Arguing the Autopsy : mutual suspicion, jurisdictional confusion and the socially marginal

Vulnerable and marginalised populations are not only over-represented in the criminal justice system, but also in civil jurisdictions like the coronial system. Moreover, many of the personnel who deal with criminal matters, especially in rural and regional areas, are also those who manage the coronial death investigation. This movement back and forth between civil and criminal jurisdictions is difficult for the both professional personnel and the families, but especially for those families who may also have had dealings with these personnel in the criminal justice system, or who present as suspicious due to larger historical and global issues. While coronial legislation now allows families to raise cultural and religious concerns about the process, particularly to do with the autopsy of their loved one, this also requires them to identify themselves to police at the initial stage of the death investigation. This paper, part of a larger body of work on autopsy decision making, discusses the ways in which this information is gathered by police, how it is communicated through the system, the ways in which families are supported through the process, and the difficulties that ensue.

Pseudo-marginal algorithms with multiple CPUs

The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

Pseudo plastic zone analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

Application of `advanced analysis' methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A concentrated plasticity method suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections is presented in this paper. The pseudo plastic zone method implicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the method for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections is established by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. The pseudo plastic zone method is shown to be more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations.

Effectiveness of pilot car operations in reducing speeds in a long-term rural highway work zone

Pilot cars are used in one-lane two-way work zones to guide traffic and keep their speeds within posted limits. While many studies have examined the effectiveness of measures to reduce vehicle speeds in work zones, little is known about the reductions achievable through the use of pilot cars. This paper examines the effectiveness of a pilot car in reducing travel speeds in a rural highway work zone in Queensland, Australia. Analysis of speed data covering a period of five days showed that a pilot car reduced average speeds at the treatment location, but not downstream. The proportion of vehicles speeding through the activity area was also reduced, particularly those traveling at 10 km/h or more above the posted limit. Motorists were more likely to speed during the day, under a 40 kh/h limit, when traffic volumes were higher and when there were fewer vehicles in the traffic stream. Medium vehicles were less likely to speed in the presence of a pilot car than light vehicles. To maximize these benefits, it is necessary to ensure that the pilot car itself is not speeding.

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state of the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow- a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation. This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.

Postcards from somewhere : ‘marginal’ cultural production, creativity and community

This paper focuses on a case study of local postcard production in a rural community in Western Australia. Drawing on in-depth interviews with key producers of these postcards, the analysis presented explores perceptions of and contexts for the emergence of this production, in turn examining the notion of ‘creativity’ articulated and privileged by this cultural work. Connections are identified between the making of postcards, the broader historical field of local cultural work and the construction of community. This, in turn, forms the basis for consideration of the role and relativity of ‘marginality’.

The use of headings and marginal notes in interpreting Queensland legislation : appearances can be deceptive

This article considers the rules relating to the use of marginal notes and headings in interpreting Queensland legislation, both in its original form and in reprinted legislation. It also examines the application of the principles of construction as to the use of section headings in the interpretation of provisions of the Criminal Code 1899 (Qld). Finally, it suggests that amendments should be made to the Acts Interpretation Act 1954 (Qld) in order to clarify the position as to the status of marginal notes and headings in statutory interpretation.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Study on dynamic system optimum assignment to establish marginal time equilibrium

Several analytical methods for Dynamic System Optimum (DSO) assignment have been proposed but they are basically classified into two kinds. This chapter attempts to establish DSO by equilbrating the path dynamic marginal time (DMT). The authors analyze the path DMT for a single path with tandem bottlenecks and showed that the path DMT is not the simple summation of DMT associated with each bottleneck along the path. Next, the authors examined the DMT of several paths passing through a common bottleneck. It is shown that the externality at the bottleneck is shared by the paths in proportion to their demand from the current time until the queue vanishes. This share of the externality is caused by the departure rate shift under first in first out (FIFO) and the externality propagates to the downstream bottlenecks. However, the externalities propagates to the downstream are calculated out if downstream bottlenecks exist. Therefore, the authors concluded that the path DMT can be evaluated without considering the propagation of the externalities, but just as in the evaluation of the path DMT for a single path passing through a series of bottlenecks between the origin and destination. Based on the DMT analysis, the authors finally proposed a heuristic solution algorithm and verified it by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical one.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Making informed decisions on selecting promising Work Zone Safety Treatments

Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper presents a method for making informed decisions about safety treatments by 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones, 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists, 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.