One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Global forest governance

This book identifies the fundamental legal principles and the governance requirements of sustainable forest management. An analytical model for assessing forest regulation is created which identifies the doctrinal concepts that underpin forest regulation (justice, property, sovereignty and governance). It also highlights the dominant public international institutions involved in forest regulation (UNFF, UNFCCC and WB) which is followed by analysis of non-state international forest regulation (forest certification and ecosystem markets). The book concludes by making a number of practical recommendations for reform of global forest governance arrangements and suggested reforms for individual international forest institutions.

Opportunities for forest finance under the International climate change regime

The international climate change regime has the potential to increase revenue available for forest restoration projects in Commonwealth nations. There are three mechanisms which could be used to fund forest projects aimed at forest conservation, forest restoration and sustainable forest management. The first forest funding opportunity arises under the clean development mechanism, a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The clean development mechanism allows Annex I parties (industrialised nations) to invest in emission reduction activities in non-Annex 1 (developing countries) and the establishment of forest sinks is an eligible clean development mechanism activity. Secondly, parties to the Kyoto Protocol are able to include sustainable forest management activities in their national carbon accounting. The international rules concerning this are called the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Guidelines. Thirdly, it is anticipated that at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations that a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) instrument will be created. This will provide a direct funding mechanism for those developing countries with tropical forests. Payments made under a REDD arrangement will be based upon the developing country with tropical forest cover agreeing to protect and conserve a designated forest estate. These three funding options available under the international climate change regime demonstrate that there is potential for forest finance within the regime. These opportunities are however hindered by a number of technical and policy barriers which prevent the ability of the regime to significantly increase funding for forest projects. There are two types of carbon markets, compliance carbon markets (Kyoto based) and voluntary carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets are more flexible then compliance markets and as such offer potential to increase revenue available for sustainable forest projects.

Australia and Forest Carbon Partnerships : Indigenous Land Rights

One of the ways in which indigenous communities seek justice is through the formal recognition of their sovereign rights to land. Such recognition allows indigenous groups to maintain a physical and spiritual connection with their land and continue customary management of their land. Indigenous groups world over face significant hurdles in getting their customary rights to land recognized by legal systems. One of the main difficulties for indigenous groups in claiming customary land rights is the existence of a range of conflicting legal entitlements attaching to the land in question. In Australia, similar to New Zealand and Canada legal recognition to customary land is recognized through a grant of native title rights or through the establishment of land use agreement. In other jurisdictions such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea a form of customary land title has been preserved and is recognized by the legal system. The implementation of REDD+ and other forms of forest carbon investment activities compounds the already complex arrangements surrounding legal recognition of customary land rights. Free, prior and informed consent of indigenous groups is essential for forest carbon investment on customary land. The attainment of such consent in practice remains challenging due to the number of conflicting interests often associated with forested land. This paper examines Australia’s experience in recongising indigenous land rights under its International Forest Carbon Initiative and under its domestic Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act (Australia) 2011. Australia’s International Forest Carbon initiative has a budget of $273 million dollars. In 2008 the governments of Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership Agreement. This paper will examine the indigenous land tenure and justice lessons learned from the implementation of the Kalimantan Forest and Climate Partnership (KFCP). The KFCP is $30 million dollar project taking place over 120,000 hectares of degraded and forested peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The KFCP project site contains seven villages of the Dayak Ngdu indigenous people. In 2011 Australia established a domestic Forest Carbon Initiative, which seeks to provide new economic opportunities for farmers, forest growers and indigenous landholders while helping the environmental by reducing carbon pollution. This paper will explore the manner in which indigenous people are able to participate within these scheme noting the limits and opportunities in deriving co-benefits for indigenous people in Australia under this scheme.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

Cryptic diversity and evolutionary relationships among Australian closed-forest Melomys (Rodentia: Muridae) and related Australo-Papuan mosaic-tailed rats

This thesis investigates patterns of evolution in a group of native Australo-Papuan rodents. Past climatic change and associated sea level fluctuations, and fragmentation of wet forests in eastern Australia has facilitated rapid radiation, diversification and speciation in this group. This study adds to our understanding of the evolution of Australia’s rainforest fauna and describes the evolutionary relationships of a new genus of Australian rodent.

Evolutionary genetics and human assisted movement of a globally invasive pest (Russian wheat aphid : Diuraphis noxia)

This PhD study has examined the population genetics of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA, Diuraphis noxia), one of the world’s most invasive agricultural pests, throughout its native and introduced global range. Firstly, this study investigated the geographic distribution of genetic diversity within and among RWA populations in western China. Analysis of mitochondrial data from 18 sites provided evidence for the long-term existence and expansion of RWAs in western China. The results refute the hypothesis that RWA is an exotic species only present in China since 1975. The estimated date of RWA expansion throughout western China coincides with the debut of wheat domestication and cultivation practices in western Asia in the Holocene. It is concluded that western China represents the limit of the far eastern native range of this species. Analysis of microsatellite data indicated high contemporary gene flow among northern populations in western China, while clear geographic isolation between northern and southern populations was identified across the Tianshan mountain range and extensive desert regions. Secondly, this study analyzed the worldwide pathway of invasion using both microsatellite and endosymbiont genetic data. Individual RWAs were obtained from native populations in Central Asia and the Middle East and invasive populations in Africa and the Americas. Results indicated two pathways of RWA invasion from 1) Syria in the Middle East to North Africa and 2) Turkey to South Africa, Mexico and then North and South America. Very little clone diversity was identified among invasive populations suggesting that a limited founder event occurred together with predominantly asexual reproduction and rapid population expansion. The most likely explanation for the rapid spread (within two years) from South Africa to the New World is by human movement, probably as a result of the transfer of wheat breeding material. Furthermore, the mitochondrial data revealed the presence of a universal haplotype and it is proposed that this haplotype is representative of a wheat associated super-clone that has gained dominance worldwide as a result of the widespread planting of domesticated wheat. Finally, this study examined salivary gland gene diversity to determine whether a functional basis for RWA invasiveness could be identified. Peroxidase DNA sequence data were obtained for a selection of worldwide RWA samples. Results demonstrated that most native populations were polymorphic while invasive populations were monomorphic, supporting previous conclusions relating to demographic founder effects in invasive populations. Purifying selection most likely explains the existence of a universal allele present in Middle Eastern populations, while balancing selection was evident in East Asian populations. Selection acting on the peroxidase gene may provide an allele-dependent advantage linked to the successful establishment of RWAs on wheat, and ultimately their invasion potential. In conclusion, this study is the most comprehensive molecular genetic investigation of RWA population genetics undertaken to date and provides significant insights into the source and pathway of global invasion and the potential existence of a wheat-adapted genotype that has colonised major wheat growing countries worldwide except for Australia. This research has major biosecurity implications for Australia’s grain industry.

Learning in Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): a new look at the behaviour and control of a polyphagous pest

Recent experimental evidence has shown that learning occurs in the host selection behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), one of the world‘s most important agricultural pests. This paper discusses how the occurrence of learning changes our understanding of the host selection behaviour of this polyphagous moth. Host preferences determined from previous laboratory studies may be vastly different from preferences exhibited by moths in the field, where the abundance of particular hosts may be more likely to determine host preference. In support of this prediction, a number of field studies have shown that the ‘attractiveness’ of different hosts for H. armigera oviposition may depend on the relative abundance of these host species. Insect learning may play a fundamental role in the design and application of present and future integrated pest management strategies such as the use of host volatiles, trap crops and resistant crop varieties for monitoring and controlling this important pest species

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Mating compatibility among four pest members of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly species complex (Diptera : Tephritidae)

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), Bactrocera papayae Drew & Hancock, Bactrocera philippinensis Drew & Hancock, and Bactrocera carambolae Drew & Hancock are pest members within the B. dorsalis species complex of tropical fruit flies. The species status of these taxa is unclear and this confounds quarantine, pest management, and general research. Mating studies carried out under uniform experimental conditions are required as part of resolving their species limits. These four taxa were collected from the wild and established as laboratory cultures for which we subsequently determined levels of prezygotic compatibility, assessed by field cage mating trials for all pair-wise combinations. We demonstrate random mating among all pair-wise combinations involving B. dorsalis, B. papayae, and B. philippinensis. B. carambolae was relatively incompatible with each of these species as evidenced by nonrandom mating for all crosses. Reasons for incompatibility involving B. carambolae remain unclear; however, we observed differences in the location of couples in the field cage for some comparisons. Alongside other factors such as pheromone composition or other courtship signals, this may lead to reduced interspecific mating compatibility with B. carambolae. These data add to evidence that B. dorsalis, B. papayae, and B. philippinensis represent the same biological species, while B. carambolae remains sufficiently different to maintain its current taxonomic identity. This poses significant implications for this group's systematics, impacting on pest management, and international trade.

Multi-gene phylogenetic analysis of south-east Asian pest members of the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae) does not support current taxonomy

Bactrocera dorsalis sensu stricto, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. carambolae are serious pest fruit fly species of the B. dorsalis complex that predominantly occur in south-east Asia and the Pacific. Identifying molecular diagnostics has proven problematic for these four taxa, a situation that cofounds biosecurity and quarantine efforts and which may be the result of at least some of these taxa representing the same biological species. We therefore conducted a phylogenetic study of these four species (and closely related outgroup taxa) based on the individuals collected from a wide geographic range; sequencing six loci (cox1, nad4-3′, CAD, period, ITS1, ITS2) for approximately 20 individuals from each of 16 sample sites. Data were analysed within maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic frameworks for individual loci and concatenated data sets for which we applied multiple monophyly and species delimitation tests. Species monophyly was measured by clade support, posterior probability or bootstrap resampling for Bayesian and likelihood analyses respectively, Rosenberg's reciprocal monophyly measure, P(AB), Rodrigo's (P(RD)) and the genealogical sorting index, gsi. We specifically tested whether there was phylogenetic support for the four 'ingroup' pest species using a data set of multiple individuals sampled from a number of populations. Based on our combined data set, Bactrocera carambolae emerges as a distinct monophyletic clade, whereas B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are unresolved. These data add to the growing body of evidence that B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are the same biological species, which poses consequences for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Beyond compliance : project on an integrated systems approach for pest risk management in South East Asia

The Beyond Compliance project, which began in July 2011 with funding from the Standards and Trade Development Facility for 2 years, aims to enhance competency and confidence in the South East Asian sub-region by applying a Systems Approach for pest risk management. The Systems Approach involves the use of integrated measures, at least two of which are independent, that cumulatively reduce the risk of introducing exotic pests through trade. Although useful in circumstances where single measures are inappropriate or unavailable, the Systems Approach is inherently more complicated than single-measure approaches, which may inhibit its uptake. The project methodology is to take prototype decision-support tools, such as Control Point-Bayesian Networks (CP-BN), developed in recent plant health initiatives in other regions, including the European PRATIQUE project, and to refine them within this sub-regional context. Case studies of high-priority potential agricultural trade will be conducted by National Plant Protection Organizations of participating South East Asian countries in trials of the tools, before further modifications. Longer term outcomes may include: more robust pest risk management in the region (for exports and imports); greater inclusion of stakeholders in development of pest risk management plans; increased confidence in trade negotiations; and new opportunities for trade.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.