A fuzzy neural network approach for contractor pre-qualification

Nonlinearity, uncertainty and subjectivity are the three predominant characteristics of contractors prequalification which cause the process more of an art than a scientific evaluation. A fuzzy neural network (FNN) model, amalgamating both the fuzzy set and neural network theories, has been developed aiming to improve the objectiveness of contractor prequalification. Through the FNN theory, the fuzzy rules as used by the prequalifiers can be identified and the corresponding membership functions can be transformed. Eighty-five cases with detailed decision criteria and rules for prequalifying Hong Kong civil engineering contractors were collected. These cases were used for training (calibrating) and testing the FNN model. The performance of the FNN model was compared with the original results produced by the prequalifiers and those generated by the general feedforward neural network (GFNN, i.e. a crisp neural network) approach. Contractor’s ranking orders, the model efficiency (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were examined during the testing phase. These results indicate the applicability of the neural network approach for contractor prequalification and the benefits of the FNN model over the GFNN model. The FNN is a practical approach for modelling contractor prequalification.

The roles and importance of formal and informal sources of business support in young firms : evidence from the UK’s 2008 Federation of Small Business Survey

Objectives This research explores the relationship between young firms, their growth orientation-intention and a range of relationships which can be seen to provide business support. Prior-work Research indicates that networks impact the firm’s ability to secure resources (Sirmon and Hitt 2003; Liao and Welsch. 2004; Hanlon and Saunders 2007). Networks have been evaluated in a number of ways ranging from simple counts to characteristics of their composition (Davidsson and Honig 2003), strength of relationships (Granovetter 1973) and network diversity (Carter et al 2003). By providing access to resources and knowledge (from start-up assistance and raising capital, (e.g. Smallbone et al, 2003), networks may assist in enabling continued persistence during those times where firms may experience resource constraints owing to firm growth (Baker and Nelson 2005). Approach The data used in this research was generated in the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey. Over 1,000 of the firms responding were found to fall into the category of “young”, ((defined as firms under 4 years old). Firms were considered the unit of analysis with the entrepreneur being the chief spokesperson for the firm. Preliminary data analysis considered key demographic characteristics and industry classifications, comparing the FSB data with that of the UK government’s own (BERR) Small Business Surveys of 2007 and 2008, to establish some degree of representativeness of the respondents. The analysis then examined networks with varying potential ability to provide support for young firms, the networks measured in terms of number, diversity, characteristic and strength in its relationship to young firm growth orientation. The diversity of business-support-related relationships ranged from friends and family, through professional services, customers and suppliers, and government business services, to trade associations and informal business networks. The characteristics of these formal and informal sources of support for new businesses are examined across a range of business support-type activities for new firms. The number of relationships and types of business support are also explored. Finally, the strength of these relationships is examined by analysis of the source of business support, type of business support, and links to the growth orientation-intention of the firm, after controlling for a number of key variables related to firm and industry status and owner characteristics. Results Preliminary analysis of the data by means of univariate analysis showed that average number of sources of advice was around 2.5 (from a potential total of 6). In terms of the diversity of relationships, universities had by far the smallest percentage of firms receiving beneficial advice from them. Government business services were beneficially used by 40% of young firms, the other relationship types being around the 50-55% mark. In terms of characteristics of the advice, the average number of areas in which benefit was achieved was around 5.5 of a maximum of 15. Start-up advice has by far the highest percentage of firms obtaining beneficial advice, with increasing sales, improving contacts and improving confidence being the other categories at or around the 50% mark. Other market-focused areas where benefits were also received were in the areas of new markets, existing product improvements and new product improvements, where around 40% of the young responding firms obtained benefit. Regression techniques evaluating the strength of these relationships in terms of the links between business support (by source of support, type of support, and range of support) and firm growth orientation-intention focus highlighted a number of significant relationships, even after controlling for a range of other explanatory variables identified in the literature. Specifically, there was found to be a positive relationship between receiving business advice generally (regardless of type or source) and growth orientation. This relationship was seen to be stronger, however, when looking at the number of types of beneficial advice received, and stronger again for the number of sources of this advice. In terms of individual sources of advice, customers and suppliers had the strongest relationship with growth, with Government business services also found to be significant. Combining these two sources was also seen to increase the strength of the relationship between these two sources of advice and growth orientation. In considering areas of support, growth was most strongly positively related to advice that benefited the development of new products and services, and also business confidence, but was negatively related to advice linked to business recovery. Finally, amalgamating the 4 key types and sources of advice to examine the impact of combinations of these types and sources of advice also improved the strength of the relationship. Implications The findings will assist in the understanding of young firms in general and growth more specifically, particularly the role and importance of specific sources, types and combinations of business support used more extensively by new young growth-oriented firms. Value This research may assist in processes designed to allow entrepreneurs to make better decisions; educators and support organizations to develop better advice and assistance, and Governments design better conditions for the creation of new growth-oriented businesses.

50 Years of Isolation

The traditional means for isolating applications from each other is via the use of operating system provided “process” abstraction facilities. However, as applications now consist of multiple fine-grained components, the traditional process abstraction model is proving to be insufficient in ensuring this isolation. Statistics indicate that a high percentage of software failure occurs due to propagation of component failures. These observations are further bolstered by the attempts by modern Internet browser application developers, for example, to adopt multi-process architectures in order to increase robustness. Therefore, a fresh look at the available options for isolating program components is necessary and this paper provides an overview of previous and current research on the area.

The impact of usability on clinician acceptance of a health information system

The two longitudinal case studies that make up this dissertation sought to explain and predict the relationship between usability and clinician acceptance of a health information system. The overall aim of the research study was to determine what role usability plays in the acceptance or rejection of systems used by clinicians in a healthcare context. The focus was on the end users (the clinicians) rather than the views of the system designers and managers responsible for implementation and the clients of the clinicians. A mixed methods approach was adopted that drew on both qualitative and quantitative research methods. This study followed the implementation of a community health information system from early beginnings to its established practice. Users were drawn from different health service departments with distinctly different organisational cultures and attitudes to information and communication technology used in this context. This study provided evidence that a usability analysis in this context would not necessarily be valid when the users have prior reservations on acceptance. Investigation was made on the initial training and post-implementation support together with a study on the nature of the clinicians to determine factors that may influence their attitude. This research identified that acceptance of a system is not necessarily a measure of its quality, capability and usability, is influenced by the user’s attitude which is determined by outside factors, and the nature and quality of training. The need to recognise the limitations of the current methodologies for analysing usability and acceptance was explored to lay the foundations for further research.

Sex offenders in denial : a study into a group of forensic psychologists' attitudes regarding the corresponding impact upon risk assessment calculations and parole eligibility

A considerable proportion of convicted sex offenders maintain a stance of innocence and thus do not engage in recommended treatment programs. As a result, such offenders are often deemed to have outstanding criminogenic needs which may negatively impact upon risk assessment procedures and parole eligibility. This paper reports on a study that aimed to investigate a group of forensic psychologists’ attitudes regarding the impact of denial on risk assessment ratings as well as parole eligibility. Participants completed a confidential open-ended questionnaire. Analysis indicated that considerable variability exists among forensic psychologists in regards to their beliefs about the origins of denial and what impact such denial should have on post-prison release eligibility. In contrast, there was less disparity regarding beliefs about the percentage of innocent yet incarcerated sex offenders. This paper also reviews current understanding regarding the impact of denial on recidivism as well as upon general forensic assessments.

The neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characterization of children with joint hypermobility

In children, joint hypermobility (typified by structural instability of joints) manifests clinically as neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal conditions and conditions associated with development and organization of control of posture and gait (Finkelstein, 1916; Jahss, 1919; Sobel, 1926; Larsson, Mudholkar, Baum and Srivastava, 1995; Murray and Woo, 2001; Hakim and Grahame, 2003; Adib, Davies, Grahame, Woo and Murray, 2005:). The process of control of the relative proportions of joint mobility and stability, whilst maintaining equilibrium in standing posture and gait, is dependent upon the complex interrelationship between skeletal, muscular and neurological function (Massion, 1998; Gurfinkel, Ivanenko, Levik and Babakova, 1995; Shumway-Cook and Woollacott, 1995). The efficiency of this relies upon the integrity of neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal components (ligaments, muscles, nerves), and the Central Nervous System’s capacity to interpret, process and integrate sensory information from visual, vestibular and proprioceptive sources (Crotts, Thompson, Nahom, Ryan and Newton, 1996; Riemann, Guskiewicz and Shields, 1999; Schmitz and Arnold, 1998) and development and incorporation of this into a representational scheme (postural reference frame) of body orientation with respect to internal and external environments (Gurfinkel et al., 1995; Roll and Roll, 1988). Sensory information from the base of support (feet) makes significant contribution to the development of reference frameworks (Kavounoudias, Roll and Roll, 1998). Problems with the structure and/ or function of any one, or combination of these components or systems, may result in partial loss of equilibrium and, therefore ineffectiveness or significant reduction in the capacity to interact with the environment, which may result in disability and/ or injury (Crotts et al., 1996; Rozzi, Lephart, Sterner and Kuligowski, 1999b). Whilst literature focusing upon clinical associations between joint hypermobility and conditions requiring therapeutic intervention has been abundant (Crego and Ford, 1952; Powell and Cantab, 1983; Dockery, in Jay, 1999; Grahame, 1971; Childs, 1986; Barton, Bird, Lindsay, Newton and Wright, 1995a; Rozzi, et al., 1999b; Kerr, Macmillan, Uttley and Luqmani, 2000; Grahame, 2001), there has been a deficit in controlled studies in which the neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of children with joint hypermobility have been quantified and considered within the context of organization of postural control in standing balance and gait. This was the aim of this project, undertaken as three studies. The major study (Study One) compared the fundamental neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of 15 children with joint hypermobility, and 15 age (8 and 9 years), gender, height and weight matched non-hypermobile controls. Significant differences were identified between previously undiagnosed hypermobile (n=15) and non-hypermobile children (n=15) in passive joint ranges of motion of the lower limbs and lumbar spine, muscle tone of the lower leg and foot, barefoot CoP displacement and in parameters of barefoot gait. Clinically relevant differences were also noted in barefoot single leg balance time. There were no differences between groups in isometric muscle strength in ankle dorsiflexion, knee flexion or extension. The second comparative study investigated foot morphology in non-weight bearing and weight bearing load conditions of the same children with and without joint hypermobility using three dimensional images (plaster casts) of their feet. The preliminary phase of this study evaluated the casting technique against direct measures of foot length, forefoot width, RCSP and forefoot to rearfoot angle. Results indicated accurate representation of elementary foot morphology within the plaster images. The comparative study examined the between and within group differences in measures of foot length and width, and in measures above the support surface (heel inclination angle, forefoot to rearfoot angle, normalized arch height, height of the widest point of the heel) in the two load conditions. Results of measures from plaster images identified that hypermobile children have different barefoot weight bearing foot morphology above the support surface than non-hypermobile children, despite no differences in measures of foot length or width. Based upon the differences in components of control of posture and gait in the hypermobile group, identified in Study One and Study Two, the final study (Study Three), using the same subjects, tested the immediate effect of specifically designed custom-made foot orthoses upon balance and gait of hypermobile children. The design of the orthoses was evaluated against the direct measures and the measures from plaster images of the feet. This ascertained the differences in morphology of the modified casts used to mould the orthoses and the original image of the foot. The orthoses were fitted into standardized running shoes. The effect of the shoe alone was tested upon the non-hypermobile children as the non-therapeutic equivalent condition. Immediate improvement in balance was noted in single leg stance and CoP displacement in the hypermobile group together with significant immediate improvement in the percentage of gait phases and in the percentage of the gait cycle at which maximum plantar flexion of the ankle occurred in gait. The neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of children with joint hypermobility are different from those of non-hypermobile children. The Beighton, Solomon and Soskolne (1973) screening criteria successfully classified joint hypermobility in children. As a result of this study joint hypermobility has been identified as a variable which must be controlled in studies of foot morphology and function in children. The outcomes of this study provide a basis upon which to further explore the association between joint hypermobility and neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal conditions, and, have relevance for the physical education of children with joint hypermobility, for footwear and orthotic design processes, and, in particular, for clinical identification and treatment of children with joint hypermobility.

Real time detectionof airborne fungal spores and investigations into their dynamics in indoor air

Concern regarding the health effects of indoor air quality has grown in recent years, due to the increased prevalence of many diseases, as well as the fact that many people now spend most of their time indoors. While numerous studies have reported on the dynamics of aerosols indoors, the dynamics of bioaerosols in indoor environments are still poorly understood and very few studies have focused on fungal spore dynamics in indoor environments. Consequently, this work investigated the dynamics of fungal spores in indoor air, including fungal spore release and deposition, as well as investigating the mechanisms involved in the fungal spore fragmentation process. In relation to the investigation of fungal spore dynamics, it was found that the deposition rates of the bioaerosols (fungal propagules) were in the same range as the deposition rates of nonbiological particles and that they were a function of their aerodynamic diameters. It was also found that fungal particle deposition rates increased with increasing ventilation rates. These results (which are reported for the first time) are important for developing an understanding of the dynamics of fungal spores in the air. In relation to the process of fungal spore fragmentation, important information was generated concerning the airborne dynamics of the spores, as well as the part/s of the fungi which undergo fragmentation. The results obtained from these investigations into the dynamics of fungal propagules in indoor air significantly advance knowledge about the fate of fungal propagules in indoor air, as well as their deposition in the respiratory tract. The need to develop an advanced, real-time method for monitoring bioaerosols has become increasingly important in recent years, particularly as a result of the increased threat from biological weapons and bioterrorism. However, to date, the Ultraviolet Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (UVAPS, Model 3312, TSI, St Paul, MN) is the only commercially available instrument capable of monitoring and measuring viable airborne micro-organisms in real-time. Therefore (for the first time), this work also investigated the ability of the UVAPS to measure and characterise fungal spores in indoor air. The UVAPS was found to be sufficiently sensitive for detecting and measuring fungal propagules. Based on fungal spore size distributions, together with fluorescent percentages and intensities, it was also found to be capable of discriminating between two fungal spore species, under controlled laboratory conditions. In the field, however, it would not be possible to use the UVAPS to differentiate between different fungal spore species because the different micro-organisms present in the air may not only vary in age, but may have also been subjected to different environmental conditions. In addition, while the real-time UVAPS was found to be a good tool for the investigation of fungal particles under controlled conditions, it was not found to be selective for bioaerosols only (as per design specifications). In conclusion, the UVAPS is not recommended for use in the direct measurement of airborne viable bioaerosols in the field, including fungal particles, and further investigations into the nature of the micro-organisms, the UVAPS itself and/or its use in conjunction with other conventional biosamplers, are necessary in order to obtain more realistic results. Overall, the results obtained from this work on airborne fungal particle dynamics will contribute towards improving the detection capabilities of the UVAPS, so that it is capable of selectively monitoring and measuring bioaerosols, for which it was originally designed. This work will assist in finding and/or improving other technologies capable of the real-time monitoring of bioaerosols. The knowledge obtained from this work will also be of benefit in various other bioaerosol applications, such as understanding the transport of bioaerosols indoors.

Depression, anxiety and body image after treatment for invasive stage one epithelial ovarian cancer

Background: Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in young women has major implications including those to their reproductive potential. We evaluated depression, anxiety and body image in patients with stage I EOC treated with fertility sparing surgery (FSS) or radical surgery (RS). We also investigated fertility outcomes after FSS.----- Methods: A retrospective study was undertaken in which 62 patients completed questionnaires related to anxiety, depression, body image and fertility outcomes. Additional information on adjuvant therapy after FSS and RS and demographic details were abstracted from medical records. Both bi and multivariate regression models were used to assess the relationship between demographic, clinical and pathological results and scores for anxiety, depression and body image.----- Results: Thirty-nine patients underwent RS and the rest, FSS. The percentage of patients reporting elevated anxiety and depression (subscores ≥ 11) were 27 % and 5% respectively. The median (inter quartile range) score for body image scale (BIS) was 6 (3-15). None of the demographic or clinical factors examined showed significant association with anxiety and BIS with the exception of ‘time since diagnosis’. For depression, post-menopausal status was the only independent predictor. Among those 23 patients treated by FSS, 14 patients tried to conceive (7 successful), resulting in 7 live births, one termination of pregnancy and one miscarriage.----- Conclusion: This study shows that psychological issues are common in women treated for stage I EOC. Reproduction after FSS is feasible and lead to the birth of healthy babies in about half of patients who wished to have another child. Further prospective studies with standardised instruments are required.

Prison foodservice in Australia : systems, menus and inmate attitudes

This paper presents results from three studies in 25 custodial facilities in three Australian states, including nutrient analyses of menus and focus groups exploring inmate attitudes. Both cook-fresh and cook-chill production systems are used. Non-selective cycle menus of 4-6 weeks are common but inmates can supplement meals by purchase of additional food items (‘buy-ups’). Menus included adequate variety and met most nutritional standards, with the possible exception of fruit. The sodium content of menus is above recommended levels. Protein, fibre, vitamins A, C, thiamin, riboflavin, calcium, iron and zinc were more than adequate, and the percentage energy from fat is close to or meets national recommendations. Focus groups identified 16 themes, including meal quality, food available at ‘buy-ups’, cooking facilities, and concerns about possible food safety risks associated with inmates storing food in cells. Many complaints were about factors not under the control of the foodservice manager.

Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud used for the removal of arsenate, vanadate and molybdate from aqueous solutions.

The effectiveness of using thermally activated hydrotalcite materials has been investigated for the removal of arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate in individual and mixed solutions. Results show that increasing the Mg,Al ratio to 4:1 causes an increase in the percentage of anions removed from solution. The order of affinity of the three anions analysed in this investigation is arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate. By comparisons with several synthetic hydrotalcite materials, the hydrotalcite structure in the seawater neutralised red mud (SWN-RM) has been determined to consist of magnesium and aluminium with a ratio between 3.5:1 and 4:1. Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud removes at least twice the concentration of anionic species than thermally activated red mud alone, due to the formation of 40 to 60 % Bayer hydrotalcite during the neutralisation process.

Composite load model decomposition : induction motor contribution

In this thesis, a new technique has been developed for determining the composition of a collection of loads including induction motors. The application would be to provide a representation of the dynamic electrical load of Brisbane so that the ability of the power system to survive a given fault can be predicted. Most of the work on load modelling to date has been on post disturbance analysis, not on continuous on-line models for loads. The post disturbance methods are unsuitable for load modelling where the aim is to determine the control action or a safety margin for a specific disturbance. This thesis is based on on-line load models. Dr. Tania Parveen considers 10 induction motors with different power ratings, inertia and torque damping constants to validate the approach, and their composite models are developed with different percentage contributions for each motor. This thesis also shows how measurements of a composite load respond to normal power system variations and this information can be used to continuously decompose the load continuously and to characterize regarding the load into different sizes and amounts of motor loads.

Decomposition of aggregated load : finding induction motor fraction in real load

The main contribution of this paper is decomposition/separation of the compositie induction motors load from measurement at a system bus. In power system transmission buses load is represented by static and dynamic loads. The induction motor is considered as the main dynamic loads and in the practice for major transmission buses there will be many and various induction motors contributing. Particularly at an industrial bus most of the load is dynamic types. Rather than traing to extract models of many machines this paper seeks to identify three groups of induction motors to represent the dynamic loads. Three groups of induction motors used to characterize the load. These are the small groups (4kw to 11kw), the medium groups (15kw to 180kw) and the large groups (above 630kw). At first these groups with different percentage contribution of each group is composite. After that from the composite models, each motor percentage contribution is decomposed by using the least square algorithms. In power system commercial and the residential buses static loads percentage is higher than the dynamic loads percentage. To apply this theory to other types of buses such as residential and commerical it is good practice to represent the total load as a combination of composite motor loads, constant impedence loads and constant power loads. To validate the theory, the 24hrs of Sydney West data is decomposed according to the three groups of motor models.

To work or not to work? Child development and maternal labor supply

We estimate the effect of early child development on maternal labor force participation. Mothers of poorly developing children may remain at home to care for their children. Alternatively, mothers may enter the labor force to pay for additional educational and health resources. Which action dominates is the empirical question we answer in this paper. We control for the potential endogeneity of child development by using an instrumental variables approach, uniquely exploiting exogenous variation in child development associated with child handedness. We find that a one unit increase in poor child development decreases maternal labor force participation by approximately 10 percentage points.

Botanical matrix

Botanical matrix is a graphic map produced via a process involving an initial site installation (350 m contour transect), a botanical survey and photographic documentation of species. The site is a housing subdivision at Point Henry, on the SE coast of Western Australia which is a landscape which is host the most botanically diverse vegetation found worldwide - known locally as 'kwongan'. Notoriously difficult vegetation to measure and map, kwongan is a visual 'engima', for paradoxically it appears to the lay person as visually bland and highly homogenous. There is thus is a critical need for the development of new forms of representation which overcome the barriers between the perception and reality of this botanical condition. Botanical Matrix is one result of the author's research which seeks to address this important problem.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.