The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Cost-effectiveness of a central venous catheter care bundle

Background: A bundled approach to central venous catheter care is currently being promoted as an effective way of preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). Consumables used in the bundled approach are relatively inexpensive which may lead to the conclusion that the bundle is cost-effective. However, this fails to consider the nontrivial costs of the monitoring and education activities required to implement the bundle, or that alternative strategies are available to prevent CR-BSI. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a bundle to prevent CR-BSI in Australian intensive care patients. ---------- Methods and Findings: A Markov decision model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the bundle relative to remaining with current practice (a non-bundled approach to catheter care and uncoated catheters), or use of antimicrobial catheters. We assumed the bundle reduced relative risk of CR-BSI to 0.34. Given uncertainty about the cost of the bundle, threshold analyses were used to determine the maximum cost at which the bundle remained cost-effective relative to the other approaches to infection control. Sensitivity analyses explored how this threshold alters under different assumptions about the economic value placed on bed-days and health benefits gained by preventing infection. If clinicians are prepared to use antimicrobial catheters, the bundle is cost-effective if national 18-month implementation costs are below $1.1 million. If antimicrobial catheters are not an option the bundle must cost less than $4.3 million. If decision makers are only interested in obtaining cash-savings for the unit, and place no economic value on either the bed-days or the health benefits gained through preventing infection, these cost thresholds are reduced by two-thirds.---------- Conclusions: A catheter care bundle has the potential to be cost-effective in the Australian intensive care setting. Rather than anticipating cash-savings from this intervention, decision makers must be prepared to invest resources in infection control to see efficiency improvements.

Spatial distribution of suicide in Queensland, Australia

Background: There has been a lack of investigation into the spatial distribution and clustering of suicide in Australia, where the population density is lower than many countries and varies dramatically among urban, rural and remote areas. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution of suicide at a Local Governmental Area (LGA) level and identify the LGAs with a high relative risk of suicide in Queensland, Australia, using geographical information system (GIS) techniques.---------- Methods: Data on suicide and demographic variables in each LGA between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. An age standardised mortality (ASM) rate for suicide was calculated at the LGA level. GIS techniques were used to examine the geographical difference of suicide across different areas.---------- Results: Far north and north-eastern Queensland (i.e., Cook and Mornington Shires) had the highest suicide incidence in both genders, while the south-western areas (i.e., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) had the lowest incidence in both genders. In different age groups (≤24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and ≥65 years), ASM rates of suicide varied with gender at the LGA level. Mornington and six other LGAs with low socioeconomic status in the upper Southeast had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk.---------- Conclusions: There was a notable difference in ASM rates of suicide at the LGA level in Queensland. Some LGAs had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk. The determinants of the geographical difference of suicide should be addressed in future research.

Motorcycle protective clothing : protection from injury or just the weather?

Background Apart from helmets, little is known about the effectiveness of motorcycle protective clothing in reducing injuries in crashes. The study aimed to quantify the association between usage of motorcycle clothing and injury in crashes. Methods and findings Cross-sectional analytic study. Crashed motorcyclists (n = 212, 71% of identified eligible cases) were recruited through hospitals and motorcycle repair services. Data was obtained through structured face-to-face interviews. The main outcome was hospitalization and motorcycle crash-related injury. Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for injury adjusting for potential confounders. Results Motorcyclists were significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital if they crashed wearing motorcycle jackets (RR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69–0.91), pants (RR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.25–0.94), or gloves (RR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.26–0.66). When garments included fitted body armour there was a significantly reduced risk of injury to the upper body (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66–0.89), hands and wrists (RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.38–0.81), legs (RR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.40–0.90), feet and ankles (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.35–0.83). Non-motorcycle boots were also associated with a reduced risk of injury compared to shoes or joggers (RR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28–0.75). No association between use of body armour and risk of fracture injuries was detected. A substantial proportion of motorcycle designed gloves (25.7%), jackets (29.7%) and pants (28.1%) were assessed to have failed due to material damage in the crash. Conclusions Motorcycle protective clothing is associated with reduced risk and severity of crash related injury and hospitalization, particularly when fitted with body armour. The proportion of clothing items that failed under crash conditions indicates a need for improved quality control. While mandating usage of protective clothing is not recommended, consideration could be given to providing incentives for usage of protective clothing, such as tax exemptions for safety gear, health insurance premium reductions and rebates.

Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Background & aims: The confounding effect of disease on the outcomes of malnutrition using diagnosis-related groups (DRG) has never been studied in a multidisciplinary setting. This study aims to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in a tertiary hospital in Singapore and its impact on hospitalization outcomes and costs, controlling for DRG. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a matched case control study. Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess the nutritional status on admission of 818 adults. Hospitalization outcomes over 3 years were adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, and matched for DRG. Results: Malnourished patients (29%) had longer hospital stays (6.9 ± 7.3 days vs. 4.6 ± 5.6 days, p < 0.001) and were more likely to be readmitted within 15 days (adjusted relative risk = 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.2, p = 0.025). Within a DRG, the mean difference between actual cost of hospitalization and the average cost for malnourished patients was greater than well-nourished patients (p = 0.014). Mortality was higher in malnourished patients at 1 year (34% vs. 4.1 %), 2 years (42.6% vs. 6.7%) and 3 years (48.5% vs. 9.9%); p < 0.001 for all. Overall, malnutrition was a significant predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.4, 95% CI 3.3-6.0, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Malnutrition was evident in up to one third of the inpatients and led to poor hospitalization outcomes and survival as well as increased costs of care, even after matching for DRG. Strategies to prevent and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Urban, suburban, and rural variations in separation/divorce rape/sexual assault : results from the National Crime Victimization Survey

To date, no large study has looked at whether separation/divorce sexual assault varies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The authors use 1992-2009 NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) data to estimate the percentage of separation/divorce sexual assault against women in urban, suburban, and rural communities. In addition, the authors identify and compare the relative risk of sexual assault victimization for women across areas. Findings indicate that a higher percentage of rural divorced/separated women were victims of rape/sexual assault than were urban divorced/separated women. In addition, rural separated women are victims of intimate rape/sexual assault at significantly higher rates than their suburban and urban counterparts.

Understanding the fear of bicycle riding in Australia

Rates of bicycle commuting currently hover around 1 - 2% in most Australian capital cities, although 17.8% of Australians report riding at least once per week. The most commonly stated reason for choosing not to ride a bicycle is fear of motorised vehicles. This paper sets out to examine the literature and offer a commentary regarding the role fear plays as a barrier to bicycle riding. The paper also provides an estimate of the relative risk of driving and riding, on a per trip basis. An analysis of the existing literature finds fear of motorised traffic to be disproportionate to actual levels of risk to bicycle riders. Moreover, the health benefits of bicycling outweigh the risks of collision. Rather than actual collisions forming the basis of people’s fear, it appears plausible that near collisions (which occur far more frequently) may be a significant cause for the exaggerated levels of fear associated with bicycle riding. In order to achieve the Australian Government’s goal of doubling bike riding participation, this review suggests it will be necessary to counter fear through the creation of a low risk traffic environment (both perceived and real), involving marketing/promotional campaigns and the development of a comprehensive bicycle infrastructure network and lower speed limits.

Symptoms of heat illness in surface mine workers

Objective: To assess the symptoms of heat illness experienced by surface mine workers. Methods: Ninety-one surface mine workers across three mine sites in northern Australia completed a heat stress questionnaire evaluating their symptoms for heat illness. A cohort of 56 underground mine workers also participated for comparative purposes. Participants were allocated into asymptomatic, minor or moderate heat illness categories depending on the number of symptoms they reported. Participants also reported the frequency of symptom experience, as well as their hydration status (average urine colour). Results: Heat illness symptoms were experienced by 87 and 79 % of surface and underground mine workers, respectively (p = 0.189), with 81–82 % of the symptoms reported being experienced by miners on more than one occasion. The majority (56 %) of surface workers were classified as experiencing minor heat illness symptoms, with a further 31 % classed as moderate; 13 % were asymptomatic. A similar distribution of heat illness classification was observed among underground miners (p = 0.420). Only 29 % of surface miners were considered well hydrated, with 61 % minimally dehydrated and 10 % significantly dehydrated, proportions that were similar among underground miners (p = 0.186). Heat illness category was significantly related to hydration status (p = 0.039) among surface mine workers, but only a trend was observed when data from surface and underground miners was pooled (p = 0.073). Compared to asymptomatic surface mine workers, the relative risk of experiencing minor and moderate symptoms of heat illness was 1.5 and 1.6, respectively, when minimally dehydrated. Conclusions: These findings show that surface mine workers routinely experience symptoms of heat illness and highlight that control measures are required to prevent symptoms progressing to medical cases of heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

Aromatherapy for treatment of postoperative nausea and vomiting

Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting is a common and unpleasant phenomenon and current therapies are not always effective for all patients. Aromatherapy has been suggested as a possible addition to the available treatment strategies. Objectives: This review sought to establish what effect the use of aromatherapy has on the severity and duration of established postoperative nausea and vomiting and whether aromatherapy can be used with safety and clinical effectiveness comparable to standard pharmacological treatments. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 3); MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; CAM on PubMed; Meditext; LILACS database; and ISI Web of Science as well as grey literature sources and the reference lists of retrieved articles. We conducted database searches up to August 2011. Selection criteria: We included all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) where aromatherapy was used to treat postoperative nausea and vomiting. Interventions were all types of aromatherapy. Aromatherapy was defined as the inhalation of the vapours of any substance for the purposes of a therapeutic benefit. Primary outcomes were the severity and duration of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Secondary outcomes were adverse reactions, use of rescue anti-emetics and patient satisfaction with treatment. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors assessed risk of bias in the included studies and extracted data. As all outcomes analysed were dichotomous, we used a fixed-effects model and calculated relative risk (RR) with associated 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Results: The nine included studies comprised six RCTs and three CCTs with a total of 402 participants. The mean age and range data for all participants were not reported for all studies. The method of randomization in four of the six included RCTs was explicitly stated and adequate. Incomplete reporting of data affected the completeness of the analysis. Compared with placebo, isopropyl alcohol vapour inhalation was effective in reducing the proportion of participants requiring rescue anti-emetics (RR 0.30, 95%CI 0.09 to 1.00, P = 0.05). However, compared with standard anti-emetic treatment, isopropyl alcohol was not effective in reducing the proportion of participants requiring rescue anti-emetics (RR 0.66 95%CI 0.39 to 1.13, P = 0.13) except when the data from a possibly confounded study were included (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.98, P = 0.04). Where studies reported data on patient satisfaction with aromatherapy, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups (RR 1.12, 95%CI 0.62 to 2.03, P = 0.71). Authors' conclusions: Isopropyl alcohol was more effective than saline placebo for reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting but less effective than standard anti-emetic drugs. There is currently no reliable evidence for the use of peppermint oil.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of systematic reviews for non-invasive remote monitoring in heart failure

Remote monitoring for heart failure has been evaluated in numerous systematic reviews. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise their quality and synthesise results. We electronically searched online databases, performed a forward citation search and hand-searched bibliographies. Systematic reviews of remote monitoring interventions that were used for surveillance of heart failure patients were included. Seven (41%) systematic reviews pooled results for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Five (29%) focused on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included both non-invasive and invasive technologies. According to AMSTAR criteria, ten (58%) systematic reviews were of poor methodological quality. In high quality reviews, the relative risk of mortality in patients who received remote monitoring ranged from 0.53 (95% CI=0.29-0.96) to 0.88 (95% CI=0.76-1.01). High quality reviews also reported that remote monitoring reduced the relative risk of all-cause (0.52; 95% CI=0.28-0.96 to 0.96; 95% CI=0.90–1.03) and heart failure-related hospitalizations (0.72; 95% CI=0.64–0.81 to RR 0.79; 95% CI=0.67-0.94) and, as a consequence, healthcare costs. As the high quality reviews reported that remote monitoring reduced hospitalizations, mortality and healthcare costs, research efforts should now be directed towards optimising these interventions in preparation for more widespread implementation.

Prospective imaging study of asymptomatic patellar tendinopathy in elite junior basketball players

To evaluate the ability of ultrasonography to predict eventual symptoms in an at-risk population, 52 elite junior basketball players' patellar tendons were studied at baseline and again 16 months later. The group consisted of 10 study tendons (ultrasonographically hypoechoic at baseline) and 42 control tendons (ultrasonographically normal at baseline). By design, all tendons were asymptomatic at baseline. No differences were noted between subjects and controls at baseline for age, height, weight, training hours, and vertical jump. Functional (P < 0.01) and symptomatic outcome (P < 0.05) were poorer for subjects' tendons than for controls. Relative risk for developing symptoms of jumper's knee was 4.2 times greater in case tendons than in control tendons. Men were more likely to develop ultrasonographic changes than women (P < 0.025), and they also had significantly increased training hours per week (P < 0.01) in the study period. Half (50%) of abnormal tendons in women became ultrasonographically normal in the study period. Our data suggest that presence of an ultrasonographic hypoechoic area is associated with a greater risk of developing jumper's knee symptoms. Ultrasonographic patellar tendon changes may resolve, but this is not necessary for an athlete to become asymptomatic. Qualitative or quantitative analysis of baseline ultrasonographic images revealed it was not possible to predict which tendons would develop symptoms or resolve ultrasonographically.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Impairment of simulated motorcycle riding performance under low dose alcohol

Crash statistics that include the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of vehicle operators reveal that crash involved motorcyclists are over represented at low BACs (e.g., ≤0.05%). This riding simulator study compared riding performance and hazard response under three low dose alcohol conditions (sober, 0.02% BAC, 0.05% BAC). Forty participants (20 novice, 20 experienced) completed simulated rides in urban and rural scenarios while responding to a safety-critical peripheral detection task (PDT). Results showed a significant increase in the standard deviation of lateral position in the urban scenario and PDT reaction time in the rural scenario under 0.05% BAC compared with zero alcohol. Participants were most likely to collide with an unexpected pedestrian in the urban scenario at 0.02% BAC, with novice participants at a greater relative risk than experienced riders. Novices chose to ride faster than experienced participants in the rural scenario regardless of BAC. Not all results were significant, emphasising the complex situation of the effects of low dose BAC on riding performance, which needs further research. The results of this simulator study provide some support for a legal BAC for motorcyclists below 0.05%.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.