Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.

Minimising speaker verification utterance length through confidence based early verification decisions

This paper presents a novel approach of estimating the confidence interval of speaker verification scores. This approach is utilised to minimise the utterance lengths required in order to produce a confident verification decision. The confidence estimation method is also extended to address both the problem of high correlation in consecutive frame scores, and robustness with very limited training samples. The proposed technique achieves a drastic reduction in the typical data requirements for producing confident decisions in an automatic speaker verification system. When evaluated on the NIST 2005 SRE, the early verification decision method demonstrates that an average of 5–10 seconds of speech is sufficient to produce verification rates approaching those achieved previously using an average in excess of 100 seconds of speech.

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to reduce emergency re-admissions to hospital among older patients

Background. The objective is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that reduces hospital readmission among older people at high risk. A cost-effectiveness model to estimate the costs and health benefits of the intervention was implemented. Methodology/Principal Findings. The model used data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in an Australian tertiary metropolitan hospital. Participants were acute medical admissions aged >65 years with at least one risk factor for readmission: multiple comorbidities, impaired functionality, aged >75 years, 30 recent multiple admissions, poor social support, history of depression. The intervention was a comprehensive nursing and physiotherapy assessment and an individually tailored program of exercise strategies and nurse home visits with telephone follow-up; commencing in hospital and continuing following discharge for 24 weeks. The change to cost outcomes, including the costs of implementing the intervention and all subsequent use of health care services, and, the change to health benefits, represented by quality adjusted life years, were estimated for the intervention as compared to existing practice. The mean change to total costs and quality 38 adjusted life years for an average individual over 24 weeks participating in the intervention were: cost savings of $333 (95% Bayesian credible interval $-1,932:1,282) and 0.118 extra quality adjusted life years (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.1:0.136). The mean net41 monetary-benefit per individual for the intervention group compared to the usual care condition was $7,907 (95% Bayesian credible interval $5,959:$9,995) for the 24 week period. Conclusions/Significance. The estimation model that describes this intervention predicts cost savings and improved health outcomes. A decision to remain with existing practices causes unnecessary costs and reduced health. Decision makers should consider adopting this 46 program for elderly hospitalised patients.

Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background: While the relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. We examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship. Methods: Adults (n=38 355) aged 40-69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990-1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports. Results: CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only compared to those who had completed tertiary education, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared to the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78-1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups. Conclusions: Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socioeconomic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socioeconomic groups.

Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households

Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable consumption, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Tear film surface quality with soft contact lenses using dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy

Objectives. To evaluate the performance of the dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy technique in the assessment of tear film surface quality with and without the presence of soft contact lenses on eye. Methods. Retrospective data from a tear film study using basic high-speed videokeratoscopy, captured at 25 frames per second, (Kopf et al., 2008, J Optom) were used. Eleven subjects had tear film analysis conducted in the morning, midday and evening on the first and seventh day of one week of no lens wear. Five of the eleven subjects then completed an extra week of hydrogel lens wear followed by a week of silicone hydrogel lens wear. Analysis was performed on a 6 second period of the inter-blink recording. The dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy technique uses the maximum available area of Placido ring pattern reflected from the tear interface and eliminates regions of disturbance due to shadows from the eyelashes. A value of tear film surface quality was derived using image rocessing techniques, based on the quality of the reflected ring pattern orientation. Results. The group mean tear film surface quality and the standard deviations for each of the conditions (bare eye, hydrogel lens, and silicone hydrogel lens) showed a much lower coefficient of variation than previous methods (average reduction of about 92%). Bare eye measurements from the right and left eyes of eleven individuals showed high correlation values (Pearson’s correlation r = 0.73, p < 0.05). Repeated measures ANOVA across the 6 second period of measurement in the normal inter-blink period for the bare eye condition showed no statistically significant changes. However, across the 6 second inter-blink period with both contact lenses, statistically significant changes were observed (p < 0.001) for both types of contact lens material. Overall, wearing hydrogel and silicone hydrogel lenses caused the tear film surface quality to worsen compared with the bare eye condition (repeated measures ANOVA, p < 0.0001 for both hydrogel and silicone hydrogel). Conclusions. The results suggest that the dynamic-area method of high-speed videokeratoscopy was able to distinguish and quantify the subtle, but systematic worsening of tear film surface quality in the inter-blink interval in contact lens wear. It was also able to clearly show a difference between bare eye and contact lens wearing conditions.

Determining a set of surrogate parameters to evaluate urban stormwater quality

This thesis details methodology to estimate urban stormwater quality based on a set of easy to measure physico-chemical parameters. These parameters can be used as surrogate parameters to estimate other key water quality parameters. The key pollutants considered in this study are nitrogen compounds, phosphorus compounds and solids. The use of surrogate parameter relationships to evaluate urban stormwater quality will reduce the cost of monitoring and so that scientists will have added capability to generate a large amount of data for more rigorous analysis of key urban stormwater quality processes, namely, pollutant build-up and wash-off. This in turn will assist in the development of more stringent stormwater quality mitigation strategies. The research methodology was based on a series of field investigations, laboratory testing and data analysis. Field investigations were conducted to collect pollutant build-up and wash-off samples from residential roads and roof surfaces. Past research has identified that these impervious surfaces are the primary pollutant sources to urban stormwater runoff. A specially designed vacuum system and rainfall simulator were used in the collection of pollutant build-up and wash-off samples. The collected samples were tested for a range of physico-chemical parameters. Data analysis was conducted using both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques. Analysis of build-up samples showed that pollutant loads accumulated on road surfaces are higher compared to the pollutant loads on roof surfaces. Furthermore, it was found that the fraction of solids smaller than 150 ìm is the most polluted particle size fraction in solids build-up on both roads and roof surfaces. The analysis of wash-off data confirmed that the simulated wash-off process adopted for this research agrees well with the general understanding of the wash-off process on urban impervious surfaces. The observed pollutant concentrations in wash-off from road surfaces were different to pollutant concentrations in wash-off from roof surfaces. Therefore, firstly, the identification of surrogate parameters was undertaken separately for roads and roof surfaces. Secondly, a common set of surrogate parameter relationships were identified for both surfaces together to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Surrogate parameters were identified for nitrogen, phosphorus and solids separately. Electrical conductivity (EC), total organic carbon (TOC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), total solids (TS) and turbidity (TTU) were selected as the relatively easy to measure parameters. Consequently, surrogate parameters for nitrogen and phosphorus were identified from the set of easy to measure parameters for both road surfaces and roof surfaces. Additionally, surrogate parameters for TSS, TDS and TS which are key indicators of solids were obtained from EC and TTU which can be direct field measurements. The regression relationships which were developed for surrogate parameters and key parameter of interest were of a similar format for road and roof surfaces, namely it was in the form of simple linear regression equations. The identified relationships for road surfaces were DTN-TDS:DOC, TP-TS:TOC, TSS-TTU, TDS-EC and TSTTU: EC. The identified relationships for roof surfaces were DTN-TDS and TSTTU: EC. Some of the relationships developed had a higher confidence interval whilst others had a relatively low confidence interval. The relationships obtained for DTN-TDS, DTN-DOC, TP-TS and TS-EC for road surfaces demonstrated good near site portability potential. Currently, best management practices are focussed on providing treatment measures for stormwater runoff at catchment outlets where separation of road and roof runoff is not found. In this context, it is important to find a common set of surrogate parameter relationships for road surfaces and roof surfaces to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Consequently DTN-TDS, TS-EC and TS-TTU relationships were identified as the common relationships which are capable of providing measurements of DTN and TS irrespective of the surface type.

Near real-time prediction of Zenith Tropospheric Delays for position estimation over long-baseline CORS network

This paper presents the preliminary results in establishing a strategy for predicting Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and relative ZTD (rZTD) between Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in near real-time. It is anticipated that the predicted ZTD or rZTD can assist the network-based Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) performance over long inter-station distances, ultimately, enabling a cost effective method of delivering precise positioning services to sparsely populated regional areas, such as Queensland. This research firstly investigates two ZTD solutions: 1) the post-processed IGS ZTD solution and 2) the near Real-Time ZTD solution. The near Real-Time solution is obtained through the GNSS processing software package (Bernese) that has been deployed for this project. The predictability of the near Real-Time Bernese solution is analyzed and compared to the post-processed IGS solution where it acts as the benchmark solution. The predictability analyses were conducted with various prediction time of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes to determine the error with respect to timeliness. The predictability of ZTD and relative ZTD is determined (or characterized) by using the previously estimated ZTD as the predicted ZTD of current epoch. This research has shown that both the ZTD and relative ZTD predicted errors are random in nature; the STD grows from a few millimeters to sub-centimeters while the predicted delay interval ranges from 15 to 60 minutes. Additionally, the RZTD predictability shows very little dependency on the length of tested baselines of up to 1000 kilometers. Finally, the comparison of near Real-Time Bernese solution with IGS solution has shown a slight degradation in the prediction accuracy. The less accurate NRT solution has an STD error of 1cm within the delay of 50 minutes. However, some larger errors of up to 10cm are observed.

Determination of optimal preventive maintenance strategy for serial production lines

A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Protective behavior in adolescent friendships : the influence of attitudes toward the consequences, friendship norms and perceived control

The current study sought to understand adolescent protective behavior in friendship using a Theory of Planned Behavior framework. In particular, the study sought to consider a young persons’ direct and active intervention to inhibit their friends’ risky behavior or to assist them when the behavior leads to injury. The role of attitudes regarding the consequences, norms and control about protective behavior were examined both qualitatively through focus groups (n= 50) and quantitatively through surveys from a sample of 540 Year 9 students (13-14 years old). There was some support for the theory with attitudes regarding the consequences of the behavior and norms predicting intended protective behavior. A path analysis was conducted with a sub-sample of 140 students which showed that intentions to be protective and perceived control to undertake protective behavior directly predicted such behavior after a 3 month interval. Attitudes towards the consequences and norms only indirectly predicted protective behavior via intention. The findings provide important applied information for interventions designed to increase adolescent protective behavior in their friendships.

Can venous occlusion plethysmography be used to measure high rates of arterial inflow?

To investigate whether venous occlusion plethysmography (VOP) may be used to measure high rates of arterial inflow associated with exercise, venous occlusions were performed at rest, and following dynamic handgrip exercise at 15, 30, 45, and 60 % of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) in seven healthy males. The effect of including more than one cardiac cycle in the calculation of blood flow was assessed by comparing the cumulative blood flow over one, two, three, or four cardiac cycles. The inclusion of more than one cardiac cycle at 30 and 60 % MVC, and more than two cardiac cycles at 15 and 45 % MVC resulted in a lower blood flow compared to using only the first cardiac cycle (P < 0.05). Despite the small time interval over which arterial inflow was measured (~1 second), this did not affect the reproducibility of the technique. Reproducibility (coefficient of variation for arterial inflow over three trials) tended to be poorer at the higher workloads, although this was not significant (12.7 ± 6.6 %, 16.2 ± 7.3 %, and 22.9 ± 9.9 % for the 15, 30, and 45 % MVC workloads; P=0.102). There was also a tendency for greater reproducibility with the inclusion of more cardiac cycles at the highest workload, but this did not reach significance (P=0.070). In conclusion, when calculated over the first cardiac cycle only during venous occlusion, high rates of FBF can be measured using VOP, and this can be achieved without a significant decrease in the reproducibility of the measurement.

Latitude variation in pancreatic cancer mortality in Australia

Objectives: Ecological studies support the hypothesis that there is an association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer (PaCa) mortality, but observational studies are somewhat conflicting. We sought to contribute further data to this issue by analyzing the differences in PaCa mortality across the eastern states of Australia and investigating if there is a role of vitamin D-effective ultraviolet radiation (DUVR), which is related to latitude. ---------- Methods: Mortality data from 1968 to 2005 were sourced from the Australian General Record of Incidence and Mortality books. Negative binomial models were fitted to calculate the association between state and PaCa mortality. Clear sky monthly DUVR in each capital city was also modeled. ---------- Results: Mortality from PaCa was 10% higher in southern states than in Queensland, with those in Victoria recording the highest mortality risk (relative risk, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.17). We found a highly significant association between DUVR and PaCa mortality, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in the risk per 10-kJ/m2 increase in yearly DUVR. ---------- Conclusions: These data show an association between latitude, DUVR, and PaCa mortality. Although this study cannot be used to infer causality, it supports the need for further investigations of a possible role of vitamin D in PaCa etiology.