Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Three-dimensional printing of hierarchical and tough mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability

New-generation biomaterials for bone regenerations should be highly bioactive, resorbable and mechanically strong. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), as a novel bioactive material, has been used for the study of bone regeneration due to its excellent bioactivity, degradation and drug-delivery ability; however, how to construct a 3D MBG scaffold (including other bioactive inorganic scaffolds) for bone regeneration still maintains a significant challenge due to its/their inherit brittleness and low strength. In this brief communication, we reported a new facile method to prepare hierarchical and multifunctional MBG scaffolds with controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability for bone regeneration application by a modified 3D-printing technique using polyvinylalcohol (PVA), as a binder. The method provides a new way to solve the commonly existing issues for inorganic scaffold materials, for example, uncontrollable pore architecture, low strength, high brittleness and the requirement for the second sintering at high temperature. The obtained 3D-printing MBG scaffolds possess a high mechanical strength which is about 200 times for that of traditional polyurethane foam template-resulted MBG scaffolds. They have highly controllable pore architecture, excellent apatite-mineralization ability and sustained drug-delivery property. Our study indicates that the 3D-printed MBG scaffolds may be an excellent candidate for bone regeneration.

A hierarchical security assessment model for object-oriented programs

We present a hierarchical model for assessing an object-oriented program's security. Security is quantified using structural properties of the program code to identify the ways in which `classified' data values may be transferred between objects. The model begins with a set of low-level security metrics based on traditional design characteristics of object-oriented classes, such as data encapsulation, cohesion and coupling. These metrics are then used to characterise higher-level properties concerning the overall readability and writability of classified data throughout the program. In turn, these metrics are then mapped to well-known security design principles such as `assigning the least privilege' and `reducing the size of the attack surface'. Finally, the entire program's security is summarised as a single security index value. These metrics allow different versions of the same program, or different programs intended to perform the same task, to be compared for their relative security at a number of different abstraction levels. The model is validated via an experiment involving five open source Java programs, using a static analysis tool we have developed to automatically extract the security metrics from compiled Java bytecode.

The Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect : mechanisms and extensions

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) that was first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. It was reported that when, without vision, participants pressed a button that resulted in a probe simultaneously touching the contralateral limb at a displaced location, they perceived an apparent change in limb length. The current study did not fully replicate these earlier findings. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of the button and probe following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli that was present on both arms. However, a localised and partial medio-lateral fusion was observed, with the touched positions seeming closer together. In addition, tactile acuity was found to decrease progressively for distal positions of the upper limb and a foreshortening effect was found which may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. A number of years have elapsed since the description of the original KFE. Although frequently cited in the literature, there has been no further investigation into the mechanisms of action. The results of the current study are considered in light of more recent literature concerning intersensory integration. Future research should focus on further clarification for the specific conditions that must be present for a fusion effect to occur. Finally, this thesis will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs.

Ontology-based specific and exhaustive user profiles for constraint information fusion for multi-agents

Intelligent agents are an advanced technology utilized in Web Intelligence. When searching information from a distributed Web environment, information is retrieved by multi-agents on the client site and fused on the broker site. The current information fusion techniques rely on cooperation of agents to provide statistics. Such techniques are computationally expensive and unrealistic in the real world. In this paper, we introduce a model that uses a world ontology constructed from the Dewey Decimal Classification to acquire user profiles. By search using specific and exhaustive user profiles, information fusion techniques no longer rely on the statistics provided by agents. The model has been successfully evaluated using the large INEX data set simulating the distributed Web environment.

Multifunctional magnetic mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a hierarchical pore structure

Hyperthermia and local drug delivery have been proposed the potential therapeutic approaches for bone defects resulting from malignant bone tumors. Development of bioactive materials with magnetic and drug-delivery properties may potentially meet this target. The aim of this study is to develop a multifunctional mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG) scaffold system for both hyperthermia and local-drug delivery application potentially. For this aim, Iron (Fe) containing MBG (Fe-MBG) scaffolds with hierarchically large pores (300-500 µm) and fingerprint-like mesopores (4.5 nm) have been successfully prepared. The effect of Fe on the mesopore structure, physiochemical, magnetism, drug delivery and biological properties of MBG scaffolds has been systematically investigated. The results showed that the morphology of the mesopore varied from straight channels to curved fingerprint-like channels after incorporated parts of Fe into MBG scaffolds. The magnetism magnitude of MBG scaffolds can be tailored by controlling Fe contents. Furthermore, the incorporating of Fe into mesoporous MBG glass scaffolds enhanced the mitochondrial activity and bone-relative gene (ALP and OCN) expression of human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) on the scaffolds. The obtained Fe-MBG scaffolds also possessed high specific surface areas and sustained drug delivery. Therefore, Fe-MBG scaffolds are magnetic, degradable and bioactive. The multifunction of Fe-MBG scaffolds indicates that there is a great potential for Fe-MBG scaffolds to be used for the therapy and regeneration of large-bone defects caused by malignant bone tumors through the combination of hyperthermia, local drug delivery and their osteoconductivity.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

An indication that non-informative vision eliminates the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. The current study did not replicate these findings. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of a button pressed by the index finger of one arm and a probe touching the other, following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli present on both unseen arms. This study’s failure to replicate the widely-cited KFE as described by Craske et al. (1984) suggests that it may be contingent on several aspects of visual information, especially the availability of a specific visual reference, the role of instructions regarding gaze direction, and the potential use of a line of sight strategy when referring felt positions to an interposed surface. In addition, a foreshortening effect was found; this may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. The transformed line of sight data were regressed against the participant reported values, resulting in a slope of 1.14 (right arm) and 1.11 (left arm), and r > 0.997 for each. The study also provides additional evidence that mis-perceptions of the mediolateral position of the limbs specifically their separation and consistent with notions of Gestalt grouping, is somewhat labile and can be influenced by active motions causing touch of one limb by the other. Finally, this research will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs.