Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An exploration of NGO and media efforts to influence workplace practices and associated accountability within global supply chains

This paper investigates how social and environmental non-government organisations (NGOs) use the news media in an endeavour to create changes in the social performance and associated accountabilities of multinational buying companies’ (MBCs’) supply chains located in the developing country of Bangladesh. In this research, we explicitly seek the views of senior officers from global and local NGOs operating in Bangladesh, as well as the views of journalists from major global and local news media organisations. Our results show that social and environmental NGOs strategically use the news media in an effort to effect changes in corporate labour practices and related disclosure practices. More particularly, both the NGOs and the news media representatives stated that NGOs would be relatively powerless to create change in corporate without media coverage. This is the first known study to specifically address the joint and complementary role of NGOs and the news media in potentially creating changes in the social and environmental operating and disclosure practices of supply chains emanating from a developing country.

How innovation and R&D happen in the upstream oil & gas industry : insights from a global survey

Few would disagree that the upstream oil & gas industry has become more technology-intensive over the years. But how does innovation happen in the industry? Specifically, what ideas and inputs flow from which parts of the sector׳s value network, and where do these inputs go? And how do firms and organizations from different countries contribute differently to this process? This paper puts forward the results of a survey designed to shed light on these questions. Carried out in collaboration with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), the survey was sent to 469 executives and senior managers who played a significant role with regard to R&D and/or technology deployment in their respective business units. A total of 199 responses were received from a broad range of organizations and countries around the world. Several interesting themes and trends emerge from the results, including: (1) service companies tend to file considerably more patents per innovation than other types of organization; (2) over 63% of the deployed innovations reported in the survey originated in service companies; (3) neither universities nor government-led research organizations were considered to be valuable sources of new information and knowledge in the industry׳s R&D initiatives, and; (4) despite the increasing degree of globalization in the marketplace, the USA still plays an extremely dominant role in the industry׳s overall R&D and technology deployment activities. By providing a detailed and objective snapshot of how innovation happens in the upstream oil & gas sector, this paper provides a valuable foundation for future investigations and discussions aimed at improving how R&D and technology deployment are managed within the industry. The methodology did result in a coverage bias within the survey, however, and the limitations arising from this are explored.

Levels and trends of PBDEs and HBCDs in the global environment : status at the end of 2012

In this paper, we have compiled and reviewed the most recent literature, published from January2010 to December 2012, relating to the human exposure, environmental distribution, behaviour, fate and concentration time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) flame retardants, in order to establish their current trends and priorities for future study. Due to the large volume of literature included, we have provided full detail of the reviewed studies as Electronic Supplementary Information and here summarise the most relevant findings. Decreasing time trends for penta-mix PBDE congeners were seen for soils in northern Europe, sewage sludge in Sweden and the USA, carp from a US river, trout from three of the Great Lakes and in Arctic and UK marine mammals and many birds, but increasing time trends continue in Arctic polar bears and some birds at high trophic levels in northern Europe. This is a result of the time delay inherent in long-range atmospheric transport processes. In general, concentrations of BDE209 (the major component of the deca-mix PBDE product) are continuing to increase. Of major concern is the possible/likely debromination of the large reservoir of BDE209 in soils and sediments worldwide, to yield lower brominated congeners which are both more mobile and more toxic, and we have compiled the most recent evidence for the occurrence of this degradation process. Numerous studies reported here reinforce the importance o f this future concern. Time trends for HBCDs are mixed, with both increases and decreases evident in different matrices and locations and, notably, with increasing occurrence in birds of prey.

Age-related changes in perception of movement in driving scenes

Purpose Age-related changes in motion sensitivity have been found to relate to reductions in various indices of driving performance and safety. The aim of this study was to investigate the basis of this relationship in terms of determining which aspects of motion perception are most relevant to driving. Methods Participants included 61 regular drivers (age range 22–87 years). Visual performance was measured binocularly. Measures included visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and motion sensitivity assessed using four different approaches: (1) threshold minimum drift rate for a drifting Gabor patch, (2) Dmin from a random dot display, (3) threshold coherence from a random dot display, and (4) threshold drift rate for a second-order (contrast modulated) sinusoidal grating. Participants then completed the Hazard Perception Test (HPT) in which they were required to identify moving hazards in videos of real driving scenes, and also a Direction of Heading task (DOH) in which they identified deviations from normal lane keeping in brief videos of driving filmed from the interior of a vehicle. Results In bivariate correlation analyses, all motion sensitivity measures significantly declined with age. Motion coherence thresholds, and minimum drift rate threshold for the first-order stimulus (Gabor patch) both significantly predicted HPT performance even after controlling for age, visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. Bootstrap mediation analysis showed that individual differences in DOH accuracy partly explained these relationships, where those individuals with poorer motion sensitivity on the coherence and Gabor tests showed decreased ability to perceive deviations in motion in the driving videos, which related in turn to their ability to detect the moving hazards. Conclusions The ability to detect subtle movements in the driving environment (as determined by the DOH task) may be an important contributor to effective hazard perception, and is associated with age, and an individuals' performance on tests of motion sensitivity. The locus of the processing deficits appears to lie in first-order, rather than second-order motion pathways.

Synonymization of key pest species within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): Taxonomic changes based on a review of 20 years of integrative morphological, molecular, cytogenetic, behavioural and chemoecological data

Bactrocera papayae Drew & Hancock, Bactrocera philippinensis Drew & Hancock, Bactrocera carambolae Drew & Hancock, and Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White are four horticultural pest tephritid fruit fly species that are highly similar, morphologically and genetically, to the destructive pest, the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae). This similarity has rendered the discovery of reliable diagnostic characters problematic, which, in view of the economic importance of these taxa and the international trade implications, has resulted in ongoing difficulties for many areas of plant protection and food security. Consequently, a major international collaborative and integrated multidisciplinary research effort was initiated in 2009 to build upon existing literature with the specific aim of resolving biological species limits among B. papayae, B. philippinensis, B. carambolae, B. invadens and B. dorsalis to overcome constraints to pest management and international trade. Bactrocera philippinensis has recently been synonymized with B. papayae as a result of this initiative and this review corroborates that finding; however, the other names remain in use. While consistent characters have been found to reliably distinguish B. carambolae from B. dorsalis, B. invadens and B. papayae, no such characters have been found to differentiate the latter three putative species. We conclude that B. carambolae is a valid species and that the remaining taxa, B. dorsalis, B. invadens and B. papayae, represent the same species. Thus, we consider B. dorsalis (Hendel) as the senior synonym of B. papayae Drew and Hancock syn.n. and B. invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White syn.n. A redescription of B. dorsalis is provided. Given the agricultural importance of B. dorsalis, this taxonomic decision will have significant global plant biosecurity implications, affecting pest management, quarantine, international trade, postharvest treatment and basic research. Throughout the paper, we emphasize the value of independent and multidisciplinary tools in delimiting species, particularly in complicated cases involving morphologically cryptic taxa.

An Australian perspective on the ALI-III global principles for cooperation in International insolvency cases

In 2012, Professor Ian Fletcher (United Kingdom) and Professor Bob Wessels (The Netherlands) presented a Report to the American Law Institute and the International Insolvency Institute entitled Transnational Insolvency: Global Principles for Cooperation in International Insolvency Cases (“Global Principles”). This followed their appointment as Joint Reporters to investigate whether the essential provisions of the American Law Institute Principles of Cooperation among the North American Free Trade Agreement Countries with their annexed Guidelines Applicable to Court-to-Court Communication in Cross-border Cases may, with certain necessary modifications, be acceptable for use by jurisdictions across the world. This article comments on the Global Principles from the perspective of a jurisdiction which has adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency (“Model Law”). In 2008, Australia enacted a standalone statute, the Cross-border Insolvency Act 2008 (Cth) to which is annexed the Model Law. In that process, it made minimal changes to the Model Law text. Against the background of the 2008 Act, related procedural laws as well as Australia’s general insolvency statutes and recent cross-border insolvency jurisprudence, this article comments on the potential relevance of the Transnational Insolvency Report as a point of reference for Australian courts and insolvency administrators when addressing international insolvency cases. By comparing the Global Principles with the Model Law as closely adopted in Australia, this analysis is a resource for other Model Law jurisdictions when considering the potential relevance of the Global Principles for their own international insolvency practice.

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

The Why, What, and How of Global Biodiversity Indicators Beyond the 2010 Target

The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

The contribution of ISO 14067 to the evolution of global greenhouse gas standards—A review

Due to the increasing recognition of global climate change, the building and construction industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions. A central issue in striving towards reduced carbon emissions is the need for a practicable and meaningful yardstick for assessing and communicating greenhouse gas (GHG) results. ISO 14067 was published by the International Organization for Standardization in May 2013. By providing specific requirements in the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, the standard clarifies the GHG assessment in the aspects of choosing system boundaries and simulating use and end-of-life phases when quantifying carbon footprint of products (CFPs). More importantly, the standard, for the first time, provides step-to-step guidance and standardized template for communicating CFPs in the form of CFP external communication report, CFP performance tracking report, CFP declaration and CFP label. ISO 14067 therefore makes a valuable contribution to GHG quantification and transparent communication and comparison of CFPs. In addition, as cradle-to-grave should be used as the system boundary if use and end-of-life phases can be simulated, ISO 14067 will hopefully promote the development and implementation of simulation technologies, with Building Information Modelling (BIM) in particular, in the building and construction industry.

BIM and PLM: Comparing and learning from changes to professional practice across sectors

This paper explores the effects of PLM and BIM on professional practice. It draws on existing literature documenting the experiences of both communities of practice to explain shifts in professional boundaries. A review of case study based literature compares the nature of changes triggered by PLM and BIM relative to the new activities, roles/responsibilities and knowledge competencies, and supply chain relationships. The paper synthesises these changes and reflects PLM and BIM experiences against each other so as to contrast the continuing evolution of professional practice and lessons learned.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Changes in anatomical brain connectivity between ages 12 and 30: A HARDI study of 467 adolescents and adults

Graph theory can be applied to matrices that represent the brain's anatomical connections, to better understand global properties of anatomical networks, such as their clustering, efficiency and "small-world" topology. Network analysis is popular in adult studies of connectivity, but only one study - in just 30 subjects - has examined how network measures change as the brain develops over this period. Here we assessed the developmental trajectory of graph theory metrics of structural brain connectivity in a cross-sectional study of 467 subjects, aged 12 to 30. We computed network measures from 70×70 connectivity matrices of fiber density generated using whole-brain tractography in 4-Tesla 105-gradient high angular resolution diffusion images (HARDI). We assessed global efficiency and modularity, and both age and age 2 effects were identified. HARDI-based connectivity maps are sensitive to the remodeling and refinement of structural brain connections as the human brain develops.

Scenario planning and emerging global trends for the future of roads and automobile transport

Roads and road infrastructure will be faced with multiple challenges over the coming decades – challenges that in many ways bear little resemblance to those previously faced - and as such will require new approaches. The opportunity exists to transform the way road infrastructure is conceived and constructed, as a key part of the process of assisting society to respond to climate change and reduce other environmental pressures. Innovations in road construction, use and management in order to manage these changes can now be seen. Scenario planning is one tool that can take into account emerging challenges, develop or adopt new approaches, and thus help this transformation to occur. The paper explores scenario planning methodologies, global innovations and trends in road construction and maintenance and the findings from stakeholder workshops in Brisbane and Perth. It highlights key opportunities for road agencies to use scenarios to enable planning that, in the face of future uncertainties, facilitates appropriate responses.

ACE research briefing paper 009: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: GEM Australia - 2014 National Report

Most policymakers and academics agree that entrepreneurship is critical to the development and wellbeing of society. Entrepreneurs create jobs. They drive and shape innovation, thereby speeding up structural changes in the economy. By introducing new competition they contribute indirectly to increased productivity and overall economic activity. Entrepreneurship is thus a catalyst for economic growth and national competitiveness. In 2014, the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)conducted its 15th annual survey of the rate and profile of entrepreneurial activity around the globe. GEM interviewed over 206,000 adults aged 18–64 in 70 economies, spanning diverse geographies and a range of development levels. The Australian Centre for Entrepreneurship Research (ACE) participated as the Australian GEM partner, surveying 2,177 Australian adults. This report provides a summary of entrepreneurship in Australia as measured by GEM, and benchmarks this against other countries. We compare the level of entrepreneurship in the population across different phases of the entrepreneurial process, and provide a profile of some key characteristics of entrepreneurs and the businesses they are starting. We also report on some of the institutional and framework conditions that support entrepreneurship.