses of NaCl particles in the range of 10 nm to 160 nm were analysed in relation to the bag size, storage time, and sampling flow rate. Results of this study suggest that the bag sampling method is most useful for moderately short sampling periods of about 5 minutes.

Transportation disadvantage determination framework : space-time organisation measure in determining transportation disadvantage

Transportation disadvantage has been recognised to be the key source of social exclusion. Therefore an appropriate process is required to investigate and seek to resolve this problem. Currently, determination of Transportation Disadvantage is postulate based on income, poverty and mobility level. Transportation disadvantage may best regard be based on accessibility perspectives as they represent inability of the individual to access desired activities. This paper attempts to justify a process in determining transportation disadvantage by incorporating accessibility and social transporation conflict as the essence of a framework. The framework embeds space time organisation within the dimension of accessibility to identify a rigorous definition of transportation disadvantage. In developing the framework, the definition, dimension, component and measure of accessibility were scrutinised. The findings suggest the definition and dimension are the significant approach of research to evaluate travel experience of the disadvantaged. Concurrently, location accessibility measures will be incorprated to strenghten the determination of accessibility level. Literature review in social exclusion and mobility-related exclusion identified the dimension and source of transportation disadvantage. It was revealed that the appropriate approach to justify trasnportation disadvantaged is to incorporate space-time organisation within the studied components. The suggested framework is an inter-related process consisting of component of accessibility; individual, networking (transport system) and activities (destination). The integration and correlation among the components shall determine the level of transportation disadvantage. Prior findings are used to retrieve the spatial distribution of transportation disadvantaged and appropriate policies are developed to resolve the problems.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Health, endogenous time preference, and inequality : a political economy perspective

We study an overlapping-generations model in which agents' mortality risks, and consequently impatience, are endogenously determined by private and public investment in health care. Revenues allocated for public health care arc determined by a voting process. We find that the degree of substitutability between public and private health expenditures matters for macroeconomic outcomes of the model. Higher substitutability implies a “crowding-out" effect, which in turn impacts adversely on morality risks and impatience leading to lower public expenditures on health care in the political equilibrium. Consequently, higher substitutability is associated with greater polarization in wealth, and long-run distributions that are bimodal.

Rethinking genre studies through distribution analysis : issues in international horror movie circuits

The existence of any film genre depends on the effective operation of distribution networks. Contingencies of distribution play an important role in determining the content of individual texts and the characteristics of film genres; they enable new genres to emerge at the same time as they impose limits on generic change. This article sets out an alternative way of doing genre studies, based on an analysis of distributive circuits rather than film texts or generic categories. Our objective is to provide a conceptual framework that can account for the multiple ways in which distribution networks leave their traces on film texts and audience expectations, with specific reference to international horror networks, and to offer some preliminary suggestions as to how distribution analysis can be integrated into existing genre studies methodologies.