A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Design and rationale of a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter study on the efficacy of acute surgical decompression after traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: the SCI-POEM study

Objectives:Despite many years of research, there is currently no treatment available that results in major neurological or functional recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI). In particular, no conclusive data related to the role of the timing of decompressive surgery, and the impact of injury severity on its benefit, have been published to date. This paper presents a protocol that was designed to examine the hypothesized association between the timing of surgical decompression and the extent of neurological recovery in tSCI patients.Study design: The SCI-POEM study is a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter comparative cohort study. This study compares acute (<12 h) versus non-acute (>12 h, <2 weeks) decompressive surgery in patients with a traumatic spinal column injury and concomitant spinal cord injury. The sample size calculation was based on a representative European patient cohort of 492 tSCI patients. During a 4-year period, 300 patients will need to be enrolled from 10 trauma centers across Europe. The primary endpoint is lower-extremity motor score as assessed according to the 'International standards for neurological classification of SCI' at 12 months after injury. Secondary endpoints include motor, sensory, imaging and functional outcomes at 3, 6 and 12 months after injury.Conclusion:In order to minimize bias and reduce the impact of confounders, special attention is paid to key methodological principles in this study protocol. A significant difference in safety and/or efficacy endpoints will provide meaningful information to clinicians, as this would confirm the hypothesis that rapid referral to and treatment in specialized centers result in important improvements in tSCI patients.Spinal Cord advance online publication, 17 April 2012; doi:10.1038/sc.2012.34.

Nutritional status in Parkinson's disease patients undergoing deep-brain stimulation surgery : a pilot study

People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are at higher risk of malnutrition due to PD symptoms and pharmacotherapy side effects. Poorer outcomes are associated with higher amounts of weight loss (>5%) and lower levels of fat free mass. When pharmacotherapy is no longer effective for symptom control, deep-brain stimulation (DBS) surgery may be considered. People with PD scheduled for DBS surgery were recruited from a Brisbane neurological clinic (n=11 out of 16). The Scale for Outcomes of Parkinson’s disease –Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT), Modified Constipation Assessment Scale (MCAS), and a 3-day food diary were mailed to participants’ homes for completion prior to hospital admission. During admission, the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), weight, height and body composition were assessed. Mean(±s.d.) PD duration from diagnosis and time since occurrence of PD symptoms was 9.0(±8.0) and 12(±8.8) years, respectively. Five participants reported unintentional weight loss (average loss of 15.6%). PD duration but not years since symptom onset significantly predicted PG-SGA scores (β=4.2, t(8)=2.7, p<.05). Both were positively correlated with PG-SGA score (r = .667, r=.587). On average, participants classified as well-nourished (SGA-A) (n=4) were younger, had shorter disease durations, lower PG-SGA scores, higher body mass (BMI) and fat free mass (FFMI) indices when compared to malnourished participants (SGA-B) (n=7). They also reported fewer non-motor symptoms on the SCOPA-AUT and MCAS. Three participants had previously received dietetic advice but not in relation to PD. These findings demonstrate that malnutrition remains unrecognised and untreated in this group despite unintentional weight loss and a high prevalence of malnutrition.

Nutritional status in Parkinson’s disease patients undergoing deep brain stimulation surgery : a pilot study

Objectives: People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are at higher risk of malnutrition due to PD symptoms and pharmacotherapy side effects. When pharmacotherapy is no longer effective for symptom control, deep-brain stimulation (DBS) surgery may be considered. The aim of this study was to assess the nutritional status of people with PD who may be at higher risk of malnutrition related to unsatisfactory symptom management with optimised medical therapy. Design: This was an observational study using a convenience sample. Setting: Participants were seen during their hospital admission for their deep brain stimulation surgery. Participants: People with PD scheduled for DBS surgery were recruited from a Brisbane neurological clinic (n=15). Measurements: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), weight, height and body composition were assessed to determine nutritional status. Results: Six participants (40%) were classified as moderately malnourished (SGA-B). Eight participants (53%) reported previous unintentional weight loss (average loss of 13.3%). On average, participants classified as well-nourished (SGA-A) were younger, had shorter disease durations, lower PG-SGA scores, higher body mass (BMI) and fat free mass indices (FFMI) when compared to malnourished participants (SGA-B). Five participants had previously received dietetic advice but only one in relation to unintentional weight loss. Conclusion: Malnutrition remains unrecognised and untreated in this group despite unintentional weight loss and presence of nutrition impact symptoms. Improving nutritional status prior to surgery may improve surgical outcomes.

Cameron's hot air. Pollution, fraud and the politics of carbon emissions

It is widely recognised that exposure to air pollutants affect pulmonary and lung dysfunction as well as a range of neurological and vascular disorders. The rapid increase of worldwide carbon emissions continues to compromise environmental sustainability whilst contributing to premature death. Moreover, the harms caused by air pollution have a more pernicious reach, such as being the major source of climate change and ‘natural disasters’, which reportedly kills millions of people each year (World Health Organization, 2012). The opening quotations tell a story of the UK government's complacency towards the devastation of toxic and contaminating air emissions. The above headlines greeted the British public earlier this year after its government was taken to the Court of Appeal for an appalling air pollution record that continues to cause the premature deaths of 30,000 British people each year at a health cost estimated at £20 billion per annum. This combined with pending legal proceedings against the UK government for air pollution violations by the European Commission, point to a Cameron government that prioritises hot air and profit margins over human lives. The UK's legal air pollution regimes are an industry dominated process that relies on negotiation and partnership between regulators and polluters. The entire model seeks to assist business compliance rather than punish corporate offenders. There is no language of ‘crime’ in relation to UK air pollution violations but rather a discourse of ‘exceedence’ (Walters, 2010). It is a regulatory system not premised on the ‘polluter pay’ principle but instead the ‘polluter profit’ principle.

Bayesian algorithms with applications

Advances in algorithms for approximate sampling from a multivariable target function have led to solutions to challenging statistical inference problems that would otherwise not be considered by the applied scientist. Such sampling algorithms are particularly relevant to Bayesian statistics, since the target function is the posterior distribution of the unobservables given the observables. In this thesis we develop, adapt and apply Bayesian algorithms, whilst addressing substantive applied problems in biology and medicine as well as other applications. For an increasing number of high-impact research problems, the primary models of interest are often sufficiently complex that the likelihood function is computationally intractable. Rather than discard these models in favour of inferior alternatives, a class of Bayesian "likelihoodfree" techniques (often termed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)) has emerged in the last few years, which avoids direct likelihood computation through repeated sampling of data from the model and comparing observed and simulated summary statistics. In Part I of this thesis we utilise sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methodology to develop new algorithms for ABC that are more efficient in terms of the number of model simulations required and are almost black-box since very little algorithmic tuning is required. In addition, we address the issue of deriving appropriate summary statistics to use within ABC via a goodness-of-fit statistic and indirect inference. Another important problem in statistics is the design of experiments. That is, how one should select the values of the controllable variables in order to achieve some design goal. The presences of parameter and/or model uncertainty are computational obstacles when designing experiments but can lead to inefficient designs if not accounted for correctly. The Bayesian framework accommodates such uncertainties in a coherent way. If the amount of uncertainty is substantial, it can be of interest to perform adaptive designs in order to accrue information to make better decisions about future design points. This is of particular interest if the data can be collected sequentially. In a sense, the current posterior distribution becomes the new prior distribution for the next design decision. Part II of this thesis creates new algorithms for Bayesian sequential design to accommodate parameter and model uncertainty using SMC. The algorithms are substantially faster than previous approaches allowing the simulation properties of various design utilities to be investigated in a more timely manner. Furthermore the approach offers convenient estimation of Bayesian utilities and other quantities that are particularly relevant in the presence of model uncertainty. Finally, Part III of this thesis tackles a substantive medical problem. A neurological disorder known as motor neuron disease (MND) progressively causes motor neurons to no longer have the ability to innervate the muscle fibres, causing the muscles to eventually waste away. When this occurs the motor unit effectively ‘dies’. There is no cure for MND, and fatality often results from a lack of muscle strength to breathe. The prognosis for many forms of MND (particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)) is particularly poor, with patients usually only surviving a small number of years after the initial onset of disease. Measuring the progress of diseases of the motor units, such as ALS, is a challenge for clinical neurologists. Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is an attempt to directly assess underlying motor unit loss rather than indirect techniques such as muscle strength assessment, which generally is unable to detect progressions due to the body’s natural attempts at compensation. Part III of this thesis builds upon a previous Bayesian technique, which develops a sophisticated statistical model that takes into account physiological information about motor unit activation and various sources of uncertainties. More specifically, we develop a more reliable MUNE method by applying marginalisation over latent variables in order to improve the performance of a previously developed reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We make other subtle changes to the model and algorithm to improve the robustness of the approach.

The hypothermic patient

Concepts used in this chapter include: Thermoregulation:- Thermoregulation refers to the body’s sophisticated, multi-system regulation of core body temperature. This hierarchical system extends from highly thermo-sensitive neurons in the preoptic region of the brain proximate to the rostral hypothalamus, down to the brain stem and spinal cord. Coupled with receptors in the skin and spine, both central and peripheral information on body temperature is integrated to inform and activate the homeostatic mechanisms which maintain our core temperature at 37oC.1 Body heat is lost through the skin, via respiration and excretions. The skin is perhaps the most important organ in regulating heat loss. Hyporthermia:- Hypothermia is defined as core body temperature less than 350C and is the result of imbalance between the body’s heat production and heat loss mechanisms. Hypothermia may be accidental, or induced for clinical benefit i.e: neurological protection (therapeutic hypothermia). External environmental conditions are the most common cause of accidental hypothermia, but not the only causes of hypothermia in humans. Other causes include metabolic imbalance; trauma; neurological and infectious disease; and exposure to toxins such as organophosphates. Therapeutic Hypothermia:- In some circumstances, hypothermia can be induced to protect neurological functioning as a result of the associated decrease in cerebral metabolism and energy consumption. Reduction in the extent of degenerative processes associated with periods of ischaemia such as excitotoxic cascade; apoptotic and necrotic cell death; microglial activation; oxidative stress and inflammation associated with ischaemia are averted or minimised.2 Mild hypothermia is the only effective treatment confirmed clinically for improving the neurological outcomes of patient’s comatose following cardiac arrest.3

Time-varying bispectral analysis of visually evoked multi-channel EEG

Theoretical foundations of higher order spectral analysis are revisited to examine the use of time-varying bicoherence on non-stationary signals using a classical short-time Fourier approach. A methodology is developed to apply this to evoked EEG responses where a stimulus-locked time reference is available. Short-time windowed ensembles of the response at the same offset from the reference are considered as ergodic cyclostationary processes within a non-stationary random process. Bicoherence can be estimated reliably with known levels at which it is significantly different from zero and can be tracked as a function of offset from the stimulus. When this methodology is applied to multi-channel EEG, it is possible to obtain information about phase synchronization at different regions of the brain as the neural response develops. The methodology is applied to analyze evoked EEG response to flash visual stimulii to the left and right eye separately. The EEG electrode array is segmented based on bicoherence evolution with time using the mean absolute difference as a measure of dissimilarity. Segment maps confirm the importance of the occipital region in visual processing and demonstrate a link between the frontal and occipital regions during the response. Maps are constructed using bicoherence at bifrequencies that include the alpha band frequency of 8Hz as well as 4 and 20Hz. Differences are observed between responses from the left eye and the right eye, and also between subjects. The methodology shows potential as a neurological functional imaging technique that can be further developed for diagnosis and monitoring using scalp EEG which is less invasive and less expensive than magnetic resonance imaging.

Oropharyngeal dysphagia in an elderly post-operative hip fracture population : a prospective cohort study

Background: normal ageing processes impact on oropharyngeal swallowing function placing older adults at risk of developing oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD). Anecdotal clinical experience has observed that older patients recovering from hip fracture surgery commonly develop OD post-operatively. Objective: to document the presence of OD following hip fracture surgery, and the factors associated with OD. Methods: one hundred and eighty-one patients with a mean age of 83 years (range: 65–103) admitted to a specialised orthogeriatric unit were assessed for OD post-surgery for hip fracture. Pre-admission, intra-operative and post-operative factors were examined to determine their relationship with the presence of OD. Results: OD was found to be present post-operatively in 34% (n = 61) of the current population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed the presence of pre-existing neurological and respiratory medical co-morbidities, presence of post-operative delirium, age and living in a residential aged care facility prior to hospital admission to be associated with the post-operative OD. Conclusion: these results highlight that OD is present in a large number of the older hip fracture population. Early identification of OD has important implications for the provision of timely dysphagia management that may prevent secondary complications and potentially reduce the hospital length of stay.

Characterisation of enterovirus 71 replication kinetics in human colorectal cell line, HT29

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD), a contagious viral disease that commonly affects infants and children with blisters and flu like symptoms, is caused by a group of enteroviruses such as Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16). However some HFMD caused by EV71 may further develop into severe neurological complications such as encephalitis and meningitis. The route of transmission was postulated that the virus transmit from one person to another through direct contact of vesicular fluid or droplet from the infected or via faecal-oral route. To this end, this study utilised a human colorectal adenocarcinoma cell line (HT29) with epithelioid morphology as an in vitro model for the investigation of EV71 replication kinetics. Using qPCR, viral RNA was first detected in HT29 cells as early as 12 h post infection (hpi) while viral protein was first detected at 48 hpi. A significant change in HT29 cells’ morphology was also observed after 48 hpi. Furthermore HT29 cell viability also significantly decreased at 72 hpi. Together, data from this study demonstrated that co-culture of HT29 with EV71 is a useful in vitro model to study the pathogenesis of EV71

Analysis of 3 common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene in an Australian migraine case-control cohort

Migraine is a common neurological disorder characterised by temporary disabling attacks of severe head pain and associated disturbances. There is significant evidence to suggest a genetic aetiology to the disease however few causal mutations have been conclusively linked to the migraine subtypes Migraine with (MA) or without Aura (MO). The Potassium Channel, Subfamily K, member 18 (KCNK18) gene, coding the potassium channel TRESK, is the first gene in which a rare mutation resulting in a non-functional truncated protein has been identified and causally linked to MA in a multigenerational family. In this study, three common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene were analysed for genetic variation in an Australian case-control migraine population consisting of 340 migraine cases and 345 controls. No association was observed for the polymorphisms examined with the migraine phenotype or with any haplotypes across the gene. Therefore even though the KCNK18 gene is the only gene to be causally linked to MA our studies indicate that common genetic variation in the gene is not a contributor to MA.

Association study of the calcitonin gene-related polypeptide-alpha (CALCA) and the receptor activity modifying 1 (RAMP1) genes with migraine

Migraine is a common neurovascular brain disorder characterised by recurrent attacks of severe headache that may be accompanied by various neurological symptoms. Migraine is thought to result from activation of the trigeminovascular system followed by vasodilation of pain-producing intracranial blood vessels and activation of second-order sensory neurons in the trigeminal nucleus caudalis. Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) is a mediator of neurogenic inflammation and the most powerful vasodilating neuropeptide, and has been implicated in migraine pathophysiology. Consequently, genes involved in CGRP synthesis or CGRP receptor genes may play a role in migraine and/or increase susceptibility. This study investigates whether variants in the gene that encodes CGRP, calcitonin-related polypeptide alpha (CALCA) or in the gene that encodes a component of its receptor, receptor activity modifying protein 1 (RAMP1), are associated with migraine pathogenesis and susceptibility. The single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs3781719 and rs145837941 in the CALCA gene, and rs3754701 and rs7590387 at the RAMP1 locus, were analysed in an Australian Caucasian population of migraineurs and matched controls. Although we find no significant association of any of the SNPs tested with migraine overall, we detected a nominally significant association (p = 0.031) of the RAMP1 rs3754701 variant in male migraine subjects, although this is non-significant after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing.