67 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder is a diagnostic term now indelibly scored on the public psyche. In some quarters, a diagnosis of “ADHD” is regarded with derision. In others it is welcomed with relief. Despite intense multi-disciplinary research, the jury is still out with regards to the “truth” of ADHD. Not surprisingly, the rapid increase in diagnosis over the past fifteen years, coupled with an exponential rise in the prescription of restricted class psychopharmaceuticals has stirred virulent debate. Provoking the most interest, it seems, are questions regarding causality. Typically, these revolve around possible antecedents for “disorderly” behaviour – bad food, bad tv and bad parents. Very seldom is the institution of schooling ever in the line of sight. To investigate this gap, I draw on Foucault to question what might be happening in schools and how this may be contributing to the definition, recognition and classification of particular children as a particular kind of “disorderly”.

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This paper plots the recent changes in the uses of public space in Hanoi, Vietnam. It is argued that the economic and social changes in contemporary Vietnam have paved the way for a dramatic transformation in the ways in which streets, pavements and markets are experienced and imagined by the populace. The efflorescence of individual mobility, street-trading and public crowding around certain popular events has led to the emergence of a distinct public sphere, one which is not immune from state control and censure but which is a flagrant rebuttal of the state's appeal. The immediate struggles over space herald a new discursive arena for the contest over Vietnamese national imagery as represented in cultural heritage and public space, memorials and state-controlled events which the public are rapidly deserting. The paper concludes by suggesting that the everyday cultural practices that have created a bustling streetlife in urban Vietnam will inevitably provide the vitality and spectacle for the destabilisation of state control in a struggle for meanings in public space.

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Background The Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) study is a repeated sample, longitudinal birth cohort in South East Queensland, Australia. We describe the sample characteristics and profile of maternal, household, and antenatal exposures. Variation and data stability over recruitment years were examined. Methods Four months each year from 2006, pregnant women were recruited to EFHL at routine antenatal visits on or after 24 weeks gestation, from three public maternity hospitals. Participating mothers completed a baseline questionnaire on individual, familial, social and community exposure factors. Perinatal data were extracted from hospital birth records. Descriptive statistics and measures of association were calculated comparing the EFHL birth sample with regional and national reference populations. Data stability of antenatal exposure factors was assessed across five recruitment years (2006–2010 inclusive) using the Gamma statistic for ordinal data and chi-squared for nominal data. Results Across five recruitment years 2,879 pregnant women were recruited which resulted in 2904 live births with 29 sets of twins. EFHL has a lower representation of early gestational babies, fewer still births and a lower percentage of low birth weight babies, when compared to regional data. The majority of women (65%) took a multivitamin supplement during pregnancy, 47% consumed alcohol, and 26% reported having smoked cigarettes. There were no differences in rates of a range of antenatal exposures across five years of recruitment, with the exception of increasing maternal pre-pregnancy weight (p=0.0349), decreasing rates of high maternal distress (p=0.0191) and decreasing alcohol consumption (p<0.0001). Conclusions The study sample is broadly representative of births in the region and almost all factors showed data stability over time. This study, with repeated sampling of birth cohorts over multiple years, has the potential to make important contributions to population health through evaluating longitudinal follow-up and within cohort temporal effects.

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This practice-led research project explores how humour can be employed to develop a methodology for examining the socio-political dimensions of contemporary art practice. This research aims to identify and elaborate on how using the evasive strategies and elliptical frameworks associated with ideas of the absurd and nonsense can lead to new ways of understanding the nexus between social, political and cultural practices. This is achieved primarily through an examination of the art practices of Marcel Duchamp, Bruce Nauman, and Martin Kippenberger. These artists contextualise this research because in different ways they all engage with humour as a device to critique conventional notions of how art can be read or understood. Using these strategies the project aims to demonstrate new ways for considering how visual art can use humour to creatively and critically investigate the relationships between art and the social.

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Significant problems confront our child protection out-of-home care system including: high costs; increasing numbers of children and young people entering and remaining in care longer; high frequency of placement movement; and, negative whole-of-life outcomes for children and young people who have exited care. National policy and research agendas recognise the importance of enhancing the evidence base in out-of-home care to inform the development of policy, programs and practice, and improve longitudinal outcomes of children and young people. The authors discuss the concept of placement trajectory as a framework for research and systems analysis in the out-of-home context. While not without limitations, the concept of placement trajectory is particularly useful in understanding the factors influencing placement movement and stability. Increasing the evidence base in this area can serve to enhance improved outcomes across the lifespan for children and young people in the out-of-home care system.

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Governments are challenged by the need to ensure that ageing populations stay active and engaged as they age. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the role of mobility in older people's engagement in out-of-home activities, and to identify the experiences they have within their communities. This research investigates the use of transportation by older people and its implications for their out-of-home activities within suburban environments. The qualitative, mixed-method approach employs data collection methods which include a daily travel diary (including a questionnaire), Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking and semi-structured interviews with older people living in suburban environments in Brisbane, Australia. Results show that older people are mobile throughout the city, and their car provides them with that opportunity to access desired destinations. This ability to drive allows older people to live independently and to assist others who do not drive, particularly where transport alternatives are not as accessible. The ability to transport goods and other people is a significant advantage of the private car over other transport options. People with no access to private transportation who live in low-density environments are disadvantaged when it comes to participation within the community. Further research is needed to better understand the relationship between transportation and participation within the community environment, to assist policy makers and city and transportation planners to develop strategies for age-friendly environments within the community.

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Australia's economic growth and national identity have been widely celebrated as being founded on the nation's natural resources. With the golden era of pastoralism fading into the distance, a renewed love affair with primary industries has been much lauded, particularly by purveyors of neoliberal ideology. The considerable wealth generated by resource extraction has, despite its environmental and social record, proved seductive to the university sector. The mining industry is one of a number of industries and sectors (alongside pharmaceutical, chemical and biotechnological) that is increasingly courting Australian universities. These new public-private alliances are often viewed as the much-needed cash cow to bridge the public funding shortfall in the tertiary sector. However, this trend also raises profound questions about the capacity of public good institutions, as universities were once assumed to be, to maintain institutional independence and academic freedoms.

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This paper examines the use of connectionism (neural networks) in modelling legal reasoning. I discuss how the implementations of neural networks have failed to account for legal theoretical perspectives on adjudication. I criticise the use of neural networks in law, not because connectionism is inherently unsuitable in law, but rather because it has been done so poorly to date. The paper reviews a number of legal theories which provide a grounding for the use of neural networks in law. It then examines some implementations undertaken in law and criticises their legal theoretical naïvete. It then presents a lessons from the implementations which researchers must bear in mind if they wish to build neural networks which are justified by legal theories.

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Spontaneous play, important for forming the basis of friendships and peer relations, is a complex activity involving the management and production of talk-in-interaction. This paper focuses on the intricacies of social interaction, emphasising the link between alignment and affiliation, and the range and importance of verbal and nonverbal interactive devices available to children. Analysis of the way in which two girls, one of whom has been diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome, engage in spontaneous activities demonstrates the potential for interactional difficulty due to the unscripted nature of the interaction. The paper argues for further research into how improvised, unscripted interactions are initiated within moment-by-moment talk, how they unfold, and how they are brought to a close in everyday contexts in order to understand how children create their social worlds.

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Objective Recently, Taylor et al. reported that use of the BrainLAB m3 microMLC, for stereotactic radiosurgery, results in a decreased out-of-field dose in the direction of leaf-motion compared to the outof- field dose measured in the direction orthogonal to leaf-motion [1]. It was recommended that, where possible, patients should be treated with their superior–inferior axes aligned with the microMLCs leafmotion direction, to minimise out-of-field doses [1]. This study aimed, therefore, to examine the causes of this asymmetry in outof- field dose and, in particular, to establish that a similar recommendation need not be made for radiotherapy treatments delivered by linear accelerators without external micro-collimation systems. Methods Monte Carlo simulations were used to study out-of-field dose from different linear accelerators (the Varian Clinacs 21iX and 600C and the Elekta Precise) with and without internal MLCs and external microMLCs [2]. Results Simulation results for the Varian Clinac 600C linear accelerator with BrainLAB m3 microMLC confirm Taylor et als [1] published experimental data. The out-of-field dose in the leaf motion direction is deposited by lower energy (more obliquely scattered) photons than the out-of-field dose in the orthogonal direction. Linear accelerators without microMLCs produce no asymmetry in out-offield dose. Conclusions The asymmetry in out-of-field dose previously measured by Taylor et al. [1] results from the shielding characteristics of the BrainLAB m3 microMLC device and is not produced by the linear accelerator to which it is attached.

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Voluntary and compliance markets for forest carbon and other (emission avoidance and biosequestration) activities are growing internationally and across Australia. Queensland and its Natural Resource Management (NRM) regions have an opportunity to take a variety of actions to help guide these markets to secure multiple landscape benefits and to build landscape resilience in the face of climate change. As the national arrangements for offsets within Australia’s Clean Energy Package (CEP) and emissions trading environment emerge, Queensland’s regions can prepare themselves and their landholding communities to take advantage of these opportunities to deliver improved climate resilience in their regional landscapes.

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Research suggests that students’ approaches to learning and learning outcomes are closely related to their conceptions of learning. This paper describes a phenomenographically inspired investigation into conceptions of formal learning held by 22 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students from three Australian universities in Queensland; experiences of informal learning, reasons for studying and strategies used to learn were also investigated. The attrition rate for these students in tertiary education is higher than that of any other group of students. It was hoped that information gained may delineate factors that contribute to high attrition rates and therefore inform courses of action that may lead to improved teaching and learning practices for these students. Additionally, success in tertiary education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students may increase their involvement in mainstream society. Results showed that they view and approach university learning in much the same way as other university students. It was also apparent that, generally, the strategies these students used did not match the conceptions of learning they held. An interesting result was the difference between the conceptions of formal learning and explanations of informal learning