Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Indigenous men's support groups and social and emotional wellbeing : a meta-synthesis of the evidence

Indigenous men’s support groups are designed to empower men to take greater control and responsibility for their health and wellbeing. They provide health education sessions, counselling, men’s health clinics, diversionary programs for men facing criminal charges, cultural activities, drug- and alcohol-free social events, and advocacy for resources. Despite there being ~100 such groups across Australia, there is a dearth of literature on their strategies and outcomes. This paper is based on participatory action research involving two north Queensland groups which were the subject of a series of five ‘phased’ evaluative reports between 2002 and 2007. By applying ‘meta-ethnography’ to the five studies, we identified four themes which provide new interpretations of the data. Self-reported benefits included improved social and emotional wellbeing, modest lifestyle modifications and willingness to change current notions of ‘gendered’ roles within the home, such as sharing housework. Our qualitative research to date suggests that through promoting empowerment, wellbeing and social cohesion for men and their families, men’s support groups may be saving costs through reduced expenditure on health care, welfare, and criminal justice costs, and higher earnings. Future research needs to demonstrate this empirically.

A meta-study of SAP financials in the Queensland Government

This thesis consists of three related studies: an ERP Major Issues Study; an Historical Study of the Queensland Government Financial Management System; and a Meta-Study that integrates these and other related studies conducted under the umbrella of the Cooperative ERP Lifecycle Knowledge Management research program. This research provides a comprehensive view of ERP lifecycle issues encountered in SAP R/3 projects across the Queensland Government. This study follows a preliminary ERP issues study (Chang, 2002) conducted in five Queensland Government agencies. The Major Issues Study aims to achieve the following: (1) identify / explicate major issues in relation to the ES life-cycle in the public sector; (2) rank the importance of these issues; and, (3) highlight areas of consensus and dissent among stakeholder groups. To provide a rich context for this study, this thesis includes an historical recount of the Queensland Government Financial Management System (QGFMS). This recount tells of its inception as a centralised system; the selection of SAP and subsequent decentralisation; and, its eventual recentralisation under the Shared Services Initiative and CorpTech. This historical recount gives an insight into the conditions that affected the selection and ongoing management and support of QGFMS. This research forms part of a program entitled Cooperative ERP Lifecycle Knowledge Management. This thesis provides a concluding report for this research program by summarising related studies conducted in the Queensland Government SAP context: Chan (2003); Vayo et al (2002); Ng (2003); Timbrell et al (2001); Timbrell et al (2002); Chang (2002); Putra (1998); and, Niehus et al (1998). A study of Oracle in the United Arab Emirates by Dhaheri (2002) is also included. The thesis then integrates the findings from these studies in an overarching Meta-Study. The Meta-Study discusses key themes across all of these studies, creating an holistic report for the research program. Themes discussed in the meta-study include common issues found across the related studies; knowledge dynamics of the ERP lifecycle; ERP maintenance and support; and, the relationship between the key players in the ERP lifecycle.

In vivo knockdown of the androgen receptor results in growth inhibition and regression of well-established, castration-resistant prostate tumours

Purpose: Progression to the castration-resistant state is the incurable and lethal end stage of prostate cancer, and there is strong evidence that androgen receptor (AR) still plays a central role in this process. We hypothesize that knocking down AR will have a major effect on inhibiting growth of castration-resistant tumors. Experimental Design: Castration-resistant C4-2 human prostate cancer cells stably expressing a tetracycline-inducible AR-targeted short hairpin RNA (shRNA) were generated to directly test the effects of AR knockdown in C4-2 human prostate cancer cells and tumors. Results:In vitro expression of AR shRNA resulted in decreased levels of AR mRNA and protein, decreased expression of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), reduced activation of the PSA-luciferase reporter, and growth inhibition of C4-2 cells. Gene microarray analyses revealed that AR knockdown under hormone-deprived conditions resulted in activation of genes involved in apoptosis, cell cycle regulation, protein synthesis, and tumorigenesis. To ensure that tumors were truly castration-resistant in vivo, inducible AR shRNA expressing C4-2 tumors were grown in castrated mice to an average volume of 450 mm3. In all of the animals, serum PSA decreased, and in 50% of them, there was complete tumor regression and disappearance of serum PSA. Conclusions: Whereas castration is ineffective in castration-resistant prostate tumors, knockdown of AR can decrease serum PSA, inhibit tumor growth, and frequently cause tumor regression. This study is the first direct evidence that knockdown of AR is a viable therapeutic strategy for treatment of prostate tumors that have already progressed to the castration-resistant state.

Iteratively specified tree-based regression : theory and trip generation example

Focuses on a study which introduced an iterative modeling method that combines properties of ordinary least squares (OLS) with hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR) in transportation engineering. Information on OLS and HTBR; Comparison and contrasts of OLS and HTBR; Conclusions.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros